I would love an economic crash, it would spice Runescape up a little.

 

I too, am tired of hearing posts about the "economy" as it it was some sort of little dog we had to take care of. But nope, it fixes itself all the time, it's actually a cat that looks after itself very well.

if it was crashing, rares wouldn't be going up.

Its not, but they arnt, and havnt been for months.

 

 

 

Erm... Yes they are?

 

 

 

They're 25.2 now. They were 24mil- a week ago.

It wont. I wont go into a full explanation, I've done that on other threads before. As for the "Jagex is god, they will make the economy crash" concept, Jagex is smart and wants business, so they try to remain as laissiez - faire as possible towards the in-game economy. If they tampered with it, many players would wind up playing less or for shorter amounts of time, or even quitting. Although holding a laissiez-faire is virtually impossible in runescape due to updates, when they release new updates they attempt to lessen the economic impact, as they have done before [although construction is a contradiction, but it supports my theory that the economy is stable]. Anyone predicting a crash or some sort of economic shift probably does not know very much at all about the laws of economy, and have not put very much into their claim.

You mean du laissez-faire.

It'd probably be a physical impossibility to "crash" the market, unless every single rare that was tradeable was made untradeable. Smaller items, such as 3rd Age, Treasure Trail items, Dragon armor, Barrows armor, and raw materials only have a minor overall effect on the economy, and unless everyone was buying every last one of these items in bulk and no one selling, the economy would survive.

 

 

 

I don't understand why people insist the Phats and rares make up "most of the enconomy." It's been said by many RS Economists and Merchants (Such as R2-Pleasant) that, while, yes, the rares make up a large chunk of it, they are not the majority of the economy.

 

 

 

Raw materials such a logs, fish, ores and runes (p ess mined and made intro runes) make up the majority of the economy. Then you've got the amount of Abyssal Whips, Dragon Chainbodies, etc going into the economy as well. Just the other day I got THREE Abyssal Whips during a single slayer task of Abyssal Demons and sold all of them for a total of 4,800,000 Gp. That's money that basically appeared out of thin air and into my inventory, but somewhere, that cash has to be made up for. We can assume the gp came into the economy through alching.

 

 

 

Just think about it. There are 143 worlds on Runescape, and, on average during the summer months particularly, there are an average of 1500 people on each world. If even 500 people on each server are doing SOMETHING that brings items or matierals into the game, you can assume that 70,000 or so people are bringing items into the game every second. That adds up. Lets just assume that even only 10,000 of those people are shark fishing. On average, each person will get 100-150 shark an hour. That's 1,000,000-1,500,000 Shark being brought into RS an HOUR. That's roughly 900,000,000-1,350,000,000 GP's worth an hour...which is far more than all rares could rise in price a day.

 

 

 

So...No, it is NOT possible for the economy to "crash."

 

 

 

The only way this could happen is if Alching did not exist, shops no longer bought items for gp, and monsters, npcs, etc stopped dropping gp. Eventually, more items would be brought into the economy than gp, and boom: unstable economic crash. This would just never happen unless Jagex went insane.

There are only 3 things in RS that will remain constant:

 

Iron ores

 

Dragon Scimitars

 

Half Keys

 

 

 

Everything else can change, and when some people lose money during an investment, they panic, and complain on how the economy is crashing. There are problems with the economy though. Most materials drop in prices except Rares, which rise. This makes it harder for rares to obtain, there fore, if they maintain a higher price tag, then they may be nearly unobtainable, and be useless. That is when the economy will crash, but I still have a few years to see that happen.

 

 

 

Only things that can be somewhat stable are items that can be produced in masses and that are already so low that you can think wether to alch it or sell for a small profit. Good examples are complete bows and many rune items. Raw materials might swing because of updates, but they won't get at least any higher than they currently are if we don't get any dramatic updates, pure ess was like this.

 

 

 

Iron ore price could change a lot in no time: we'd just need a mining/smithing update (new ore? new ways to train?) and there it would be. For scimitar the price could drop and demand really dive if we got a new weapon which had str option and was more powerful or had same stats but wouldn't require a long and hard quest. Key halves could pop up if new item(s) was added to the chest or we got new jewelry which requires a dragonstone, were useful and you should stock up them like glories.

it's lasseiz-faire i think. and yes, jagex wouldn't dare tamper with the economy, new updates screw it up enough, we all saw what happened with the acheivement diary reward for karamja. as for the economy crashing, it's run by 10 year olds, what would crash a normal market would only make it stronger.

There are only 3 things in RS that will remain constant:

 

Iron ores

 

Dragon Scimitars

 

Half Keys

 

 

 

Everything else can change, and when some people lose money during an investment, they panic, and complain on how the economy is crashing. There are problems with the economy though. Most materials drop in prices except Rares, which rise. This makes it harder for rares to obtain, there fore, if they maintain a higher price tag, then they may be nearly unobtainable, and be useless. That is when the economy will crash, but I still have a few years to see that happen.

 

 

 

i think all that is wrong... iron ores have been anywhere from 20gp to 100gp, dragon scimmys have been 80k-120k, and half keys use to be 50k ea, now their like 25-30k ea... and rares have gone down in the past, (santas were 25-30m, then went down to below 18m)

 

 

 

on topic: i dont think the econimy will crash, unless Andrew dies and leaves a 5 year old in charge of runescape.

lol the price of items is the economy and bots destroyed it... we are now coming back.... finally the price of sharks went up and etc! thats our economy is items, items, and more items!!!

the economy is not crashing, there's really nothing to have caused it. some idiots thought that the login servers screwing up would mean that the economy would fail. these are the same people who faked the 6/6/06 massacre (the actual event was not as bad as it is said) in w66 and claimed that {famous person of that event} had come back for vengeance.

 

 

 

i'm sorry if i'm rambling, there's almost nothing i hate more than rumor-spreading and ignorance...

We'll have people throwing themselves out of windows, suiciding at the kalphite queen, stealing.

There are only 3 things in RS that will remain constant:

 

Iron ores

 

Dragon Scimitars

 

Half Keys

 

 

 

Everything else can change, and when some people lose money during an investment, they panic, and complain on how the economy is crashing. There are problems with the economy though. Most materials drop in prices except Rares, which rise. This makes it harder for rares to obtain, there fore, if they maintain a higher price tag, then they may be nearly unobtainable, and be useless. That is when the economy will crash, but I still have a few years to see that happen.

 

 

 

i think all that is wrong... iron ores have been anywhere from 20gp to 100gp, dragon scimmys have been 80k-120k, and half keys use to be 50k ea, now their like 25-30k ea... and rares have gone down in the past, (santas were 25-30m, then went down to below 18m)

 

 

 

on topic: i dont think the econimy will crash, unless Andrew dies and leaves a 5 year old in charge of runescape.

 

How can I put this? GOT TOLD.

 

 

 

On topic~

 

The economy is not run by 10 year olds. The majority of people who play rs are between 15 and 21.

 

 

 

Anyway, rares will always get more expensive in the long run unless jagex releases more masks/santas/phats.

 

 

 

If the economy was really going to crash, Jagex would do something about it. And what would be so bad about the economy crashing? Define crashing. I dont see what the rs economy crasing would be in the first place. IT'S A GAME.

~It cannot straight-out crash. It will fluxuate (sometimes greatly) due to Autoers, ect., but it will never completely and totally crash.~

I saw a few rabble rousers in Edgeville Bank that really messed up the one area of the market I flourish in: farming. Some guys were using autotalkers to say "Everyone raise the price of ranarr seeds to 40k! they need us!" Or something like that. My main source of income is making prayer potions, which come from my purchase and growth of Ranarr seeds. And since then, it's been incredibly hard for me to find a buyer for my pots. I'm not exactly sure how higher price seeds are related to nobody buying potions, but it is happening is some small ways.

You mean du laissez-faire.

 

No no.. it's laissez-faire.

 

 

 

Interesting points so far :-k . I still hold that the only way for the economy to "crash" would be for Jagex to try an make it crash (i.e., remove alching); I can't see a single other way for the economy to "crash".

 

 

 

Not even if rares were removed. The economy would probably correct itself within a week, even for something that appears as drastic as that.

There are in my opinion a few things that would cause a crash.

 

First being a new skill that requires heavily on resources such as Con. After the release of it there was a huge decline in the rares market and many goods were sold cheaper to buy planks. It was a decent drain on the economy. Causing a apparent crash in the rare market.

 

Next would be an abused glitch such as the phat dupping that happened years ago and phats were nothing to buy. This was the closest thing to a true market crash RS has ever seen many people lost tons of money due to their investments in rares.

 

Last would be a lack of anything new to spice up the market. If there are no new items to cause people to spend their money on then after all the rich people have bought the items they start to drop so that the supply of them is still being sold. If items that people hunt drop in prices then they make less money for them so its harder to get rich. If less people are making the money to buy the rares the rares have to drop so that they can meet the demand. This just happens till a minimum price is reached. This however doesn't mean the market is crashing just reaching an equilibrium but since prices are still decreasing people will see it as a crash. The new release of the dragon bow and other items will probably spark the market up and we will see a increase in rares since those that can get the dragon bows will be making a lot of money for their time thus having more money to spend on a rare.

 

So there you have it my longer than planned reason for why people say the market might be crashing. But just a side note in reality there is never going to be a market crash in RS a real market crash would mean everything dropped to nearly no money and we lost most of our possessions. Since when you buy something in RS you can't use credit it is impossible for you to just lose it. Plus high alchemy gives a bench mark price that is the absolute minimum where in a real market things can always become cheaper. The reason people call it a market crash is that most items are decreasing in price but this isn't a crash just a move towards market equilibrium.

They think the economy is crashing because they think a massive drop in prices is a crash. Which it isn't. It's a drop in inflation (Which is GOOD by the way.)

 

 

 

They're stupid, and need to grow up some and take an intro to economics class of some sort. :)

it's not only supply and demand that rules the market, it's also the amount of money that's in the game. that is why a country shouldn't let an uncontrolled (unbackupped) amount of money access the economy. then the relative value of goods versus money rises and so the prices rise too -> inflation.

 

 

 

high level alchemy has its good and its bad sides. on the one hand it keeps a minimum value level for goods and makes possible money sources ever existing, on the other hand it creates too much money in the game. the only method to keep prices at a relatively stable level is to actively drain cash from the game (onyx jewellery, barrows armor repair, skill capes, cutting logs to planks eg.). then you have money bound in items that aren't tradeable anymore or wasted a lot of money compared to its value and the amount of money ingame keeps being inflationary but economically stable (underlying certain ups and downs of course).

 

 

 

adding new items to the game helps too of course, ppl will concentrate their money on getting them (saving up). this keeps the prices of discontinued items relatively low.

 

 

 

on the long run, the discontinued items keep being the only valuable things in runescape that gain value because of the fact that daily some are droppign out, all other items will increas in numbers over time.

 

 

 

if you think back to the beginning of rs2, 2 dragon med helmets bought you a party hat, now you need like 300 dmeds for such a deal.

 

 

 

that's what the runescape economy will be most likely from now on (older, more common items leveling down to their highalch value), but i can't see any real dangers for the market to crash really.

 

 

 

best regards, Herf

Boys and girls its called a market correction.

 

 

 

The underlying fundermentals of the market system have changed and the price level changes.

 

 

 

this can be for numerous reasons. For instance the change in the dynamics of the supply and demand matrix, of vaious items.

 

 

 

Inflation is the persistance rising change in the price level. Normal market systems combat this with interest rates on capital but the darn RS bank dont seem to be doing much investing in new companies in the RS world to be able to aford to give us savers interest. perhaps they should start investing in the dwarf mining company in kelgrim.

 

 

 

Anyway the RS economy runs the same way as a normal real life one, with jagex being the governement. It is therefore intervetionist, and sets policy. No more holiday items for example. Demand pull inflation on the remaining items causing them to rise. However introducing construction, the money supply decreased so did the purchasing power of us Runescarians, so sellers dropped prices to meet the new demand level.

 

 

 

Well thats my opinion

 

 

 

Mozy

Yep. A few million may be lost on rares sometime, but the economy can never truly crash without Jagex allowing it.

bots often cause crashes in certain markets

 

 

 

like the recent shark crash.

 

 

 

The currently predicted economic crash is all down to dark bows.

 

 

 

A similar situation arose with whips and construction

 

 

 

1) New GOOD weapon = big hype and craze about it

 

2) Limited numbers have the level high enough to get it = limited supply

 

3) Huge demand for the weapon = huge prices

 

4) Normal players wanting the weapon need fast cash = market flooded with all the stockpiled logs ores runes essence and rares of many people

 

5) Over supply of everything = price plummets

 

 

 

It will only be short term thou as:

 

1) Hype dies = demand drops

 

2) Flood dries up back to stock piles = prices rise

 

4) More people get level = supply grows

 

 

 

 

 

If your smart upon dark bow release instead of going to try and buy it (if you not gotlvl 90 slayer) you will place yourself firmly in fally and throw all your money at the normal rares etc as their prices drop.

 

 

 

Give it a week or 2 and when prices are re-balanced you'll of made huge profits

 

Give it another month or so and you'll have more than enough for the now cheaper dark bow.

It's hardly appropriate to call the recent drop in shark prices a "crash."

It's hardly appropriate to call the recent drop in shark prices a "crash."

 

 

 

it was a crash for the shark market given sharks dropped for 900 - 1k ea to 400 -500gp ea in space of about 1 week

 

 

 

I would call halving a value a crash for that market

it crashed once before after the phat dupe... but i dont see how it could crash NOW

 

 

 

Lmao, you do know that was fake........

it crashed once before after the phat dupe... but i dont see how it could crash NOW

 

 

 

Lmao, you do know that was fake........

 

 

 

there was a phat dupe WAY back in rsc which was very very real