alwin_loser Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 i now killed 300 black dragons( i count the hides too) My friend says to stop, but if i stop everything is for nothing.... So i keep killing them. And praying for a better drop than a mith 2H, yes thats my best drop from 300 drags-.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rareghoul1 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 these are real results right? if they're fake there's no point to it. You're missing the point. It is a simulation. And it's not pointless. a simulation could be pointless because we don't know if there's a set limit of kills before you can get an item. plus, he doesn't really know the odds of the draconic visage being dropped. these are what scientists call "variables" and they do not conduct an experiment, or in this case simulation, until they have all variables under control, except for one, in this case, the number of people in the test. you can't get accurate results without having the variables under control, the simulation is pointless because it doesn't have them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadow93 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 this might explain why i havn't gotten a d chain in about 70k+ dust devils Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj926 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 these are real results right? if they're fake there's no point to it. You're missing the point. It is a simulation. And it's not pointless. a simulation could be pointless because we don't know if there's a set limit of kills before you can get an item. plus, he doesn't really know the odds of the draconic visage being dropped. these are what scientists call "variables" and they do not conduct an experiment, or in this case simulation, until they have all variables under control, except for one, in this case, the number of people in the test. you can't get accurate results without having the variables under control, the simulation is pointless because it doesn't have them. He's just stressing a point. No, it does not give solid facts. He's just basically saying what should be obvious, and that is that it's all about luck. This "study" isn't supposed to prove anything. It's supposed to tell you that sometimes you just won't get a drop of a goblin armor from a goblin after 800 kills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweety6556 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 I remember a mod posting that drops are like 2 roulette wheels. The chance of you getting a rare drop is one number on the first roulette wheel. If you get that number, then it proceeds into the second roulette wheel which is full of rare drops by the monster, some more valuable, some less valuable. The chance of you getting a rarer rare is less likely(of course) What the ring of wealth does is make it more likely for you to get the rare on the first wheel. just what i've heard. thats what i would think. it makes alot of sense really. my two cents :wink: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highlanders Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Thing is, there's no unlucky or lucky persons in drop, overall someone can be lucky or not, but at every monster you kill your luck can change. 2480+ total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blacksimon Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 The rarley praying may have something to do with it. Imma try some trips and just stand there wasting 28 pray pots, see if it works. and btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rareghoul1 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 these are real results right? if they're fake there's no point to it. You're missing the point. It is a simulation. And it's not pointless. a simulation could be pointless because we don't know if there's a set limit of kills before you can get an item. plus, he doesn't really know the odds of the draconic visage being dropped. these are what scientists call "variables" and they do not conduct an experiment, or in this case simulation, until they have all variables under control, except for one, in this case, the number of people in the test. you can't get accurate results without having the variables under control, the simulation is pointless because it doesn't have them. He's just stressing a point. No, it does not give solid facts. He's just basically saying what should be obvious, and that is that it's all about luck. This "study" isn't supposed to prove anything. It's supposed to tell you that sometimes you just won't get a drop of a goblin armor from a goblin after 800 kills. wait a minute, some people don't know that? :shock: wow... people have gotten stupid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monkeyboo2 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 It's quiet easy to make a random number generator... no need for said "top-model random simulation module", although it does sound cool. :lol: I'd hate to be the last 5 people well then you'd hate to be me. Yeah...Some people just go out of their way to ruin other peoples fun.Sounds like Jagex to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monkeyboo2 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 It's quiet easy to make a random number generator... no need for said "top-model random simulation module", although it does sound cool. :lol: I'd hate to be the last 5 people well then you'd hate to be me.. i have equally bad luck. Although it doesnt sound much, out of 100 dragon implings, 0 of them have given me drag arrows/darts which are meant to be common drops with like odds of 1/2. Lesson to be learnt: do not be me. Yeah...Some people just go out of their way to ruin other peoples fun.Sounds like Jagex to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sly_Wizard Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Some players (Such as myself) get stuck on an 'unlucky' algorithm, and hence we never get drops. It's as simple as that, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pure_fett Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Some players (Such as myself) get stuck on an 'unlucky' algorithm, and hence we never get drops. It's as simple as that, really. yeah im one, as far as iron drags go (1k kills nothing drag, or 150 kills after visage came out. best drop is half key) i don't play psykick anymore... i play 2ed: "pure fett" 26081 to get 99 herblore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rareghoul1 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 Some players (Such as myself) get stuck on an 'unlucky' algorithm, and hence we never get drops. It's as simple as that, really. it happens to all of us at times. too bad for me it's been all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aj926 Posted June 21, 2007 Share Posted June 21, 2007 these are real results right? if they're fake there's no point to it. You're missing the point. It is a simulation. And it's not pointless. a simulation could be pointless because we don't know if there's a set limit of kills before you can get an item. plus, he doesn't really know the odds of the draconic visage being dropped. these are what scientists call "variables" and they do not conduct an experiment, or in this case simulation, until they have all variables under control, except for one, in this case, the number of people in the test. you can't get accurate results without having the variables under control, the simulation is pointless because it doesn't have them. He's just stressing a point. No, it does not give solid facts. He's just basically saying what should be obvious, and that is that it's all about luck. This "study" isn't supposed to prove anything. It's supposed to tell you that sometimes you just won't get a drop of a goblin armor from a goblin after 800 kills. wait a minute, some people don't know that? :shock: wow... people have gotten stupid... If you look at the first 2 pages, you'll notice a lot of people who seem to think that this topic is an actual expiriment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkan420 Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 I can't understand why people can't accept that it's random. It'd probably (I say probably because I know jack about runescript) take more work to program every spawn for every monster to keep track of how many have spawned so it can "release" the item than to just give the monster itself (meaning that monster "code" for every monster, regardless of spawn point) a 1/3000 chance of dropping it. Not only that, but if there really were some sort of "formula" to the game, it'd entirely remove the point in hunting for items. In other words, someone could go out and start kill wyyverns knowing that every kill is bringing them closer to the drop, instead of crossing their fingers every time. And eventually people would start camping and counting to get that last kill, which would just take the fun out of rare drops all together. Think of it like this. There's 3,000 upside-down cups, one of which has a rubber ball in it, you get to choose ONE CUP and hope for the ball. That cup doesn't get removed if it's not the right one, but the ball is moved to a different cup when you aren't looking and you try again. Chances are very, very, very good that you won't get that ball any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deciever2 Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 This is not good news for rare item hunters :cry: Dragon Drops: D spear x 2, D skirt, D half-shield, D axe, D 2hBarrows Rewards: Ahrims hood, Karil's Coif, half key x 6, D med, torags legs, veracs flail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profins Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 Not much of a point..All these rates etc are mainly only theories..Only ones who knows about drop rates etc are people who work at Jagex Towers. But I kinda agree, there are people who are lucky as hell, and there are people who are unlucky. Just unlucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidnightHarvester Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 The author of this topic has made a very rational and logical post. To put it simply, open up notepad or get a piece of ... i think its called paper ... and make a list numbered 1-100. After each line number, write down either heads or tails. When you have done this get a quarter, game token, nickel whatever and flip it 100 times and write the results down to what you have wrote. The result is NOT random, each time you flip the coin you have a .5 chance of getting either heads or tails. If you get the first flip wrong and guess heads when in all actuality tails comes up, that outcome makes NO difference what so ever in what the next flip will give you. I saw somebody a few pages ago write that the author was not being accurate (paraphrased) because he didn't account for big words such as standard deviation. Geltar is completely unable to account for "standard deviation" because he does NOT know exactly what the chances are for each drop, so there is no way he can tell you how tight or stretched the curve is for the normal. I think this is a very good insight for players to read into and better understand what a random drop is. The chance is NEVER truly random, the chance is what Jagex and the developers have coded into Java. The factor lots of players seem to think is random is what part of that x axis they are going to fall on... will it be the X percent who get it in under 50 drops or the Z percent that get it in their 10000th attempt? But it is never RANDOM! You will always have the same chance of getting a rare drop as every single person next to you... always. There is no conspiracy. Geltar, my applause goes to you to try to get this understanding out the the masses. I "support" your experiments. :thumbsup: Hours Available (EST|GMT-5) Mon-Fri: 7-11pm | Sat-Sun: Throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saru Inc Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 I'm that unlucky guy with 12,000+ kills no visage. I'm so unlucky at RS, I don't even try to get the new stuff that comes out. I have all the 99s, and have been playing since 2001. Comped 4/30/15 My Araxxi Kills: 459::Araxxi Drops(KC):Araxxi Hilts: 4x Eye (14/126/149/459), Web - (100) Fang (193) Araxxi Legs Completed: 5 ---Top (69/206/234/292/361), Middle (163/176/278/343/395), Bottom (135/256/350/359/397)Boss Pets: Supreme - 848 KCIf you play Xbox One - Add me! GT: Urtehnoes - Currently on a Destiny binge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidnightHarvester Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 Saruman don't feel bad. I'm up to I guess around 300 irons and a few steels in between without anything worth noting. Virginia Beach eh, yeah that's what I'm talking about. Richmond here (well between there and Charlottesville in Louisa) Hours Available (EST|GMT-5) Mon-Fri: 7-11pm | Sat-Sun: Throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakka102 Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 Thanks for sharing this point. I get annoyed with people who say "I can't special with my guthans, it hates me!" or "My Ring of wealth doesn't work, can I trade it for your's?". People need to understand that luck is just luck. Sometimes you get guthans specials more often than others or that rare drop more often than others. It's all just according to randomness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidnightHarvester Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 My ring of wealth doesn't work? It's simply because they forgot to take their ring to Isafdar to the poison waste to get it enchanted by throwing it into the swamp and then fishing it out again with a large fishing net... god I thought everybody knew that :wink: Hours Available (EST|GMT-5) Mon-Fri: 7-11pm | Sat-Sun: Throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trecool9897 Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 Yay! I love maths! Anyways...good data and a strong point you presented. Many people complain about it being 'impossible' or 'rigged'. I don't think they understand the concept of it being random :wall: Thanks Lil_Atza for the sig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triquos Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 the figures sound about right, anyone can try this on one of the school calculators using 2000#ran to get a random number between 1 and 2000, i've tried it a few times, sometimes i get the number exactly on a lot of 100, never seemed to get it on number 1 though =[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miracleman58 Posted June 22, 2007 Share Posted June 22, 2007 woah aswsome, i want a simulation programme like that :o :XD: good findings, dont know weaths it is usefull thou umm just makes people fell better 1593th to 99 Farming - July 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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