Deflation about to kick in again?

[Goldenjkered]

Well, as we all know, the 3k trade limit is upon us (tommorow to be exact), and currently one major way of getting gp into the game is by alching. However, due to the increase of yew longbows from around 600 gp to 714 on the grand exchange, players have had to go back to the old fashioned way of trading with other players. However, with the trade limit, trading with other players will become very limited and therefore, people will have to resort to buying their yew longs from the Grand Exchange. But, with these very high prices, it seems to be now, that it is cheaper to train magic by using battle spells, e.g fire bolting metal dragons. So with less and less people alching, less gp is brought into the game, and then deflation starts to come in to touch, this is where the value of money increases and the value of items drops. Any thoughts?

[xarronx]

The G.E will now be where 90% of trades will take place, yes i do beleive we are going to hit a period of unstability with prices.

 

 

 

Will the prices deflate or inflate? well this very much depends on the item and its uses. Yew longs are on the Jagex list of things to be sorted, so i would expect to see the price floor on that item lowered sometime soon. Anyhow why dont we all just high alch Ruby Bracelets?

 

 

 

Anything to do with summoning will sore in price, Rares i beleive are in for a beating unfortunately.

[Brolly04]

I really hope the super attack and super def pots inflate :pray: . I went out on a whim and bought as much as 10m could buy of them..

[Sy_Accursed]

The thing people fail to see is lately they've gone:

 

 

 

pffft GE price is out I'll not use it

 

 

 

Therefore the small amount of trades running thru GE have a huge impact

 

 

 

Once this kicks in logicall sellers looking for quick sales will up the flow of low end sales, thus causing the prices to slid back to where they should be according to the player market, if not cheaper as it is now easier to sell.

[mega_vegeta6]

I was really suprised that even before Ge, Yew logs had rose to 350ish each, i spent an hour trying to by for 300 wich was the old price. apparently autoers raised the price of yew logs? :wall:

[Jordanweb]

I was really suprised that even before Ge, Yew logs had rose to 350ish each, i spent an hour trying to by for 300 wich was the old price. apparently autoers raised the price of yew logs? :wall:

 

 

 

No, autoers lowered the price of yew logs.

 

 

 

When skillcapes were released, thousands of people went for 99 firemaking and fletching, if it weren't for the autoers yew logs would probably be 500 each.

[Dragon_lord]

It seems that because alching has been given a beating, not as much money will be coming into the game as before.

 

And anyone who knows Economics knows that Less Currency=Less Demand; therefore there will most likely be an immense deflatation in prices.

 

For a month or so after the trading limit becomes active, prices will be unstable and players might panic and start selling items for a low price, thus causing prices to deflate even further.

 

 

 

Quoting the Men in black movie:

 

"A person is smart, but people are stupid. They panic, run and cause chaos".

[Infi]

I really hope the super attack and super def pots inflate :pray: . I went out on a whim and bought as much as 10m could buy of them..

 

Sorry mate, but in my opinion that's not likely to happen, then major source (buyers) of those potions are mainly gone, mainstream Player Killing is defunct. :wall:

[Sonicspeed]

I doubt we'll have even more deflation.

 

 

 

The GE, by centralizing trades and removing time-consuming merchants, is allowing for more money to change hands quicker. This means that the money can be re-used more often--almost as though there's actually more money than before now, since more exchanges can happen. When the trading restrictions in January hit, more people will be forced to use the GE and more money will be flowing, after the initial pause as prices correct themselves.

 

 

 

Furthermore, what's important to remember is this: if alchers are persistent, they will find another method come January. It's true that most "new money" comes from Alchers, however there's also the money that comes in from selling items to stores and through monster drops themselves. Additionally, not all the alched money is from yew logs. In fact, I'm surprised this thread isn't considering inflation, as the value of the nature rune is decreasing. There's probably no need to fear further deflation, because the GP has seemingly had its major fall due to the removal of merchants. According to the graphs by primadog, we can see that most prices are stabilizing. The only way to go is up, and the price of the nature rune's ready to facilitate new mass-alched items. Alching will be lost for yew logs unless they see a major decrease, but it probably won't matter because people will find other items to use.

 

 

 

For those that don't know, inflation and deflation are not "bad and good" opposites. Deflation's actually somewhat of a bad thing, because an increasing value in money encourages people to hold onto it rather than spend it, as it'll be worth more tomorrow. Too much inflation also means lots of problems, because the money loses its value and people panic about its worth. A constant, predictable, low rate of inflation encourages people to spend their money without losing control.

[mrmyk]

There is other items to alch apart from yew longbows.

[qeltar]

Jagex has already said that they are going to adjust the floor prices on items when they update the GE. So this entire thread is basically moot.

[Capone_Sabre]

Just because yew longbows are 100 gp each more on the exchange then they were on the forums does not mean alching is dead. For a start, natures are 50gp each less, so in real terms you are only losing 50gp more per alch.

 

 

 

Not only that but there are lots of other things you can alch (which are plentiful) like magic longbows or green dragonhide bodies. I've been alching green dragonhide bodies lately and I lose less per alch than I did alching yew longbows before the GE came out!

 

 

 

Of course, a huge amount of people alch the bows they fletch. I personally alched every bow I made on the way to 99 fletching. People will still continue to do this, thus bringing gp into the game.

 

 

 

Jagex might lower the floor price anyway. If they even lower it by 50gp you'll be making the same loss per alch as you did before.

 

 

 

Alching is still the best way of training magic.

[qeltar]

 

Alching is still the best way of training magic.

 

 

 

Well, it is if you enjoy losing money and being bored. ;)

[Alex_Ewan_1]

I reckon there will be some drastic changes in the prices of some common items such as sharks, yew logs etc..

[Capone_Sabre]

 

Alching is still the best way of training magic.

 

 

 

Well, it is if you enjoy losing money and being bored. ;)

 

 

 

65k xp an hour whilst I watch TV and less than 2gp per xp has always seemed pretty good to me. Got a better way? :P

[TheAncient]

Many of the alternatives to yew longs are actually yield more gp. Inflation is also possible.

 

 

 

I personally have added probably 30M new coins into the game through my alch item, and I still have 8 levels to go til my goal.

[qeltar]

 

Alching is still the best way of training magic.

 

 

 

Well, it is if you enjoy losing money and being bored. ;)

 

 

 

65k xp an hour whilst I watch TV and less than 2gp per xp has always seemed pretty good to me. Got a better way? :P

 

 

 

Lots of ways. I got up to 94 alching pretty much nothing except monster drops.

 

 

 

In general, I'd rather superheat ores or mage monsters with decent drops. I almost never waste money on training when it's not necessary.

[remington]

Opps My mistake....

[TheAncient]

 

Exactly when did less currency= less demand?

 

 

 

When did currency and demand get tied together?

 

 

 

Less currency means people have less money (less demand) to spend on stuff, meaning sellers will have to discount prices in order to sell their items.

 

 

 

 

Oh, and I may be mistaken, but didn't post WWI Germany kind of prove that MORE currency reduces it's buying power, not the other way around?

 

 

 

More currency = less purchasing power, correct. This supports prices going down for deflation, since each dollar has more purchasing power, meaning you can buy things for less dollars.

[Sam]

There is other items to alch apart from yew longbows.

 

 

 

 

 

Listen to this guy, he's using his brain.

[remington]

 

Exactly when did less currency= less demand?

 

 

 

When did currency and demand get tied together?

 

 

 

Less currency means people have less money (less demand) to spend on stuff, meaning sellers will have to discount prices in order to sell their items.

 

 

 

 

Oh, and I may be mistaken, but didn't post WWI Germany kind of prove that MORE currency reduces it's buying power, not the other way around?

 

 

 

More currency = less purchasing power, correct. This supports prices going down for deflation, since each dollar has more purchasing power, meaning you can buy things for less dollars.

 

 

 

Indeed, I was taking his quote as meaning something else.

 

 

 

It's not often I prove my OWN self wrong in my OWN post... :oops:

 

 

 

Still less money coming into RS is better than more.

 

 

 

Though I personally doubt there will that drastic a drop in gold in runescape.

[Capone_Sabre]

 

Alching is still the best way of training magic.

 

 

 

Well, it is if you enjoy losing money and being bored. ;)

 

 

 

65k xp an hour whilst I watch TV and less than 2gp per xp has always seemed pretty good to me. Got a better way? :P

 

 

 

Lots of ways. I got up to 94 alching pretty much nothing except monster drops.

 

 

 

In general, I'd rather superheat ores or mage monsters with decent drops. I almost never waste money on training when it's not necessary.

 

 

 

Yes I have alched all my drops too, which got me very little magic xp. Superheating ores is useful if you intend to smith the bars. But as I don't, it just proves to be more costly and more time consuming than alching.

 

 

 

I'd rather get 65k an hour not even looking at the screen than get 40k click training and hoping for a lucky drop. Just because alching bores you, doesn't mean it bores me. In fact, maging metal dragons bores the hell out of me.

 

 

 

You could alch all the way to 99 and lose 15-20m. Not exactly a lot of money, is it? With the time saved you could easily make that back. There is no guarantee that you will get that visage or whatever it is you're hoping for anyway.

 

 

 

Alching is my method of choice and always will be, just like hundreds of thousands of other players.

[Omar]

I really hope the super attack and super def pots inflate :pray: . I went out on a whim and bought as much as 10m could buy of them..

 

I bought 500 strenght amulets, they're only 1.1k each. That's almost 2k of profit, if not more, for each amulet. That, rune axes, power amulets, and there's probably more. That's for F2P.

[Chippy_PK]

i noticed something, since its a 3k trade limit u could still buy them by like 50-100 at a time at like 600 ea.........

[whocares]

It can't kick in because Jagex has almost total control of the economy.

 

 

 

How are players supposed to control the economy of an item like a partyhat which is worth over 140m when they can only change the price of it by 3k.

 

 

 

I dont see how jagex will be able to change the prices of the Grand Exchange regularly when they got so many prices wrong to begin with... they don't know their own prices.