Drop Rates

[kickler123]

I'm honestly not too sure where to put this, but I'll put it here for now.

 

Here are my views regarding drop rates and I'm sick of browsing the help and and advice threads and I see:

"Drop rate?"

"I've had no luck with....."

"Am I just unlucky or did jagex nerf the drop rate of....?"

 

 

I want to say this:

 

Drop rates are by no means accurate at all. Say for example we're talking about tormented demons.

Lets just say the "drop rate" for d claws is 1/275.

 

This DOES NOT gurantee if you kill 275, you will get that drop.

Remember drops are best on 100% luck. Ive seen people get d claws on their first kill, and I've unfortunatally seen people (including myself) kill over 1500 steel dragons and never get a visage.

 

 

So in the long run, it's all luck. Don't get your hopes down though... You'll never know when that day comes.

Happy monster hunting everybody and I wish luck to all of you.

~Happy Holidays a little early from Kickler123~

If you ever want to contact me in-game send me a message here first.

 

Thanks

 

~kickler123~

[Low C]

You have a good point, but this is sorta like a mini-rant and doesn't have much discussion value. But I get what your saying about drop rates, I've killed my fair share of dragons and never once have gotten a dragon drop or a visage. One left half in 4 years of game play isn't exactly great odds either. <_<

[Riemis]

I've killed lesser demons for 150k str xp, and no rune med, but a few weeks ago I got 3 meds in 10k xp, it's all about luck indeed :P

[TheLavaMiner]

If you knew that exactly the 275th monster will drop you d claws, would it be as fun? I like the mystery and the suprise that comes from a valuable and unexpected drop.

[sees_all1]

So in the long run, it's all luck.

 

Somewhere in the world a statistician is crying now.

 

In the long run, it isn't luck. If the drop rate is 1 in a 1000, if you kill 1 million, you should have 1000.

In the short run, yes, its luck.

 

I'd like to point out that there are few 'scapers that can consider themselves "in the long run".

 

 

 

On a related note, you can compute the probability of getting a drop after killing x monsters if you know the drop rate. I forget what it's called, but then again, I don't care enough to look it up right now. The math is out there.

[Kenshinjapan]

So in the long run, it's all luck.

 

 

 

In the long run, it isn't luck. If the drop rate is 1 in a 1000, if you kill 1 million, you should have 1000.

In the short run, yes, its luck.

 

 

.01% is still a chance, albeit unlucky in this case ;).

[lycansquall]

what quests do you need to go and kill the demon's am a 131 and i still dunno lol XD

[muggiwhplar]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[Bladewing]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

^

 

Your rant is based on a misunderstanding of statistics.

[la la la]

In case you were wondering, you have a:

[1-(Chances of NOT getting drop / Drop Rate)^(Number of monsters killed)] * 100

percent chance of receiving the item for X monsters killed.

 

Let's translate this into Tormented demons. Let's say the drop rate is 1/175 (much closer than 1/275, i believe). If you have a goal of killing 500 tormented demons, you have a: [1-(274/275)^500]*100 = 83.82% chance of getting claws within those 500 kills. If you up that to a goal of 1000 tormented demons, your chances are significantly increased, at a probability of 97.38%.

[Reztral]

Indeed it is all about luck. I got Dragon Plateskirt from the very first Bronze Dragon I killed. However, I have killed probably around 2000 Fire Giants and have never gotten a Dragon Medium Helmet.

[Lugia_Lvl138]

My solo Arma kills 66 and 112 were both Hilts. I'm now up to 422 solos without a 3rd Hilt. One time soloing Sara, I got 2 Hilts and a Sword all within 18 kills, then another time at solo Sara I went 329 kills between Swords/Hilts. Started logging TD solos, 232 with only 1 Slice. I'm more than rich enough to sustain myself through any kind of dry streak though, and I have noncombat moneymakers as well if luck isn't on my side.

[Youmu]

This indeed is all luck.

 

The very first cockroach soldier I killed dropped a rune sq, and the very first lesser demon I killed dropped a rune med.

 

Though, I've killed over 2000 flesh crawlers, and only ever gotten 1 uncut diamond drop.

[bedman]

It's funny how people are comparing monster drops with different drop rates. "This guy killed a TD and got dragon claws first kill, while I kill 1.5k steel dragons, and didn't get a visage". You realise that the drop rate of steel dragons is somewhere in the 1.5k-5k range? So it's really not all that unlucky.

[Coandca5]

I've killed over 500 Tormented demons without a claw or slice/shard/lump drop, I'm down to believing that the statistics in this game are complete bs. It's all based on luck.

[Star.]

One of my cousins was extremely lucky and got a visage drop on his first kill but then after he had a looong dry streak.

[britonlongbow]

I've killed over 500 Tormented demons without a claw or slice/shard/lump drop, I'm down to believing that the statistics in this game are complete bs. It's all based on luck.

That makes no sense... Each time you kill something does not increase your chance the next kill to get something good. Therefore your saying statistics have nothing to do with the game because you have yet to hit some 1/300 proposition in 500 tries ?

Ask any sports gambler about trying to hit 1/300 bets

[JoeDaStudd]

I've killed over 500 Tormented demons without a claw or slice/shard/lump drop, I'm down to believing that the statistics in this game are complete bs. It's all based on luck.

mmm the chances of getting a head after getting 10 tails in a row is high, but never guaranteed.

Whats you've done is the equivalent of flipping a coin twice then complain you got 2 heads (even more similar since its about 1 in 250 per claw drop) and the its not based on statistics.

 

 

 

Wow I'm amazed at the number of people who actually noticed the odds never change per flip, surprised no-one mentioned the odds of saying it would happen.

0.5¹+0.5²+0.5³+0.5⁴+0.5⁵+0.5⁶+0.5⁷+0.5⁸+0.5⁹ +0.5¹⁰ = 0.0009765625 ( 0.09765625%) chance of 10 consecutive tails.

The odds never change, but the probability of it happening overall.

Edited December 3, 2009 by JoeDaStudd

[Socrates]

mmm the chances of getting a head after getting 10 tails in a row is high, but never guaranteed.

 

If you count 1/2 as high, then yes, you're right. :ohnoes:

[Mecakoto]

mmm the chances of getting a head after getting 10 tails in a row is high, but never guaranteed.

Whats you've done is the equivalent of flipping a coin twice then complain you got 2 heads (even more similar since its about 1 in 250 per claw drop) and the its not based on statistics.

 

The logic made me Lol. Both parts.

[sees_all1]

mmm the chances of getting a head after getting 10 tails in a row is high, but never guaranteed.

 

If you count 1/2 as high, then yes, you're right. :ohnoes:

1/2 odds makes for a good bet in vegas.

[Zaaps1]

Drop rates are by no means accurate at all. Say for example we're talking about tormented demons.

Lets just say the "drop rate" for d claws is 1/275.

 

This DOES NOT gurantee if you kill 275, you will get that drop.

Remember drops are best on 100% luck. Ive seen people get d claws on their first kill, and I've unfortunatally seen people (including myself) kill over 1500 steel dragons and never get a visage.

 

 

No, it is accurate, but it's not guaranteed. There's a difference.

 

The "drop rate" of d claws, if it is 1/275 as you said, means that if you kill tons of tormented demons you will get one roughly every 275. It DOES NOT mean you will get one every 275. A rate is an average, not a standard.

[buffrichie]

mmm the chances of getting a head after getting 10 tails in a row is high, but never guaranteed.

 

llllllllllllllllllllol

lolllllllllllllllllll

lllllllllllollllllll

rofl

 

on topic.. exactly what the people said about the long run... its like poker in the short run luck plays a huge roll but in the long run the better players always make money

[12pure34]

The weirdest part is, we don't have drop logs about monsters. We can get thousands of entries every day. After a month we can come up with reasonable droplogs. Isn't there something usefull that could be coded to create these drop logs? If you can get a reasonable guess of what the chance would be to get nature runes from moss giants, you could come up with a 'calculated guess' of how much Moss Giants could earn (for example). Great for max/min.

 

It is weird that we don't have this ;) To think that WoW has reasonable logs quite quickly, Runescape hasn't got it, with mobs being older then 3-4 years.

[sees_all1]

The weirdest part is, we don't have drop logs about monsters. We can get thousands of entries every day. After a month we can come up with reasonable droplogs. Isn't there something usefull that could be coded to create these drop logs? If you can get a reasonable guess of what the chance would be to get nature runes from moss giants, you could come up with a 'calculated guess' of how much Moss Giants could earn (for example). Great for max/min.

 

It is weird that we don't have this ;) To think that WoW has reasonable logs quite quickly, Runescape hasn't got it, with mobs being older then 3-4 years.

 

That's because I get an edge knowing the best place to train at; and as soon as people know where the "best" spot is, it won't be that anymore.

Also, as you can clearly see, people don't understand statistics, and will be very angry when they don't get that drop. Also, I usually don't trust other people's data as much as my own. Too easy to spoof.