lordkafei Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Going to do a lot of cutting and pasting; I believe this will be behind a paywall in a few days: How Far Obama Has Fallen ... Which gets us to Tuesday. No one knows what will happen. Maybe that means it will be close, and maybe it doesn't. Maybe a surprise is in store. But the fact that Barack Obama is fighting for his political life is still one of the great political stories of the modern era. Look at where he started, placing his hand on the Bible Abe Lincoln was sworn in on in 1861. It was Jan. 20, 2009. The new president was 47 and in the kind of position politicians can only dream ofa historic figure walking in, the first African-American president, broadly backed by the American people. He won by 9.5 million votes. Two days after his inauguration, Gallup had him at 68% approval, only 12% disapproval. He had a Democratic Senate, and for a time a cloture-proof 60 members. He had a Democratic House (256-178) with a colorful, energetic speaker. The mainstream media were excited about him, supportive of him. His political foes were demoralized, their party fractured. He faced big problemsan economic crash,two warsbut those crises gave him broad latitude. All of his stars were perfectly aligned. He could do anything. And then it all changed. At a certain point he lost the room. Books will be written about what happened, but early on the president made two terrible legislative decisions. The stimulus bill was a political disaster, and it wasn't the cost, it was the content. We were in crisis, losing jobs. People would have accepted high spending if it looked promising. But the stimulus was the same old same old, pure pork aimed at reliable constituencies. It would course through the economy with little effect. And it would not receive a single Republican vote in the House (three in the Senate), which was bad for Washington, bad for our politics. It was a catastrophic victory. It did say there was a new boss in town. But it also said the new boss was out of his league. Then health care, a mistake beginning to end. The president's 14-month-long preoccupation with ObamaCare signaled that he did not share the urgency of people's most immediate concernsjobs, the economy, all the coming fiscal cliffs. The famous 2,000-page bill added to their misery by adding to their fear. Voters would have had to trust the president a lot to believe his program wouldn't raise their premiums, wouldn't limit their autonomy, wouldn't make a shaky system worse. But they didn't trust him that much, because they'd just met him. They didn't really know him. You have to build the kind of trust it takes to do something so all-encompassing. And so began the resistance, the Tea Party movement and the town-hall protests, full of alarmed independents and older Democrats. Both revived Republicans and, temporarily at least, reunited conservatives. Why did the president make such mistakes? Why did he make decisions that seemed so unknowing, and not only in retrospect? Because he had so much confidence, he thought whatever he did would work. He thought he had "a gift," as he is said to have told Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. He thought he had a special ability to sway the American people, or so he suggested to House Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor. But whenever he went over the the heads of the media and Congress and went to the people, in prime-time addresses, it didn't really work. He did not have a magical ability to sway. Andoddlyhe didn't seem to notice. It is one thing to think you're Lebron. Its another thing to keep missing the basket and losing games and still think you're Lebron. And that really was the problem: He had the confidence without the full capability. And he gathered around him friends and associates who adored him, who were themselves talented but maybe not quite big enough for the game they were in. They understood the Democratic Party, its facts and assumptions. But they weren't America-sized. They didn't get the country so well. It is a mystery why the president didn't second-guess himself more, doubt himself. Instead he kept going forward as if it were working. He doesn't do chastened. He didn't do what Bill Clinton learned to do, after he took a drubbing in 1994: change course and prosper. Mr. Obama may yet emerge victorious. There are, obviously, many factors in every race. Maybe, as one for instance, the seriousness of the storm has sharpened people's anxietiesthere are no local crises anymore, a local disaster is a national disasterso that anxiety will leave some people leaning toward the status quo, toward the known. Or maybe, conversely, they'll think he failed to slow the oceans' rise. We'll know soon. Whatever happens, Mr. Obama will not own the room again as once he did. If he wins, we will see a different presidencyeven more stasis, and political strugglebut not a different president. PvP is not for meIn the 3rd Year of the BoycottReal-world money saved since FT/W: Hundreds of DollarsReal-world time saved since FT/W: Thousands of Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginger_Warrior Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The same is true for any President. In fact, scratch that, the same is true for any political leader operating in a democratic system and a mass media as developed as the US's. Incumbent governments lose popularity over time? Thanks, Captain. 1 | Favourite Game Music | Last.fm | HYT Friend Chat Rules | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obfuscator Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Sandy did throw an interesting wrench into things though. I do think it'll help obama more than romney. "It's not a rest for me, it's a rest for the weights." - Dom Mazzetti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sees_all1 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Starting at 1:18...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pVTrnxCZaQ&t=1m18s 99 dungeoneering achieved, thanks to everyone that celebrated with me! ♪♪ Don't interrupt me as I struggle to complete this thoughtHave some respect for someone more forgetful than yourself ♪♪♪♪ And I'm not doneAnd I won't be till my head falls off ♪♪ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hamtaro Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Starting at 1:18...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pVTrnxCZaQ&t=1m18sKanye is a talentless idiot.http://www.voanews.c...er/1363615.html Player since 2004. All skills 1M+ XP."If it were possible to cure evils by lamentation..., then gold would be a less valuable thing than weeping." - Sophocles"Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws." - Plato Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginger_Warrior Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 If there's anything more vulgar than politicians using personal catastrophe to further their own causes, and there's been plenty of that by both sides in the past few days, it's people like Kanye West using it as a soapbox. Even if you believe Bush hated black people around Katrina, it's completely inappropriate to express those opinions in that context. | Favourite Game Music | Last.fm | HYT Friend Chat Rules | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Lord Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'm voting for Bob Dole. Obama's a socialist, and Romney's a liberal. Both are bad for America. 1 SWAG Mayn U wanna be like me but U can't be me cuz U ain't got ma swagga on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Gabe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'm voting for Bob Dole. Obama's a socialist, and Romney's a liberal. Both are bad for America. Are you trolling? Three months banishment to 9gag is something i would never wish upon anybody, not even my worst enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Lord Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Not at all. I like Bob Dole because he's a conservative, and we need a real conservative president for a change. SWAG Mayn U wanna be like me but U can't be me cuz U ain't got ma swagga on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasignhagj Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/new-detailed-account-of-benghazi-attack-notes-cias-quick-response/ The Republican attempt to politicize Benghazi keeps falling apart. Although at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Romney ad claiming there was no response to the attack at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sees_all1 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 So the first bit of news on Benghazi from ABC paints a positive picture for the Obama administration. Who'd have guessed. :rolleyes: You blame the Republicans for politicizing this, but as I've demonstrated in previous posts there has been a double standard from September 12th. Romney condemns the apology, the President condemns the apology, and the media challenges Romney on "politicizing" the issue. The administration for 2 weeks claims that the attack was a riot spawned from a spontaneous demonstration, and the media still criticizes Romney for "politicizing" the issue, when in reality the administration was covering up what really happened to make their foreign policy look good. It's mind boggling how corrupt the mainstream media is. 99 dungeoneering achieved, thanks to everyone that celebrated with me! ♪♪ Don't interrupt me as I struggle to complete this thoughtHave some respect for someone more forgetful than yourself ♪♪♪♪ And I'm not doneAnd I won't be till my head falls off ♪♪ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champion Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 As a more lighthearted point related to the media, Fox News "political analyst" Dick Morris has predicted that Romney will win in a 'landslide.' http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/oreilly/2012/11/01/dick-morris-romney-will-win-landslide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sees_all1 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'd be willing to bet a TIF signature that Romney wins the popular vote, and an avatar that Romney wins overall (each for 2 months, changed to something within the forum rules). 2 99 dungeoneering achieved, thanks to everyone that celebrated with me! ♪♪ Don't interrupt me as I struggle to complete this thoughtHave some respect for someone more forgetful than yourself ♪♪♪♪ And I'm not doneAnd I won't be till my head falls off ♪♪ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Range_This11 Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Sorry, but if you have been following the polling you would know that the popular vote is a total tossup--no matter what either side will tell you--and that President Obama has a high likelihood of winning the Electoral College. Romney has fallen in the polls since the Denver debate in the battleground states that matter most like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Florida will go Romney, but he's losing ground even in Virginia and Colorado. It will take "the perfect storm" for Romney to win the Electoral College. "He could climb to it, if he climbed alone, and once there he could suck on the pap of life, gulp down the incomparable milk of wonder." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginger_Warrior Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'm voting for Bob Dole. Obama's a socialist, and Romney's a liberal. Both are bad for America.If you think Obama's a dirty little socialist, I'd hate to think what names you'd call me. But I won't take it personally. | Favourite Game Music | Last.fm | HYT Friend Chat Rules | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sumpta Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'm voting for Bob Dole. Obama's a socialist, and Romney's a liberal. Both are bad for America.If you think Obama's a dirty little socialist, I'd hate to think what names you'd call me. But I won't take it personally. This exactly. I can't even begin to explain how hilarious it is to me to hear Obama being called a socialist. I don't think Romney stands a chance against Obama. All the analyses I've read say that while the popular vote may be a closer call, Obama's electoral win is pretty much set in stone and has been for a while now. I prefer Obama to Romney, but maybe the US would fare better with a moderate Republican (not Romney). A president who can gather both moderate republicans and moderate democrats around him and find some compromise between them. I think Obama wanted to be that figure, but he's failed, not necessarily through any fault of his own. As it is, the huge differences between the two parties are making any kind of policy and progress impossible (e.g. the failed health care reform). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estonian dude Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 God damn, I should read whole this thread for background information, but I am too lazy...Anyways, still I was lucky enough to be picked among a handful of people to get to see the Presidential Election summary live in our national broadcasting company's headquarters. I shall be visiting the US ambassador there aswell, and I am quite anxious to see, what will be happening. So I've noticed this thread's regulars all follow similar trends. RPG is constantly dealing with psycho exes.Muggi reminds us of the joys of polygamy.Saq is totally oblivious to how much chicks dig him.I strike out every other week.Kalphite wages a war against the friend zone.Randox pretty much stays rational.Etc, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Range_This11 Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 This is an excellent blog whose author correctly predicted 49/50 states for the presidential race in 2008 and correctly predicted the conservative swing in 2010 (along with most of those races). It takes all of the polling data, weights it, and produces a statistical analysis. Right now Obama has an 83% chance of winning the electoral college according to Nate Silver. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ 1 "He could climb to it, if he climbed alone, and once there he could suck on the pap of life, gulp down the incomparable milk of wonder." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnie Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Imagine if Ron Paul won the nomination. Obama would be terrified right now, because all the young voters would abandon him and all the conservative voters would (perhaps grudgingly in regards to foreign policy) support RP, but Romney won the nomination and gave Obama an assured win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nine naked men Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 And then we'd finally have somebody to put those uppity gays and the blacks back in their place Why do people on the internet have such a hardon for Ron Paul anyway? Is it just the pot thing? sleep like dead men wake up like dead men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sees_all1 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Sorry, but if you have been following the polling you would know that the popular vote is a total tossup--no matter what either side will tell you--and that President Obama has a high likelihood of winning the Electoral College. Romney has fallen in the polls since the Denver debate in the battleground states that matter most like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Florida will go Romney, but he's losing ground even in Virginia and Colorado. It will take "the perfect storm" for Romney to win the Electoral College.If it was a sure thing then there wouldn't be any point in betting. Anyhow, you don't have enough confidence in Obama to risk it? 99 dungeoneering achieved, thanks to everyone that celebrated with me! ♪♪ Don't interrupt me as I struggle to complete this thoughtHave some respect for someone more forgetful than yourself ♪♪♪♪ And I'm not doneAnd I won't be till my head falls off ♪♪ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginger_Warrior Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 And then we'd finally have somebody to put those uppity gays and the blacks back in their place Why do people on the internet have such a hardon for Ron Paul anyway? Is it just the pot thing?Never underestimate how the Internet feels about marijuana. | Favourite Game Music | Last.fm | HYT Friend Chat Rules | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Range_This11 Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 Sorry, but if you have been following the polling you would know that the popular vote is a total tossup--no matter what either side will tell you--and that President Obama has a high likelihood of winning the Electoral College. Romney has fallen in the polls since the Denver debate in the battleground states that matter most like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Florida will go Romney, but he's losing ground even in Virginia and Colorado. It will take "the perfect storm" for Romney to win the Electoral College.If it was a sure thing then there wouldn't be any point in betting. Anyhow, you don't have enough confidence in Obama to risk it?I would bet on an Obama victory in the electoral college, but would not bet one cent on the popular vote. Why do people on the internet have such a hardon for Ron Paul anyway? Is it just the pot thing?I don't support Ron Paul and I smoke pot. "He could climb to it, if he climbed alone, and once there he could suck on the pap of life, gulp down the incomparable milk of wonder." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vezon Dash Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I voted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasignhagj Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Sorry, but if you have been following the polling you would know that the popular vote is a total tossup--no matter what either side will tell you--and that President Obama has a high likelihood of winning the Electoral College. Romney has fallen in the polls since the Denver debate in the battleground states that matter most like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Florida will go Romney, but he's losing ground even in Virginia and Colorado. It will take "the perfect storm" for Romney to win the Electoral College.If it was a sure thing then there wouldn't be any point in betting. Anyhow, you don't have enough confidence in Obama to risk it? I'll take you up on the Electoral College bet. Not quite as confident about the pop vote though. EDIT: Why not, If range wants to bet on the EC, I'll bet on the pop vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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