Tip.It Times Presents: Construction; Deflation or Not?

[mastaraymond]

great article, is there coming a time rares are to expensive to pay? Cause guys with rares quit etc.. That means the new players need to make more money the whole time to get a rare..

[Lode]

great article, is there coming a time rares are to expensive to pay? Cause guys with rares quit etc.. That means the new players need to make more money the whole time to get a rare..

 

 

 

What "too expensive" is, is relative, in 2003 100 million would be too expensive, in 2006 not anymore...

[bobby1167]

Sooo sooo true

[malo2]

Very nice

[moose585]

Great article, you obviously know what your talking about :wink:

[bestsob]

Duke did a great job on that article, interesting read.

[Duke_Freedom]

I really thought that the fact that they get rarer and rarer, while more and more people enter the game, would have a more important influence on their prices.

 

 

 

Well, less or more directly, the inflation depends on the amount of people playing this game ofcourse. Personally I was surprised that it seems to follow the long-term trend of the gp ingame so literally though - I had expected the rares index to, at least slowly, diverge from the gp index.

 

 

 

Another interesting note about the index graph: as you can see, in the period from may-2005 to october-2005, the rares index is significantly higher then the gp index.

 

 

 

Most likely, the reason for this is slayer (in fact the whole peak you see in june-2005 was caused by slayer) which caused a large increase in demand for rares on short to mid-long term, which in turn influenced the development of the rare prices in that period. Apparently there was a 'lack of gp' to allow the rares index to continue it's divergence from the gp index though, and eventually the rares index even returned back to the exponential trendline of the gp index.

 

 

 

This would make rares in RS something like gold bars are in real life: something that follows the inflation.

 

 

 

Yes, most of the really rich merchants prefer to express their richness in rares, rather then gp, for that reason as well.

[magicman5555]

great article

[xn00bxfrei]

You forgot to include the cost of Gold Leafs, Marble and Magic stones in your calculation.

 

 

 

Yes I know - but how many people really use them? Most people seem to level using oak, which only drains 5.8gp / exp (that is including the most expensive servant already) and is still significantly lower then the 8gp / exp rate I actually used in my calculations. I know there are people using mahogany and even spending cash on the Gold Leafs, Marble and Magic stones - but would they really be putting the average gp spend / exp gained up by more then the 2.2gp I took to compensate that?

 

 

 

I do believe that they do -- just take the Altar for example. Let's assume everyone 72 construction and up has build one for levelling. (Of course some don't, but many more then don't, do build a lot of other expensive items as well to make up for it).

 

 

 

An altar (with the burners) drains a little over 2 million GP from the economy. Over 1000 people have that level so far, resulting in a 2 billion GP drain. Definitly significant if you ask me.

 

 

 

And yes, I do believe it is not made up for by the average beeing a little higher -- since I personally know a lot of people levelling on Mahogany compared to Oak.

 

 

 

Just my point of view -- I think materials such as Gold Leafs, Marble Blocks and Magic Stones are a greater drain than you seem to assume in your article.

[Duke_Freedom]

An altar (with the burners) drains a little over 2 million GP from the economy. Over 1000 people have that level so far, resulting in a 2 billion GP drain. Definitly significant if you ask me.

 

 

 

And yes, I do believe it is not made up for by the average beeing a little higher -- since I personally know a lot of people levelling on Mahogany compared to Oak.

 

 

 

Hm. Keep in mind that is only a ~0.22 difference in average gp / xp cost though (2bil / 9bil total exp). Though I agree it's reasonable to say that people with that level have made the altar.

 

Also keep in mind that roughly 2/3rds of the total exp is currently provided by people with a construction level of 60 or lower - people who, I think, are rather unlikely to have used mahogany?

 

 

 

Just my point of view -- I think materials such as Gold Leafs, Marble Blocks and Magic Stones are a greater drain than you seem to assume in your article.

 

 

 

Thats fine - I'm open to criticism as it helps me make better estimates. ^^

 

 

 

While we're at it, do you have any rough idea how much exp you spend on construction in total and how much of that was really drained out of the economy?

[TheLlama79]

Another great article, Duke. Well researched, well written. Always a pleasure reading an overview of the game I enjoy. I look forward to seeing that article in 2-3 months about the long term impact of Construction.

[Platinum_Myr]

Awesome article, but I would like to say just one thing. If you look at the average cost of gp per xp, you are NOT including things like rooms and other hugely expensive items. Some of the items cost 10mil+ and while you only need to get one ever, you still should factor that in.

[xn00bxfrei]

While we're at it, do you have any rough idea how much exp you spend on construction in total and how much of that was really drained out of the economy?

 

 

 

Probably around 90k Mahogany Planks. (As do the the others that have 99 at the time of the writing). That's roughly 135 million drained right there.

 

 

 

Plus, I have spent probably upwards of another 100 million on materials such as Marble, Magic Stones, and building NPC's in dungeon.

 

 

 

 

 

On the issue of if Marble etc really makes a big impact -- I think personally that it is just as big of a drainer as making planks is...well almost. If you don't think many people buy it, go worldhop in Keldagrim and look at the store's stock. Rarely do you find a world where all materials are fully stocked.

[Aneron]

boy, all those numbers make the wealth of the richest player in the game seem like nothing... if only all of runescape's cash flow could be diverted to me for an hour... awesome article anyway

[bedman]

Nice article, really.

 

 

 

I love how a graph can tell more than 1000 words (or something like that). I mean, if I would have studied those graphs and went rare merchanting, I would do double as good as without (For instance, after an insane rise, there is always, always, a drop (quite basic but still, coincidence or not? :D), etc...).

 

 

 

You really know what you're doing, nice one. I also love how your predictions are coming out "without a problem". You've got rs economy brains or something :).

 

 

 

Maybe (just a suggestion, I wouldnt want to push you or something, or get you addicted to rs, or I dunno what), start with rs again with a new account and see how fast you can pick up with the rare market again? :).

[bflitny1]

Great article...I hadn't realised crackers were back up above blues again.

 

Looking forward to your article in a few months!! Usually I like to critisize, but I'm struggling here, you're not giving me anything to work with :wink:

 

 

Maybe (just a suggestion, I wouldnt want to push you or something, or get you addicted to rs, or I dunno what), start with rs again with a new account and see how fast you can pick up with the rare market again? :).

 

That's actually a good idea, see what's really possible with runescapes top merchant :P I would really like to know how long it takes Duke to get say 10m, from scratch, no help from anyone. Name the char Duck Freedom or something (only because my friend used to merchant his stuff on a lvl 3 char called duck something :D ).

[Bobbinator17]

Yeah very nice article, well written, and clear knowledge of economics not just in Runescape, but in the real world too as well as some advanced stuff used in those models and graphs. A lot of that had already been said, just saying it again, and I believe more attention should be brought to this for the next article like this (not to drive you crazy :wall: ): Gold Leaves, Marble Blocks, and Magic Stones (as well as guards, traps and bosses) must have made a huge impact, knowing how many people were spending like bats outta hell trying to get 99 first, and the people who wanted just one or 2, or 7 or 20, nice things in their moderate little houses.

[lonew0lf1974]

Great read as allways duke glad to see you back around you've been missed.

[bear383]

Great job Duke ... Really like to read your articles! :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

www.brouwers.dk/runescape - DK's only!

[sediti0n]

Blimey you're too clever :oops:

 

 

 

Nice, interesting article.

 

 

 

One thing I would say, you asumed that construction would be "at least" half as popular, and provided estimates based on it being half as popular. No doubt in a few months it will be a lot less than half as popular as is has been, so perhaps in a few months it won't have anywhere near as much "drainage power" as predicted.

 

 

 

I think that more money is entering the game now through high-alching etc. than it was when you last did the estimates for total GP, seeing as there are more people playing the game (I believe this is backed up by one of your graphs). Asuming this, the average GP income into the game inbetween these two times should infact be less than the actual GP income today. Therefore more money is entering the game every day than predicted. Combining this with construction becoming less popular, the affect of construction on the market may not be as great as it seems in the long-term. No doubt it'll still remain a large money drain, though.

 

 

 

As to the comments about marble blocks, gold leaves etc.. I believe that these do drain a lot of money out of the game at the moment, but these are purely short-term purchases. Once every rich person has already used these to decorate their house as they wish, they can no longer use any more of these items, so it will no longer have much effect (Unless they completely destroy their house and start again, which won't happen).

 

 

 

I personally know nothing about economics so I may be talking rubbish. Just my thoughts :)

[shadowbot]

I think the drop off of players leveling construction will be severe. Either because they dont want to spend that much money per xp point, or because they have the levels for the features they want in their house.

 

 

 

In my opinion the amount per day drained by construction will decrease to much lower than half of what it was the first week.

 

 

 

Jagex wanted a money sink but i think what they ended up with was just a very sharp money speedbump.

 

 

 

Because of the sharp prices i think lots of players will give up on construction. I believe that if jagex wanted to make it more long lasting and constant drain,the prices for the logs to planks, should have been cut in half making the average around 4gp per xp point bringing it much closer to the average cost per xp of other skills. The closer the cost is to other skills, the more likely players are to invest in it before investing in a non money draining skill.

[Red_Warrior]

Very nice article Duke. I'v always loved rares and how they play there part in the econimy.

 

 

 

Seems to me we should be happy that rares are expesive, obviously they show a growth in money which means players are working within the game (not to mention they are something that people have to work for). Hope to see more acticles like this in the future.

[Unionhawk]

The recent release of construction has affected the runescape economy greatly. Now, people who don't have a house are making a lot more due to the decreace in people who primarily smith. However, i don't think this will be a big issue, because 1 gp still is the same in value.

[darkside]

long boring but a good read. nice article

[Ks_Jeppe]

I've always loved your articles duke :D Very good job, and i'm glad to see that you're still around :)