Are Party Hats and Other Rares Going Extinct?

[spikerkid]

Rares will never be all gone. There is to many people with party hats to tell if they were all gone. A lot of people have quit with rares, so if people keep alching rares to none of the active players have phats doesn't mean that their all gone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Imo there will always be party hats and they will never be gone unless jagex purposely deletes them all. And if they did that they will lose a lot of business.

[ianer101]

this brings kinda off topic question to mind... what would the last rare be and how expensive? :-k :shock: well yes fortunatly they will all be gone :thumbsup:?

 

It's hard to tell what the last rare would be, as people would notice that there weren't as many rares left and (hopefully) stop alching them. The last rare in the game could be sold for billions of gp. People would do a lot to grab that last party hat, just so they could be the only person in the game with that item.

[Cabbage_Boii]

well i dont think they will go ''extinct'' for a while yet...they get more and more money yes because they either drop teh hats into oblivion or 1 person has 3 sets

[harpy18]

They're not going extinct, and likely never totally will. I bet there tons in the banks of un-used and forgotten charactars.

 

 

 

However, party hat numbers are certainly not increasing, and they never will. You can lose them, but not get new ones.

 

 

 

Conclusion: Party hats are not going extinct, but their numbers are slowly but surely decreasing.

[Father_Time89]

Are they going extinct? Well they certainly aren't increasing in value or making any sort of comeback so yes eventually they will go extinct (when that will happen is up for debate).

[jaskkes]

Personally lots of friends I know buy their phats and KEEP them for their own value, not for their money value.

 

 

 

Once all the stakers and whoever else stop selling their phats or putting them on the market, then they will be 'extinct' from the market.

[homegirl911911999]

i have never seen a party hat but knowing how much they are worth i wish i had one.

[Jimmyh7]

We have all seen those pointless vidoes of lvl 100's ec dropping phats and other rare items and wathcing them go into oblivion. Why do people do this.

 

 

 

They are ALWAYS private servers such as [sorry Censor :)]. -.-

 

Anyway, rest assured they're fake.

[ben331]

Of course they will become extinct! it will just take a veeeery long time. if they keep changing hands, they will keep changing owners who will have different attitudes - and may lose or get rid of them. of course, since there is a limited supply, this is certain to happen, unless another duping occurs

[the_drunk_dude]

People drop party hats, they become more rare and valuable, leading to a bigger demand for them.

 

 

 

They just keep growing and growing in demand, so no, they aren't going "extinct"

 

+1

 

 

 

In another few months my one halloween mask will sell for billions :twisted:

[hatebringer]

I dont think rares will ever be totaly gone. Or atleast they will go oneday, but not while the game is still around.

 

 

 

However what is morelikely to happen is the market for people buying them vanishes! Yes that right, slowly there are becoming less and less rares (the videos are usually fake) most rares "disapear" when people slowly stop playing, not so much acidental alching, or banning.... and only idots die with rares!

 

 

 

Basically there will come a point when there are not enough of the product to support a market.

 

 

 

The areas in world one and two will disapear as they are not fast moving enough, and so the price will flatten off very quickly.

 

 

 

There will come a point when for long periods of time nobody is selling rares, and so when they come to sell, there are no buyers left as there are nobody looking for them.

 

 

 

This lack in buyers will make the rares drop in price and this rapid drop will slowly start to bring the market back, but I dont see it being for long.

 

 

 

So whilst i think unless jagex take them out, rares will always be around, but the sellers and buyers will not.

 

 

 

isnt that happening now?

 

 

 

prices dropping, no demand, i see it now

[Saru Inc]

LOL, what idiot would drop any rare? Oh, wait, I can think of a few. :x :wink:

 

 

 

P hats will never be 'extinct' because there are like 2.000+ party hats, maybe 3,000 dropped that day. Of course, thats just an estimate, but there will always be a few hundred people that will horde the party hats, thus there will always be some...

[blosssom2581]

I believe that they will extinct, or Jagex will deal with them somehow later

 

 

 

Phat is originally a fixed supplied good at this moment (as they are only distributed that day) However, some guys perfer keeping his phat instead of selling them (who knows)

 

 

 

When trading occurs between players, there is always a chance the buyer will keep it and NEVER sell it again

 

 

 

Futhermore, bannings, quitting Runescape (some guys hate giving away items as they feel that the receivers are 'tearing' his character apart), and some unknown bugs in the Runescape system constantly decrease the supply of phats. The supply of phat is thus decreasing, though originally fixed.

 

 

 

That means that phats price will either

 

shoot high

 

OR

 

reach infinity as nobody sells them

 

 

 

At that moment, Jagex may NOT do something like turning phats untradeable. Through unlikely at this moment, yet it's always possible in future

 

They may also allow players to sell phats for a sum of cash OR keep it as a symbol of richness, and total eliminate this historical problem

 

 

 

(some new players work like a dog just to gather cash needed for a phat)

[blosssom2581]

They're not going extinct, and likely never totally will. I bet there tons in the banks of un-used and forgotten charactars.

 

 

 

However, party hat numbers are certainly not increasing, and they never will. You can lose them, but not get new ones.

 

 

 

Conclusion: Party hats are not going extinct, but their numbers are slowly but surely decreasing.

 

 

 

There may be some forgotten character, but most likely, the password and recovery question sets are gone and there's no way to relieve these phats

[i_trollz_u]

well of course they are...although slowly, p hats and other rares are being lost and taken out of the game and although it'd take a VERY long time they will all eventually be lost since no more are comeing in. theoretically it'd have to take about a century lol...the less p hats there are the more care people will take of them resulting in a p hat being lost less often...but still happening.

[Infi]

Never letting go of my santa.

[00hydro]

I can't believe it, you all believe that people are dropping their phats on videos, I find if obvious what they're doing. If they use any kind of camara, they can drop it, pause the camara, pick it up, restart the camara, and viola! the phat "dissapears."

 

I'm sure some fools think they're wise enough to raise the price by dropping their phat, but all in all, most fake it

[Jackstick]

According to the tip.it update of December 9th, 2001, the maximum amount of players that could be playing RS was 5000.

 

 

 

Eheheh It looks like i come back in time to cach on new wave of updates which are comming to runescape world ...

 

 

 

From Andrew ...

 

 

 

I've just put a big RuneScape update online. This update includes:

 

 

 

(some other updates)

 

 

 

# Server limit back to 5000 Unfortunately I've had to put the player limit back to the original 5000. Despite upgrading my kernal, drivers, and improving the efficieny of my network code, the linux operating system still crashes if I try for more connections per box! I hate linux! :-) However I am hoping to get some additional servers to increase the capacity fairly soon.

 

 

 

After this, there were no more server additions that year. Users could pick up more than one christmas cracker. However, it was christmas... I doubt all the servers were full at this time. Plus, the crackers were just dropped at random times, so there was no way knowing when or where they would be dropped.

 

 

 

Since then, server additions have kept constant with the number of users joining. There were 4 servers back then, each able to hold 1,250 users. Total of 5000 users.

 

 

 

Today, there are 144 servers, able to hold 288,000 players at any given time. There are usually around 225,000 users on average.

 

 

 

225/288 = 0.78125

 

 

 

5000 x 0.78125 = 3906

 

 

 

Considering that the drop happened on christmas day, I doubt there were that many active users... I'd say around 3250, plus RS certainly wasn't as well known as it is now.

 

 

 

Now it depends on how many christmas crackers were picked up by every user. I would say that a lot of users probably got more than 3... But then again, the crackers were dropped in random areas of random times, and no one knew that it was going to happen. Some users might have been in dungeons, or doing quests, or just in certain areas where the items were not dropped. The users who did pick the crackers up probably got quite a few to see how many colors there really were... So, considering that some users didnt get any, and some got a lot, I think a distribution of 3 crackers per user is an even amount.

 

 

 

3250 x 3 = 9750

 

 

 

So, if you agree with me, then we can safely say that 9750 crackers have existed... And 9750 potential party hats have existed too. Since some users simply wanted to keep the cracker as it was, they did not crack it. I would say around 1000 crackers were not cracked. Honestly, go look on the RS forums and see how many users are selling crackers... So if you're still agreeing with me, then there have been, at some time in runescape's history, 8750 party hats. Back in the day, it wasn't hard to get a party hat... They were much less than 1milgp, and several people collected them. Some people hacked accounts for party hats, or scammed for party hats. These users, I would assume, would have a lot of party hats. Plus just users getting banned in general, possibly for profanities or otherwise, and owning a party hat. Users dying with party hats and no one around to pick them up... But then we have to factor in that party hats were duplicated. They were sold for incredibly low prices, and the duplicators would crack crackers with random users. So party hats were added back into the economy... According to an update by jagex, the amount of party hats in total was still less than the previous year. That year (nov 2002 - nov 2003) did not lose as much party hats as normal years because of the duplication. So instead of basing the amount of users dying and getting banned on a 5 1/2 year period, it should be based on something like 5 years. So because of that, I would say that there are around 6000 party hats.

 

 

 

Which really isn't a lot... There are 9million free player accounts, and 1million members accounts. Quite a few of the free player accounts are probably not active anymore, and according to some "Top MMORPG" lists, there are about 5million active accounts. Thats 1 party hat for every 833 people... Seems about right to me. If it seems like there are less, it is probably due to the fact that some users own more than one party hat.

 

 

 

If it took 5 years for 1750 party hats to disappear, then about 350 party hats are disappearing every year. People buy party hats on eBay, and jagex monitors high priced tradings, and they know if someone is getting a party hat for free... Plus, just because someone has a party hat, doesn't mean they don't get black marks often... Some might just get banned because of accumulated black marks. And of course... Some users (although very few) still die with no one around.

 

 

 

If the decline keeps constant, and we agree that there are 6000 party hats left... It would take 17 years for the current amount of party hats to be gone. This is assuming that there will be no more duplications.

 

 

 

Seems about right to me. One of the big reasons that we see less party hats nowadays is because there are a lot of users joining everyday... People who have party hats probably keep them in the bank. Some users who are only wearing one party hat may have more in the bank.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

tl;dr :

 

 

 

17 years til all phats are gone.

[walka92]

i saw a thread on RSOF once, about jagex "leaking" party hats into the game, not many, just a few. so that there are always a few to keep the economy stable

 

 

 

id say, its not unlikely.

 

 

 

i never think that rares will completley die out.

[gimmecola]

Most of the videos you see of people dropping party hats are private server ones. The only real way that they are going out of the game is by banning or quitting.

[walka92]

Most of the videos you see of people dropping party hats are private server ones. The only real way that they are going out of the game is by banning or quitting.

 

 

 

or if some1 alchs it, or dies and no1 is there to loot

[-----MadMax-----]

Yes they are going extict slowly but surely, but they will get to a point when people will not be willing to pay such a redculios price for a santa, even though they are a ticket to respect. but the only problem is that people quit leave, banned , and ocasnly alch there beloved rares. and the compertion will just keep pushing the price up and up , so i reckon they are not going to be extinct but just as you go though these next years they whill be coming rarer and rarer but there will always be a santa mask or phat out there. but that is if you are willing to pay the overcooked price for it

[davidium]

there will always be ppl who are willing to pay a high price for rares as can be seen from the price tag of blue party hats...and the sale of rares do not usually take place in game but get auctioned on the forums. now do u see the number of posts in the rares forum dropping? no right...in fact i would say it is increasing as more and more money flows into the game and ppl get richer...i really wonder of all the people who said rares are gonna be extinct one day how many of them really do own a rare themselves...although i own 3 santas i feel that this perspective is one which is rather impartial.

[Master_Smither]

They will slowly diminish to small numbers but never will be gone.

[mrmyk]

They will slowly diminish to small numbers but never will be gone.

 

 

 

I don't think they will ever be extremely small numbers, the market for rares is too great to fade out which would happen if they get too small in amount.