qeltar

It's human nature to speculate about the future. Consider that people start talking about who's going to win the Super Bowl during the preseason, or who might win an election over a year before we even know for sure who will be running. While nobody knows the specifics and therefore cannot be sure about anything, it is certainly possible to make educated guesses about what may happen and what the reaction might be. There's nothing wrong with it. In fact, Jagex encourages it with the BTS articles. And this is likely to be one of the biggest changes to the game in a long time. For those who are interested and haven't seen it yet, you might want to check out my Grand Exchange Preview; a Tip.It thread about it is here. ~q

You may be thinking of fire runes. Use dueling rings to quickly go between the altar and bank.

Bone bolts are rubbish. Popular now, but still rubbish. Time is money. Use proper gear and you kill monsters faster, get XP faster, get drops faster. It pays off.

Fundamental truth of RS monsters: - If you go after the ones with big drops, you are relying on luck and will either strike it rich or waste a lot of time and supplies. - If you go after good monsters without big drops you don't get the chance of a "big score" but you also will consistently make money. You ruled out Barrows because of bad luck so why set yourself up for the same disappointment with some other monster? Fight something that will make you 250-500k an hour consistently.

Some people (I don't mean you meili) seem to view dropping prices like this is a bad thing. Why? Consider that for every seller who makes less money because a price drops, there's a buyer who gets things cheaper as well. Most of us both buy and sell things, and cheaper supplies will help out many skillers, PKers etc. As long as the price drops are benefiting productive players and mostly coming out of the hands of merchants, it's all good IMO.

What you're forgetting is that there will be dozens of sellers, not just 3 or 4. If they are all selling at 300, then player D's 310 nats are going to just sit there. Okay, so you're assuming that the guy who got the legs is stupid. :) What you're forgetting is that lack of knowledge of what items go for will be much less common than it is now, because the GE will make it easy to see the market. Player A probably doesn't even have to list his legs for sale. He just looks at the listings of people looking to buy them and sells to one of those people. Your merchant will never even see them. Where they will probably sit forever, because players G, H, I, J, K, L and so forth will have lots more logs available for sale at 350 to 360 each. ~q

Most items sell for less in bulk in any market, but the discrepancy between the individual sale and bulk sale price is a function of just how lousy the market is. The GE will (hopefully) suck less than what we have now. This means that there is a possibility that rather than prices just going down wholesale, there will instead be a convergence between the 1-off and large-volume prices. Right now if I need just one p++ and I can't get into w2, I probably have to pay 15k or 20k to entice someone to make a trade with me. Conversely, if I have 100 of them to sell I might have to take 7k for them. With the GE, it may be possible instead that all the people who just want one can get it for 8k, and the people selling them would get 8k as well (less fees). Both producers AND consumers win -- the only one that loses is the merchant who used to act as a go-between.

The buying/selling inefficiency comes from the current primitive markets. To take some other examples... I can make amulets of glory from dragonstones, but I never do. Why? Because I don't want to spend time either standing in a zoo like W2 Fally selling them 1 or 2 or 5 at a time, or world hopping and dealing with people who can't read simple instructions on the forums. Same with super weapon poisons and a lot of other items. I don't make them because I don't want to spend time selling them. It's not they are bad things to make, they are just too annoying to sell. And the same also goes for items that require hard-to-get raw materials. Another good example... battlestaffs for crafting. There is basically no market for these right now -- there will be after the GE gets going, I believe.

You're mistaken, IMO. It's very efficient to produce a lot of items that are currently not produced only because they cannot be easily sold. I don't think we'll be going to agree on this point, but I think it's nice to summarize it anyway... The problem we're getting into here is that we are observing two things: - There are few people willing to make such items (lack of bulk supply) - There are few people willing to buy such items (lack of bulk demand) Now we both agree on those statements being true, however our approaches to it are different: - qeltar: there are few people "aware" of the existance of the items and thus few people buy them (demand side) what in turn results in few people making them (supply side) - me: there is little production due to it being inefficient to produce those items (supply side) what in turn results in few people buying them, because it is practically impossible to buy them in bulk (demand side) We're talking past each other because of the use of two different meanings of the word "efficient". What I meant was that there are activities that are efficient in terms of them being worth doing from a cost/XP standpoint, that players will not do because it is too inefficient from a buying/selling standpoint. These are what I think the GE will change. Again, as a simple example.. I like making high-level pies but I HATE making pie crust/shells. Now, you can make pie shells at a very low level, and even on F2P. I have in the past been willing to pay up to 1,000 gp each for these things, which is pretty good money for easy work. It's worth it to me to pay that much. But I can't find anyone willing to do it, because there's currently no efficient way to let people know that I want them. I'm hoping the GE will change that.

Yes, that's true. I used the term in a simplified manner, bearing in mind that my audience here is not college econ majors. :) I did mention both elasticity of demand and supply. Actually, I mean both that type of good AND markets that right now do not exist because the markets are so poor that the few numbers of buyers and sellers cannot find each other. Yes, in many cases that happens now. You got it.

So all you have to do is pick up your slayer cape but no other skill capes to get an untrimmed one, right? Or did you mean it trims itself when a second skill reaches 99? Once you get your second 99, then your first 99's skill cape automatically trims once you level the second. Aw, that stinks. I like my untrimmed HP cape. :(

Agreed 100%.

The problem is an inability of those who want the items to find those who are willing to make them. For example, I like making wild pies but I HATE making pie shells. I have in the past offered to pay very good money for them, but I can never find anyone who's willing to do it. Why? Because 30 seconds after I post about it on the Food forum of the RSOF, the thread is pushed down by dozens of "buying/selling sharks/lobbies" posts. I'm hoping the GE will make it easier for people to find those who want to buy or sell these specialty items. You're mistaken, IMO. It's very efficient to produce a lot of items that are currently not produced only because they cannot be easily sold. If there's an oversupply now, then the price will of course drop. It will never approach alch value because if it does, slayers will just alch them on the spot, causing supply to decrease and the price to go back up. That's my basic point. Different kind of inefficiency, in this case one designed to prevent "churning" (buying and reselling the same things over and over.) This directly harms merchants far more than it does regular players. That's true.. though fundamentals (like markets not suddenly crashing due to a new means of exchange) do generally hold true. That comment was prefaced with "My guess is that...". Please keep claims about prior comments in context. Psychological effects apply only to a very small number of items and markets. Most items in the game trade very simply and unemotionally based on a pure value/price equation.

You're mistaken. West was commissioned to write the book by Jagex, and Jagex employees were involved in its creation. The copyright notice on the book says "Copyright © 2006 Jagex Limited. All Rights Reserved." Nothing about Tracey West. It was and is Jagex's book. I have a copy of it right in front of me. The writing, the style and the text are all clearly indicative of a book targeted at children. Yes, the article is rather harsh. Bear in mind that it was written months ago, at a time when Jagex had delivered a swift slap in the face to law-abiding players by legalizing wilderness luring. They compounded that mistake by sending their F mod lackies into the forums to shut down anyone who tried to inform others of this or, heaven forbid, complain about it. When that happened, and I found out about the kiddie guide they made to the game, I got quite angry. I was not alone. The game has gotten better now, but not enough. Parents are responsible for monitoring their children. Corporations are responsible for not marketing products to children if they are intended for teens and adults. One does not absolve the other. Is it? How many times per day do we read complaints about the game having been "dumbed down", made "too easy", given too many new "help features", etc.? It's not just "one book". It's the only official guide to the game, made by Jagex and marketed directly to kids using a kids' book publisher. Why would they do that? Here's a link to the book. Note the age range? "9 and up". How about this? I guess he's just a 13 year old who got held back? :) Personal experience by many people who know very young kids playing it. You're not looking at the issue rationally.

Is this really true? So I'm going to soon lose my untrimmed HP cape? :(

No, the 13+ rule is designed to cover Jagex's legal rear end, while allowing them to continue to expand their memberbase with kids of all ages. Already covered. Read the thread, please. No, it isn't. Read the thread, please. Read the thread, please. :)

I think you should read the thread because you obviously didn't.

What you and a few others are still failing to acknowledge is that Jagex makes it exceedingly difficult for even conscientious parents to take the responsibility for their kids that you think they should. In effect, the company makes an 'end run' AROUND the parents to get kids excited about the game and to allow them to access it without approval. For example: 1. You mention parents "buying GTA for their kids and then complaining". Well here there is nothing to buy. This alone is a HUGE factor in kids playing the game. I consider that indisputable. 2. They have created a game that is ridiculously easy to access and play nearly anywhere, which is not the case with most other games. Even if I don't want my kid playing it at home, he can play it almost anywhere else. 3. Jagex has done NOTHING to block access to the game or to educate librarians or others that the game should not be used by children. It is easy to get onto Runescape almost anywhere. 4. Jagex make the game LOOK child-friendly and appealing to kids. 5. They market the game directly to kids, in schools. Parents cannot be there to watch what happens in school all day. 6. They provide virtually NO tools for parents who want to monitor their kids' activity. I know, because I am one, and I have corresponded with other parents who want to keep track of how and when their kids play but cannot. I'm afraid that RuneScape is becoming the "Joe Camel" of computer games.

Thanks for all the replies and comments everyone, much appreciated. A few replies... What you are describing is called cornering the market. It has a lot of people concerned but in practice it won't happen. Here's why. First, in order to do this, the people must have a way of monopolizing the entire market for the item. With something like nats that will be virtually impossible. A billion gold sounds like a lot, but that's only around 3 million runes, which is only a few thousand players spending 1 hour each runecrafting. The market is MUCH larger than that. If he tries doing this and runs out of money, he won't move the market and will be stuck with a huge stockpile of runes that he'll have to dump at a loss. Second, as swordwarior said, remember that the GE will supplement other methods of trading, not replace them. If the price of nats drives up on the GE, people will stop buying there and will buy in other places. Third, assuming Jagex is smart about how they design this, you will be able to list items you want to buy in addition to ones you want to sell. Suppose this guy did buy out all the runes for sale and then was the only seller and listed them at 300. Buyers who didn't want to pay 300 would make offers like "buying 10k nats 285 ea". Sellers would take these offers directly and cut the wanna-be monopolist out entirely. Could be. Interesting theory. Duke, thanks for the detailed replies. Have to disagree with you here. There are many markets that I believe don't exist, or exist but are miniscule, only because right now there is no way for the small numbers of buyers and sellers to find each other. Examples: good alternative food items (pineapple pizzas, various types of potatoes etc.), chompy meat (lots of cooks want them but chompy hunters often don't know they are wanted), low-level herb seeds (high level players have tons but can't be bothered trying to sell them), mid-level slayer drops (addy boots, etc.) and a lot more. Yes.. and also, finished goods are going to drop in price. Especially at first, because of people dumping their banks. It may be a good time to buy up some of these items if you need them (gold bars, cooked low-level fish etc.) Not necessarily. The profit a merchant makes is directly a function of how inefficient the market is. Furthermore, if there are fees to use the exchange, those may eat up any small profit that merchants may make -- end buyers and sellers usually won't care much about paying 3% or whatever for the convenience, but to merchants that could put them out of business. I perhaps was unclear. What I really meant was that it was not good for the game to require people to fill that role. As for jealousy, yawn. There's nothing to be jealous of. Well.. there are a lot of people with experience in the RS markets who are screaming about crashes, but I've never met anyone who knew about economics who would agree even if they had never played the game. So I'll have to disagree here. Price elasticity is not a "largely theoretical concept". It is a simplified concept to which other factors apply, such as you said, but it is real and is what forces markets to equilibrium. You are right that this comes into effect in some situations, but usually only in markets that are either new or already volatile. For example, we saw some of this "panic dumping" earlier in the year when shark prices started to go down. But this is the exception to the rule. In most cases, shifts in the prices of basic goods will cause changes in demand and supply to counteract them, like the examples I gave.

I've just published an extensive new "sneak preview" of the Grand Exchange. My feeling is that the GE is going to be the most important update to hit RS in years, so I felt it was worth taking some time to take a look at in advance. The article is very long and detailed, containing a full analysis of what I think the exchange will be like, what the major issues are behind it, what markets and players it will impact and a whole lot more. I also discuss why the "economy is crashing" stuff is nonsense and make some suggestions for players and for Jagex. It's called TruthScape Sneak Previews - Why the Grand Exchange Could be RuneScapeÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s Most Important Update in Years. I'd love to hear your comments and thoughts. The article is too long to publish in its entirety here, but to spur discussion I've included three sections here, which I think you may find particularly interesting. Preview of The Grand Exchange - "Most Important Update in Years?" WhatÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s the Big Deal? IÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ve had occasion to speak with a number of RuneScape players who are completely mystified as to why so many people are speculating about the Grand Exchange (GE). They see it as just another way of trading, and heck, we already have ways of trading now, right? While I agree that some folks are going completely off the deep end about thisÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Ã

Ekim, as much as I appreciated your support, those who have responded to you are right. If you use others' words, you must give them credit. Solidus, you're a smart guy and better than this sort of comment. Did you even read the thread before responding? This argument has been addressed several times. Maybe you're just being a bit too defensive? Again, this just shows that you didn't read the thread. And for crying out loud, people, be a little less ovine in terms of swallowing what you are fed by big corporations. Just because a lawyer made them put "13+" on their website doesn't mean the game actually is only 13+. Which facts are wrong? The author (me) is mainly blaming Jagex for playing a charade of running a game for 13+ players while simultaneously targeting and advertising its game towards pre-teens and elementary school students.

Just so you know, there are other places where these trees can be found as well.

Okay, well, that's what I meant. It's not worth it. Thanks. :)

My comment was a reply to your claim that since we're also animals we should act like other animals do. Well, we aren't "just another species on the planet." Killing animals is necessary in some places, and not in others. There are hundreds of millions of people around the world who survive - and more - without eating meat. I don't have any problem with killing deer or other animals when there is an honest and reasonable justification for it. I DO have a problem when people try to justify it on the basis of myths and invalid rationalizations, such as claiming that being a vegetarian results in a comparable number of deaths to eating meat. You don't? It seems rather simple to me. Earlier you referred me to an article about Steven Davis, right? His entire thesis is based on the "Least Harm Principle", and that's exactly what I'm talking about, so I don't know why you are confused. No, they would say the guy who killed 10,000 was less bad than the one who killed 50,000. In this post you claimed that humans "need to kill animals to survive". If it's based on a need for survival, how can the number of animals killed for this need not be relevant? Sport fishing is, IMO, one of the worst forms of animal abuse. If you eat the fish, that's different. I leave alone insects that leave me alone. Those that attack me I defend myself against. Again, a simple principle. So you feel it's okay to use that as an excuse to not even make an effort to improve?

Soloing any of the bosses is nearly impossible even with maxed stats. Go with a team.