Forecasted Price Changes due to Update

[TheAncient]

Yes, I do realize there is already a post on the economic implications of today's update. My opinions/focus, however, differ from the other post. There may be some redundancy but that is my attempt to touch on everything. Some of my points also go against what the other author has to say.

 

 

Forecasted Effects of the Shop Update

 

Macro Focus

 

[hide=1) Deflation]

 

Since more people are buying things from stores, more GP is taken away from the game. Thus, the overall amount of GP will decrease in Runescape. This usually has the effect of decreasing price of items with nonspecified price.[/hide]

 

[hide=2) Rare Prices Decrease]

 

The growth of rares depends heavily on inflation; more people with cash leads to more buyers of hats leads to higher prices. With less cash, less people will be able to afford rares, meaning less buyers and lower prices.[/hide]

 

[hide=3) Small Amount Commodity Prices Decrease]

 

Small Amount Commodity = any standard items (Runes, Arrows) sold in small (~<10K) amounts.

 

For items in small quantities, commodities will decrease in price. Many buyers will buy from the infinite stores of commodities in shops, rather than from other players. For all of those people with extra stockpiles of runes, this means they have less people to sell to (lower demand) and therefore lower prices.[/hide]

 

[hide=4) High Amount Commodity Prices Increase]

 

High Amount Commodity = any standard items (Runes, Arrows) sold in large (~>10K) amounts.

 

Anyone buying large amounts of a commodity will now buy the commodity from shops instead of players. Since shops typically charge higher than the current market price, these buyers will effectively be paying more.[/hide]

 

 

 

Micro Focus

 

[hide=1) Fury Prices Fall]

 

The maximal price for furies is now 3.72M (26K * 140). Since there is already a large supply of furies, sellers will typically sell below this price since buyers logically would buy from the store otherwise. Also, if chaos rune prices decrease (see next bullet), so does fury price.[/hide]

 

[hide=2) Combat Rune (Chaos, Death) Price Decreases]

 

There is a large supply for these runes (Barrows). Under the same logic for furies, the price will decrease and is capped at 140/Chaos, 310/Death.[/hide]

 

[hide=3) Alternate Spell Rune Price Increases]

 

Alternate Spell = Cosmic, Nature, Astral, Law

 

There is not a large supply for these runes (except for maybe natures, but those are in high demand too). Therefore, people will more likely buy from stores than players, and players will sell close to store prices.[/hide]

 

 

 

Speculative

 

[hide=1) Food Prices Fall]

 

See wakka's discovery. 15HP food for ~160 GP means that less people will be buying sharks and monks.[/hide]

 

[hide=2) Potion Prices Fall]

 

The cost for making potions has decreased, due to infinite water vials.[/hide]

 

[hide=3) Slayer Items (Whip, DB) Fall]

 

(This is EXTREMELY speculative)

 

(Requires more information - does the ogre shop store any raw chompies?)

 

Wild pies have become easier to make due to infinite stores of raw rabbit and bear. This means more slayers of abby demons, spiritual mages, and dark beasts, which means more drops of these slayer items. Increased supply leads to increased demand.[/hide]

 

[hide=4) More People with 99 Magic]

 

See my other post. It is now easy to train at 100K xp/hr.[/hide]

 

[hide=5) More People with 99 Fletching]

 

Feathers, arrowheads have become easier to obtain. 99 Fletching is easily buyable now (fletch Rune Arrowheads/Addy Arrowheads with headless arrows. Expensive, but ~300Kxp/hr+).[/hide]

 

[hide=6) Less People with 99 Cooking]

 

See bullet 1. Less people to buy from player cookers means that 99 Cooking will become more expensive.[/hide]

 

[hide=7) More People with 99 Range]

 

More fletchers = cheaper arrows; Bronze Knives = cheaper training.[/hide]

 

 

 

 

 

Discuss.

[spooferfish]

I like this update. Stupid bots. I found another good thing though, unlimited orange dyes + unlimited capes at varrock clothes shop: SPOOF WINS

 

 

 

I also like the thought of a constant price in shops..for now..i'll see after i see how it affects things. (i want to see it, not read about i here)

[Master_Smither]

Wow nice discovery that sums it all up :)

 

 

 

Also you seem to be well into the Runescape economy. Go you! \

 

 

 

Nice thread very organized btw

[Pan_Nx]

Yeah, i hope jagex changes this.

[BloodArgon]

Deflation is always a good thing, especially for people with CASH. Which is why my net worth in items is not very high.

 

 

 

Best thing to do? Get all the HARD CASH you can any way possible, and when you wait long enough, you will be able to buy most anything after enough time passes by.

[guzoliub]

The maximal price for furies is now 3.72M (26K * 140). Since there is already a large supply of furies, sellers will typically sell below this price since buyers logically would buy from the store otherwise. Also, if chaos rune prices decrease (see next bullet), so does fury price.

 

 

 

Last time i went for onyx, the shop in tzhaar was giving me 9 tokkul per chaos rune (after saturation). Is that changed to 10 now?

[jessy87]

broad arrows and pretty cheap to.

[ego_scorpion]

I strongly disagree with you on one point.

 

 

 

No matter what happens rares will never drop in price, but rather the opposite, they will keep going up in price in small or large amounts at a time.

 

 

 

Reason being? While more of every item are being introduced into the game constantly, party hat amount is fixed and is always decreasing, people getting banned or quitting and taking their hats with them.

 

 

 

Hats will keep climbing, the $ people save on supplies will be spent on rares.

[SwreeTak]

Nice to see a thread which disscuss all of the most important things with this new update. I'm a merchanter myself, but I'm not really an expert on the RS economy. So it's nice that you have given us some nice and handy information about this big update that will probalby affect pretty much of the RS economy.

 

Thank you!

[zeke2006]

PEOPLE WILL BE GETTING 99 FISHING ALOT QUICKER DIUE TO UNLIMITED FEATHERS

[Bobbington]

I strongly disagree with you on one point.

 

 

 

No matter what happens rares will never drop in price, but rather the opposite, they will keep going up in price in small or large amounts at a time.

 

 

 

Reason being? While more of every item are being introduced into the game constantly, party hat amount is fixed and is always decreasing, people getting banned or quitting and taking their hats with them.

 

 

 

Hats will keep climbing, the $ people save on supplies will be spent on rares.

 

 

 

Not correct actually.... around this time last year Green halloween masks where selling at 29.9mill then not long after the proce had droped to 17mill and they are only just comming back up now.

 

 

 

Updates and speculation effect the rares price more than quanity ever will.

[oropher]

I strongly disagree with you on one point.

 

 

 

No matter what happens rares will never drop in price, but rather the opposite, they will keep going up in price in small or large amounts at a time.

 

 

 

Reason being? While more of every item are being introduced into the game constantly, party hat amount is fixed and is always decreasing, people getting banned or quitting and taking their hats with them.

 

 

 

Hats will keep climbing, the $ people save on supplies will be spent on rares.

 

 

 

Not correct actually.... around this time last year Green halloween masks where selling at 29.9mill then not long after the proce had droped to 17mill and they are only just comming back up now.

 

 

 

Updates and speculation effect the rares price more than quanity ever will.

 

 

 

Quantity does have a huge effect on the rares market. This is only visible on the long run though, since the amount of rares doesn't decrease that fast. Updates and speculation both only have shortterm effects.

[Bini]

I'm not member and I don't know if members use Eye Of Newts alot but

 

won't Herblore be cheaper to train when you can get Eye Of Newts for 3gp each in unlimited amounts?

[krisc6]

I'm not member and I don't know if members use Eye Of Newts alot but

 

won't Herblore be cheaper to train when you can get Eye Of Newts for 3gp each in unlimited amounts?

 

problem is they dont stack so i think it will stay about teh same for eyes of newts

[mrmyk]

I will focus on your point on deflation. As we know from one of duke_freedom's posts, the RS economy has a very amount of money entering it each day. This update will not stop this, although it could possibly slow down for a while, there is still an increasing amount of money in runescape right now so deflation will not occur.

 

 

 

(I wish it would so higher prices for other items where most people buy the raw materials; rune items etc...).

[xpx]

If you are focused at making speculative economy reports like these, please, do get the facts straight before writing anything.

 

 

 

For your knowledge, onyx stone with karamja gloves costs 260,000 tokkul, chaos rune sells for in the shop for 9 tokkul ea. 260,000/9 is 28,888, not 26,000. so for calculations: 28,888*140=4,044,444 gp. Fury prices to fall? probably not.

 

 

 

Otherwise, nice report, most of should be true, but all we can do is wait and see.

[Makoto_the_Phoenix]

If you are focused at making speculative economy reports like these, please, do get the facts straight before writing anything.

 

 

 

For your knowledge, onyx stone with karamja gloves costs 260,000 tokkul, chaos rune sells for in the shop for 9 tokkul ea. 260,000/9 is 28,888, not 26,000. so for calculations: 28,888*140=4,044,444 gp. Fury prices to fall? probably not.

 

 

 

Otherwise, nice report, most of should be true, but all we can do is wait and see.

 

 

 

Actually, a fury costs even less than that with the Rune Ore + Karamja Gloves method. Since it takes about 232 ores to make a fury with the gloves on, and each ore costing one about 12K, that would make the cost near 2,784,000.

 

 

 

This method has been around for ages of course, and it is commonly practiced; I don't think Furies will fall much lower than 3.7M though.

[Sy_Accursed]

These economic results are based on things that aren't going to happen.

 

 

 

Macro

 

1) Shops are still more expensive than player markets. Therefore all bulk purchases and high end purchases will remain in the public sector. No extra gp will leave the3 game.

 

 

 

2) Rares have been dropping over past few years anywhere as new school players think they are largely pointless so demand is dying out.But again won't happen as there isn'tgoing to be deflation

 

 

 

3) & 4) People rare offer special low price unless u buy under 1k or 100. But these 2 are likely to a small extent

 

 

 

 

 

Micro Focus

 

All based on stupid economics. Prices will increase if anything, but will remian below shop price. Players will buy from players still to save money

 

 

 

Speculative

 

The foods source was always there, just more ppl will use it now. But saying that tuna potatoes r best food in game but most stick to lobs,monks and fish. Price change is highly unlikely

 

 

 

Potion prices wont fall as resource price is still higher than potion price and vials have always been the easy to get part. The costs comes from lvl, herbs and seconds which are harder to get.

 

 

 

Slayer as you say waaaaay off

 

 

 

The more 99s make no sense. Fishers hu use the fly fishing are usual hardcore players or skillers , the majority stick to the monks etc for the value. Rune prices aren't going to change much therefore costs of 99 magic dont change therefore no extra ppl getting it

 

 

 

Ranging is hard to train as it is and given shop price arrows are cheap now this one is viable. HOWEVER a vast majority of players only really like combat and teleporting.ranged is the least commonly used combat and therefore least likely to get surges of training.

 

 

 

 

 

I wish ppl would learn atleast the basic concepts of economics before trying to predict these ludicrous market changes.

[wakka102]

I agree with some of what you say but some of it is also wrong.

 

 

 

The price on Natures won't change because they are in high supply, even though the shops are selling for 347gp (I think?) people will still buy from people for 290-300 because they sell easily at that price. The shops will see no business as far as natures are concerned.

 

 

 

As much as we may need it, this won't stop deflation, the reason is due to alching. Just because more gp may be going out, its not going to be enough to combat the serious inflation of high alchemy. The large money drains from this update (runes namely) will not be enough of a drain because of the more expensive runes being higher than the street price, enough so that few people will buy these from the shop even though it's infinite.

[Defender2516]

I say the prices will fall but not to a heavy degree.

 

 

 

Think about it for a moment, who's going to buy your deaths for 300 each when at a easy convience you can buy X amount for only 10 gp more? Of course, we are talking about "Big Spenders" here, those who got 5+mil or more and are probably looking for over 1k stackable items.

 

 

 

On the other hand, for poor people or "less big spenders", they might still search for the bargains. However, with infinite supply now available to the masses, it won't be long before demand falls short.

 

 

 

Usually even a big spender runs out of runes, but now that they can buy a hell of a load that may last them their entire Runescape life, that puts 1 extra buyer out of the market.

 

 

 

So its basically going to role that inless you are attempting to save money and go for a long tedious process of finding 50,000 airs on sale, your most likely going to go hit the 50k 17gp stores.

 

 

 

I do love the fact that offensive spells such as bloods/deaths as well as arrows are now fully available as all you need would be cash. However, I think the economy is going to short itself a 50-100 gp on rune prices. You have to charge enough to say "bargain", but not so much that they would rather go to the store than buy your items.

 

 

 

Overall I hate how they basically capped prices over a certain amount, however I don't think the economy will be crashing anytime soon, I just believe prices will lower, except perhaps nats due to high alching.

[ktmcf121]

this update is pretty much just what i had expected, after checking out a few shops. rune prices are slightly higher than current market value, just enough to stop bots, but not enough to raise the price of runes all that much.

[fmv_hero]

nats, deaths, and chaos i always see sold for 290 280ish and 120 respectively. i don't think that the rune market will be damaged at all.

 

the only thing i can see decreasing is the food market, and that only slightly. there will always be a demand for raw fish and cooked sharks. as well it takes time to buy 1k of any non-stackable item, these could be sold on the market at a price slightly higher, maybe rounding up to the nearest hundred, for those who don't feel like spending 20 minutes or so buying food.

 

 

 

about rares, i hope to god that they don't fall, i'm sort of depending on my santa going UP during the christmas season so i can earn alittle cash.

[Adam007]

I think while you bring up some valid points on how some changes might effect markets, you're speculating they'll have a much larger effect than they will. Just because something might effect something else in a certain way doesn't mean it will go on in a high enough impact.

 

 

 

What I'm trying to say is hard to explain, but just because a certain variable may have changed doesn't mean that that variable is big enough to make the impact you're thinking it will.

 

 

 

Like if jagex added a respawn point with a pile of 10 chaos runes, people might speculate that since so many chaos runes were added for free their prices will go down.

 

 

 

On the grand scale of things though, even though theoretically it might effect supply, the effect will be negligible. And I think that applies to most of your speculations.

[Greedom1]

On the grand scale of things though, even though theoretically it might effect supply, the effect will be negligible. And I think that applies to most of your speculations.

 

 

 

Agreed.

[123Yourgone]

Rares wont fall, and to the person who mentioned rares prices dropped from last year..

 

Last year, r2pleasent, cursedyou,cursedy0u,duke freedom, raven999, iodio, guildfinder, tugrul88, and fubupower (all of them rs billionares) were banned, the massive prices were a reflection of the markets concerns of massive rare losses to the game, the price has since stabilised again.