Do you believe in such thing...

[Platinum_Myr]

I was thinking about drops and randomness the other day. If you kill a monster in a quest, it will drop it's key or whatever you're supposed to get from it. However, if you decide to train on it later, it will no longer drop the key. This says to me that the monsters are specifically generated for the individual, so maybe drops aren't as random as believed?

 

 

 

Granted, I fail at computers, so I don't know how any of this works, just throwing it out there.

 

Programmers, please don't pwn me too badly? :P

 

 

 

That'd just be a simple check when that monster dies.

 

 

 

If Player.QuestStatus(QuestID) = SpecificNumber then Monster.Drop(ItemID)

 

 

 

Also might perform another check to see if you have item in your bank or inventory/equipment

 

 

 

As to the user who said about people mentioning Nothing is random don't know what they're talking about. I'm do a degree in Computer Science, I know what I'm talking about.

 

 

 

Nice, what kind of CS?

 

I've done a course in game design (which didn't fit in my study) and I might start a minor about technical computer science later this year (which is about how the data transfer is in a computer and how that translates into a language).

 

 

 

But the point I tried to bring across is that simply saying "randoms don't exists" is too shortsighted: first of all basic quantum mechanics they physically do exists. And when talking about game design (which after all, the programmers at JAGEX are), it's simply a useless statement: true randomness isn't needed!

 

 

 

Also I said before: it's a very bad thing to have a negative influx here.. especially without people knowing it. You should "reward" people for playing your game! If all there would be a possitive random change: the longer you are somewhere the more likely the rewards get.

 

 

 

You're right, in that real random numbers aren't needed. But what the guy above you said about "quantum" randomness, it's not quite right. Yes, quantum mechanics has randomness at the molecular and atomic levels, but we are no where NEAR close to making use of that for a random number generator. The way a computer is now, it's deterministic. So if you start with the same seed, you WILL get the same results.

 

 

 

We just change the seed based on things like human interactions, or time or something.

 

 

 

In terms of a game, we only need it to "feel" random to humans, not actually be random, because the human doesn't care.

 

 

 

The reason we as people feel like it's stressed towards doing "random" tasks = better rewards, is simple. (This is just guessing and speculation, not fact/science) As creatures, we're pattern seekers. Our minds and memories focus on the things which fit the pattern, and don't really recall all the times that it doesn't fit. Try putting your music library on shuffle for a while. Sometimes you'll notice patterns, like "wow, it's playing certain songs one after the other" but often you're not focusing on when it doesn't do that.

 

 

 

It is "technically" possible to balance drops based on "farming" but it's not really worthwhile to the developers... It's extra processing for an invisible change to the player. Not really worth it...

[Platinum_Myr]

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

 

 

Math.random()

 

 

 

It's a simple line of text that generates a number from 0-1. Randomly.

 

 

 

Do me a favor and write out the algorithm for this function.

 

 

 

And remember, make sure it's completely random! :thumbsup:

 

 

 

Randomness is only an illusion. There is almost always a specific reason why something happens (it just may be that we don't know what is causing that reason). For example, it is not random that I am sitting here typing this specific combination of letters and spaces; I am choosing to type them. To one who does not know what each of these letters mean, it may just seem like random typing.

 

 

 

With a Random Number Generator, it chooses some aspect (ideally an ever-changing one), applies a very complex formula to it, and comes out with an answer that gives the illusion of randomness. Time, as was mentioned, is almost always picked. A good formula would probably be able to use the Day, Month, Year, Hour, Minute and Second (possibly even Milliseconds) and create a formula whose repetition loop takes a conceptual infinite time to reach.

 

 

 

Even rolling a die isn't completely random. Its results can be affected in so many ways...

 

 

 

What number was it showing while in your hand?

 

How quickly did you drop it?

 

Was your hand sweaty, sticky, or something else?

 

What was its rotational velocity?

 

How does the die hit the table?

 

Is the table hard like Glass or soft like Fabric?

 

 

 

Now then, this all being said, random occurrences only occur at specific moments when conditions align (where the likeliness of such an occurrence increases as possible options approach 1 and decreases as possible options approach infinity). It can be programmed such that certain factors such as Time (how long as character been within [X1,Y1]-[X2,Y2]), Current Action (If combat=no then Factor=1), Previous Actions (Factor + MonsterKill = Factor2), and all that good stuff...

 

 

 

Sliding away from my momentary moment of Nerdiness, the answer would be no, I doubt Jagex would've done something like this. Although I must admit, I got my first Dragon drop ever at combat 113 at Dust Devils (which was a Dragon Chainbody). Would Jagex have programmed it so that my first Dragon drop would be the best one possible? No. Do I believe that luck has a sense of humor? Absolutely.

 

 

 

That's not entirely true. Randomness does occur in nature, at the quantum (atomic scale). It's been proven that we cannot know precisely both an object's velocity and it's location at the same time. The more closely we know it's velocity, the less accurate our perception of it's location. This leads to various conclusions in which a different outcome occurs even though EVERY SINGLE input is the same. That's randomness.

 

 

 

But in programming there is no randomness, because it's deterministic. it uses a mathematical algorithm.

[dru89]

I wouldn't put it past the game designers to put some kind of a boolean on there that says "If the player gets one of these drops: a, b, c (where a, b, and c are all rare) turn getting any rare items from this monster (or maybe all monsters) off for a bit."

 

 

 

But I could very well be wrong. =)

[Seogege]

Penalties, randomness, and luck? Well, let me take a moment to comprehend what you're on about... Alright, so lets first talk about randomness and luck put together. Random is defined as: "Having no specific pattern, purpose, or objective" by the American Heritage Dictionary. Luck is defined as: "The chance happening of fortunate or adverse events." by the same dictionary. Notice, chance. It is defined as: "The unknown and unpredictable element in happenings that seems to have no assignable cause." Unpredictable is what I am trying to point out. Meaning, chance is something that is complete random. Random is something that has no pattern. So chance therefore, should have no pattern? But how can anything have "no specific pattern, purpose, or objective? Only one thing that is known to the public apparently, and that's atmospheric noise. The proof that the Big Bang actually occurred. Radiation that was left behind that is scattered across the universe, but most widely recognized as "white noise" or the black and white dots on your television.

 

 

 

Now this "white noise" is supposedly natural, and therefore has the possibility to be "random". Penalties are caused by something having too much, or too little, and even things out. Think of diffusion in blood cells. When there is too much or too little water in one, they change the amount to be equal. Now if youre getting too lucky, the universe says, you are too lucky, lets give you some bad luck. Now here's the big point of this all. When a computer tries to replicate this luck-bad luck balance, it comes up with something that appears to have a pattern. Why? One, because the inner workings of a computer is programmed. It cannot change how it acts, and therefore cannot act perfectly natural. Add this all together and you get the fact that, what appears to be luck is really something artificial. My point? Humans and computers will never be able to predict how they themselves work. That disproves, but also in a way, proves your theory. Confusing? That's for you to decide.

 

 

 

 

That's not entirely true. Randomness does occur in nature, at the quantum (atomic scale). It's been proven that we cannot know precisely both an object's velocity and it's location at the same time. The more closely we know it's velocity, the less accurate our perception of it's location. This leads to various conclusions in which a different outcome occurs even though EVERY SINGLE input is the same. That's randomness.

 

 

 

Haha, yes that too. I remember that law, although I forgot the name of the man who discovered it. This reinforces what I said that only nature can be "accurately" random (although it is a bit ironic that one must be accurate to be inaccurate).

[Raven6666]

To the OP, I've known about something similar to the "hidden accumulative penalty" for a while, although I couldn't reproduce it in some situations.

 

 

 

A few years ago (still in the RS2 days), I used to "train" at the Draynor prison. When I accidentally clicked a tree instead of one of the guards, a Drunken Dwarf appeared. I found this odd, since I wasn't carrying a woodcutting axe, and hence the click shouldn't have registered, but it did. After about another 20 or so minutes, I clicked a tree again, different tree this time as well. Another Drunken Dwarf appeared.(Note, I did talk to the DD's and take their offerings.) However after another 30 minutes from that, no event when clicking a tree. BUT on the next day I was trying something similar, I got a Tree Spirit. Note as above, I did not have a woodcutting axe. After a few more times, I got a swarm amongst other nothings.

 

Couldn't repeat these results in a similar fashion elsewhere.

 

 

 

The various representations of "random" and "by chance" being submitted here can be somewhat true, depending on how you look at it. I remember JAGeX saying something about the RoW affecting drops on a 2-wheel basis (one 360 degree wheel, and a section of that wheel was split up into another 360 degrees). There is somewhat a type of randomness to it, but not to the complexity of being totally random. Some codes in RuneScape are just on a loop, but the loop may take days to get through, and even when there are updates, the loop may pick up where it left off, or even start in a different manner. There have been various reports over the years about people who knew the games' timers extremely well and the patterns too, one being where a player, in the Agility Arena, was able to predict where the Tag Pillars were before they popped up. This may have been extensive knowledge or possibly a program reading something through the RS applet.

 

 

 

Recently, I hadn't been active on RS for the best part of about 2 or 3 months. When I came back earlier this week, I didn't dive straight into any killing or actions, just moving around and chatting. A friend suggested GWD, so I went. That night, within the first few kills of Kree, I got an Armadyl Skirt (it was a random RSOF mass with CS spltting, I got 664k). Similar events have happened as well, after a few of my breaks, my luck seemed to be somewhat higher than usual, could be the work of the penalties wearing off (i'm thinking some areas have a lasting penalty, such as the bosses areas, so when you have a drop declared, then you as a singular shouldn't get one for a while, until it wears off.

 

 

 

I can see JAGeX favouring penalties, such as in BH where you kill and loot someone that isn't your target, and in FoG where you're being hunted.

[Lakitsym_Rose]

I killed around 6k Dusties total for 64-75 Range, 84-85 Range, and 87-90 Strength, with no chain, while my friend got a chain after 28 Dusties on a Slayer Task. So it seems plausible.

[tuggernongy]

the problem with randomness is you can never be truly sure it's random. :)

[dru89]

 

That's not entirely true. Randomness does occur in nature, at the quantum (atomic scale) [level]. It's been proven that we cannot know precisely both an object's velocity and it's location at the same time. The more closely we know it's velocity, the less accurate our perception of it's location. This leads to various conclusions in which a different outcome occurs even though EVERY SINGLE input is the same. That's randomness.

 

 

 

How can this be an accurate theory? Isn't one of the major points of calculus to disprove that? Granted, I could be very wrong, and this may not apply on the quantum level, but I'm curious. >_>

 

 

 

Okay, not stealing topic, back to conversation. :D Sorry, was intrigued for a minute there.

 

I still think there's probably some sort of boolean in there. Maybe a bit more complex than I described, but it seems plausible.

[BloodArgon]

A few years ago (still in the RS2 days), I used to "train" at the Draynor prison. When I accidentally clicked a tree instead of one of the guards, a Drunken Dwarf appeared. I found this odd, since I wasn't carrying a woodcutting axe, and hence the click shouldn't have registered, but it did. After about another 20 or so minutes, I clicked a tree again, different tree this time as well. Another Drunken Dwarf appeared.(Note, I did talk to the DD's and take their offerings.) However after another 30 minutes from that, no event when clicking a tree. BUT on the next day I was trying something similar, I got a Tree Spirit. Note as above, I did not have a woodcutting axe. After a few more times, I got a swarm amongst other nothings.

 

Couldn't repeat these results in a similar fashion elsewhere.

 

 

 

Randoms are triggered by outcast actions. Iv had times where I hadnt gotten a random in ages, and, so, when I go and bury bones, or click an object, I got a random.

 

 

 

Your statement also reflects this, however, if you knew anything about java, then you would know that it obviously registered a click to tell you that you didnt have a wc axe.

 

if (atObject == tree) {

doRandom();

if (player.HasAxe() == true)

{

startChopping();

} else {

sendMessage(NoAxe);

}

}

 

As you can see, it doesnt matter if you have an axe or not, it still can preform the doRandom (which would decide if you get one or not and give it)

[Troacctid]

I killed around 6k Dusties total for 64-75 Range, 84-85 Range, and 87-90 Strength, with no chain, while my friend got a chain after 28 Dusties on a Slayer Task. So it seems plausible.

 

Uh, am I missing something? Because I don't see how this proves anything at all.

 

 

 

Anyway:

 

[Omar]

I got 11 black masks in a week (I think I should update my sig), next, week, I got NONE. Maybe you're right.

[Aneron]

I don't believe it, I think it's "random" (although it's been pointed out there is no such thing).

 

 

 

The reason theories like this arise is because you hear more about people with extraordinarily good/bad luck than people with ordinary luck lol.

[Troacctid]

I got 11 black masks in a week (I think I should update my sig), next, week, I got NONE. Maybe you're right.

 

Again, what's that supposed to prove? I can flip a coin and get a string of 10 heads, then a string of 10 tails. It doesn't mean that the probability of one flip is affected by the outcome of the others.

[AlexDT]

Look at my stats. Then, take into account that my best drop ever has been a black mystic robe bottom, and I've done many a barrows or Graardor trip.

 

No, I don't think such a thing exists.

[MasterSamus]

i really like ur theory since it would cancel all the tediousness of certain aspects of MMORPGs, but i dont think game developpers would do that. It's still an interesting theory and would make a great concept!

 

 

 

and i dont think it works like that in rs

 

 

 

my friend happened to acquire 12 rune scimmys in 1 day while fighting cockroaches in Stronghold of Player Safety

[Omar]

Then again there's been talk of drop rates being nerfed/changed for black masks lately. So I wouldn't base it on that.

[Residua]

A computer program can't do anything at random. The closest you can come to random is a complex algorithm.

 

 

 

Nailed it.

 

 

 

whut about a random numbar generatire!?!!!11!!shift!!!!!

 

 

 

most nubby post award 2008

 

 

 

Yeah, you win that award. :thumbsup:

[iLootChests]

Is everything that happen in game "random" or in games designed by computer programmers such thing does not exist and is genericly modified?

 

 

 

Long time ago while playing other game i read one thread where poster had a huge theory he worked on for quite a long,so he came with some sort of a guide what actually happens if you attend to do one activity over and over again for gaining benifits such as profit and drops.

 

 

 

He claimed that there is somthing like "hidden penaily" related to certain area of a game - if you used to "farm = kill monsters" in one area for quite a long of time hoping you will get all the good drops constantly and make profit by just doing that, system restricts you and adds a penality. (Some people on this forum said bout how they were so "lucky" to get all the best drops from barrow chest on their first trips,and they called it "begenner's luck",however i found it very common). It was also mentioned that if you do some other kind of activity for healthy amount of time,those penalities dissapear (altho not completely) and you are able to get as much as profit as you could before

 

 

 

I don't believe this theory could apply litterary knowing that some people really end up getting good drop in the end after repeating their trips,but still i "smell" there must be somthing of this kind

 

 

 

If you are familiar with this kind of thing plz tell me more about it and your oppinion on this (I am hoping for some programmer 2 read this thread and post an oppinion).

 

 

 

It can be this theory is totally false,but from my experience I think it isn't.The main reason why programmers would do this would be to stop somthing common in old runesacpe - autoers for example, and on the other side stop people who "discovered" new way to bring them tons of gold ,which leads to disadvantage somehow. I do believe that kind of rule would apply in Runescape the most of all other games because of direction Runescape was leading to since they added balanced trades and stuff like that.Just makes me believe in this even more.However there is no way to prove this theory wrong or false,but I want to see what other people think,if you got any kind of intuition related to this coming from their personal experience feel free to post...

can u explain this to me in a pm? bcuz i have no idea wat u meen

[green9090]

most nubby post award 2008

 

Have you ever read Youtube comments? You don't even make the top 1000 of this year.

[child_sycopath]

I'de say it might exist. I got my first dragon legs drop after like, 20 steels. Ive killed AT LEAST 250 more and havent got another dragon drop or visage since.

 

 

 

 

 

That is nothing

 

 

 

Barrows - 25-30 Trips before i got a drop

 

DKs - 3 Long Duo trips before we got a drop

 

GWD - 5 Trips (not including mass) before i got a drop and im around 900 Boss kills without a hilt.

 

 

 

No such thing as begginner luck.

 

 

 

Its like a wheel of luck, Everytime you kill somthing you spin the wheel, Common drops are big sections While there is a section that says "RARE" that is very small In there For example will be "hilt" Very small, "sara sword" Bigger but still small And "shard" Reasonably big.

 

 

 

Thats how i remember somone describing it, coulnt find the quote though.

[iLootChests]

most nubby post award 2008

 

Have you ever read Youtube comments? You don't even make the top 1000 of this year.

lol thts so true