Drop rates of Dlegs and Visage?

[gorgoroth]

Well it does make a little more sense now :)

 

 

 

BTW Kansberekening is something like Chance-calculation. Not 100% sure on that one but i know for sure what kansberekening means lol, its a word in my language too :)

[pureprayer]

Ok so with a .99 or 1% chance after 2 kills what about in 100 kills? 50% chance, 200 kills is 100% chance.

 

 

 

Its hard to explain you can ask compfreak about it.

[homowz]

Ok so with a .99 or 1% chance after 2 kills what about in 100 kills? 50% chance, 200 kills is 100% chance.

 

 

 

Its hard to explain you can ask compfreak about it.

 

it seems hard since you still dont want to understand it... anyway comp doesnt have to explain ty, got enough maths to be good enough in it...

 

 

 

also, after 200 kills (with a chance rate of 1/200) you got 64% chance of getting a visage (which is very high it seems so i will apologise to every1 for my wrong guess of 1/150, it will more likely be 1/500 or 1/600)

[sadukar123]

Ok so with a .99 or 1% chance after 2 kills what about in 100 kills? 50% chance, 200 kills is 100% chance.

 

 

 

Its hard to explain you can ask compfreak about it.

 

it seems hard since you still dont want to understand it... anyway comp doesnt have to explain ty, got enough maths to be good enough in it...

 

 

 

also, after 200 kills (with a chance rate of 1/200) you got 64% chance of getting a visage (which is very high it seems so i will apologise to every1 for my wrong guess of 1/150, it will more likely be 1/500 or 1/600)

 

You better start changing those numbers to 1/10000 or prove it with REAL numbers, or compfreak with prove you wrong AND humiliate you.

[homowz]

well if he really proves me wrong I can handle that. also I will have had a nice discussion :thumbsup: also since there are no exact numbers available i cant use them (well i dont have no real numbers anyway :P )

[Laura]

I don't understand why you guys are trying to even scratch the surface. The drop rate is near incalculable in a game where killing over 100,00 dragons is close to impossible. Guesses are fruitless in this situation, because data from a reference greater than one is unreliable and therefor false. That said, until someone one kills and logs each kill at any given point for over 100,000 dragons we will not know the drop rate. And even logging those kills would provide little to no evidence on the reliability and accuracy of the drop rate let alone evidence supporting the user's claims.

[pureprayer]

I don't understand why you guys are trying to even scratch the surface. The drop rate is near incalculable in a game where killing over 100,00 dragons is close to impossible. Guesses are fruitless in this situation, because data from a reference greater than one is unreliable and therefor false. That said, until someone one kills and logs each kill at any given point for over 100,000 dragons we will not know the drop rate. And even logging those kills would provide little to no evidence on the reliability and accuracy of the drop rate let alone evidence supporting the user's claims.

 

Its that its not 1/200 its more like 1/10000

[Laura]

I don't understand why you guys are trying to even scratch the surface. The drop rate is near incalculable in a game where killing over 100,00 dragons is close to impossible. Guesses are fruitless in this situation, because data from a reference greater than one is unreliable and therefor false. That said, until someone one kills and logs each kill at any given point for over 100,000 dragons we will not know the drop rate. And even logging those kills would provide little to no evidence on the reliability and accuracy of the drop rate let alone evidence supporting the user's claims.

 

Its that its not 1/200 its more like 1/10000

But that cannot be determined. It's based on a wide assortment of references and user experience.

[gorgoroth]

I don't understand why you guys are trying to even scratch the surface. The drop rate is near incalculable in a game where killing over 100,00 dragons is close to impossible. Guesses are fruitless in this situation, because data from a reference greater than one is unreliable and therefor false. That said, until someone one kills and logs each kill at any given point for over 100,000 dragons we will not know the drop rate. And even logging those kills would provide little to no evidence on the reliability and accuracy of the drop rate let alone evidence supporting the user's claims.

 

its 1:24 am in the morning therefore i have little to no idea what the hell you just ment, but it sounds very smart, so i will have to go by that.

 

 

 

**wow i have alot of comma's in my sentencess. :)

[Unknown_Warrior]

Lottery fallacy rules in this thread...

 

 

 

If you take the chance of visage as 1/10,000 (too high imo, but anyway) and let's say you've killed 100 Iron Dragons, there's a 0.99%* (better than the 0.1% you'd initially expect) chance you've gotten a Visage in those 100 kills. Let's take you've killed 500 dragons, You could think the odds are 5% now (500/10,000), but mathematics show your odds are now 4.9%. Take it higher, kill 2000 dragons, your mind'd think 20%, but you're only at 18%. And still: the chance of getting a Visage the next kill is still 0.1% (1/10,000). Seeing as the drops are independant of each other (and the rule of addition only applies to dependant calculations).

 

 

* ( 1-(9999/10,000)^100 )

 

 

 

 

 

Though, honestly, from what I've seen, the drop rate of a Draconic Visage should be more to the 1/1000. Don't underestimate this number (aka: OMG I KILLED 1.5K AND NO VISAGE!!!!) Because the chances of you having obtained the drop within those 1.5K kills is still only 77%, and you'll be probably be as unlucky the next drop as you were in your first.

 

Maybe it's even 1/500.

 

 

 

The drop rate on Dragon Legs and Skirts is, from hearsay, about 1/100. Give or take. Should still not be underestimated.

[Laura]

I don't understand why you guys are trying to even scratch the surface. The drop rate is near incalculable in a game where killing over 100,00 dragons is close to impossible. Guesses are fruitless in this situation, because data from a reference greater than one is unreliable and therefor false. That said, until someone one kills and logs each kill at any given point for over 100,000 dragons we will not know the drop rate. And even logging those kills would provide little to no evidence on the reliability and accuracy of the drop rate let alone evidence supporting the user's claims.

 

its 1:24 am in the morning therefore i have little to no idea what the hell you just ment, but it sounds very smart, so i will have to go by that.

 

 

 

**wow i have alot of comma's in my sentencess. :)

Do you use Wikipedia (or rather, should you) on school/work assignments? Same concept except worse because no one checks to see if your data is correct or even looks correct.

[homowz]

Lottery fallacy rules in this thread...

 

 

 

If you take the chance of visage as 1/10,000 (too high imo, but anyway) and let's say you've killed 100 Iron Dragons, there's a 0.99%* (better than the 0.1% you'd initially expect) chance you've gotten a Visage in those 100 kills. Let's take you've killed 500 dragons, You could think the odds are 5% now (500/10,000), but mathematics show your odds are now 4.9%. Take it higher, kill 2000 dragons, your mind'd think 20%, but you're only at 18%. And still: the chance of getting a Visage the next kill is still 0.1% (1/10,000). Seeing as the drops are independant of each other (and the rule of addition only applies to dependant calculations).

 

 

* ( 1-(9999/10,000)^100 )

 

 

 

 

 

Though, honestly, from what I've seen, the drop rate of a Draconic Visage should be more to the 1/1000. Don't underestimate this number (aka: OMG I KILLED 1.5K AND NO VISAGE!!!!) Because the chances of you having obtained the drop within those 1.5K kills is still only 77%, and you'll be probably be as unlucky the next drop as you were in your first.

 

Maybe it's even 1/500.

 

 

 

The drop rate on Dragon Legs and Skirts is, from hearsay, about 1/100. Give or take. Should still not be underestimated.

 

finally some1 that proves me right(well not totally but ur the only1 that really accepts that 1/10k is way to high)

 

 

 

@laura: i know it impossible of getting exact numbers for the drop rates, only jagex will have those and i dont think theyll give them 2 us... but what im (we are) doing here is discussing about guesses we make while we kept in regard the prices(read randomness) and the amount you will have to kill to be (almost) 100% sure to get a visage.

 

Since that amount is ~3000 (when using 1/500 drop rate) i found this an acceptable drop rate.

 

There will always be pll who disagree and my numbers wont ever be totally right, but since the OP asked what the drop rate might be, i tried to give him a number which will probably be close to the real answer.

[sadukar123]

Lottery fallacy rules in this thread...

 

 

 

If you take the chance of visage as 1/10,000 (too high imo, but anyway) and let's say you've killed 100 Iron Dragons, there's a 0.99%* (better than the 0.1% you'd initially expect) chance you've gotten a Visage in those 100 kills. Let's take you've killed 500 dragons, You could think the odds are 5% now (500/10,000), but mathematics show your odds are now 4.9%. Take it higher, kill 2000 dragons, your mind'd think 20%, but you're only at 18%. And still: the chance of getting a Visage the next kill is still 0.1% (1/10,000). Seeing as the drops are independant of each other (and the rule of addition only applies to dependant calculations).

 

 

* ( 1-(9999/10,000)^100 )

 

 

 

 

 

Though, honestly, from what I've seen, the drop rate of a Draconic Visage should be more to the 1/1000. Don't underestimate this number (aka: OMG I KILLED 1.5K AND NO VISAGE!!!!) Because the chances of you having obtained the drop within those 1.5K kills is still only 77%, and you'll be probably be as unlucky the next drop as you were in your first.

 

Maybe it's even 1/500.

 

 

 

The drop rate on Dragon Legs and Skirts is, from hearsay, about 1/100. Give or take. Should still not be underestimated.

 

finally some1 that proves me right(well not totally but ur the only1 that really accepts that 1/10k is way to high)

 

 

 

@laura: i know it impossible of getting exact numbers for the drop rates, only jagex will have those and i dont think theyll give them 2 us... but what im (we are) doing here is discussing about guesses we make while we kept in regard the prices(read randomness) and the amount you will have to kill to be (almost) 100% sure to get a visage.

 

Since that amount is ~3000 (when using 1/500 drop rate) i found this an acceptable drop rate.

 

There will always be pll who disagree and my numbers wont ever be totally right, but since the OP asked what the drop rate might be, i tried to give him a number which will probably be close to the real answer.

 

 

 

Actually Unkn hasn't all he did was prove the Lottery Fallacy.

[Unknown_Warrior]

Well yeah, I can't. And I probably never will be able to know for sure, unless I somehow get access to Jagex HQ...

 

But 1/1000 is an pretty accurate guesstimate IMHO, from the people I've seen getting a Visage and the kills they made to get it.

 

 

 

Another reason of the overexageration of numbers is people's warped memory, they tend to claim they "killed over 2K+ Iron Dragons to get a Dragon drop". I doubt they'd even pass 500 if you actually counted them.

 

 

 

Funny note: This can also be applied to nostalgic memories. i.e. "Runescape/Tip.it/Generic forum #581 was way better in the past, everything was more cosy, everyone acted more mature and there were far less noobs". You often hear it from people who spend 3+ years on a forum. 9/10, they are wrong, they just recall the good stuff and the accompanied freshness everything had.[/notontopic]

[sadukar123]

Well yeah, I can't. And I probably never will be able to know for sure, unless I somehow get access to Jagex HQ...

 

But 1/1000 is an pretty accurate guesstimate IMHO, from the people I've seen getting a Visage and the kills they made to get it.

 

 

 

Another reason of the overexageration of numbers is people's warped memory, they tend to claim they "killed over 2K+ Iron Dragons to get a Dragon drop". I doubt they'd even pass 500 if you actually counted them.

 

 

 

Funny note: This can also be applied to nostalgic memories. i.e. "Runescape/Tip.it/Generic forum #581 was way better in the past, everything was more cosy, everyone acted more mature and there were far less noobs". You often hear it from people who spend 3+ years on a forum. 9/10, they are wrong, they just recall the good stuff and the accompanied freshness everything had.[/notontopic]

 

Best guess anyone can give is "Extremely damning rare, *OMGWTFBBQ YOU GOT ONE*".

[JoeDaStudd]

To quote from my post about ring of wealth and drop rates.

 

What I'm saying is the drop rate could be affected by the player, with each player having there own roulette wheel.

 

This would make sense to a degree if a player has had lots of rare drops in one session reduce the odds of getting another, if your on a slayer task slightly increase the odds, if the player has not been to the area before give slightly better odds and so on.

 

This extra variables would give players more of an incentive to vary there game play (helping Jagex tell the difference between real players and auto'ers as well) as well as stopping massive influx of one item due to sheer luck.

 

 

 

Think of it this way.

 

If you have 100 people buying 100 lottery tickets for the same lottery the chance of one of them win are as if 1 guy had brought 1000 tickets.

 

But if 100 people go out and buy 100 tickets to different lotteries then its not the same as 1 guy buying buying 1000 tickets in any one lottery.

 

 

 

I'm just saying even if you do get a decent number of figures the drop rates could be affected by more then luck and RoW.

 

Pretty much sums up my opinion on rare drop rates and drop rate in general.

[D Jay99]

Lottery fallacy rules in this thread...

 

 

 

If you take the chance of visage as 1/10,000 (too high imo, but anyway) and let's say you've killed 100 Iron Dragons, there's a 0.99%* (better than the 0.1% you'd initially expect) chance you've gotten a Visage in those 100 kills. Let's take you've killed 500 dragons, You could think the odds are 5% now (500/10,000), but mathematics show your odds are now 4.9%. Take it higher, kill 2000 dragons, your mind'd think 20%, but you're only at 18%. And still: the chance of getting a Visage the next kill is still 0.1% (1/10,000). Seeing as the drops are independant of each other (and the rule of addition only applies to dependant calculations).

 

 

* ( 1-(9999/10,000)^100 )

 

 

 

 

 

Though, honestly, from what I've seen, the drop rate of a Draconic Visage should be more to the 1/1000. Don't underestimate this number (aka: OMG I KILLED 1.5K AND NO VISAGE!!!!) Because the chances of you having obtained the drop within those 1.5K kills is still only 77%, and you'll be probably be as unlucky the next drop as you were in your first.

 

Maybe it's even 1/500.

 

 

 

The drop rate on Dragon Legs and Skirts is, from hearsay, about 1/100. Give or take. Should still not be underestimated.

 

finally some1 that proves me right(well not totally but ur the only1 that really accepts that 1/10k is way to high)

 

 

 

@laura: i know it impossible of getting exact numbers for the drop rates, only jagex will have those and i dont think theyll give them 2 us... but what im (we are) doing here is discussing about guesses we make while we kept in regard the prices(read randomness) and the amount you will have to kill to be (almost) 100% sure to get a visage.

 

Since that amount is ~3000 (when using 1/500 drop rate) i found this an acceptable drop rate.

 

There will always be pll who disagree and my numbers wont ever be totally right, but since the OP asked what the drop rate might be, i tried to give him a number which will probably be close to the real answer.

 

The initial droprate you posted was 1/150, which is obviously wrong (whips are about 1/450, and people have actually logged enough kills to accurately conclude that). That droprate was just way off, and that's why people started arguing with you.

 

 

 

For the people who still don't get it even after unkwnwarrior's post; 1/2000 drop rate just means that you have a 1/2000 chance to get a drop every kill, not that you will have gotten one after 2000 kills.

[Bouwzie]

It is unnecessary to know the drop rate anyway, so why bother?

[Cptbaker08]

The initial droprate you posted was 1/150, which is obviously wrong (whips are about 1/450, and people have actually logged enough kills to accurately conclude that). That droprate was just way off, and that's why people started arguing with you.

 

 

 

For the people who still don't get it even after unkwnwarrior's post; 1/2000 drop rate just means that you have a 1/2000 chance to get a drop every kill, not that you will have gotten one after 2000 kills.

 

Ya but either way i believe luck has some things to do with it. I know people that can get 1k+ abbys demons and not get a whip, while i got 3 in 183 on my last task of them, and 8 all together since 85 slayer. As for the visage thing i've gotten one of those and idk, i've slayed somewhere between 1k-2k irons and never got a d skirt or leg drop.

[D Jay99]

The initial droprate you posted was 1/150, which is obviously wrong (whips are about 1/450, and people have actually logged enough kills to accurately conclude that). That droprate was just way off, and that's why people started arguing with you.

 

 

 

For the people who still don't get it even after unkwnwarrior's post; 1/2000 drop rate just means that you have a 1/2000 chance to get a drop every kill, not that you will have gotten one after 2000 kills.

 

Ya but either way i believe luck has some things to do with it. I know people that can get 1k+ abbys demons and not get a whip, while i got 3 in 183 on my last task of them, and 8 all together since 85 slayer. As for the visage thing i've gotten one of those and idk, i've slayed somewhere between 1k-2k irons and never got a d skirt or leg drop.

 

Nah, what you call luck is just the 1/something chance occurring after less kills than you would expect.

[Cptbaker08]

The initial droprate you posted was 1/150, which is obviously wrong (whips are about 1/450, and people have actually logged enough kills to accurately conclude that). That droprate was just way off, and that's why people started arguing with you.

 

 

 

For the people who still don't get it even after unkwnwarrior's post; 1/2000 drop rate just means that you have a 1/2000 chance to get a drop every kill, not that you will have gotten one after 2000 kills.

 

Ya but either way i believe luck has some things to do with it. I know people that can get 1k+ abbys demons and not get a whip, while i got 3 in 183 on my last task of them, and 8 all together since 85 slayer. As for the visage thing i've gotten one of those and idk, i've slayed somewhere between 1k-2k irons and never got a d skirt or leg drop.

 

Nah, what you call luck is just the 1/something chance occurring after less kills than you would expect.

 

Ya i know, there no such thing as luck in a programmed game, but still, I got something going for me lol

[Seraphi]

viewtopic.php?f=180&t=786310

 

There we go :

[awesome400]

pretty sure there was a tip.it times that was about luck :wall:

 

it said you flip a coin 50 times it lands on heads 49 times what is the chance it will land on heads again

 

its still 1/2 odds

[llamster]

It is unnecessary to know the drop rate anyway, so why bother?

 

 

 

What? Drop rate is everything. It tells you how much money you will make per hour, or whether or not you will profit.

[darkdoug]

Read this:

 

http://forum.[Please Use QuickFind Code].ws?17,18,257,57550326

 

This is the closest you will get to knowing an accurate drop rate.

 

 

 

summary:

 

37k+ dragons killed 3 visages droped.