2 Effigies in a row

[Cetshwayo]

While I was on a slayer assignment today, I received 2 effigies in 2 kills. It was very surprising. The only thing I have to back up this claim is my adventures log.

 

I'm wondering now, about the rarity of this. Or if anyone else has had this happen to them?

 

My rs name is cetchathach

Edited September 29, 2011 by Cetshwayo

[Kimberly]

It's uncommon to get them back to back, I guess, but not rare.

[enfield]

the vast majority of dedicated players will never experience that.

[Kimberly]

the vast majority of dedicated players will never experience that.

 

Back to back effigies?

 

I seriously doubt that.

[pal2002]

I've had 2 effigies from lvl 23 cave crawlers... lol.

Not exactly in a row, but close enough (within a day or so)

[AHappySeeker]

B2b2b from iron drags, with d legs a few kills after.

 

Jelly, anyone?

[Aten]

And people have gotten Third-age items from clue scrolls before. Depending on the task, this is not too rare (I've heard of back-to-back effigies from Dark beasts from at least 4 people and back-to-back at 138 crawlers from 2 people)

[ReapMe]

The rarity of it? Not very likely lol, still possible though. Moreso at higher leveled creatures.

You'd have to know the drop rate of the effigy from the monster or a good approximation.

If the assumed drop rate is 1/200 for a high leveled monster, it's simply (1/200)*(1/200)= 1/40000 or .0025% that given you kill two monsters in a row that they'll both drop effigies assuming that certain drop rate.

[n64jive]

Well, I'm unable to look up this f2pers adventure log. But the odds of receiving a drop from a lvl 85 slayer monster is roughly .05%, so the odds of receiving two after killing two is (.05%)^2 or .0025%, or rather 1 in 40,000.

[Bxpprod]

I've had 2 effigies from lvl 23 cave crawlers... lol.

Not exactly in a row, but close enough (within a day or so)

 

Not even close at all #-o

 

The rarity of it? Not very likely lol, still possible though. Moreso at higher leveled creatures.

You'd have to know the drop rate of the effigy from the monster or a good approximation.

If the assumed drop rate is 1/200 for a high leveled monster, it's simply (1/200)*(1/200)= 1/40000 or .0025% that given you kill two monsters in a row that they'll both drop effigies assuming that certain drop rate.

 

:thumbsup:

[Oxitron]

I had 3 in 5 kills on a black demon task I think.

It may have been hell hounds though.

 

Nevertheless, congratulations :D

[Fools_Taco]

Well, I'm unable to look up this f2pers adventure log. But the odds of receiving a drop from a lvl 85 slayer monster is roughly .05%, so the odds of receiving two after killing two is (.05%)^2 or .0025%, or rather 1 in 40,000.

 

+1 ^ that guy

 

And thats why we go to math class....

[Powerfrog]

Yeah it really depends on the task. A mithril dragon has about a 1/150 rate, or 1/22500 for back to back. (Rare, but certainly not unimaginable.)

 

While a level 23 has a drop rate of 1/25000, or 1/625000000 for back to back. (Yeah...)

[Blyaunte]

I've had back to back to back effigies (3 in a row) from Iron Dragons before -- and my drops are notoriously terrible ... :-P

 

That said, when I got those drops, I was also on a 0 for 6500 kill streak for "dragon item drops" from metal dragons (irons, steels and miths). So, I suppose one could imagine that these kinds of things tend to even out ...

 

:unsure:

[MyFaceWhen]

Had back to back Effigies from Waterfiends.

[Hardingen]

Never had 2 in a row, but have gotten 5 iin one task (jadinko males)

[tuuskukk14]

the (1/200)^2 is only true, if you're just killing only 2 monsters and getting 2 effigies(this doesn't take into account the fact that you kill many monsters). The probabilty for getting an effigy right after you got one, is still 1/200.(this is the probability of getting an second effigy right after the first one)

[Will H]

It's really rare, but not unheard of. Single effigy drops aren't that uncommon in the grand scheme of things, especially when fighting bigger monsters like metallic dragons, so the chance of a back-to-back drop isn't trivial. This happens much more often than someone winning the lottery, put it that way.

 

Congratulations, though, enjoy the free xp. :P

[Quyneax]

It's really not right to say that there is a 1/200 squared chance to get b2b effigies off a monster with a 1/200 drop rate. There is a 1/200 chance that a given effigy drop is followed by another effigy drop. If you kill two of this monster, you will get b2b effigies once in 40000 tries, on average. But if you kill, say, 100 of this monster, the chance of getting one effigy is .995^99 (e.g. chances of getting no effigies for 99 kills) multiplied by .005 (chances of getting an effigy on one kill) multiplied by 100 (100 different kills, numbered 1 through 100, you can get an effigy on) which is about 30% (and about 60% chance of no effigies, .995^100).

 

The chances of getting b2b effigies in a 100 kill sample with a 1/200 drop rate are almost the same as that 30% multiplied by 1/200, so about .15%. Which is a whole lot better than the .0025% chance predicted by the .005 squared theory.

[enfield]

hm I think the squared reasoning is right, though at first i was hesitant about it.

 

You can expect, on average, if the effigy drop rate is 1/200, to get an effigy following another one every 200 effigies. Which makes it 1/200^2. Most people don't accumulate 200 effigies.

 

(btw by average i mean with about a 1-1/e probability)

 

While this may seem strange because getting two effigies in your first two kills would also be 1/200^2, this is exactly what needs to happen, this event, and the more kills you do the higher likelihood (the more opportunities you have) for this to occur.

 

the 1/200^2 thing can occur in n-1 places if you do n kills. Thus the chance of getting two effigies b2b scales with 1/200^2.

[Hedgehog]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AleL55gJCQNJdEt3UEduSzVvRTA1VVNHLURjTm1lWFE&hl=en_US#gid=0