Item peaks and the CS Wall

[Logdotzip]

So I'm sure a few of you have noticed the recent trend the boss armors/items have been following the last week or so; continuous dropping... From what I understand, most are trying to associate the drops with panic selling or decline of use/rise in output of said items. I recently heard something that made much more sense and is probably the reason for some inflated item prices.

 

A friend of mine who is in the PvM clan, OTG, recently informed me that one of their high-ups recently had a discussion on the HLF on how Coinshared items were and are handled in the Grand Exchange, and supposedly a JMod made some changes to it recently. If you know anything about Coinshare, you'll know that when you get a split on an item, you get it's minimum G.E. price divided by the number of people on the team eligible to split. Whether or not the item was sold to someone yet, the players still got their cash immediately. CSed items were put on the G.E. for the item's current medium price. This essentially caused the game to experience mild deflation, always necessary for older MMOs to keep the currency valuable.

 

The problem though, is that those items that were placed on the G.E. at medium price; their price wasn't updated when the item's price did. So it would basically get stuck on the Grand Exchange at that price until someone, for whatever reason, tried to buy it at that price. That was the item's peak, the highest point it ever hit while on the G.E. Since most people would of course buy it for lower, this meant a lot of Boss drops were stuck on the G.E. since Coinshare came out. Remember when an Armadyl hilt went for close to 150 million? That was it's peak. A lot of hilts got stuck at that price, and since the price of hilts never went higher, they got stuck waiting to be bought for around 150, but never were due to it only dropping in price from there. It's a main reason that Divines were so rarely seen initially; they weren't buyable back during the old G.E.'s trade limit restrictions. Divines and other rare boss items were coming into the game, but NO ONE was capable of getting them.

 

Now that you can, within reason, offer any amount of gold for an item, you'll notice that sometimes you'll buy a certain amount of an item for a very specific number, and if you keep trying to buy them, you'll eventually have to buy them slightly higher, at another consistant price; that's because you wiped out the stock on an item STUCK at that value. A member of OTG noticed this pattern and asked about it. Allegedly, the Coinshare drop system wasn't coded to update the medium prices of Coinshared items as the real price changed, so about a week ago, one of the game devs plucked out all of the items stuck at their peaks, and reput them in at their medium price (maybe not ALL of them), and recoded the Coinshare system to make their medium prices update correctly.

 

What this means is that the drop in price in almost exclusively boss items we're seeing is the direct result of them being flooded into the game. There are armor pieces all the way back from when Coinshare came out only just now entering the market for availability. This is also the reason for the disparagement between things like Hilt price :: Godsword price and Sigil :: Shield, because most players buy the finished product, not the component. For an example, look at the prices of Divine/Elysian sigils. They were stable for months, only going down since the release of Ganodermic armor. Just recently, the Sigils dropped down to the price of the corresponding Spirit Shields. This is the supposed true reason for boss items dropping in value, not panic selling or TRUE increased supply. The main reason the Nex items didn't get hit by this as much was because they were introduced basically right around when Free Trade came out too, so they essentially dodged the "CS Wall"

 

 

Anyways I just thought this was interesting, and as for discussion, I guess I could ask or suppose the possible repercussions to this change of CSed items.

 

Thanks to my friend Heur/Ish and the other OTG guy for this.

[Saradomin_Mage]

That's rather interesting. I remember reading a while back in the Nex RSOF thread that certain items (particularly Virtus) stayed low because they couldn't break the CS Wall, but I didn't know that it had been recently recoded so that items would move along with the market price.

 

Are you sure this was only implemented about a week ago? The Nex thread made mention of when certain items broke the CS Wall and started going back up again (Virtus earlier this month iirc). Though that could explain the GE downtime earlier last week.

 

Wonder how many items are really coming in now thanks to this update.

 

Also Heur is great :thumbup: Thanks for this.

[Ambler]

That certain would explain a few things. :blink:

[Thus]

Awesome explanation. The only flaw I see is that for a while during the trade restriction SS prices stood relatively stable, and the sigil and shield prices were either the same or really similar. Also, people often tried to snipe sigils every day at med price.

 

What killed divines now is that after trade restrictions were lifted, the split between sigil and shield prices kept getting bigger. Then the prices were manually adjusted in the ge this month, flooding the market with sigils no one was buying before.

 

The panic from the introduction of the "lucky" spirit shields isn't helping.

 

Thank goodness nex armors weren't affected, except by panicking

[Zerker_Jane]

Awesome explanation. The only flaw I see is that for a while during the trade restriction SS prices stood relatively stable, and the sigil and shield prices were either the same or really similar. Also, people often tried to snipe sigils every day at med price.

 

What killed divines now is that after trade restrictions were lifted, the split between sigil and shield prices kept getting bigger. Then the prices were manually adjusted in the ge this month, flooding the market with sigils no one was buying before.

 

The panic from the introduction of the "lucky" spirit shields isn't helping.

 

All I saw on the lucky roll was 10M and a BGS?

[Thus]

 

All I saw on the lucky roll was 10M and a BGS?

 

You have 42 defense. Chances are jagex won't give you something you can't wield. Rewards get better with higher levels.

 

Or maybe you got unlucky. I saw divine on 2 of my rolls yesterday.

[Kimberly]

You have 42 defense. Chances are jagex won't give you something you can't wield. Rewards get better with higher levels.

 

I must've missed where it said that? Could you help me out :P

[Thus]

You have 42 defense. Chances are jagex won't give you something you can't wield. Rewards get better with higher levels.

 

I must've missed where it said that? Could you help me out :P

 

A few people in my clan and I tested it out with pures. The maxed accounts had better possible rewards. The lower accounts had lesser top rewards. The level 3 accounts (skillers too) had absolute rubbish.

 

Jagex doesn't explicitly say that, but we did some early testing. More results on the way.

[toast647]

 

All I saw on the lucky roll was 10M and a BGS?

 

You have 42 defense. Chances are jagex won't give you something you can't wield. Rewards get better with higher levels.

 

Or maybe you got unlucky. I saw divine on 2 of my rolls yesterday.

 

I was on my low level f2p account and I had the chance at tassets + armadyl chestplate.

[Thus]

[spoiler=quotes]

 

All I saw on the lucky roll was 10M and a BGS?

 

You have 42 defense. Chances are jagex won't give you something you can't wield. Rewards get better with higher levels.

 

Or maybe you got unlucky. I saw divine on 2 of my rolls yesterday.

 

I was on my low level f2p account and I had the chance at tassets + armadyl chestplate.

 

 

I'll take that into account. Thank you for the data I'll write that down. What level is it?

 

Also it is a possibility f2p accounts regardless of level have an exceptionally high chance of getting higher level rewards, so that it would be enticing to buy membership should they get them. Or maybe we got really unlucky with the loot on the low level accounts. 1 day of test trials isn't indicative of a trend yet, only some theories.

 

Also I feel this is derailing the thread. Just pm me any results anyone gets.

 

 

 

Back on topic: so the prices are steadily dropping for the mid-high level boss drops, faster than before. Anyone foresee a complete crash in the future?

[Silver Eros]

I think there will reach a point (barring any unforeseen updates) where they will hit something of a price floor.

[Blyaunte]

[spoiler=quotes]

 

All I saw on the lucky roll was 10M and a BGS?

 

You have 42 defense. Chances are jagex won't give you something you can't wield. Rewards get better with higher levels.

 

Or maybe you got unlucky. I saw divine on 2 of my rolls yesterday.

 

I was on my low level f2p account and I had the chance at tassets + armadyl chestplate.

 

 

I'll take that into account. Thank you for the data I'll write that down. What level is it?

 

Also it is a possibility f2p accounts regardless of level have an exceptionally high chance of getting higher level rewards, so that it would be enticing to buy membership should they get them. Or maybe we got really unlucky with the loot on the low level accounts. 1 day of test trials isn't indicative of a trend yet, only some theories.

 

Also I feel this is derailing the thread. Just pm me any results anyone gets.

 

 

 

Back on topic: so the prices are steadily dropping for the mid-high level boss drops, faster than before. Anyone foresee a complete crash in the future?

 

My level 138 main had as many chances to win high level rewards as any of my level 3 "noob" accounts -- I have four (4) such accounts.

 

I think your clan-mates are "having you on" as they say. :rolleyes:

[crazycdcm]

Usually just guilty of lurking, but had to correct a point the in OP.

 

When CS was released, it was said that it would place the item in the GE for mid price, and if after two weeks had expired, the item hadn't sold, it would be removed from the game. I am thus inclined to disagree with the idea of 4 year old hilts finally surfacing into the market.

[AKwaspRS]

Interesting explanation, and it makes sense if this is true. Kind of hard to prove, but that's not important. An important note is that only a finite amount of these items have entered into the GE market, meaning that the deflation effect caused by this update has an end in sight- once all the items reintroduced to the market are bought up, the prices fluctuations they caused will again approach a steady state.

[la la la]

Usually just guilty of lurking, but had to correct a point the in OP.

 

When CS was released, it was said that it would place the item in the GE for mid price, and if after two weeks had expired, the item hadn't sold, it would be removed from the game. I am thus inclined to disagree with the idea of 4 year old hilts finally surfacing into the market.

I had NEVER heard this, and I highly doubt this is true as it would result in pretty massive inflation if so.

[D. V. Devnull]

I'm glad to see Jagex finally thought to clean up their code for the Grand Exchange's CoinShare System. BTW, looking at this, all that Jagex needs to do now is to get rid of the 25K Unbalanced Trade Restriction for all new accounts. Once that's gone, and everyone realizes they need to put prices back into a...

 

Finished Item (top price) > Mostly Processed (price near upper end) > Semi-Processed (mid-range price) > Partially Processed (slightly higher price) > Raw Material (price on the low end)

 

...state, then we'll find the whole market moving smoothly again with everyone happy and enjoying the game like it was back in 2005-2006. But this time, it will be without the massive bot overload. Plus, all the prices will go back to reflecting the levels that it takes to wear/use stuff. :thumbsup:

 

Until then, enjoy the bumps in the road for selling things... or not. I know I won't be enjoying the waiting period, seeing as things like Mithril Platebodies are below their High Alchemy price on the Grand Exchange. RC'er Tiaras are also in the floor... miserable stuff. The RuneScape game was so much more enjoyable when anyone could sell their stuff and get prices well higher than High Alchemy (and usually more than the sum of their parts) for them, reflecting the effort as well as the time spent to get and/or make the item being sold. :huh:

 

~Mr. D. V. "Wishing for the fun times to return to RuneScape's economy..." Devnull

[Sy_Accursed]

 

Finished Item (top price) > Mostly Processed (price near upper end) > Semi-Processed (mid-range price) > Partially Processed (slightly higher price) > Raw Material (price on the low end)

 

It doesn't need to be this state universally and the vast majority that works better on that model already are in that position.

About the only thing that needs to be in this state that currently isn't is spirit shields.

 

The rest that aren't are running nicely on the fully functioning state where by potential xp = value so raw material > finished product.

[Miss Lioness]

Actually I think its more like this:

 

Finished product is worth for example: 1k.

Raw material is worth for example: 400 gp.

Secondairy material is worth for example: 700 gp.

Total price to make finished product is worth: 1100 gp.

 

So still the finished product is more expensive, yet the gain exp, it will cost you more.

[Arceus]

With such a focus on XP at the moment, it's just illogical for finished products to be worth too much, especially when they have absolutely no use, such as runecrafting tiaras. It's true that you need one tiara to go runecraft, but those "ones" don't add up to a runecrafter making thousands of them very quickly.

[crazycdcm]

Usually just guilty of lurking, but had to correct a point the in OP.

 

When CS was released, it was said that it would place the item in the GE for mid price, and if after two weeks had expired, the item hadn't sold, it would be removed from the game. I am thus inclined to disagree with the idea of 4 year old hilts finally surfacing into the market.

I had NEVER heard this, and I highly doubt this is true as it would result in pretty massive inflation if so.

I am fairly sure it was mentioned in the original newspost, although looking back I cannot find it, and all the links to the "knowledgebase" are dead. So it could have been something mentioned in the KB, or perhaps on a forum thread at the time. However interestingly in the original release it mentions:

 

A CoinShare item will be set at the average market price and will ALWAYS stay at the average market price. So, if the item's market price moves up or down, so will the value of the CoinShare item.

 

[Logdotzip]

Yes, but Jagex is notorious for saying one thing and doing another. I'm led to believe that their intentions were to have the item's price change as it's true value did, but for whatever reason, they forgot to or didn't do it properly.

[Golvellius]

Old news.

I [bleep]ed about coinshare inflation 4 years ago.

Everybody laughed at me.

The game took a dive into the shitter.

Grats on finally catching up to me.

[RU_Insane]

Usually just guilty of lurking, but had to correct a point the in OP.

 

When CS was released, it was said that it would place the item in the GE for mid price, and if after two weeks had expired, the item hadn't sold, it would be removed from the game. I am thus inclined to disagree with the idea of 4 year old hilts finally surfacing into the market.

I had NEVER heard this, and I highly doubt this is true as it would result in pretty massive inflation if so.

 

 

How so? If no one were able to purchase those 'stuck' items in the beginning, I imagine their removal wouldn't have an effect on the market anyway. They did not exist on the market to begin with.

[Logdotzip]

Old news.

I [bleep]ed about coinshare inflation 4 years ago.

Everybody laughed at me.

The game took a dive into the shitter.

Grats on finally catching up to me.

 

Why are you always so condescending lol

[Platinum_Myr]

How so? If no one were able to purchase those 'stuck' items in the beginning, I imagine their removal wouldn't have an effect on the market anyway. They did not exist on the market to begin with.

 

Simple. The coinshare money would've been created, instead of syphoned from whoever finally bought the item. In either regard, inflation occurs now because the gp drop would've been 150m, but the item is now worth 30m say. So since no one will pay 150m, the game added 120m. But if the item had bought at mid when it was put on ge, then the game *lost* the 5% margin thereby creating a gp outlet.

 

It is definitely an interesting theory, but I don't know how we would go about proving it without help from Jagex basically telling us the truth of the matter..