Fish Mask. The Next Rare?

[C Hathcook]

**Although I added a poll to this, I am more interested in discussing your beliefs on the future of the Fish Mask. If you want to vote on the poll, please leave a reply with your views on the subject**

 

 

Well the fish mask came out as a SoF prize, and I was lucky enough to get one on the first day. Being F2P, I was only in possesion of about 2m gp. So when I walked into the market and found people offering to buy the mask for 6 million I about soiled my pants.

 

Not only that but I was able to turn around and rebuy for 5.5m and then sell again for 6m. It was like the Runescape gods were smiling down upon me. So after making about 3 m in profit off of rebuying and selling I was sitting there with 2 fish masks, feeling like some sort of rare tycoon.

 

Then I saw something scary. I had paid 5.5m for both masks....

 

Random Player: Buying fish mask 5m

Another Player: Buying fish mask 4 million

A Player: Buying fm 3.9m

 

I frantically ran around trying to sell my masks for profit but in the end had to dump them at a loss of 1 million gp for fear of losing more.

 

Now sitting back and thinking about these new "RARE" Fish Masks, I started to think...the reason other rares are so expensive is becuase it is impossible to get any more of them. There are a set number available in the world of Runescape and that number can only ever go down.

 

As for these fish masks, anybody can get them. At an "Uncommon" rate on SoF, and from what I've read Jagex will keep them as "Rare" items after this week is over. So there will not be a finite number of these available and more and more people will be able to spin and get one.

 

So what are you ideas on the future of the RARE new Fish Mask. Will it stay expensive? Will it become too common and worthless? Will Jagex eventually discontinue issuing it and make it a "true" rare?

 

And most importantly, why did Jagex do this? Shallow ploy to get people to pay for spins? New item to shake up the RS economy?

 

Tell me what you think?

[Rick James]

So what are you ideas on the future of the RARE new Fish Mask. Will it stay expensive? Will it become too common and worthless? Will Jagex eventually discontinue issuing it and make it a "true" rare?

 

The going estimate is that, as an uncommon item on the wheel, it is about a 1:50 chance of getting a fish mask. Jagex have already announced that they will be discontinuing the fish mask at the end of the summer.

 

And most importantly, why did Jagex do this? Shallow ploy to get people to pay for spins? New item to shake up the RS economy?

 

It's quite obvious that they are monetizing the game. At 1:50 rate, you're basically paying USD $1 for a fish mask (plus all the experience lamps). Just the gold alone is fairly competitive with the going rate on 3rd party gold selling, and the xp lamps probably make it better.

 

Cash grab for sure.

[arpar90210]

There will be a set number of fish masks because after the summer is over, the mask will no longer be on the wheel.

[Mikjall]

There will be a set number of fish masks because after the summer is over, the mask will no longer be on the wheel.

So yeah... Around 2020 they might be rare items. Hang on to them buddy!

[Platinum_Myr]

Obviously you should keep them for a few years :)

[C Hathcook]

I'm not sure what the current price is for them, but I wonder if it is even worth buying a couple to hold onto for 6 months in hopes of the price sky rocketing.

[@Dan3HitU]

Wouldn't surprise me if they make them untradable or make them very common next week or in the near future.

[Cheat]

I reckon at the amount that they're going for atm sold one earlier for 3mil instant.. The money you would gain from selling one could make you more money than the percentage accumulation by just letting it sit in your bank. That is unless you have more money than you could possibly invest but you know for your average Joe the 3m will help more with buying gear upgrades or level upgrades.

Basically my prediction is that by this time next year the Fish Mask might of reached 10m in price a gain of 7m. Selling your mask now for 3m and reinvesting that will probably wield a much larger revenue also the money gained from whatever you do with the 3m can be reinvested rather than being stuck away like the fish mask.

[SwreeTak]

I doubt they will be worth billions, but give them a couple of years and they will certainly have increased quite a lot in value.

[Kimberly]

Moved to Questionnaires.

[Carl]

Wouldn't surprise me if they make them untradable or make them very common next week or in the near future.

 

They've already stated what they're going to do.

[Alg]

Wouldn't surprise me if they make them untradable or make them very common next week or in the near future.

 

They've already stated what they're going to do.

They do tend to go back on their word quite a lot these days, though. I'd be surprised if this is the last we ever see of those masks.

[Biofrequency]

I got the ceromonial dragon hat or whatever, not sure if its supposed to be any good though

[Hedgehog]

By the end of the summer, there's going to be close to 1 mask per person playing RS, or maybe half a mask per person at the worst. Basically, unless there's a massive increase in the amount of players after this summer, there's going to be plenty of fish masks to go around, effectively making the nonexistent influx irrelevant.

 

Maybe in a year or so the price will be significantly higher than what it is now, but it'll always be the cheapest rare.

[Watershape]

According to Mod Mark, "Your odds of receiving a red section reward with the squeal of fortune is between 1 in 8000 and 1 in 15000." Since this is the case, you are better off not purchasing extra spins, since if you buy 75 spins for 20 dollars, you are paying 20 bucks for approximately a 1/110 chance at receiving a rare item.

 

According to Paul Gower, the odds of getting a piece of Third-Age armour from a Treasure Trail are extremely rare, very small or very low (according to Mod Maylea, the odds are at least 1 in 100,000 or worse from any trail).

 

Then it will be removed. i think it has a chance on rares market.

[timmmmm83]

It can't be very rare imo, bought one in GE overnight two days ago for 2.650k.

Got one today from the wheel and sold it since I had one already. It is now down to 1.600k.

 

Shows that there is plenty of supply for the people who believe that this item makes a chance on the rares market and hoard it.

 

Maybe in a year or so the price will be significantly higher than what it is now, but it'll always be the cheapest rare.

Until Jagex releases the next 'rare' on the wheel...

[highlanders]

Stuff like phats, santas and masks look good.The fish mask has 0 going for it. Rares like pumpkin and easter egg are bought by rich people that want something stable to invest in. I'm not sure the fish mask qualifies as a safe investment. If we think back to the ornate katana jagex had said it was a one-time thing but they ended up releasing it again and putting a nearly identical one on the sof. If they brought back the fish mask for whatever reason, your entire investment would be ruined.

[timmmmm83]

I have 4 accounts, 2 fish masks so far. (and didn't buy spins)

[X3EN]

Maybe in a year or so the price will be significantly higher than what it is now, but it'll always be the cheapest rare.

JaGeX claims they will be creating new rares, so in that light your statement is simply... wrong.

 

I'm not sure what the current price is for them, but I wonder if it is even worth buying a couple to hold onto for 6 months in hopes of the price sky rocketing.

Absolutely not worth it.

 

So yeah... Around 2020 they might be rare items. Hang on to them buddy!

I would correct 'might' to 'will', but because it is not possible to know whether jagex will reintroduce them in the future (in spite of their statements), I reserve judgement. IFF they will become real discont. items, then by 2020 they will be a rare worth more than it's 'real' 'cosmetic' value (like* santa, h'ween mask, etc.).

 

* not to be confused with 'their price will be absolutely equal to'

 

I am holding onto these masks just because I can keep them for an arbitrary amount of time (>5 years) and with upcoming ways to gain GP without actively participating in game, I have good reasons to believe that one day I can sell one for a nonsensical, ludicrous, funny, droll, comical, farcical price.

[Omali]

Wouldn't surprise me if they make them untradable or make them very common next week or in the near future.

 

They've already stated what they're going to do.

They do tend to go back on their word quite a lot these days, though. I'd be surprised if this is the last we ever see of those masks.

 

Why? Jagex said that the plan is to introduce more rares into the economy. There will likely be more items introduced into Squeal of Fortune or other methods, but they are probably just as likely to re-introduce phats and eggs than they are bringing back fish masks.

[YodelingDoodle]

I doubt Runescape will be around long enough for this mask to become "rare"

[Blaze The Movie Fan]

I'm waiting until at least December until I sell my mask.

 

By then this item should be worth at least 10m.

[Omali]

I doubt Runescape will be around long enough for this mask to become "rare"

 

People have been calling for RuneScape's death since 2004. You're always wrong.

[Alg]

Why? Jagex said that the plan is to introduce more rares into the economy. There will likely be more items introduced into Squeal of Fortune or other methods, but they are probably just as likely to re-introduce phats and eggs than they are bringing back fish masks.

Not even through another event promotion? I'm thinking of something like the membership packs they sold at that event a few weeks ago where you could get all of the game card items. Maybe something like that at Runefest, or as a prize like they did with the golden scythe. They could do the same with any future discontinued items, as well, and it would still limit the amount of them that there are.

[NukeMarine]

I'm certain that the odds of getting a fish mask are 1:100 at the moment (first week uncommon) though I'll post the more official tally tonight. When it moves to the rare slot, the odds likely will be 1:7500 if the ratio is kept. With that, you just have to make a big assumption of how spins are done daily. I think 2 million spins a day on average is a conservative number. Assuming that, there'll be about 200,000 fish masks by the end of summer with the majority coming out this week. Assuming 1.5 mill member accounts and 500k legit f2p accounts makes for 1 mask for every 10 players.

 

People are selling them low right now, but this week the supply starts to dribble out. I do not doubt that the item's value starts to go up after that. Might be a worthwhile investment. As there's a 250k gp alc value, at least losses will be limited.