Tip.It Times Presents: The Rares Market

[Rubinio]

 

 

 

i've always been wondering what someone's really good estimate would be on the price if bunny ears were tradeable?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No matter what the price would be, i would at least want to have them just like the scythe...more then any other rare available

[crustycheese]

Could someone please explain what the "famous duping of Nov 7th 2003" was?

[stuntdawg5]

Good artical if i had money i would buy but im poor atm :cry:

[n64jive]

no wonder your such a good merchant, graphing it makes it much easier to see the trend.

[STORM_DAMAGE]

Ok this is a bit off topic but im new 2 this site n... HOW THE HELL I MAKE A SIG? there so kool n i want 1 now! :( plz pm with the in- fo! plz ppl i need 2 kno! :cry:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P.S. RIP shiva.

[elpadrino]

I appreciate the future prices bit... but i find fault in you're predictions. Were...is....the...money...going to come from? I think our economy is at its worst with inflation.

[Ts_Stormrage]

money is coming from more people alching...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

anywho, duke... you made 1 mistake :)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

if a price increases 15% every month, it will have increased 535% rather then 400, because as you stated, price increase is an exponential thing...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i could go into a complicated mathmatic explanation, but the person concerning this is probably smart enough to see the error

[caughtjoo]

It good to teach younger people about the past, but the bottom of that article will only bring more manipulation sooner.

[celer]

Kudos to Duke Freedom. The article (in my opinion) was/is very insightful and really made me think about RS price history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking forward to reading some more of his stuff in the future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-celer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit: capitalization error...

[STORM_DAMAGE]

OK! I GOT MY SIG NOW!

 

 

 

HOW I PUT IT IN NOW.....

[Matt_Rahl]

Yes, Kudos to Duke Freedom. You are SO right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wanted to state that this has DEFFINATLY held true for all rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I started playing, nearly 5 years ago. Roughly 15 day's after the Christmas Cracker drop. P-hats were strange to me, and I saw no usage for them at the time (I was a noob, you can't blame me.) After a few weeks or so though, having originally seen the price at 100-200gp when I got on. I figured, ah, what the hey. I splurged my money on a White P-hat. You know what I paid? 1,000gp (1k.) Lol, I still have it to this day. In fact, RIGHT before I quit RS for a while (Obviously I'm back now, as of a month and a half ago.) I purchased SEVEN Santa Hats, having learned how the trend affects rares, over my years of playing. I'm upset I didn't purchase another 7; I had money at the time. I paid 150-200k for each individual Santa hat. I even got a Pumpkin, long ago. I forget what I paid for that though. As well as an Easter egg and Tele Disc for about 800k total.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I never invested in the Halloween Masks though. I saw the trend, obviously, it holds true for anything when there's a limited supply normally. However, I thought they were fairly ugly in appearance, and didn't care for them. My goal is to get 1 of every collectable rare (Other than masks.) So, at 1 White P-hat, 7 Santa Hats, 1 Pumpkin, and 1 Easter Egg. I'm fairly along in my journey. But, given like the 4x increase in value of P-hats and a fairly significant Party Cracker increase since my last full-time playing, I'm not sure I'll ever reach that goal. :'(

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One of my most disappointing memories. One day PRIOR to the discontinuation of Half-Wines, I had been in the cooking guild, working away at making mines (had been doing it for 3-5 day's), and I had a bunch of wines in my inventory, which I had been drinking a bunch of. The funny thing was, I had half-drank, a couple of them (Back then, we didn't have the "empty" option that today's player's have) and had discarded them, figuring "Whatever, All my stat's are 0'd out practically from getting drunk, I'll just grab some more jugs the next time I log on." Sure enough, my next log-onÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâæ.No more half wines. Man, was I steamed. Lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

P.S. I don't see why Spinach Rolls couldn't be a big hit. They were very "interesting" in healing potentials, given the lack of "variety" in potions. (No members back then for all of you past year or 2 players. Let alone RS2, lol.) Only obtainable from MOSS GIANTS. Moss giants, as far as I can remember (I could be wrong, I was only a mid-lvl at best back then), only spawned in the WILDERNESS. To the WEST of that graveyard with the zombies and/or skeletons. Before reaching the place with the PIZZAS It wasn't a particularly common drop either. I had always horded away and bought them all, just sort-of as my own collectible of interests. Now that I've returned only recently though........ I have had a random event, give me one, as well as having the "traveling merchant" near the "Waterfall" (Apparently a new NPC), selling them for like 5gp or something. I have to, I'm really upset. They ruined my collectibles values. Why!? Why I ask, WHY!? I guess because people thought they were a "real" rare, and were overpaying it due to scammers, so they made it more acquirable. Either way, that broke my heart returning. :'(

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyone else got a similar story, like that of the Half Wines?

[malo2]

exellent article duke, one if the two articles in the whole tip it times, that are actually usefull!

[rambaldi]

excellent writing, you need a scale on the graphs though, i was using them to try work out when i joined and it took me a moment to realise the were in thousands

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am pretty sure when i started party hats were around 200k -500k (could be very wrong about that though) and i thought to myself, i am not going to pay that much for a silly hat, i will buy some armour and then mabye get it later. I shouldnt have listened to myself, i would have been set for life by now

[Nova_bros]

Simply a great article. Thats all i can really say. And with his statement about people that bought partyhats during the rs2 depression, take a look at this:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My partyhat is worth 4473 times more NOW than what i paid for it.

[willyx]

Hmmm..... I actually think that the price of the disk of returning will drop, since you can't "equip" it in any way, so u can't show it off to other ppl.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

unless u send a trade offer and put the disk up

[jaklumen]

very nice article, Duke. I was rather blown away looking at the time and effort you've put into this-- the graphs made this article even more interesting to read than the last-- and the last one was quite a read, too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I started in February 2002 and I remember a few things about rares and holiday items during my time here. I remember Santa hats being a really big deal at first, and some scams involving them. One was a two-person scam involving one person claiming if you changed your pass to 'santa' you would get a santa hat, with one person explaining and one person suddenly wearing a Santa when he claimed he changed it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I had a discussion with a friend regarding rares and their symbol of wealth (and how we didn't put much stock in it). This was about the time bunny ears came out as the first non-tradeable holiday item. LOL he didn't much like rares but he liked his bunny ears.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd never played on a holiday before, and I figured the Halloween when scythes came out wouldn't be a big deal. I kicked myself later when RS2 came out with random events. If hoods became a part of the shade robes and scythes were suddenly tradeable, I can just imagine dozens of kids running around trying to look like the Reaper...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I recently had some fun trying out a number of non-armor clothes in the game and taking screenshots for um, hehe, posterity. Some people still think I have a bank full of clothes, although all I really kept (save some Zammy robes) was a prince outfit, a pirate hat, and a pair of pirate boots. So if I ever got interested in rares very much, it'd be with all the wearable items.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Personally, I'd rather see Treasure Trails expanded for new clothing items than to have holiday drops as they were originally conceived come back-- although I have no idea what Jagex thinks about Treasure Trail item prices and if they would really want to do that...

[dargonhuman]

Could someone please explain what the "famous duping of Nov 7th 2003" was?

 

 

 

The Dupe Incident occurred when a player realized there was a way to duplicate the pink party hats somehow; I think he was using a third party program or something.

 

 

 

However he did it, he created chaos in the p-hat market by flooding hundreds of duplicated pink hats into the game, which set off rumors like wildfire that he was duping all colors of p-hats, other rares, all kinds of things. It ended when Jagex patched the bug and banned the player (as well as all of his other accounts). Just prior to the banning, there was a rumor that Jagex was offering a free lifetime Membership to anyone who could name the player who was responsible. It was all anyone could talk about in-game and on the forums for a week.[/history lesson]

 

 

 

Yeh, anyway, I've never understood the fascination with rares. Sure, they're an "investment", but if the market ever goes belly up, you're essentially screwed; stuck with a stat-less item that you paid too much for and can't get a return on. Personally, if I had 190 million in my bank I didn't know what to do with (shyeah, only if my skills are all maxed at 99), I'd go out and buy tons of mid- to high-level armor and weapons and hang out in Lumbridge playing Santa Claus to lvl-3's and victims of the Wilderness. No, I wouldn't get a Santa Hat to do that, either.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

--Darg--

[dorkvader]

the price estimates for the end of the year make me sad as i believe they are probably true. i may never have enough gp for even a h'ween mask. *sigh* i only have 800k, i may as well save for rune sara. waht does anyone think about the prices of treasure trail items?

[Intriguing]

It's nice to see someone putting lots of effort and research into their article. Keep up the good work.

[Intriguing]

the price estimates for the end of the year make me sad as i believe they are probably true. i may never have enough gp for even a h'ween mask. *sigh* i only have 800k, i may as well save for rune sara. waht does anyone think about the prices of treasure trail items?

 

 

 

They will consistently continue going lower in price as time goes on. [With the exception of short periods when new themed quests, or such, come out, and there is a higher demand for them. For example, the 50k price rise of Pirate Hats recently.] The reason being, the amount of them in RunScape is continually increasing, as opposed to holiday items and rares, where they're staying the same, but the demand is rising.

[rooneyrules0]

hehe red masks just went up. i bought one for 9.1 2 days ago and sold 12m yesterday :D , good article though duke

[jonno53]

great article. shame ill never afford a partyhat :(

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but i do hope prices will rise like you said, i brought a santa the other day and had to sell my dragon sqare for it T_T (i guessed that d sqrs will drop in price but they seem to have reached a stop in their cost)

 

 

 

if i sell the santa for 15m at the end of the year, and had a little more money than i have now, i could afford a d chain ^^

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(like my little avatar? its real, honest *cough*.if it was i would be soooo rich)

[Duke_Freedom]

if a price increases 15% every month, it will have increased 535% rather then 400, because as you stated, price increase is an exponential thing...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It wouldn't have increased by 535%, it would have increased by 435%, and I rounded that down a bit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.15^12 = 5.35, which means it increased by 4.35 ;).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What you ment to say is that the prices typically five-doubled (the orignal price + the 400% increase) each year over the past 2 years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

very nice article, Duke. I was rather blown away looking at the time and effort you've put into this-- the graphs made this article even more interesting to read than the last-- and the last one was quite a read, too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks :). Yeah, it did took quite some time to write this and especially to keep the graphs updated throughout the years, but I think it's well worth it :).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

hehe red masks just went up. i bought one for 9.1 2 days ago and sold 12m yesterday :D , good article though duke

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep, masks just shot up in the past 3 days, which is why it doesn't show that in the graph :).

[Ts_Stormrage]

you know what i meant :)

[bob7926]

nice article.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

thank you for taking the time to prepare it. and i hope everyone enjoys reading it as much as i did(although, i like the other one a bit more..rares i know about, rs-economy/cash flow is something you dont see discussed everyday though).