Rares - Estimate how many are left

[The Dark Lord]

I (as well as others I'm sure) am wondering how many rares are left in the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Santas - ?

 

 

 

Green Halloween Masks - ?

 

 

 

Blue Halloween Masks - ?

 

 

 

Red Halloween Masks - ?

 

 

 

Easter Eggs - ?

 

 

 

Disks of Returning - ?

 

 

 

Pumpkins - ?

 

 

 

Half Wines - ?

 

 

 

Purple P'Hat - ?

 

 

 

Yellow P'Hat - ?

 

 

 

Green P'Hat - ?

 

 

 

Red P'Hat - ?

 

 

 

White P'Hat - ?

 

 

 

Blue P'Hat - ?

 

 

 

Christmas Crackers - ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A long list... Well anyways does anyone know?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I see masks/Santa hats a lot, so I'm guessing there are at least 500 in the game. Thus, they are still not that high in value...yet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I also know the only reason why party hats went up so high was because of the '03 Phat Dupe in which Jagex banned a ton of accounts with party hats, so many were destroyed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

low supply + high demand = high prices

[Timetohide]

There's still quite a few rares left out... just maybe you haven't seen them take it out of their bank yet :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I doubt anyone knows how many rares are left :-k

[dragon312]

Santas - 3500

 

 

 

Green Halloween Masks - 3000

 

 

 

Blue Halloween Masks - 3000

 

 

 

Red Halloween Masks - 3000

 

 

 

Easter Eggs - 2000

 

 

 

Disks of Returning - 1000

 

 

 

Pumpkins - 400

 

 

 

Half Wines - 100

 

 

 

Purple P'Hat - 550

 

 

 

Yellow P'Hat - 500

 

 

 

Green P'Hat - 500

 

 

 

Red P'Hat - 500

 

 

 

White P'Hat - 500

 

 

 

Blue P'Hat - 500

 

 

 

Christmas Crackers - 10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i only took the actives as there still might be double as much of em but we wont know

[The Dark Lord]

Wow....How did you come up with that estimate?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some kind of census of discontinued items?

[icecube]

I think most people underestimate the amount of rares left in the game, and I mean really underestimate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are a lot of people who probablly have secretly hoarded some rare, and others who have just left accounts with them. The amount of people banned with rares affects the total amount very little.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think I or anyone (even Duke_Freedom said he could not) can estimate the amount though, there's too many variables to think about.

[Lordjake]

I'd guess that there are nearly 10,000 santas out there, if not more.

 

 

 

I know of at least two people with over 500 santas each, which makes 10% of my guess right there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There might be 1100 phats of each color, with a few more purples/pinks than the others.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have no idea about the others, but I'd assume the rare with the fewest amount is half-wine.

[FooK-A-Ji]

I'd guess that there are nearly 10,000 santas out there, if not more.

 

 

 

I know of at least two people with over 500 santas each, which makes 10% of my guess right there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There might be 1100 phats of each color, with a few more purples/pinks than the others.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have no idea about the others, but I'd assume the rare with the fewest amount is half-wine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

what about disc of returning?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

how did they get 500 santa's?`bought? i only managed 102 when they dropped =; :wink:

[FooK-A-Ji]

And as for masks I'd say around 25.000 .

 

 

 

I remember when they dropped it, me and a mate named shumli hoarded ALL DAY, as they dropped them at same time every 60 minutes for the whole night/day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

since the christmas cracker drop, jagex realized that people were angry about not getting drops because of not being there at the right time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

when crackers were dropped they didnt drop all day or for a week or however jagex does it today. that, and pumpkins, were only drops that didnt get taken seriously at the time, it wasn't about hoarding all the rares u could get for future use in 2007, that, and there were about 99% less players in 2001, so not as many droppings were required.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

with that stated, when you guess , bear in mind that pumpkins and crackers weren't mainstream and ppl didnt really care about them (i pk'ed and trained for a day on pumpkins). so the amount is considerably less than ie. masks .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.. why did i write this

[WolfhunterXZ]

Santas - 10,000+

 

 

 

Green Halloween Masks - 10,000+/-

 

 

 

Blue Halloween Masks - 10,000+/-

 

 

 

Red Halloween Masks - 10,000+/-

 

 

 

Easter Eggs - 500

 

 

 

Disks of Returning - 250

 

 

 

Pumpkins - 700

 

 

 

Half Wines - 200

 

 

 

Purple P'Hat - 800

 

 

 

Yellow P'Hat - 700

 

 

 

Green P'Hat - 700

 

 

 

Red P'Hat - 700

 

 

 

White P'Hat - 700

 

 

 

Blue P'Hat - 700

 

 

 

Christmas Crackers - 50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

remember, especially for the later rares such as masks and santas, there were a lot more people than at the beginning for the crackers and party hats. So there are actually a lot. And take this into consideration, even back before RS2 came out and RS truly became popular, there was I don't remember atleast 20,000 or so players at that time. So there was lots more drops and pick ups. :) So the numbers may be even higher for some.

[Laikrob]

I'd say you're way off on Easters and Pumpkins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know at least one player with more than 250 Easters, and several with 50+.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With the Phats, try to look at it this way: Your estimate would mean less than 10 people on ea server with ea colour Phat. I doubt that one very much.

[Tres]

pumpkin as being first holiday drop...there was not so many dropped because i was playing active then but i didnt spot any pumpkins anywhere...i didnt even know they were dropped so there is much less them dropped than easter eggs but yet prices are same today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

next there was christmas crackers...i was online that day but only way i knew they was dropped when i heard about other players....during that day i picked up only one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Masks i was seriously hunting all day they was dropped and also santas...santas dropped overall much more than masks...i only was waiting 2-3 drop times to get santas so i picked up easily around 40 santas...masks i was waiting much longer and even when they dropped sometimes i couldnt find any so it took much longer to get 20+ masks during that day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

imo pumpkins and disks are much rarer from cheaper rares than anything else because there is not many of them exist anymore but prices are low.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

masks were first drops when most ppl realised that they were going to raise value alot when saving them so there was alot of ppl to get them for merchanting purposes...because party hats were already started to be collectible items so ppl knew that masks will be also.

 

 

 

in october 2002 when masks were dropped, most expensive party hat was around 500k because i have picture of tradescreen from end of october when i received purple hat which was bought for 500k.

[spikerkid]

Santas - 7,000

 

 

 

Green Halloween Masks - 7,000

 

 

 

Blue Halloween Masks - 6,000

 

 

 

Red Halloween Masks - 5,000

 

 

 

Easter Eggs - 1500

 

 

 

Disks of Returning - 1500

 

 

 

Pumpkins - 1500

 

 

 

Half Wines - 250

 

 

 

Purple P'Hat - 850

 

 

 

Yellow P'Hat - 750

 

 

 

Green P'Hat - 650

 

 

 

Red P'Hat - 650

 

 

 

White P'Hat - 600

 

 

 

Blue P'Hat - 600

 

 

 

Christmas Crackers - 50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My guess

[Dragon_lord]

Well, the prices of rares went up a lot since Duke Freedom and Cursed You got banned. They had many rares in their banks....All gone!

[Chaos_Reborn]

I'm sure that there are many more rares left, more than what we've estimated. A lot of people have inactive accounts with rares on them (which they can log into). Many people have picked them up since they dropped on their respective holiday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The amount that goes away are caused by dropping them and no one picking them up and by high alching (there are possibly other ways of detroying them...)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So we've estimated the amount of rares that are circulating around the market within active players. 10,000 + for santas sound good though.

[Duke_Freedom]

My estimates of a year ago:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

500 party hats sets

 

 

 

2500 mask sets

 

 

 

15000 santa hats

 

 

 

200 crackers

 

 

 

200 half wines

 

 

 

1250 disks

 

 

 

2000 pumpkins

 

 

 

3500 easter eggs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lordjake is right, there are various people who own ~500 santa's. I personally have owned such amounts at various times in history too. Those people did buy them up though. Laikrob is right about the easters too.

[Aus_Fighter]

I think there would have to be around 18-20k santa hats on RS accounts.. Once people saw what was happpening with party hats at the time people started to buy them in massive bulk with people having 600+ at a time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also with the bannings i think a few rares would have been lost to this.. I owned 7 Party hats when i was banned and about 30+ masks.. But not everyone banned owned as many rares

[Nabbagad]

Here are my estimates:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Santas - 10,000

 

 

 

Green Halloween Masks - 4,000

 

 

 

Blue Halloween Masks - 4,000

 

 

 

Red Halloween Masks - 4,000

 

 

 

Easter Eggs - 3,000

 

 

 

Disks of Returning - 2,000

 

 

 

Pumpkins - 1,000

 

 

 

Half Wines - 500

 

 

 

Purple P'Hat - 1000

 

 

 

Yellow P'Hat - 1000

 

 

 

Green P'Hat - 1000

 

 

 

Red P'Hat - 1000

 

 

 

White P'Hat - 1000

 

 

 

Blue P'Hat - 800

 

 

 

Christmas Crackers - 100 - 200

[The Dark Lord]

Just wondering.... Does the amount of rares always affect prices? According to your estimates, there are way less green masks than Santa hats, yet Santa hats are worth more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also I heard green masks are supposed to rise considerably during the summer. What is is supposed to rise to?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know Santas are more popular, so that explains the higher price.

[X_Fat4lyfe_X]

Edit- Didn't see you post, Duke :D

[unorclan]

Hey, we talk of How Fast We are Losing Party Hats in my Discovery: article. Here's a link to it. Part 3 - http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=615623

[Aus_Fighter]

 

 

 

 

# 500 party hats sets * 660mil per set = ~330bil

 

 

 

# 2500 mask sets * 20mil per set = ~50bil

 

 

 

# 15000 santa hats * 4.5mil per hat = ~68bil

 

 

 

# 200 crackers * 150mil per cracker = ~30bil

 

 

 

# 200 half wines * 28mil per wine = ~6bil

 

 

 

# 1250 disks * 3.7mil per disk = ~5bil

 

 

 

# 2000 pumpkins * 2mil per pumpkin = ~4bil

 

 

 

# 3500 easter eggs * 1.8mil per easter = ~6bil

 

 

 

 

 

 

I took this from his article on June 10th 2006. While the prices may be off, this is a pretty good estimate. Notice- the numbers may vary due to 7 more months of play.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Times them prices by 3,4 even 5 times

[Lordjake]

 

I'd guess that there are nearly 10,000 santas out there, if not more.

 

 

 

I know of at least two people with over 500 santas each, which makes 10% of my guess right there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There might be 1100 phats of each color, with a few more purples/pinks than the others.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have no idea about the others, but I'd assume the rare with the fewest amount is half-wine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

what about disc of returning?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

how did they get 500 santa's?`bought? i only managed 102 when they dropped =; :wink:

 

 

 

I believe one of them (Lord Liator - used to use this forum a bit back when rs2 came out) bought most of his, but I assume picked up a good amount from the initial drop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for the other person, I don't really know her personally, she's a friend of a friend. I think she bought most of em in rs1, but I can't be sure.

 

 

 

I've been told she has in excess of 500, while Liator has 500 exactly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

((I'm not saying I know Lord_Liator personally either, I just know for a fact that he has 500 santas, and that he even posted a bank picture with them ~2 years ago).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And as for disks of returning, I have no idea how many they number. I've only seen a total of ~5 in-game over the past 4 years :oops:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

edit: found the bank pic that Lord Liator had posted:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know the exact date it was taken, it was at the latest taken in Aug of 05.

[Risen_The]

I don't know, but I'm guessing about 100 crackers left with about 50 of the accounts in a long long sleep.

[ortiz9471]

There are definetly a lot more then people think.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I mean, I bet there are 50k santa hats. I bet only 10-15k are on 'active' accounts but still. To many variables to figure out..

[The Dark Lord]

That sounds like an awful lot of Santa hats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyways the lower demand for green halloween masks keep them below the value of Santa hats, correct? Really according to everyone's estimates, you all agree there are like 2-3k green masks but 10-20k Santa hats.