390 replies to this topic

[NukeMarine]

**The mods have been merging other threads about SoF onto this one, so I edited the title. Please be aware that there'll be some disjointed comments. Biggest rule is keep it civil and don't insult the individual players**

**I posted this earlier as a reply, but felt it could be it's own topic. If others have detailed results, we can merge them for better chance percentiles.**

Against my better judgement, I decided to drop $200 and try to see what I could get for 900 spins. Since this is likely a one time thing for me, I wanted to be as detailed as possible in what I could get. Some items I could not track as I already had the items (gems, law runes, gold ore) but that should be minor. I put all the lamps toward agility (I think I was at level 72). I have a feeling that the rare results were skewed thanks to the Ceremonial outfit as the last 300 spins had 7 rare pop up (mostly 200k gp). Here are the results:

900 Spins
------------

Common: 695 (71.6%)
Uncomm: 265 (27.3%)
Rare: 9 (0.9%)
V.Rare: 1

Double Spin: 35

Common Lamp: 194 (104 any) - 20.0%
Uncomm Lamp: 127 (66 any) -  13.1%
Rare Lamp: 1
V. Rare Lamp: 1

Agi Exp: 0,854,676 xp
Gen Exp: 1,764,442 xp

GP: 3,790,000 gp

brunokiller, on 11 June 2012 - 11:42 AM, said:

$200 is a lot of money to waste like that.

Do you think it was worth it?

It wasn't wasted since it was for SCIENCE. I'll be honest and say this was boring though. Not as fun as when I tracked other things in the past (metal dragon drops, MTK, farm runs with sheers, etc).  I definitely do not recommend this to anyone.

Was it worth it? On the negative side, I helped give Jagex a reason to try another stunt like this (introducing rares) in the future since I essentially paid 30 months of membership. Hopefully though, this data can help convince players to not even consider doing this. That in turn can help convince Jagex that trying to push spins is a dead end route.

On the positive side, people that believe time is money have something to decide if they want to do this. Seeing that there's a predictable ratio of lamps to spins, you can determine your XP for your purchase. Maybe someone that makes a couple hundred dollars a day on a good job may find it useful to spend that much on a character instead of spending time. We use the term "disposable income", but I've noticed many players ignore the concept of "disposable time" as if 8 hours a day to play this game is something everyone has. I'm not completely against the idea of someone spending their time earning money, then using that money to save even more time in the game. For example, the 850k agility xp I got would take about 17 hours in the game so would it be so much that I worked 3 or 4 hours in a job I liked to earn enough to pay it? Maybe not, but if I had to work 25 hours though, that'd be idiotic. So, basically time=money.

One thing I just don't see this as is gambling. Assuming the black market rate on GP is about $0.50 per 1m gp then what 900 spins costs represent a potential 400m gp. The SoF does not even come close to that. Perhaps this is a good thing.

[Zerker_Jane]

People actually spend money on that shit?

[Mercifull]

You wasted $200 for nothing. Loads of other people have posted their spin logs and you could add it all up together and average out to detemine the approx percentage rates for spins without having to fork out money and do it yourself.

[timmmmm83]

Zerker_Jane, on 11 June 2012 - 12:42 PM, said:

People actually spend money on that shit?

Yup, and that is the reason it is here to stay.
If everyone just used their free spins and didn't buy extra, what would be the incentive for Jagex to keep the wheel?

Oh well, if enough people buy spins, they might not introduce a straightforward "$ for M" shop...  

[xSxqPowerx]

What I'm getting from this is that if I ever feel like buying spins, I should wait until those stupid ceremonial outfits have all been removed so I have a chance of actually getting some lucky spirit shields or something

[G550]

"Did it for SCIENCE"
Lolk pumpkin  

"Hopefully though, this data can help convince players to not even consider doing this."

Okay, first off. Since SoF released the option to buy spins, so many (and i cannot even count half of them on my fingers and toes) youtubers did what you did. "I'm going to buy spins and see what i get so you don't have to waste money seeing if it's worth it or not".
Truth of the matter is, they were just too chicken shit to admit that they bought spins because THEY wanted to. THEY wanted to test their luck. Any person with half a brain knows that. Now, you posting this topic, saying you did this in the name of science is an insult. It is an insult not only to any person that reads this, but an insult to yourself. You're insulting us by feeding us some bullshit story and then hoping we would believe it. You're insulting yourself by thinking it was actually going to work.

The TIF community has a very big hate for the SoF, and if anyone has not realised it by now then i suspect something serious might be wrong with them.

I'm sure people would have had way less of an issue if you did not lie about why you bought the spins. In fact, i'm certain that posts would not have been so aggressive had you been honest.

[Tim]

Whyyyyyyy. There's plenty of logs with evidence etc, even myself when I did a $20 drop. I'm not going to harass you or anything but you probably could have searched around a bit first and spent the $200 on something IRL for yourself. Wait, I've got an image for this:

http://caseysoftware...2bcdea730_o.jpg [Image display blocked; image is linked instead.]

[Omali]

OP can claim it's for science all he wants, he'll still be the guy that spent $200 to powerlevel his account and buy gold.

And very inefficiently, considering your payment versus your outcome.

[Randox]

We get it. This isn't the first time this has been done, and a lot of people really dislike seeing this or hearing about it. From this point on, you can either comment on the test and its results, or you can not post on this thread. This is a really stupid issue to get yourself in trouble over, and I don't want to need to remove more posts from this thread and end up handing out warnings as a result.

Thank You.

[Sinkhan]

^I imagined dogbert reading that post aloud and threatening to bring down the smack with a newspaper

In any case, data is still data. Is there any place that has been collecting large logs? I'm interested in what the wheel produces in a very large sample (say, 50k)

[Alg]

So rares are 1/100 and the 'jackpot' ones are around 1/1000? It's quite good that they increased the odds for those...  

[Fire_God]

Sinkhan, on 11 June 2012 - 02:20 PM, said:

In any case, data is still data. Is there any place that has been collecting large logs? I'm interested in what the wheel produces in a very large sample (say, 50k)

One of the problems I see with collecting it all in one place is that the squeal gets updated so often that data from two weeks ago is not relevant. The squeal has had what, 7 updates is 4 months? Yes there is tons of data but the items and rates change so much that it would be difficult to use old data.

[Kaida23]

Fire_God, on 11 June 2012 - 04:15 PM, said:

One of the problems I see with collecting it all in one place is that the squeal gets updated so often that data from two weeks ago is not relevant. The squeal has had what, 7 updates is 4 months? Yes there is tons of data but the items and rates change so much that it would be difficult to use old data.

It might even be more than that. Weren't there 4 updates in May alone?

Collecting data on common/uncommon/rare/super rare odds is still a good idea, it will just apply to different items with each update. I think the only time they really changed the chances of getting an item was when they did the tattoo/horns update.

[Omali]

Randox, on 11 June 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:

We get it. This isn't the first time this has been done, and a lot of people really dislike seeing this or hearing about it. From this point on, you can either comment on the test and its results, or you can not post on this thread. This is a really stupid issue to get yourself in trouble over, and I don't want to need to remove more posts from this thread and end up handing out warnings as a result.

Thank You.

Gathering information from Squeal of Fortune is useless with how much Jagex shuffles around odds, shuffles items, shuffles regions (what items are considered for what rarity), shuffles chances. The OP's data will be useless in another couple of weeks as odds are once again moved around to encompass the fish mask being moved to the rare position (meaning changes in odds for uncommon and rare items) and then when the summer clothing sets are removed.

Edited by Randox, 11 June 2012 - 05:27 PM.
Discussion of motives has ended

[Randox]

My understanding is that the odds have only changed once. While the odds for items change as they move categories, I've not yet seen anything to suggest that the odds for the categories have changed, except the one time it was announced. So the common/uncommon/rare/ultra-rare should stay valid for at least a while.

[Warriormonkx]

Well if he truly wanted to hide the fact that he wanted to buy spins/it wasn't for science, he didn't have to make this thread at all, and nobody would know about it.  Call me naive but I think he's trying to be helpful.

Anyways, that's off topic.
These results are interesting, I think you're lucky to have received super rare at all, apparently they are like 1/15000 according to a JMod (I forget where I saw that)?

I'm also wondering if there is a mass log somewhere.  Would be nice to have solid rates for the website so people can understand how poor they are

[Hedgehog]

I like how so many people are willing to gather data about something useless like this, instead of something more important.

[stonewall337]

Mercifull, on 11 June 2012 - 12:50 PM, said:

You wasted $200 for nothing. Loads of other people have posted their spin logs and you could add it all up together and average out to detemine the approx percentage rates for spins without having to fork out money and do it yourself.

Woot another person who doesn't understand disposable income.

[ForsakenMage]

Well, nice to see that at least out of those spins you got the nifty outfit. ^_^ Now go recolour it into something prettier!

Judging from the rates you've posted, I guess it's reasonable to believe that you have that kind of percentage. I wonder if it's the same for F2P since people seem to have observed more rare and super rare rewards from the SoF, although it wouldn't surprise me if it's only slightly higher since it can be used as a marketing tool for P2P, whether we like it or not. I don't think this data is entirely useless if compared to other logs made of spins during this current period, before another shuffle is done in the future.

[Randox]

Guys, this is still a bit ridiculous. If your not going to contribute to the topic, then don't post on it.

If you want to complain about people buying spins, then please take it to rants. We have a whole forum dedicated to complaining about things, trivial or not. Please feel free to use it.


In the mean time, there are people who like to have this kind of data. There are a number of people who like to do calculations on the impact of the wheel on the game, and there are people who are thinking about buying the spins. You might not agree with paying for them, I might not agree with it, but at the end of the day, it does support the game, and people who buy spins are just as welcome here as anyone else.

You do your fellow users a disservice by bashing people who give us their information. They don't have to keep track. It's a pain in the ass to keep a tally of every item you get when your getting nearly 1000 data points. There are people who use this data, and it would be appreciated if you don't discourage them from posting it by harassing them about it (aside from trying to promote a friendly atmosphere here in general).

And if people feel so strongly about this thread not being here, then please find a more creative way to deal with it than complaining on the thread itself. You can report it, or petition a moderator or an admin. I can hold a great big private conversation on the topic later if people want, but this thread will not be the place to do it.