**I posted this earlier as a reply, but felt it could be it's own topic. If others have detailed results, we can merge them for better chance percentiles.**
Against my better judgement, I decided to drop $200 and try to see what I could get for 900 spins. Since this is likely a one time thing for me, I wanted to be as detailed as possible in what I could get. Some items I could not track as I already had the items (gems, law runes, gold ore) but that should be minor. I put all the lamps toward agility (I think I was at level 72). I have a feeling that the rare results were skewed thanks to the Ceremonial outfit as the last 300 spins had 7 rare pop up (mostly 200k gp). Here are the results:
Common: 695 (71.6%)
Uncomm: 265 (27.3%)
Rare: 9 (0.9%)
Double Spin: 35
Common Lamp: 194 (104 any) - 20.0%
Uncomm Lamp: 127 (66 any) - 13.1%
Rare Lamp: 1
V. Rare Lamp: 1
Agi Exp: 0,854,676 xp
Gen Exp: 1,764,442 xp
GP: 3,790,000 gp
Do you think it was worth it?
Was it worth it? On the negative side, I helped give Jagex a reason to try another stunt like this (introducing rares) in the future since I essentially paid 30 months of membership. Hopefully though, this data can help convince players to not even consider doing this. That in turn can help convince Jagex that trying to push spins is a dead end route.
On the positive side, people that believe time is money have something to decide if they want to do this. Seeing that there's a predictable ratio of lamps to spins, you can determine your XP for your purchase. Maybe someone that makes a couple hundred dollars a day on a good job may find it useful to spend that much on a character instead of spending time. We use the term "disposable income", but I've noticed many players ignore the concept of "disposable time" as if 8 hours a day to play this game is something everyone has. I'm not completely against the idea of someone spending their time earning money, then using that money to save even more time in the game. For example, the 850k agility xp I got would take about 17 hours in the game so would it be so much that I worked 3 or 4 hours in a job I liked to earn enough to pay it? Maybe not, but if I had to work 25 hours though, that'd be idiotic. So, basically time=money.
One thing I just don't see this as is gambling. Assuming the black market rate on GP is about $0.50 per 1m gp then what 900 spins costs represent a potential 400m gp. The SoF does not even come close to that. Perhaps this is a good thing.