Sorry, Comrade, but Price Controls Don���¢�¢â�š�¬�¢â�ž�¢t Work

[Stone69_Eyes]

Always a fan of the articles Qeltar.

 

 

 

+1 Truthscape.com ftw

[monte]

 

It is more focused on my disappointment that Jagex created what could have been the ultimate tool for finally having a free, unhindered market in RuneScape, and then deliberately ruined it with ridiculously narrow trading ranges that make the majority of transactions impossible.

 

 

 

The intention was never to be an unhindered market and probably shouldn't have been. The intention was to stabilize prices for all items across the board and while it's going to take longer for some items then others (some poor initial pricing but overall I think they did OK), they will all get there.

 

 

 

I have a hard time believing an open market could have worked in rs at this point. There's too much money out there right now and too many legitimate items that would just be thrown into the GE for ridiculously low prices and would create too much price instability. I mean would a player with a few hundred million gp really care if he cleaned up his bank and threw everything onto the GE for 10gp each? Probably not.

[attackyomom]

I agree with what you say but I feel you may be making an early judgment call not saying I don't agree though. I don't know if you are familiar with the Law of large numbers but I either way I will state one part of it that I feel has a lot to do with this update and ridiculous prices. Simply stated the Law of Large numbers states as more simulations or trials are performed you get closer to the true mean in this case it would be the actual selling prices of items. We are in the first day of this update so it has a limited number of trials to take its data from this is why you may be seeing some ridiculous prices not saying this is the only thing but it certainly is a factor. As this update gets older and older we should see the prices become more and more accurate. The times when the prices will become inaccurate are when another update comes along and influences the supply or demand. Simply I think perhaps you should post another journal or report on your opinions of it in maybe monthÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s time maybe we need to wait for the law of large numbers to take effect?

 

 

 

Also another point I want to hit on that disappointed me was Jagex attempted to stabilize the economy by socialist or could be said mercantilist methods of controlling the economy by government intervention in this case Jagex intervention. Simply looking at past examples in history we should be able to learn from our mistakes having a mercantile or socialist economy creates a stagnant economy. Neither capable of great gain nor great loss. Look at the U.S. economy for example the New York Stock Exchange it is fairly capitalist sure it has a little socialism thrown in but mostly it is capitalist. The New York Stock Exchange and the U.S. Economy could be described to be very volatile which is a good and a bad thing. The Economy can go down the drain quick such as black Tuesday 1928 but we can also have great booms such as post WWII era. The point is in the attempt to stabilize the economy they are simply stagnating the economy. If the economy was more volatile we create more opportunity and with more opportunity we boost the economy.

[fat_klutz]

I think you may be overreacting this time. The price will ajust with time. Players cant use the grand exchange? Fine they will use normal trades at normal prices, which will modify the value of the item in the grand exchange. So eventually every single item will have the right price

 

 

 

Half his point is that the problem is that they will adjust with time but not fast enough.

[berbatovsky]

I agree with what you say but I feel you may be making an early judgment call not saying I don't agree though. I don't know if you are familiar with the Law of large numbers but I either way I will state one part of it that I feel has a lot to do with this update and ridiculous prices. Simply stated the Law of Large numbers states as more simulations or trials are performed you get closer to the true mean in this case it would be the actual selling prices of items. We are in the first day of this update so it has a limited number of trials to take its data from this is why you may be seeing some ridiculous prices not saying this is the only thing but it certainly is a factor. As this update gets older and older we should see the prices become more and more accurate. The times when the prices will become inaccurate are when another update comes along and influences the supply or demand. Simply I think perhaps you should post another journal or report on your opinions of it in maybe monthÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s time maybe we need to wait for the law of large numbers to take effect?

 

 

 

Also another point I want to hit on that disappointed me was Jagex attempted to stabilize the economy by socialist or could be said mercantilist methods of controlling the economy by government intervention in this case Jagex intervention. Simply looking at past examples in history we should be able to learn from our mistakes having a mercantile or socialist economy creates a stagnant economy. Neither capable of great gain nor great loss. Look at the U.S. economy for example the New York Stock Exchange it is fairly capitalist sure it has a little socialism thrown in but mostly it is capitalist. The New York Stock Exchange and the U.S. Economy could be described to be very volatile which is a good and a bad thing. The Economy can go down the drain quick such as black Tuesday 1928 but we can also have great booms such as post WWII era. The point is in the attempt to stabilize the economy they are simply stagnating the economy. If the economy was more volatile we create more opportunity and with more opportunity we boost the economy.

 

 

 

Attempts to stabilize the economy lead to stagnation? Um o.k that really doesn't make sense(think about it, how does trying to stop something failing lead to it staying the same?And even if it did that is more desirable than it continuing to collapse ). Stabilization after the crash of the entire world economy only occurred because of WW2 (and a big reason WW2 happened was the collapse). Harsh controls alongside reforms were put in place because they had to be put in place. 'New plan', new banking/brokering regulations/legislation etc...

 

 

 

There is no such thing as a completely unrestricted market in the entire world. If there were no restrictions then we'd have one company selling us everything for exactly the average wage. Microsoft got their [wagon] handed to them for being a monopoly, but in a truely unrestricted market they would be allowed to monopolize, in fact monopoly would be the end result of any company becoming dominant. Do I really have to say why a monopoly is bad? So if we agree monopoly is bad and should be stopped we agree we don't want a truely unlimited market. So if we're all agreed on that then we can stop talking about unrestricted markets because we all realize some restrictions are necessary.

 

In the real world (and hell thats what you all keep talking about) there are many mechanisms in place to monitor and regulate trade of all kinds.

 

Jagex creating price ranges is an attempt to thwart a problem before it began, I stand by my earlier assertion that if Jagex had adopted a 'you pick the price kids!!' format we'd have a forum full of complaints right now.

[Atroxide]

They have the max to stop from people selling chicken for 1mil, and having some 1 else buy to transfer money to another account, or real world trade.

 

However, the minimum doesn't do a thing.

 

 

 

I think they should change the max to 10%, and remove the minimum.

 

 

 

As like you said, I usually sell stuff dirt cheap to sell it quick. I don't want to sell it and have to wait for a buy, cause sometimes I need money that instant and not in 5 minutes.

[monkeyboo2]

wasn't quite following everything you said, but agreed, 5% does not allow enough flexibility, maybe 15% would allow players to have more control of prices.

 

What we are seeing is 'noobs' controlling blood rune prices, because they pick up 10 blood runes from here and there and think they are 700gp each. Enough of these noobs really crush the actual buying and selling of bloods (and possibly other items) on the GE.

 

 

 

Ps i kinda like the GE tbh, merchanting isn't gone, its just much more subtle.

 

buy 100k nats, wait for a rise in price, sell them 10 gp more...

 

Makes only 1 mil but you don't even have to put any effort into it. Its a passive one mil.

[Makoto_the_Phoenix]

Okay, so where do I start with this? Even if this article is well-written, it's come out too soon -- you don't have enough information to accuse Jagex of "controlling" prices.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, though, IÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢ve only actually been able to buy and sell about 10-15% of the items I wanted to trade. The other items I have had listed with buy or sell offers for many hours, but no transactions ever take place.

 

 

 

Consider selling or buying those items in a crowded server, such as World 1, 2, or 6. I've noted, that while it takes a while to trade with the Grand Exchange, the very idea that I can walk away from the trading grounds and go do something fun makes up for that. I can let them sit in there for as long as I like. Since members get six slots, and that one item isn't selling, and I need to sell or buy something else, I move on to the next slot.

 

 

 

No one told you to sit there and wait for your stuff to sell. That's fallacy #1.

 

 

 

 

The reason for this is not a flaw in the Grand Exchange, but rather with JagexÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s decision to implement price controls within the GE. Simply put, Jagex maintains ÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ãâ¦Ã¢â¬Åmarket priceÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬ÃâÃ

[Matok]

10% price range and live update of the GE prices every 6-12 hours.

 

quite simple isn't it?

 

 

 

[EDIT] hourly was a bit harsh :wink:

[Myweponsg00d]

You're all idiots. This is the first day of the GE. They dont know what exactly is going to be a good idea, because they cannot see the future. It is easy to say now what was stupid to do...but maybe they saw some good reasons to do it? Also the only thing that is different is that sudden changes wont be able to happen. For instance, if a new monster started dropping dragon chains fairly frequently, chains would drop like mad. Jagex says that if a ton of trades are in the bottom 5%, then the "Average" price will move down. They didn't say it will happen within the course of 12 hours or however long you monitored it before writing this article...it could take a few days or maybe a week for the price to come down.

 

 

 

Give it some time you freaking numbskulls. Atleast 24 hours...jesus.

[Matok]

Calm down lol nobody said its a bad feature.

 

It all depends of how dynamic/responsive this system will be

[guzoliub]

You're all idiots.

 

 

 

I liked that :)

 

 

 

The article is good (although a bit harsh), but the responce of EugenyG is the best read (for me) in the whole topic.

 

 

 

Hopefully Jagex will loosen a bit the grip on the GE once they feel more comfortable with the situation. When they have more feedback on what is going on in the GE. Maybe they just started conservatively to avoid big abuse loopholes.

[sijan]

The only reason I can see for the max price cap is to limit abuse by RWT's. If some noob wants to try and sell willows for 2k ea or magic logs for 20k, who says they are actually going to sell at those prices? I can try and sell power ammys for 25k each right now in World 2 Fally. Is anyone going to buy them? I doubt it. The reasoning that the cap keeps prices from rising to a ridiculous level is fallacious. Supply and demand would shut the idiots down pretty quickly when nobody buys from them.

 

 

 

So far, I'm not too disappointed in the GE itself. Love the concept - we'll have to see how it works in practice. I think the 24 hour clock between price adjustments is a bit long, but let's give it a week before we proclaim it Stalin's Socialist Stepchild.

 

 

 

I do have one BIG point of irritation - the tying of store prices to 'market' prices. I used to enjoy swinging by the store in whatever town I was in and ducking in to see if I could pick up a bargain or two. I thought nothing of making a dozen trips between bank and store to get a few hundred iron ores at a sweet price, or some cheap yews, or feathers or runes or whatever. Over the course of a week or two I'd gather enough of a particular resource do some crafting, fletching, herblore, etc.

 

 

 

I know I could get 1k of anything by going to the merchanters and buying at market prices, but that wasn't terribly exciting and made me feel dependent on outside sources to get anything I wanted to do done. Silly to some of you, I'm sure, but getting the most done with the least amount of gold expenditure is something I enjoy doing.

 

 

 

Now, at last glance at the general store, vials are 135 ea, no matter the quantity in stock, yews are 390, arrowheads and bolt tips are ridiculously priced - higher than I had ever seen them traded between two players - and the list goes on. To top it off, near as I can tell, the price the stores buy from you hasn't changed much. (If anyone has observed differently, feel free to correct me.)

 

 

 

In conclusion, I will agree that we need to wait and see how this all shakes out, especially with the changes that Jagex is bound to make in the next several days. However, I don't think it is unfair to say that there are things about this series of updates that we don't like. We may not all dislike the same thing(s), but I'm sure we can all agree there is something each of us can point to that looks less than promising.

 

 

 

My $.02.

[Returned3]

The Grand Exchange is great but, you can never sell a willow log there unless the price drops.

[Earth_Poet]

wow. i've really enjoyed reading the article and responses on this thread. there are obviously some players that know much more about the subject of the runescape economy than i. all i can say is what i personally thought about the GE coming.

 

 

 

i was hoping it was going to be more like an auction house....like ebay or something. you could place an item up and either auction it off for a certain time period to the highest bidder or have a "buy it now" feature. maybe my hopes were flawed. i don't know. in an auction type setting that would seem to compensate for the question of "what happens when a new item comes out" or "what if an item obtains a new, unexpected use?" when a new item is introduced the first few (if the player is smart) are usually auctioned off to see how much a buyer is willing to pay. that seems to set the initial price of the item.

 

 

 

the way the GE is currently set up i doubt i will use it very often for anything more than a glorified price guide.

[Ginger_Warrior]

There seems to be one running theme throughout this article, and this is; Jagex want control.

 

 

 

I'm half-with someone before who said this sounds more like a piece of political propaganda than a justified economic article. You fail to mention anywhere in this whole piece why that is actually a bad thing, almost as though you presume a free, open market is 'the way'.

 

 

 

Secondly, relating to that point, there are examples of successful state-controlled economies. OK, maybe they're not as strong as the US, or the Canadian, or any of the other open markets out there, but saying an economy cannot function simply because it is controlled by authoritarian powers is an evidently flawed viewpoint.

 

 

 

Likewise, no one ever said the RS economy has to be an open economy.

[Voldmort0]

Nicely thought out, yet huge topic. I'm glad we can count on you for some good discussions though.

 

In the case of the Grand Exchange, I think we should give Jagex time to improve it by "game experience", meaning, give them time to see how it's received by the players and how some of the details and caracteristics of this new trade system are more or less practical and helpful to the community.

 

The thing is, the GE is too huge and for the general pulic for them to get it all right at once, it's going to need alot of work and dedication from jagex to make it work as effectively as they could wish for, and for that they'll need both the players' acceptance and cooperation with constructive critism.

 

 

 

Lets give it time ;)

[Voldmort0]

There seems to be one running theme throughout this article, and this is; Jagex want control.

 

True. But after all these years of the players basically completely controlling the Runescape prices and market, we have our results: RL traders, gold farmers and thousands of Autoers.

 

They need control, and as long as they think of it thoroughly and dedicate themselves to it until people start getting used to their new methods and cooperate and accept it, they got to prove themselves worthy of the control they want to have over the RS market.

[God]

Would be nice if the market price changed after every transaction.

[onauric]

The article has a point.

 

 

 

Also imho the GE just makes it easier for gold farmers aka autoers.

 

 

 

Some items like rares should definitely have a more wide price range. I'm not so happy with this sovietscape now but we will see.

[IceBlackIce]

With all that sweet talk and extensive guides/reports/whatever you write i didnt saw a thing praising Jagex.

 

 

 

You even though are not a staker (you said it yourself) posted like 1m times bashing Jagex, now post another million times bashing Jagex and not a single post i see on summoning that is like one of the most waited updates/skill ever...why is that? You only write to bash things and get praised by the people who are affected by it?

[wakka102]

So far I've sold nearly 10m worth of stuff on the GE, seems to be working for me :)

[ikraz66]

[hide=Quote wall]

I tried to make clear in the article that this is not a complete analysis of the GE. And I also do say that I think it will likely improve as prices adjust.

 

 

 

It is more focused on my disappointment that Jagex created what could have been the ultimate tool for finally having a free, unhindered market in RuneScape, and then deliberately ruined it with ridiculously narrow trading ranges that make the majority of transactions impossible.

 

 

 

We have two completely different directions we approached this update from. You were hoping for a free trading system. I was just hoping they wouldn't remove 1 to 1 trading with this update. I'm understandably happy it didn't happen, at least not yet. For you, disappointment. For me, relief. Not saying it's perfect, but it could have been far worse.

 

 

 

1 to 1 trade limits are coming. They will wait until the GE stabilizes and we finish their beta testing for them, and then they'll do it. It won't be removed entirely, but the days of being able to trade large volumes or $ values directly are coming to an end, probably soon.

 

 

 

Yes, that's just speculation, but Jagex's recent pattern of changes involving ham-handed control grabs strongly suggests it, IMO.

[/hide]

 

 

 

I was actually worried about Jagex removing direct trades until yesterday. Then I realized, how can runescape possibly function without it, even with loot share and assist system. What would happen if I wanted to hire a bunch of people to help me with something, double nat running or anything like that. What if the 50 nats is above the maximum trade limit? What if we have a armadyl team and get a hilt drop? How will we share it if it requires trading 30m+ to each of the team mates? Sorry, but this just won't work.

 

 

 

Back to the main point of the article; Qeltar, what you want is a grand exchange where there is no preset "market price"? I understand changing the range to maybe +/- 20%, but a free market will not completely work if most people have no idea what an item is worth and no clues from the grand exchange helping them! Imagine that you are a low level trying to sell some grimy herbs in the grand exchange, but you have no idea what the price of them is, and you want to figure it out yourself. How do you do it? I guess you could start high and lower your requested price by a little bit each time until people start buying it. However, this is tedious and definitely fool proof, plus you would need to do it for EVERY item you want to sell in the Grand Exchange. Don't say to look up the price on the forums, if you did, you might as well sell it there too.

 

 

 

Just a side-thought: The most reliable method to find an item's market price imo, is to set up an auction. This is how initial prices of items are usually set after they are added to the game. The Grand exchange doesn't exactly have them, but the forums do. We will have to see how Jagex uses this to set the price of new items.

[Mstrling70]

Regardles if I agree with Qeltar or not, I respect his ability to communicate his point in well thought out language. There is nothing wrong with a discussion that is articulated well.

 

 

 

However, the controls that Jagex put in are necessary. Instead of thousands of trades across hundreds of locations on over a hundred servers, we now have one, unified market. This is a good thing, but without limits, it would be too easy to manipulate the prices of commodities.

 

 

 

The potential influence of gold farming organizations cannot be underestimated. For example, the price of maple logs has been on a general decline because more and more gold farmers are cutting and selling these logs. Now, these organizations could send an e-mail out to the thousands of people who are on the payroll, with instructions to buy and sell in such a way to raise the price of commodities such as maple logs. The system Jagex has put in place gives them enough time to review these transactions, and react to them in an appropriate way. Yes, they will have computer scripts to alert them of potential anomalies, but it will still take a human review to make a final determination as to whether the anomaly is normal noise, or statistically significant.

 

 

 

To put this into a real world comparison, and yes, the Runescape economy does follow general economic rules, diamonds are a commodity that most people are familiar with. You can go to many different places to buy diamonds, but the price for the same cut, size, and quality of a diamond in two different locations will be very close to the same. (I am not talking about jewelry, but the loose diamond itself.) The price doesn't vary much because there is one large company, De Beers, that controls enough of the market (40 to 50%) to influence the prices. Even when companies come in to play in this market, they still play by the rules that De Beers has set. Just look at Apollo Diamond as a prime example.

 

 

 

Even though diamond prices are not controlled by governments, which technically makes the diamond market "free", it isn't really free. One large company has enough control to set general prices. If Jagex didn't put controls on the Runescape market, the gold farming organizations will, and that would be a bad thing for Jagex, and probably, ultimately, bad for most of us who don't command millions of any single item.

 

 

 

Thanks for the good discussion.

[Evil_Medea]

Qeltar,

 

 

 

While I appreciate your point of view, I believe you are missing one fact that may be causing your difficulty in selling.

 

 

 

With the Grand Exchange, for the very first time, every RuneScape player is directly linked with every other player, as far as the economy is concerned.

 

 

 

Every player - whether logged in, logged out, no matter what server they are on. That is substantially different than what we had before. It is possible that the total number of sellers greatly outnumbers the total number of buyers, but that it was never really noticed before because the buyers were more likely to be online than the sellers, or many sellers (like me) were too lazy to stand in a bank shouting "selling blah" for hours on end.

 

 

 

I would give the Grand Exchange some time to work before making any decisions about it.

 

 

 

Jason