While I was raising my thieving in pyramid plunder I accientally let my energy run out. Once this happened, though, I seemed to loot the urns with much better success than when I did it when I was running, so I decided to look into it.

 

 

 

I ran 10 trips running and then 10 trips walking. Each trip I looted exactly 20 urns, and recorded the number of times I failed looting an urn. And this was all done on the 71 and 81 rooms, and was all done with 85 thieving. No level ups to intervene. Here are the results:

 

 

 

Running mess-ups

 

1. 8

 

2. 15

 

3. 10

 

4. 9

 

5. 4

 

6. 16

 

7. 7

 

8. 22

 

9. 10

 

10. 19

 

 

 

Walking mess-ups

 

1. 8

 

2. 8

 

3. 16

 

4. 13

 

5. 12

 

6. 10

 

7. 9

 

8. 14

 

9. 4

 

10. 10

 

 

 

Now, for the averages:

 

 

 

Running: 12

 

Walking: 10

 

 

 

I don't know if it's just coincidence, but it's definitely enough to convince me to walk from now on ;)

 

 

 

And also, it would kind of make sense. When you're running you're hasty and trying to get to the destination as fast as possible, but when you're walking you're calm and taking your time. Which you can't be hasty when trying to steal something :P

 

 

 

Discuss!

all rewards/results in any skill/minigame on runescape is completely luck based, always has been

I do believe it is better to walk, though.

There is no way that JAGeX actually took the time to program in a code that reduces your chance of successfully theiving when you have run toggled on. No way at all.

 

 

 

Either it's a glitch with the system, or you're just having bad luck. In my opinion, it's bad luck.

 

 

 

Not that I'd expect you to do so, but I wouldn't believe the results of just these few tests. If your data sample pool was larger (100+ trips) and you consistently come up with these numbers, then I'd have to agree. Otherwise, you're just having bad luck.

Get more results.

 

;)

steal from menaphite thugs it's better

You might be onto something here :ohnoes:

Do it 100 times at least. Your sample size is too small and the difference is marginal so it could easily just be down to luck.

Seeing as I went from 51-99 all at pyramid plunder, I can safely say that this isn't even close to true. You will get the same results walking, running, whatever. Also, even if this was the case, the extra time it would take you to get to the 71 and 81 rooms would easily make up for it, so either way its better to run.

 

 

 

BTW: Why do people find the need to always say to people who use pyramid plunder before 91 to use thugs? I realize that it is somewhat faster, but go do that and then do plunder and tell me which is faster in the long haul since you don't have to take a break every hour with cramps in your hand.

There is no way that JAGeX actually took the time to program in a code that reduces your chance of successfully theiving when you have run toggled on. No way at all.

 

 

 

Either it's a glitch with the system, or you're just having bad luck. In my opinion, it's bad luck.

 

 

 

Not that I'd expect you to do so, but I wouldn't believe the results of just these few tests. If your data sample pool was larger (100+ trips) and you consistently come up with these numbers, then I'd have to agree. Otherwise, you're just having bad luck.

 

took the time?!?!?!?!?! what are you talking about....

 

 

 

if (running == true) {

 

chanceOfSuccess -= .04;

 

}

 

 

 

Yes I know it wouldn't be that simple, but thats basically all they would need to add. it wouldn't take more then 5 minutes.

 

 

 

Once again some 1 assumes something about programming that they clearly have no idea about...

I doubt it has any real bearing and would count it to chance. Menaphite thugs with a blackjack is better xp if you're into getting carpal tunnel. Not me...

I really doubt it. Why would they put that into the skill? It is just pointless.

Let me explain how I think the success of urn looting is calced.

 

Each time you open an urn, the game thinks up a random number between say 0-120, and compares that to your thieving level. If the number is lower, you will succeed in looting the chest. If it's higher, you fail. Simple as that. The higher your thieving level, the less failing numbers the game can choose. It's how most "luck"-based operations work in any rpg, from D&D to WOW. This has nothing to do with whether you're walking or running. Besides, your averages are too close to be of any significant difference. The average PPer wouldn't even notice the change if he/she walked instead of running. And then there's the question Why?... why would Jagex implement a walk/run failrate difference into the game... it wouldn't make any sense whatsoever. Just excess code, more bits and bytes. :roll:

It's probably a coincidence. That's like saying you'll have more luck at a visage drop if you have a pet dragon with you - it just doesn't seem logical in Runescape. If you're that dedicated to discovering if there is a correlation or not, do at least 100 or so rounds for each.

 

 

 

Anyways, running helps you get to the last rooms faster, therefore having more time to loot the final rooms.

Let me explain how I think the success of urn looting is calced.

 

Each time you open an urn, the game thinks up a random number between say 0-120, and compares that to your thieving level. If the number is lower, you will succeed in looting the chest. If it's higher, you fail. Simple as that. The higher your thieving level, the less failing numbers the game can choose. It's how most "luck"-based operations work in any rpg, from D&D to WOW. This has nothing to do with whether you're walking or running. Besides, your averages are too close to be of any significant difference. The average PPer wouldn't even notice the change if he/she walked instead of running. And then there's the question Why?... why would Jagex implement a walk/run failrate difference into the game... it wouldn't make any sense whatsoever. Just excess code, more bits and bytes. :roll:

 

This is actually a very logical thought, that could actually be the way success rates are determined, nice job.

 

 

 

I doubt it has any real bearing and would count it to chance. Menaphite thugs with a blackjack is better xp if you're into getting carpal tunnel. Not me...

 

Amen

Your reasoning is like saying that you hit harder when you have walk on rather than run. There's just no correlation between walk/run and other skills.

Your reasoning is like saying that you hit harder when you have walk on rather than run. There's just no correlation between walk/run and other skills.

 

 

 

Except for agility.

Let me explain how I think the success of urn looting is calced.

 

Each time you open an urn, the game thinks up a random number between say 0-120, and compares that to your thieving level. If the number is lower, you will succeed in looting the chest. If it's higher, you fail.

 

 

 

Woah, that makes a lot of sense. The hit ratio of your attacks on other players or monsters must be something like that too, except that your weapon bonus and your opponent's armour bonus of the same type are also taken into consideration.

 

 

 

Gloves of Silence would either add a certain number to your thieving level, or decrease the random number span when the game picks a random number to determine if you fail or not when pickpocketing.

I am quite sure that the probability of successfully searching an urn is not affected by anything, including thieving level, which is to say that it is equal to the preset constant as imputed by Jagex.

 

 

 

The lack of conclusive findings (20% average difference in 10 tests) reinforced by the implausibility of the idea of such a correlation points to your findings being the result of luck (not coincidence; luck and coincidence are quite different).

I don't belive your data.

 

 

 

Why?

 

 

 

You claim to have looted EXACTLY 20 urns per run

 

 

 

Yet you claim on one run that you messed up 22 times

 

 

 

This clearly shows that you did not loot an exact number or you can't count well which means your data is probably completely wrong

You can fail more than once per urn.

While I was raising my thieving in pyramid plunder I accientally let my energy run out. Once this happened, though, I seemed to loot the urns with much better success than when I did it when I was running, so I decided to look into it.

 

 

 

I ran 10 trips running and then 10 trips walking. Each trip I looted exactly 20 urns, and recorded the number of times I failed looting an urn. And this was all done on the 71 and 81 rooms, and was all done with 85 thieving. No level ups to intervene. Here are the results:

 

 

 

Running mess-ups

 

1. 8

 

2. 15

 

3. 10

 

4. 9

 

5. 4

 

6. 16

 

7. 7

 

8. 22

 

9. 10

 

10. 19

 

 

 

Walking mess-ups

 

1. 8

 

2. 8

 

3. 16

 

4. 13

 

5. 12

 

6. 10

 

7. 9

 

8. 14

 

9. 4

 

10. 10

 

 

 

Now, for the averages:

 

 

 

Running: 12

 

Walking: 10

 

 

 

I don't know if it's just coincidence, but it's definitely enough to convince me to walk from now on ;)

 

 

 

And also, it would kind of make sense. When you're running you're hasty and trying to get to the destination as fast as possible, but when you're walking you're calm and taking your time. Which you can't be hasty when trying to steal something :P

 

 

 

Discuss!

 

 

 

uhm before reporting something as a fact you're always supposed to calculate the standarddeviation (S)..

 

 

 

If the sum in S is bigger than the difference between the avarages than the results are wothless. - This is one of the very basic things you learn when doing science.

 

 

 

I don't even have to calculate S in this case: I can easily see it's more than 1 (probably something like 2-3). This makes the results pointless. You would need at least 50 tests to draw any conclusions..

You can fail more than once per urn.

 

 

 

Yes but to fail more than once you have to loot it more than once ergo his facts r crazy.

 

 

 

If he looted every urn UNTIL he succesfully did it tht means each ruyn is 20 + number of fails

 

 

 

Which means they is no real control to it as each test will of had a different amount of attempted lootings, to draw real data from it not only do you need more results as the poster said above me but also you need more controlled data as in you loot 20 urns, as in you only loot each once and log whether u fail or succeed that way each test run has the same number of trials in it.

 

 

 

His data as it stands a 3 fail run has only 23 trials in it

 

While the 22 fail run has 42 trials in it

 

 

 

comparing these for doesn't prove anything because he hasn't done the same number of trials

You cannot draw meaningful conclusions from tests with so few samples. Period.

You can fail more than once per urn.

 

 

 

Yes but to fail more than once you have to loot it more than once ergo his facts r crazy.

 

 

 

If he looted every urn UNTIL he succesfully did it tht means each ruyn is 20 + number of fails

 

 

 

Which means they is no real control to it as each test will of had a different amount of attempted lootings, to draw real data from it not only do you need more results as the poster said above me but also you need more controlled data as in you loot 20 urns, as in you only loot each once and log whether u fail or succeed that way each test run has the same number of trials in it.

 

 

 

His data as it stands a 3 fail run has only 23 trials in it

 

While the 22 fail run has 42 trials in it

 

 

 

comparing these for doesn't prove anything because he hasn't done the same number of trials

 

 

 

What he means is that you can fail the same urn more than once without getting any exp or treasure. It's the exp + item part that counts as looting. You're assuming that simply clicking on the urn is defined as looting, which is not so. On each run, he successfully gained exp from 20 urns.