Yagami Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 I know this is very controversial, but I'm thinking about killing 12,852 Black Dragons over the summer and getting 99 Range in the process. Do I have a decent chance at a visage? Yes, I already know I have a chance on the first kill, I understand it all, But I know the drop-rate is unheard of. Just a kind of estimate, anyone? :-k I would like to get the most difficult 99 in the game to accomplish. which is woodcutting. because I had a drunken night in philadelphia and sprayed a fire extinguiser, evacuated a 7 story hotel on the philly stadium, spent the night in jail.. then got on level 2 prob & have to pay 50 a month because I have a job. It's their way of collecting more money out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blurrythorn Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Id estimate you'd get a minimum of two if you kill over 12k black dragons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuneAge Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Well, when i went on my Black dragon hunting spree, i killed roughly 1000-2000 of them, and i didn't get a visage drop, it's all a matter of chance, this is unconfirmed, but i think if you talk to Oziach while wielding a anti dragon shield, it ups you chances of recieveing one as a drop. Click my signature for my blog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_r_slayer Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Do 10k+ irons with me instead! *points at blog* I intend to get at least one visage, wouldn't be surprised if 10k metal/black yielded 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiriyama Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 S'all luck. You could get 0, you could get 10. Don't go camping expecting to get a drop. That is what makes it harder and more disappointing. Just count on the hides for income. At the current mid price, the hides would fetch you 41,254,920GP. Better than a visage and it is 100% chance. I mean, I went to them while bored, and got one in like... 12 kills or something, while other people have gone thousands without. Denizen of Darkness| PSN= sworddude198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CampbellMC Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Do 10k+ irons with me instead! *points at blog* I intend to get at least one visage, wouldn't be surprised if 10k metal/black yielded 2-3. I camped irons for about 12k kills, got no visages, then 2 slayer tasks after I got one. It is all luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wachtwoord Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Assuming the drop rate is 1:6000, the change of not getting a visage is ~13%. With a 1:3000 drop rate, change is only 1.8%. With a 1:9000 drop rate, change is 26%. With a 1:12.000 drop rate: 36%. It's just what you call a "good shot". When everything's been said and done, more has been said than done.All skills 80+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinguimmaiden Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Yea, you will get at least 1-2 on the way + the cash you will earn from the bones & hides, so its a good idea if you can stand it :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inuashakent Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Why not kill Aviancies and make 5x more money guaranteed? [Summoning guide (AOW)] [Slayer guide] [Melee & Brawl player] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiriyama Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Yea, you will get at least 1-2 on the way + the cash you will earn from the bones & hides, so its a good idea if you can stand it :) No. You cannot say he will get one. Assuming it is a 1:6000 chance. His chance of getting one does not increase with each kill, its remains 1:6000 per drop. Denizen of Darkness| PSN= sworddude198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloodrex Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Yea, you will get at least 1-2 on the way + the cash you will earn from the bones & hides, so its a good idea if you can stand it :) No. You cannot say he will get one. Assuming it is a 1:6000 chance. His chance of getting one does not increase with each kill, its remains 1:6000 per drop. and you got this info from how many visage drops? you will most likely get one. and their other drops are quite good to so i'd say it's a good choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiriyama Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 ... Look, I just used a number that Wachtwood supplied for my example okay? And Blood, its all a matter of probability. You cannot say he will likely aquire one. Its like putting all the items a Black Dragon can possibly drop into a sack. You put them in according to their drop rate. So say the Visage is the rarest, and you put it in amongst all the other drops at the ratio provided by the Visage, so coins may be 2000:6000 chance etc... Each time you take a piece of paper with the name of the item drop, you then put it back to be drawn again. You always have the same chance of pulling something out. Each Dragon is independant of others you have killed. They each have their own sack with drops basically. So you pull out the drop of the Dragon's sack and then, said sack is discarded. I've tried to explain probability simply for those who are saying he will get one, or he has a good chance at one. Denizen of Darkness| PSN= sworddude198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadukar123 Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Well, when i went on my Black dragon hunting spree, i killed roughly 1000-2000 of them, and i didn't get a visage drop, it's all a matter of chance, this is unconfirmed, but i think if you talk to Oziach while wielding a anti dragon shield, it ups you chances of recieveing one as a drop. WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG. Do NOT make uninformed statements like "Talk to Oziach or you won't get visage!" You do NOT have to talk to him to get a drop. Drops: Misc: Abyssal Whip x28 , Dark Bow x5, Beserker Ring x3, Warrior ring x1 Dragon: Dragon Platelegs x2 , Dragon Plateskirt x2, Dragon Boots x38, Dragon Med Helm x4, Shield left half x3 Godwars: Godsword shard x13, Bandos Hilt x3, Bandos Chestplate x6, Bandos Tassets x4, Bandos Boots x5, Saradomin Sword x1, Zamorakian Spear x1,. Armadyl Helm x2, Armadyl chestplate x2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seraphi Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Why not kill Aviancies and make 5x more money guaranteed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweetvictory Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 My friend just got a visage like last week -.- and he just got another one on tuesday -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- the S.O.B. i guess what im trying to say is that you better pray that ur as lucky as he is this is gonna take a while.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inuashakent Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Well, when i went on my Black dragon hunting spree, i killed roughly 1000-2000 of them, and i didn't get a visage drop, it's all a matter of chance, this is unconfirmed, but i think if you talk to Oziach while wielding a anti dragon shield, it ups you chances of recieveing one as a drop. WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG. Do NOT make uninformed statements like "Talk to Oziach or you won't get visage!" You do NOT have to talk to him to get a drop. Very true. My brother hasn't and he got a visage. [Summoning guide (AOW)] [Slayer guide] [Melee & Brawl player] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinguimmaiden Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 My friend just got a visage like last week -.- and he just got another one on tuesday -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- the S.O.B. i guess what im trying to say is that you better pray that ur as lucky as he is See thats why the rate drops don't work, he got 2 visages in 2 weeks...its all luck, but i believe that he can get 1-2 visages on the way for sure :thumbup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyderJ Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 After killing 1k iron dragons, and 500 steels without even getting legs/skirt, 200 solo Zilyana kills without even a sword, 200 group Arma kills with a single godsword shard as the best drop, I've learned to go for the sure things in my goals. GO TO THE AVIANSIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yagami Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 After killing 1k iron dragons, and 500 steels without even getting legs/skirt, 200 solo Zilyana kills without even a sword, 200 group Arma kills with a single godsword shard as the best drop, I've learned to go for the sure things in my goals. GO TO THE AVIANSIES. Aviantese? :| After killing many thousands of them, I came to an average of 2,923gp per kill, now, I'd need to kill 29,328 Aviantese to get 99 Range, And that would make me approximately 84m in bars and alchs. Killing 12,812 Black Dragons would make me at least 70m in hides and bones, but at least one visage would push me probably higher than the Aviansie drops. Not considering the fact that any clue I got from black Dragons, I could do then and there since trips are short and can be started easily. Also my friend had enough half key drops to sell for over 1m in 800 kills. And I'm not gonna start talking about the other drops along the way. I just find that if I go to Aviantese, I feel like I have to stay there, if you leave, it's annoying getting all set up and stuff, whereas Black Dragons are easily impulsively killed. ...I'm an OCD type, I wouldn't want to leave Aviantese unless my KC was 1k, 2k, 3k or 4k. :) And that'd put me off of playing all together. And another thing, most of the money from Dragons is going on Farming, so I'd want to farm whilst killing them, which is kind of a "no-go" for being inside a God's Battlefield. I would like to get the most difficult 99 in the game to accomplish. which is woodcutting. because I had a drunken night in philadelphia and sprayed a fire extinguiser, evacuated a 7 story hotel on the philly stadium, spent the night in jail.. then got on level 2 prob & have to pay 50 a month because I have a job. It's their way of collecting more money out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yagami Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Well, when i went on my Black dragon hunting spree, i killed roughly 1000-2000 of them, and i didn't get a visage drop, it's all a matter of chance, this is unconfirmed, but i think if you talk to Oziach while wielding a anti dragon shield, it ups you chances of recieveing one as a drop. No no no. Just no. Sorry. :wall: My friend just got a visage like last week -.- and he just got another one on tuesday -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- -.- the S.O.B. i guess what im trying to say is that you better pray that ur as lucky as he is See thats why the rate drops don't work, he got 2 visages in 2 weeks...its all luck, but i believe that he can get 1-2 visages on the way for sure :thumbup: Yeah, there's a good chance I can get one, maybe 2, In all honestly there's a chance I could get 12 but there aren't any reliable drop rates out there to have a good guideline. So there's still a chance that I'd get none. At least the 100% drops are decent. :roll: I would like to get the most difficult 99 in the game to accomplish. which is woodcutting. because I had a drunken night in philadelphia and sprayed a fire extinguiser, evacuated a 7 story hotel on the philly stadium, spent the night in jail.. then got on level 2 prob & have to pay 50 a month because I have a job. It's their way of collecting more money out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bladewing Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 Assuming the drop rate is 1:9000, 23.98% chance that you get 0 34.24% chance that you get 1 24.45% chance that you get 2 11.64% chance that you get 3 4.15% chance that you get 4 1.54% chance that you get 5 or more I'll let you decide whether this is a "good chance" or not. For your information, this method is incredibly inefficient. It would be much faster to make money at, say, green dragons for 600k/hour and buy chinchompas to get 99 ranged. With all the extra time you'll have, you can make far more money at green dragons or SGWD or what have you. How to Chin Nechyraels for fast XP and profit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aslan Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 2nd wyvern task.1st one I complete.About 100 kills and I get a visage.What's with those drop rates...? :roll: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgmr185 Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 After killing many thousands of them, I came to an average of 2,923gp per kill, now, I'd need to kill 29,328 Aviantese to get 99 Range, And that would make me approximately 84m in bars and alchs. Killing 12,812 Black Dragons would make me at least 70m in hides and bones, but at least one visage would push me probably higher than the Aviansie drops. Not considering the fact that any clue I got from black Dragons, I could do then and there since trips are short and can be started easily. Also my friend had enough half key drops to sell for over 1m in 800 kills. And I'm not gonna start talking about the other drops along the way. I just find that if I go to Aviantese, I feel like I have to stay there, if you leave, it's annoying getting all set up and stuff, whereas Black Dragons are easily impulsively killed. ...I'm an OCD type, I wouldn't want to leave Aviantese unless my KC was 1k, 2k, 3k or 4k. :) And that'd put me off of playing all together. And another thing, most of the money from Dragons is going on Farming, so I'd want to farm whilst killing them, which is kind of a "no-go" for being inside a God's Battlefield.I guess that you have to keep in mind that nothing that you do is going to kill you. Over my Runescape life I've had much worse ideas than this. The good part is that you aren't locked in, and you can quit anytime you like. After 2k or 6k dragons you may realize that it's not that great an idea and move on to something else. Now, if you are actually looking for advice, here's what I've got... 1) Black dragons take a lot of time to kill. I'll bet that you can kill 4 avainses in the time it takes to kill one dragon.That will throw a wrench into your bones/hides vs. addy bars calculation. In the same amount of time you'll end up with tons more XP and GP at avainses. 2) It takes a lot less time to get to GWD that you think it does. Unless you don't have Trollheim teleport, the run there is pretty similar to the run to the Evil chicken's lair. Maybe a little longer, but only a matter of seconds. You can still do clues and farming just as easy. 3) If you really tend to OCD then hitting 0,0,0,0,15,0,0,0,8,0,0,0,0,0,0,5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0..... is going to drive you crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wordsofthelord Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 I have taken to killing iron dragons, but I am not doning so in hopes of a visage. Sure it would be nice, but it gets frustrating when I am vissage hunting. I gave up the "hunt" a long time ago and just kill them for fun/other drops. I have gotten a few dragon legs and skirts as drops and I dont think I have killed more than 500 of them. I cont myself lucky everytime I see a piece of dragon armour in the loot pile. If you kill the black dragons kill them for fun not for a vissage. If you hunt for the vissage you will get burned out fast if you dont get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SixFootOne Posted May 24, 2009 Share Posted May 24, 2009 I can tell you there is no guarantee of getting one, i did the exact same thing and killed 13k black dragons. No visage :x . I did end up with about 20mil in junk though :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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