Personalized Shops and Long-term Effects

[sciencemile]

So I've been thinking over the recent update and I said to myself; "You know, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that there are going to be some major changes that come about from this."

 

 

 

Of course, a lot are speculative, some are immediate, and the others are just hunches. As such I thought I'd share a few of these predictions with you guys, and you can disagree, discuss, or add your own predictions :D

 

 

 

1. With the number of Shards in Summoning Shops too small for serious and quick high-level training, the excess shards on the GE will dry up, and people will begin to buy up previously unbought pouches in order to make shards faster.

 

 

 

- Prices of Pouches will rise greatly over time

 

 

 

2. With the stock for commonly bought items such as feathers no longer infinite, ammunition requiring them as components will rise in price along with the feathers.

 

 

 

- Fletching will become more profitable in general

 

- Fly Fishing in Shilo might actually generate a loss if demand for trout and salmon is inelastic enough.

 

 

 

3. Currently you can buy Willow and Maple Logs on the GE and sell the unstrung bows fletched with them for a profit to the General Store.

 

 

 

- Price of Maples and Willows will rise

 

- GE value of Willow and Maple Bows will go down to slightly below the General Store price.

 

- More inflation will commence as more gp is brought in through the liquidation of junk

 

 

 

4. The new F2P skill may revolve around personal shops (Codename: Entrepreneurship Skill)

 

- New levels will mean more stock, discounted prices, or even new items.

 

- Player owned store/farm/factory/mine/manufacturing plant?

[Tesset]

It's too early to say anything about shops, at least until we know what Jagex is planning next week, if not long term.

[Toad]

Jagex are replenishing stocks of shards next week, and there are several places you can buy feathers from, and hourly too right? so really you don't really lose out.

 

 

 

Also it's nice to see the stock of shards, atleast they aren't a useless item atm.

[Dexek]

I'm just curious as to whether or not the price on furies has been fixed or will be fixed. I believe it's 9x greater to buy an onyx gem from the Tzhaar shop than it previously was. Unless we potentially gain a source of onyx gems aside from this shop?

[Unknown_Warrior]

I'm just curious as to whether or not the price on furies has been fixed or will be fixed. I believe it's 9x greater to buy an onyx gem from the Tzhaar shop than it previously was. Unless we potentially gain a source of onyx gems aside from this shop?

 

 

 

Actually more than 10x. It used to be 268K Tokkul with Karamja gloves discount. The value of Tokkul was decided by selling items to the shops with said gloves. The cheapest thing to do was well Fire runes (which always generated 1 Tokkul with gloves equipped), so the value of Tokkul was dictated by that and a few other things (making it around 10-11:1 GP:Tokkul-ratio).

 

 

 

However, now with the gloves nerf, everything sold will lose a significant portion of Tokkul, because most equipment was worth 2.5x their normal sell value with gloves equiped, and Fire runes sell for 0 without Gloves and too much of them in stock.

 

 

 

So Onyx was already heading up to its initial price of 4M as it was back in the day. And, for some reason, Jagex felt obliged to up the price of Onyx to 2.7M Tokkul. A mistake probably, but it'll probably be a few weeks until they notice it, like they usually do.

[mrph3r]

Feathers will likely not rise about 10gp each (the price they were before all of the recent updates). People will just stop flyfishing as much.

 

 

 

 

 

The one that I see coming back to haunt more people will be watered vials. These were 250 each or so back before the recent updates - they could rise that high again. I myself usually buy from Obli to start with, in bunches of 400-600 for my farmed herbs, but the skillbuyers will be looking for more on the Exchange.

[Bladewing]

Another item that will rise in price and then nearly disappear is pineapple pizzas. Before you could buy pizzas in unlimited stock from the Warrior's Guild. The default stock there is 0.

[No_99_Melee]

Fly Fishing in Shilo might actually generate a loss if demand for trout and salmon is inelastic enough.

 

 

 

Woah woah woah woah woah... I already took micro and macroeconomics once so please spare me the technical jargon.

 

 

 

Other than that I don't see much of a flaw in your predictions, but remember that any speculation is subject to change at any given moment ;) ... I.e. Jagex finally realizes that its ok to take back a crappy update.

[Bladewing]

... I.e. Jagex finally realizes that its ok to take back a crappy update.

 

I think it's a good update - it never made sense to me to have shops with unlimited stock. But I think a few tweaks need to be made: shops need to stock items that they don't currently (pineapple pizzas are one example), maximum stock sizes need to be increased for many items (spirit shards, feathers, etc.), restock speeds could be adjusted for some items.

 

 

 

One thing I would like to see is stock sizes increase proportionately to total level. (Yes maybe I am a little bit greedy) :lol:

 

 

 

EDIT: Inelastic Demand means that a change in price does not affect the quantity demanded significantly. So the statement should read elastic.

[sciencemile]

@#99 Melee

 

 

 

>.< yeah, I have a hard time remembering which one means "% rise in price < % decrease in demand".

 

 

 

It'd be Elastic then, I think.

[J35u5_M4]

Let's hope they do something about the shards, else summoning will be even more expensive >.>

[Kilo]

This update has recieved more criticism it seems than the infinite stock update because people are worried more now. Or because things are changing.. :P

 

I don't think it will inconvience anyone too badly, I mean infinite stock really messed with pretty much everything.

[Mike_Ike111]

Well if the next skill is a merchanting skill, then this update makes perfect sense and the stocks, prices, and speeds of restocking will most likely be relative to your level in the skill.

 

 

 

If so, chances are prices will not change at all.

[KingJD]

I'm just really sad they ruined general stores. They took out one of the few things that dates all the way back to classic that I always enjoyed as going to the general store in Varrock was a great place to buy a whole variety of random items.

 

 

 

Long term effects = me crying every time i see a general store icon

[totalpwnage]

I'm just curious as to whether or not the price on furies has been fixed or will be fixed. I believe it's 9x greater to buy an onyx gem from the Tzhaar shop than it previously was. Unless we potentially gain a source of onyx gems aside from this shop?

 

 

 

Actually more than 10x. It used to be 268K Tokkul with Karamja gloves discount. The value of Tokkul was decided by selling items to the shops with said gloves. The cheapest thing to do was well Fire runes (which always generated 1 Tokkul with gloves equipped), so the value of Tokkul was dictated by that and a few other things (making it around 10-11:1 GP:Tokkul-ratio).

 

 

 

However, now with the gloves nerf, everything sold will lose a significant portion of Tokkul, because most equipment was worth 2.5x their normal sell value with gloves equiped, and Fire runes sell for 0 without Gloves and too much of them in stock.

 

 

 

So Onyx was already heading up to its initial price of 4M as it was back in the day. And, for some reason, Jagex felt obliged to up the price of Onyx to 2.7M Tokkul. A mistake probably, but it'll probably be a few weeks until they notice it, like they usually do.

 

 

THATS why it was changed to 2.7m - people were getting onyx for about 400k then they had to disable the shops temporarily. Now its 2.7m.

 

Fire runes will eventually hit 5 tokkul per fire rune - 3.7m or so for an onyx using nothing but fires (but it takes 540k of those)

 

chaos are pointless of course.

[SwreeTak]

I agree with you on it all except the summoning one. Probably people will keep buying shards and pouches like they always have anyway...

[hohto]

I personally don't like this update.

 

 

 

it removes money drains from the game. If people start getting shards by buying pouches instead of using the shard seller, it will have an affect on the money floading at the markets. The basic idea of this is the following: as shards can't be bought in large amounts, people have to buy pouches to swap. This increases the pouch prices and thus benefits people who have the pouches. Same with many other items too. This means you will put around the same amount of money to the skill but receive more back. It may not become profitable, but it will leave more money to circulation.

 

 

 

With more money in circulation 2 things increase: the capital to invest (=merchant) and the ability to use more money on your needs. This has bigger affect on those who are using a lot of money on skills, so I'll concentrate on them. First of all, with more "leftover money" the chances to merchant increase. This means more dramatical investions as the people investing have more capital. Also more investion "clubs" can come through this, meaning a larger variety of items can be merchanted. Not to mention with this new shop system there's a larger variety of things to merchant: I don't want to be any doomsday profet, but with that amount of fire or air runes at stock, merchanting them is possible too and the inability to buy those in reasonable amounts might lead into a panic. You already saw prayer potions, how about items that are used daily in both f2p and p2p and by a lot more people?

 

 

 

This also has an affect on luxury items and raw materials. If you have more money to spend and you're not into merchanting, you either buy those or leave the money to your bank. The increasing amount of bought luxury items (gwd drops, rares, etc) affect to their prices too. The rising prices of course attract some "merchanters" who aren't organized: the assumption of an item rising tomorrow too lowers the chances to invest on it. On raw materials the rise comes from increasing demand: with more money to use on them, the more their prices rise, at least temporary. This might however go backwards with fishing. As feathers don't become items that you can just buy from the store and "last forever with them", I'd imagine more and more fishers going for monkfish, lobsters, swordies or sharks. However cooking is a skill that might benefit a lot from the increased amount of usable money, so it's now hard to predict the equilibrium prices. The increased supply (=flyfishers gone to these fish) could drop the prices, but the increased demand (=more money to spend) could keep the prices around the current or even rise them.

 

 

 

This update of course has positive sides too, but in my eyes the cons outnumber pros.

 

 

 

edit; And I sure hope the next skill won't be like summoning and require a heavy number of shard-like items. If the skill is like that, you don't need to be an economist to predict a massive "buy and sell fest".

[bedman]

I personally don't like this update.

 

 

 

it removes money drains from the game. If people start getting shards by buying pouches instead of using the shard seller, it will have an affect on the money floading at the markets. The basic idea of this is the following: as shards can't be bought in large amounts, people have to buy pouches to swap. This increases the pouch prices and thus benefits people who have the pouches. Same with many other items too. This means you will put around the same amount of money to the skill but receive more back. It may not become profitable, but it will leave more money to circulation.

 

 

 

With more money in circulation 2 things increase: the capital to invest (=merchant) and the ability to use more money on your needs. This has bigger affect on those who are using a lot of money on skills, so I'll concentrate on them. First of all, with more "leftover money" the chances to merchant increase. This means more dramatical investions as the people investing have more capital. Also more investion "clubs" can come through this, meaning a larger variety of items can be merchanted. Not to mention with this new shop system there's a larger variety of things to merchant: I don't want to be any doomsday profet, but with that amount of fire or air runes at stock, merchanting them is possible too and the inability to buy those in reasonable amounts might lead into a panic. You already saw prayer potions, how about items that are used daily in both f2p and p2p and by a lot more people?

 

 

 

This also has an affect on luxury items and raw materials. If you have more money to spend and you're not into merchanting, you either buy those or leave the money to your bank. The increasing amount of bought luxury items (gwd drops, rares, etc) affect to their prices too. The rising prices of course attract some "merchanters" who aren't organized: the assumption of an item rising tomorrow too lowers the chances to invest on it. On raw materials the rise comes from increasing demand: with more money to use on them, the more their prices rise, at least temporary. This might however go backwards with fishing. As feathers don't become items that you can just buy from the store and "last forever with them", I'd imagine more and more fishers going for monkfish, lobsters, swordies or sharks. However cooking is a skill that might benefit a lot from the increased amount of usable money, so it's now hard to predict the equilibrium prices. The increased supply (=flyfishers gone to these fish) could drop the prices, but the increased demand (=more money to spend) could keep the prices around the current or even rise them.

 

 

 

This update of course has positive sides too, but in my eyes the cons outnumber pros.

 

 

 

edit; And I sure hope the next skill won't be like summoning and require a heavy number of shard-like items. If the skill is like that, you don't need to be an economist to predict a massive "buy and sell fest".

 

 

 

It doesnt remove a money drain from the game. The majority of the pouches were already exchanged for shards before. I NEVER bought shards that bogrog guy, because I could get my shards for 22 each by buying pouches and exchanging. Therefore, it was quite hard to get pouches (takes a day or so to fulfill offer). This means, all pouches that were made, were being sold. Even more, there was a higher demand than a supply. Now the demand is even highe, and pouch prices will go up in prices, untill you pay essentially 25 (or more) each per shard by buying pouches and exchanging.

[hohto]

It doesnt remove a money drain from the game. The majority of the pouches were already exchanged for shards before. I NEVER bought shards that bogrog guy, because I could get my shards for 22 each by buying pouches and exchanging. Therefore, it was quite hard to get pouches (takes a day or so to fulfill offer). This means, all pouches that were made, were being sold. Even more, there was a higher demand than a supply. Now the demand is even highe, and pouch prices will go up in prices, untill you pay essentially 25 (or more) each per shard by buying pouches and exchanging.

 

 

 

The ones who knew what they were doing bought pouches, majority bought straight from the npc. If everyone had been rational, there wouldn't have been the need for people to (try to) sell their shards, either as junk or for junk.

 

 

 

Now there's basically no need for anyone to buy shards from the npcs due the fact that you won't get a proper amount of them. This means the leftover shards (or pouches) can be sold to others for a reasonable price, meaning they won't become junk like they were a week ago. With an update like this you can expect to see higher demand for pouches, meaning shards will soon be over 25gp per at the streets, no matter do you try to buy pouches or not.

[kingbrooks]

Well a long term effect that no-one has mentioned is that bone bolts will no longer be an efficient way of training range as they will become pretty much extinct.

[Hajutze]

Well a long term effect that no-one has mentioned is that bone bolts will no longer be an efficient way of training range as they will become pretty much extinct.

 

I mentioned that at the other thread but since no one payed any attention ... I think they will increase the cap to 1000 soon because 10 is ridiculous .. I stocked 150k in the bank - it should be 'nuff for the next month.

 

 

 

btw one change that I like

 

I had to start a new account (doesnt matter why) and I am training fletching ATM and it seems profitable.

 

1 willow log = 12-14gp

 

1 willow shortbow (u) = 20-40 gp (20 most of the time) at the show

 

1 willow longbow (u) = 32-64 gp

 

 

 

1 maple log = 35-39 gp

 

1 maple shortbow (u) = 40-80 gp

 

1 maple longbow (u) = 64-128

 

 

 

1 yew log = 427-473 gp

 

1 yew shortbow (u) = 80-160

 

1 yew longbow (u) = 128-256

 

 

 

I switched to maples now, but I think its similiar with them too ... can someone check the case with yew and (prays) magic short and longbows please.

 

Basicly Maple and Willow Bows (u) are profitable

[ladycai]

As junk maybe :\ (Yesterday before I looked at GE prices, there were two people at Draynor Bank who were buying 50k willow logs ... :P)

 

 

 

Since I turned f2p I haven't seen too many situations where it would affect me, all except for the limited water runes. I almost always bought water runes from a Aubury in Varrock, and now supply is limited and all we have is G.E. My pure's been struggling with bronze arrows too.

 

 

 

I can't imagine how others are taking this though - raw bird meats, raw beef (from that guy in Canifis), vials, and all those other items are going low on supply ...

[Hajutze]

As junk maybe :\ (Yesterday before I looked at GE prices, there were two people at Draynor Bank who were buying 50k willow logs ... :P)

 

 

well they are profitable without being junk ...

 

1 maple longbow = 29 gp profit (its not so hard to sell few x1000 of those)

[ladycai]

I stand corrected. I don't see why someone would buy junk for 100% of its value, though ... Are you talking about a general store?

[Hajutze]

I stand corrected. I don't see why someone would buy junk for 100% of its value, though ... Are you talking about a general store?

 

Yep I was talking about the shop (I didnt mentioned that, I count it as my mistake :D)

 

 

 

You can buy the logs from G.E. , make the (u) bows and then sell them at the general shop for 29 gp profit (and the time wasted for selling them aint that much either)