Potential Accurate Droprates

[wioneo]

With adventurer's logs, now every boss kill in the entire game(barring private logs) is recorded and publically available. So would it not be theoretically possible for someone to create a script that scans through every players log(no idea how long this would take or even if it is possible) and then tally up the numbers of each individual drop? "Normal" monsters such as strykewyrms and abbysal demons would not be eligible due to the fact that only rare drop kills get recorded, but for the bigger monsters, isn't this an opportunity to greatly reduce the ambiguity of "luck" in runescape?

[Kimberly]

I don't see why it couldn't. Runescript can already retrieve your last five entries from your Adventure's Log, for example. Adding in the calculations to that wouldn't be too much harder in theory. But the sample size would have to be monstrously large, wouldn't it?

 

Hell, you could probably pitch the idea to one of the regulars of the Programming and Web Design forum and they might actually WANT to try it.

[Guthorm]

I don't see why not, as Lady Ninane said, you need a pretty big sample size and a couple of people to go bossing. Still I would rather Jagex just release the drop rates for the items, dunno whats the point of hiding them.

[010jonathan]

With adventurer's logs, now every boss kill in the entire game(barring private logs) is recorded and publically available. So would it not be theoretically possible for someone to create a script that scans through every players log(no idea how long this would take or even if it is possible) and then tally up the numbers of each individual drop? "Normal" monsters such as strykewyrms and abbysal demons would not be eligible due to the fact that only rare drop kills get recorded, but for the bigger monsters, isn't this an opportunity to greatly reduce the ambiguity of "luck" in runescape?

Only the rare drops get recorded. Unless I miss something, how do you know how many kills were performed before the drop was dropped?

[010jonathan]

@gromhell5,

 

Releasing them has no particular meaning or use for anyone. A luck drop rate doesn't mean you'll get the drop in that many kills. You got a particular chance you'll have it in that many drops. Runescape is played by many children who can't relativate things, they don't know the mathematics behind a probability. Therefore nor Jagex, nor any other game developer actually releases drop rates.

[John Halo Chief]

With adventurer's logs, now every boss kill in the entire game(barring private logs) is recorded and publically available. So would it not be theoretically possible for someone to create a script that scans through every players log(no idea how long this would take or even if it is possible) and then tally up the numbers of each individual drop? "Normal" monsters such as strykewyrms and abbysal demons would not be eligible due to the fact that only rare drop kills get recorded, but for the bigger monsters, isn't this an opportunity to greatly reduce the ambiguity of "luck" in runescape?

Only the rare drops get recorded. Unless I miss something, how do you know how many kills were performed before the drop was dropped?

You're missing something. It tells you how many times you've killed a certain boss monster. Example: "I killed 11 Kree'arra's." It doesn't tell you you got the drop, there's a seperate log for that.

[Guthorm]

I am pretty sure WoW does. Still people has to understand someday just because it has a 10% drop rate does not mean you will get it in ten kills.

[010jonathan]

With adventurer's logs, now every boss kill in the entire game(barring private logs) is recorded and publically available. So would it not be theoretically possible for someone to create a script that scans through every players log(no idea how long this would take or even if it is possible) and then tally up the numbers of each individual drop? "Normal" monsters such as strykewyrms and abbysal demons would not be eligible due to the fact that only rare drop kills get recorded, but for the bigger monsters, isn't this an opportunity to greatly reduce the ambiguity of "luck" in runescape?

Only the rare drops get recorded. Unless I miss something, how do you know how many kills were performed before the drop was dropped?

You're missing something. It tells you how many times you've killed a certain boss monster. Example: "I killed 11 Kree'arra's." It doesn't tell you you got the drop, there's a seperate log for that.

O_o is that an update to adventure's logs? I could swear this is the first time i see this

[Aslan]

http://forums.zybez.net/topic/1340287-drop-rate-ratios-from-the-adventure-log/page__hl__tlin25__fromsearch__1

End of thread?

[stonewall337]

It doesn't show kills for ls/cs teams, only solo/ffa kills.

[atronic92]

http://forums.zybez.net/topic/1340287-drop-rate-ratios-from-the-adventure-log/page__hl__tlin25__fromsearch__1

End of thread?

 

Not really, since that person never measured how many of a monster was killed or the actual drop rates, just how many drops happened. In his conclusion he states that since Iron Dragons dropped 15 visages and Steels dropped only 3 visages, that Iron Dragons are better to kill for visages. But, his sample of players could have killed 50 times as many Iron Dragons as Steel Dragons. Without knowing how many monsters were killed, his data is only good for comparing drops within a monster, for example finding that a dragon med helm from an Abyssal Demon is 15 time as rare as a whip from an Abyssal Demon.

[wioneo]

http://forums.zybez.net/topic/1340287-drop-rate-ratios-from-the-adventure-log/page__hl__tlin25__fromsearch__1

End of thread?

 

Thank you for that link tha is an extremely good start! Sadly that guide only lists out ratios of drops in relation to each other(ie. 4.4 swords per hilt). I'm sure that that poster could tweak their code a bit to tally up the numbers for enumerated monsters.

 

To the person who mentioned the omission of ls kills, sadly that would cut back the sample size considerably, bu as seen on that other forum, solo kills clearly compensate for this. Also, if lootshared drops were included, the data would be inaccurate do to duplicates created by the same drop being recorded more than once on different logs.

 

If you have an account in that forum, could you please post a link to this topic? Maybe that author would be interested.

[Unknown_Warrior]

Still, that's about as good as it gets.

 

Only solo kills are counted - and even then only for a few monsters.

[JoeDaStudd]

It would be possible, now they combined the grouped kills it wouldn't be too bad at all as long as we can get enough people who regularly solo the bosses.

 

I shall have a tinker this afternoon-morning.

[zotto]

That was an amazing amount of whips in that list compared to other rare drops.

[Aslan]

The fact that only "boss" monsters kills are recorded into the log makes it very difficult if not impossible to determine how many other monsters a person has killed.That's as close as it gets to the amount of items introduced into the game each day. Tlin only used high level slayers/hp'ers due to the fact that they train slayer or monsterhunt a lot thus create a good place to start from.

[Tooneb]

nevermind, already stated above, somehow missed the post.

[wioneo]

The fact that only "boss" monsters kills are recorded into the log makes it very difficult if not impossible to determine how many other monsters a person has killed.That's as close as it gets to the amount of items introduced into the game each day. Tlin only used high level slayers/hp'ers due to the fact that they train slayer or monsterhunt a lot thus create a good place to start from.

 

That is not such a bad thing, finding the rates for gwd items, claws/lumps, d fulls/visages and any others that I forgot would still be worth the effort in my opinion.

[wioneo]

Does anyone know if any headway has been made on this issue? I just randomly remembered that this topic existed while thinking about something similar.

[manitstinks]

This could work but the adventure log never displays the world. The world is just as important as the amount of monsters killed

[nightshade53]

This could work but the adventure log never displays the world. The world is just as important as the amount of monsters killed

 

In what way? Obviously no one knows, but there is no reason why jagex would make it any thing other than each drop being independent..

[TheAncient]

There's already been someone who's done this, who unfortunately didn't record number of monsters killed but only drops.

 

Main finding was:

GWD -- 1 hilt : 4 god items (4 ss, 4 zs, 4 of any arma, 4 of any bandos gear)

Corp -- Ely rarest, divine second, both much rarer than spectral/arcane

[meb]

This could work but the adventure log never displays the world. The world is just as important as the amount of monsters killed

:wall:

[wioneo]

There's already been someone who's done this, who unfortunately didn't record number of monsters killed but only drops.

 

Main finding was:

GWD -- 1 hilt : 4 god items (4 ss, 4 zs, 4 of any arma, 4 of any bandos gear)

Corp -- Ely rarest, divine second, both much rarer than spectral/arcane

 

Yes, someone actually posted a link to that person's recordings earlier in the topic somewhere.

[Ned]

This could work but the adventure log never displays the world. The world is just as important as the amount of monsters killed

 

There's no quota in each world for drops, don't let RSOF fool you. There's no script that says "nope already gave them a hilt, can't give another for x hours." The roulette wheels don't change after getting a drop at all, and trust me this is 100% true.