Are Party Hats and Other Rares Going Extinct?

[Ouchy]

Like the title says. Are party hats going extinct? We have all seen those pointless vidoes of lvl 100's ec dropping phats and other rare items and wathcing them go into oblivion. Why do people do this. Are phats slowly dieing?

 

 

 

Whats happening

[Nero]

People drop party hats, they become more rare and valuable, leading to a bigger demand for them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They just keep growing and growing in demand, so no, they aren't going "extinct"

[Ginger_Warrior]

They'll never be extinct - for that to happen one of two things would have to happen. Every single person in the whole of RS would have to drop their phat, or Jagex would ban them. The latter is incrediably unlikely and unpopular, and that first option stands even less chance then the second. So in my opinion, phats becoming extinct is out of the question... unless Jagex goes bust and has to close down :anxious:

[Evil_Entity0]

People drop party hats, they become more rare and valuable, leading to a bigger demand for them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The ones who do that are possibly one of the stupidest and most foolish groups in RuneScape, then. I think that if they have enough money to buy a rare, or have a rare, they should know that the same objective of increasing rarity can be achieved simply by leaving it in their bank. Actually, they probably do just that, and the drop claims are lies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for the videos? While some of those people may be just plain morons, I feel that the vast majority know that if people think Party Hats are just disappearing, they will panic and assume there is a much smaller supply than there is in reality. Short and simple: those videos are price manipulations. As are the claims of "I'm so rich I alch rares to raise the prices". They just do that for their own benefit, their own gain.

[Ddrmaster7]

Take into account that some videos were taken during the RS2 beta phase. During this time, nothing happened to your character, so dropping rares, cracking crackers, or eating eggs did nothing when the alpha version was released.

[redserpent4]

nah they wont because there will always be one or two sitting around in someones bank who rarely plays. They will continue to get more and more rare though with individuals collecting alot at a time then usually getting banned for real world item trading.

[swampjedi]

A line with a positive y intercept and negative slope has to have an x intercept at some point, lim x -> inf.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, they'll eventually be all gone.

[Ddrmaster7]

A line with a positive y intercept and negative slope has to have an x intercept at some point, lim x -> inf.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, they'll eventually be all gone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's wrong. The graph of the number of rares isn't a line. As long as one person decides to hold a rare, whether it be in a retired bank or the hands an active user, rares won't completely die out.

[Giordano]

They're doing it in a private server. :roll:

[swampjedi]

x -> inf, DDR, and it's just an approximation.

[Wachtwoord]

 

A line with a positive y intercept and negative slope has to have an x intercept at some point, lim x -> inf.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, they'll eventually be all gone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's wrong. The graph of the number of rares isn't a line. As long as one person decides to hold a rare, whether it be in a retired bank or the hands an active user, rares won't completely die out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's obviously true, but what about totally out of the market? I mean, if that person never sells it, it's techincally out of the market.

[Einsteven]

 

A line with a positive y intercept and negative slope has to have an x intercept at some point, lim x -> inf.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, they'll eventually be all gone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's wrong. The graph of the number of rares isn't a line. As long as one person decides to hold a rare, whether it be in a retired bank or the hands an active user, rares won't completely die out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're right, its not a line, its an exponential curve. The amount of phats disappearing when it all first came out was probably pretty high, since some people thought it was useless piece of junk. Then, when people became smarter, less people dropped them. Others, began to see profit, and started banking/hording them, so there became less and less availability on the market. Then, more and more horders quit rs (still a very low amount) or got banned, and people started dropping and high alching them, and so even to this day, the y value is still decreasing. However, while the asymptote does exist in an exponential graph (at 0), it is not feasible to have 0.1 of a phat, so obviously, theres bound to be a time when these things disapear completely and become a legend. OR the jagex GM's kept one of them...

[Ddrmaster7]

 

 

A line with a positive y intercept and negative slope has to have an x intercept at some point, lim x -> inf.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, they'll eventually be all gone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's wrong. The graph of the number of rares isn't a line. As long as one person decides to hold a rare, whether it be in a retired bank or the hands an active user, rares won't completely die out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's obviously true, but what about totally out of the market? I mean, if that person never sells it, it's techincally out of the market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's dependant on the OP's definition of "extinct". It could mean gone completely, or out of the market.

[Bobbington]

I dont think rares will ever be totaly gone. Or atleast they will go oneday, but not while the game is still around.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However what is morelikely to happen is the market for people buying them vanishes! Yes that right, slowly there are becoming less and less rares (the videos are usually fake) most rares "disapear" when people slowly stop playing, not so much acidental alching, or banning.... and only idots die with rares!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basically there will come a point when there are not enough of the product to support a market.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The areas in world one and two will disapear as they are not fast moving enough, and so the price will flatten off very quickly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There will come a point when for long periods of time nobody is selling rares, and so when they come to sell, there are no buyers left as there are nobody looking for them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This lack in buyers will make the rares drop in price and this rapid drop will slowly start to bring the market back, but I dont see it being for long.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So whilst i think unless jagex take them out, rares will always be around, but the sellers and buyers will not.

[jaskkes]

There's none coming in. So they can only go out. The only thing that is unknown is the time.

[Adam007]

If you could really graph the rate that party hats would completely disappear from the game, it would probably go for one hundred years - they'd get passed down to family, etc. Since runescape won't last that long, only 5-10 years more, that won't ever happen in the game's lifespan. So it's not really an issue worth debating. Party hats are gradually disappearing, but it's on such a negligible scale compared to the entire supply of buyable party hats. Party hats disappearing from the game don't effect prices as much as other factors do.

[Alg]

by the time party hats are all gone, they will likely be redropped because if they're gone, nobody would remember them.

 

 

 

they will be gone soon enough, and when that day cones, it will likely lead to an economic crash similar to the great depression. only virtual.

 

 

 

also, price manipulation in runescape was against the rules last time i checked, as were private servers.

[Vladimir_Lenin54]

you also have to think about people who believe they won;t die, but then die with the party hat, thus losing it. and if the people who drop them keep dropping them, then eventually they will run out.

[Solidus_77]

by the time party hats are all gone, they will likely be redropped because if they're gone, nobody would remember them.

 

 

 

they will be gone soon enough, and when that day cones, it will likely lead to an economic crash similar to the great depression. only virtual.

 

 

 

also, price manipulation in runescape was against the rules last time i checked, as were private servers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know what you've been reading, but the great depression was not caused by rare artifacts (i.e, things that can only decrease in quantity and thus constantly increase in price) dissapearing in the world. It was simply a matter of people putting much faith into the stock market and having a GIGANTIC sell-off which ended up ruining people's lives. There were also many, many exterior factors that simply don't work the way runescape does.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There will be no economic crash since they will go slowly and gradually, as swampjedi said, it's like a line on a graph, it will meet the axis sometime (now, when those last, say 5 phats, are in the world the price will skyrocket) It will be very, VERY hard to buy them without already possessing a rare item which is annoying but not a crash in the economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is no way they will be reinserted either. Who would get them? How many would be released? Jagex will not do that now and there is no reason for them to do it in the futur.

[Hajuk]

A friend of mine had a theory, that Jagex made non mod accounts and sold more Phats to people in World 2. Thus, distributing more.

 

 

 

It makes sense but I'm not too sure thats what happens.

[Solidus_77]

A friend of mine had a theory, that Jagex made non mod accounts and sold more Phats to people in World 2. Thus, distributing more.

 

 

 

It makes sense but I'm not too sure thats what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crack theories ftw? Jagex would N-E-V-E-R do that, it messes with the value of the phats

[Prankster_King]

A line with a positive y intercept and negative slope has to have an x intercept at some point, lim x -> inf.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, they'll eventually be all gone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have to disagree with you. I'm sure that there will be someone out there that just locks a phat away in their account, and leaves it there as they retire. It could be there until the end of Runescape, but it will still be there nonetheless.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for the videos, even an amateur could alter the video so it looks like it disappears. They simply have to pause the recording, step up and pick up the phat, return to the exact former position, then resume recording. It's not real tricky to do.

[LeggoMyEggo]

Yes, definatily. If everyone made the little mistake of alching their party hat (My freind did that...) then yes, they definatily will one day, but not for a long while.

[GrimHams]

Theoretically its possible because everyone could end up dying/quitting so there would be no party hats in circulation but i highly doubt it would happen for a long time.

[Sk4terpunk90]

We need r2 or duke freedom here lol.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think if party hats where to vanish, santas would skyrocket.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also the more uncommon rares like disks of returning pumpkins and eggs might rise a lot due to there not being as many of them