The Math of Rare Drops

[qeltar]

A lot of people are quite annoyed about their bad luck trying to get a dragon visage, so I thought I'd shed some light on why it seems that some get rare drops easily while others take forever.

 

 

 

I think part of the problem with the new draconic visage is that people don't realize that even if something has a particular drop rate, it can take MUCH longer for the 'unlucky' people to get it.

 

 

 

I created a simulation of a rare drop to illustrate this. It computes how many tries it take to get a drop of a particular rarity -- in this case, I chose 1 in 2,000, which may be about right for the visage.

 

 

 

I ran the simulation 200 times to represent 200 Runescapers trying to get this drop.

 

 

 

Naturally, most people took roughly 2,000 tries to get the drop; 82 (41%) of them were between 1,000 and 3,000.

 

 

 

On the other hand, here's the best five figures, that is, how many tries it took the 'luckiest' 5 of the 200:

 

 

 

9

 

14

 

20

 

23

 

38

 

 

 

To these people, this rare drop would seem like it was really *easy*. They just got lucky.

 

 

 

On the other hand, here's what the 'unluckiest' 5 look like:

 

 

 

7,208

 

7,534

 

8,022

 

8,591

 

10,798

 

 

 

 

 

Now, to *these* people, the drop would seem 'impossible'. Consider if you were one of these five -- it would seem like everyone around had gotten this drop but you.

 

 

 

But it's all just the nature of randomness.

 

 

 

 

 

If you increase the sample size to 1,000 players, the numbers of course spread out more.

 

 

 

The luckiest 5:

 

 

 

1

 

1 (yes, two of them)

 

3

 

6

 

9

 

 

 

And the unluckiest 5:

 

 

 

10,438

 

10,730

 

10,798

 

11,553

 

12,647

 

 

 

Overall, there were 60 players who got the drop in under 100 kills; but a whopping 111 players who took more than double the average (over 4,000 kills).

[rareghoul1]

these are real results right? if they're fake there's no point to it.

[qeltar]

They are based on a random number simulation, not numbers I just made up myself, if that's what you mean.

[Nathan_Fabio]

They are fakew in the sense that these aren't what people in runescape actually did. But its real in the sense that it was tested on a top-model random simulation moduel (im assuming).

[Lunar_Drifter]

It's quiet easy to make a random number generator... no need for said "top-model random simulation module", although it does sound cool.

 

 

 

And thanks for shedding light on this. I've known that this is how it is, but never really had the patience to explain it.

 

 

 

~Lunar

[Walmart44]

Really you could have just said the odds were something like 1/2000. Maybe saved some trouble. Anyway I bet I'm one of those people that will have the really bad odds. O well.

[Nathan_Fabio]

It's quiet easy to make a random number generator... no need for said "top-model random simulation module", although it does sound cool.

 

 

 

~Lunar

 

 

 

Why do you think i said it? to sound smart? Of course i said it because its cool :thumbsup:

 

 

 

Da :lol:

[The_Dragon_Reborn]

Very interesting numbers there.

[Smapla]

:wall:

 

 

 

i'm about to go commit suicide at the kq, this is so annoying

[Nero]

It's quiet easy to make a random number generator... no need for said "top-model random simulation module", although it does sound cool.

 

 

:lol:

 

I'd hate to be the last 5 people

[Infernalz]

well its good to see there is math in something as talked about as rare drops. i mean, yes some people are 'lucky' and some ane 'unlucky', and otehrs are 'cheatingly lucky'(i mean the ring of wealth :P)

 

 

 

it does seem that some of the people were the luckiest, and others had just plain bad luck.

 

 

 

but i say there is no luck in a MMORPG, or any video game for that matter.

 

you cant influence anything in the game for happening, because no one can control the drops... well aside from the Admins :P

 

 

 

but in spite of that, i say that the drops are counted. no not as you did for counting the kills till the drop, but something... different :uhh:

 

 

 

such as: every spawn in the game, that has a rare drop, has a certian amount of kills till that monster that spawns in that spot drops the rare. and maby its higher for better drops, as the D chain and such, and less as... ohh... lets say something that everyone gets but nobody wants... humh... what could something like that be... huh i wonder... ok let me guess here and say...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

seeds

 

 

 

 

 

yes i coule be wrong all together, people could have luck, one way or the other, in a game. some people could sort of wish it that they get the drop, or any other way people have bad/good luck...

[Majin_Numark]

To the person above me:

 

 

 

So, basically what you are saying is that to each certain monster that spawns at a certain point has a set number of deaths before it drops a rare item?

 

 

 

I tend to think a little differently. I could see if you said that when the monster spawns it's particular drop is already set. But even that, I can't agree with. If that really were the case the Ring of Wealth would make no sence in the game. I know everyone has these conspiracy theories about Jagex and their drops, but I really doubt they would put an item in the game to help with drops if it, in actuality, served no purpose.

 

 

 

What I think happens is just that when a certain monster is killed by a certain person, there is a check for the Ring of Wealth, and then a drop randomly grabbed from a list. The ROW effects the list your drop is grabbed from.

 

 

 

I know Jagex has stated it works liks a roulette wheel, however I think of it more as a list, just with many more of the options to be grabbed would be say "XX coins" with only one being the "visage"; for example.

 

 

 

I could be way off, but that's more of the way I imagine it to be than anything else.

 

 

 

Just my two cents.

 

 

 

Oh, and by the way, I love your Bender sig. :)

[Infernalz]

To the person above me:

 

 

 

If that really were the case the Ring of Wealth would make no sence in the game. I know everyone has these conspiracy theories about Jagex and their drops, but I really doubt they would put an item in the game to help with drops if it, in actuality, served no purpose.

 

 

 

Oh, and by the way, I love your Bender sig. :)

 

 

 

for the ROW thing, like 3000 kills for the drop, with ROW will mean 2700 kills for it. as the ROW has it 10% more likely to get a rere drop... idk just a theory :P

 

 

 

and thx :D i like my bender sig too :P

[Majin_Numark]

Yeah, I know what you are saying... but what really stinks about drops being random is that while yes, there may be a 1 in 3000 (or 1 in 2700) chance of getting that drop, every monster you kill doesn't lower that second number or raise that first number.

 

 

 

Meaning, I kill the KBD and have a 1/3000 chance of getting *that* drop. After it spawns and I kill it, I once again have a 1/3000 chance for *that* drop. Just killing 3000 doesn't mean you are garunteed that drop in one of those 3000.

 

 

 

(Just using those numbers for example, of course.)

[Infernalz]

no, im just saying that the monster on that spot has to be killed 3000, or 2700(qith ROW) untill you get the drop. and when 1 of them is killed, it goes down 1 more untill it is dropped, then reset.

 

 

 

2700

 

2699

 

2698

 

etc.

 

and wiht ROW the total would be taken down by 10%.

 

 

 

again, its just a theory :P

 

 

 

and lets just leave it at that, im not saying you should stop posting on it, but other people need to post their theories/answers :P

[hatebringer]

well, you could take these numbers and basically compare it to anything that any creature drops (rare drops that is) like a challenge scroll. many people have looked for them, but only a few have ever gotten them.

 

All this percentage and stuff is not how i see it though. I usually find that when i am not looking for a rare drop, and just doing something, like slayer, i tend to get rarer drops than those who are doing it for the rare drops. This is just why i see personally. like i went to barrows for fun, and pulled out a v helm, but went there for profit, and started a dry streak.

[Platinum_Myr]

Hatebringer:

 

 

 

The reason for the above is because of the same thing as why toast SEEMS To take longer to toast if you watch it constantly.

 

 

 

The less you pay attention, the less time it SEEMS to take. The more you pay attention, the more your brain processes information, the longer it will SEEM to take.

 

 

 

It has nothing to do with actual rarity. I mean, how can the GAME know what your trying to do.

 

 

 

It just seems that way, because our brains make connections like that.

[deathmmaster]

Its completely random.

 

 

 

Unlucky people and Lucky people sometimes change

[Ts_Stormrage]

Ok, so I've killed 148 black dragons now (counting the hides :)), and prety fast too (with cannon and addy bolts, with a total of +180 range att bonus)...

 

 

 

You're saying that i'm still more then 10k kills away from the drop? Ok I can accept that too...

 

 

 

But the best drop I had was an adamant platebody. I also had a few mithril 2hs and baxes, but mostly it was junk like adamant throwing darts, or javelins, or sapphires, or coins, or the worst of them all: just the dhide and d bones...

 

 

 

Yes I wear ring of wealth...

 

 

 

So, anyone got an explanation..?

[atestarossa]

no, im just saying that the monster on that spot has to be killed 3000, or 2700(qith ROW) untill you get the drop. and when 1 of them is killed, it goes down 1 more untill it is dropped, then reset.

 

 

 

2700

 

2699

 

2698

 

etc.

 

and wiht ROW the total would be taken down by 10%.

 

 

 

again, its just a theory :P

 

 

 

and lets just leave it at that, im not saying you should stop posting on it, but other people need to post their theories/answers :P

 

 

 

 

 

just to say against this theory... if this was per person, then it would be easy to say against it... ever went to a place, and got a good drop on the first or second kill, like a clue, or a black mask... then it will say that the number was a long way from being "done"

 

 

 

if it's that monster or so, that every kill, also those others do, that counts... then it would be impossible to get a drop right after a system update... something we saw was possible now, when a tif'er got the dark bow at once...

 

 

 

so the point with something random, no matter what it is, is that you don't get better odds in winning in something when you loose... take roulette... if you have a 1/60 chance of getting the right number (don't know how many it is) then it doesn't give you a bigger chance each time you fail, because the odds "resets" so for every loss you make, then you still have the same 1/60 chance of winning

[JimmyMcNabb]

So what you're saying is......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...it's luck.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh and why cant americans put an S after math, its maths! mathS!

[phata_elise]

Ok, so I've killed 148 black dragons now (counting the hides :)), and prety fast too (with cannon and addy bolts, with a total of +180 range att bonus)...

 

 

 

You're saying that i'm still more then 10k kills away from the drop? Ok I can accept that too...

 

 

 

But the best drop I had was an adamant platebody. I also had a few mithril 2hs and baxes, but mostly it was junk like adamant throwing darts, or javelins, or sapphires, or coins, or the worst of them all: just the dhide and d bones...

 

 

 

Yes I wear ring of wealth...

 

 

 

So, anyone got an explanation..?

 

 

 

He is not saying that you're certainly more than 10k kills away from your drop, but that it is possibly 10k kills away. Every kill generates a new drop and the chances of getting a certain drop are influenced by the ROW. The odds of getting a certain item, combined with randomness determine your drop. A drop is never completely random (or luck), since each item has a specific chance of obtaining for a certain monster.

 

 

 

About your black dragon results: it's very likely that the lesser drops have a much larger chance of obtaining (or you can call it drop rate) than the better drops. So those seem to be pretty normal to me, perhaps a bit unlucky. ;)

[Guest]

 

Oh and why cant americans put an S after math, its maths! mathS!

 

 

 

Mathematics is a singular word, therefore its correct abbreviation in MATH. I know Maths is used in other countries, but here in the states it is Math. All words that end with 's' aren't plural, and this is one case.

[jimbob9999]

no, im just saying that the monster on that spot has to be killed 3000, or 2700(qith ROW) untill you get the drop. and when 1 of them is killed, it goes down 1 more untill it is dropped, then reset.

 

 

 

2700

 

2699

 

2698

 

etc.

 

and wiht ROW the total would be taken down by 10%.

 

 

 

again, its just a theory :P

 

 

 

and lets just leave it at that, im not saying you should stop posting on it, but other people need to post their theories/answers :P

 

 

 

 

 

just to say against this theory... if this was per person, then it would be easy to say against it... ever went to a place, and got a good drop on the first or second kill, like a clue, or a black mask... then it will say that the number was a long way from being "done"

 

 

 

if it's that monster or so, that every kill, also those others do, that counts... then it would be impossible to get a drop right after a system update... something we saw was possible now, when a tif'er got the dark bow at once...

 

 

 

so the point with something random, no matter what it is, is that you don't get better odds in winning in something when you loose... take roulette... if you have a 1/60 chance of getting the right number (don't know how many it is) then it doesn't give you a bigger chance each time you fail, because the odds "resets" so for every loss you make, then you still have the same 1/60 chance of winning

 

 

 

Unless they set the dark beasts to drop one after 10 kills after the update for the first few bows.

 

 

 

Imagine it's like working through a list, they could've started the update near the bottom of the list, not saying I believe this just saying that dark bow drops don't disprove this theory.

[Uula]

 

Unless they set the dark beasts to drop one after 10 kills after the update for the first few bows.

 

 

 

Imagine it's like working through a list, they could've started the update near the bottom of the list, not saying I believe this just saying that dark bow drops don't disprove this theory.

 

 

 

That's not what they did, because when 500 people are fighting the same monsters it's very probable that one of them will get the drop very quickly.