Drop rates of Dlegs and Visage?

[dannyb103]

If you're killing steel dragons for visage, I highly recommend NOT maging them (or ranging) as this requires you throwing money at the dragons. The obvious being said, drop rates are not solid fact. It is just a series of compiled tests - just like champion scrolls. Someone can get a champion scroll on their first kill, as there is always that possibility.

 

 

 

The code of the given NPC is just set to randomize the drop a little heavier on other potentials rather than on the visage. If it's like any other possibility variable setting in java (which I know a little bit about), it is most likely done by listing a list of item tags under given NPC code for when it is killed, and the more repetition of a certain item, the more possibility of a drop.

 

 

 

So a Steel Dragon might look like this:

 

 

 

addy arrow, addy arrow, clue scroll 3, blood rune, blood rune, rune javelin, coins, coins, coins, coins, ETC ETC ETC random lots of drop possibilities...., d legs, visage.

 

 

 

With just one possibility out of all of the listed items (and the repeats) to drop that item.

[Cinos]

Let's just say for this the visage drop rate is 1/1000 times.

 

 

 

1 kill 1/1000 chance

 

2 kills 2/2000 chance

 

 

 

Not

 

 

 

1 kills 1/1000

 

2 kills 2/1000

 

 

 

:

[Lets_3ekout]

Let's just say for this the visage drop rate is 1/1000 times.

 

 

 

1 kill 1/1000 chance

 

2 kills 2/2000 chance

 

 

 

Not

 

 

 

1 kills 1/1000

 

2 kills 2/1000

 

 

 

:

 

 

 

Not really, 2/2000 is the exact same thing as 1/1000, it's just not simplified. What is true is that that for the first kill you would have 1/10k and for the next kill you would STILL have 1/10k.

 

 

 

The chance of something occuring in random is not effected by ANY event in the past unless the event had a lasting effect on the odds of the item producing your result. A real life example to that would be rolling a die and for the next rolls using a weighted die. An example in RuneScape is code that we cannot see that increases our chance every kill. With all the math in the world you can't account for that unless you have one damn big amount of data. When we're dealing with chances of 1/1k-1/10k that is an ENOURMOUS amount of data required.

 

 

 

Finally, try flip a coin. Flip it until you get heads or tails twice in a row. Right there you have complete proof that each event is not connected to another. Although flipping heads two times a row is a chance of 1/4, they both consist of a 1/2 chance. Some of the logic being used here declares that after a toss of heads there is a 100% chance of tails.

[JoeDaStudd]

I still believe there are more variables in the drop rates then we'll ever know.

[1dhunter]

1: droprate of visage at steels is more like 1:2000. Not 1:150. Not 1:100000

 

2: Droprates aren't gonna help you at all. The drops have no impact at a drop next time so each time you kill a steel dragon your chance of getting a visage is 1:2000. It doesnt matter if its your first or your 10000000000000000s dragon.

 

3: A droprate means you'll get 1 visage in every 2000 kills ON AVERAGE!!!. If you kill an infinite amount of steel dragons you'll see your averaging 1 visage every 2000 kills exactly.

 

4: If your trying to mage steels for a visage you'll very likely end up spending enough money to buy 1 from the g.e.:P

[mmmcannibalism]

then ur change would be like 0.49...%, not really high i fear :lol:

 

 

 

sorry gorgoroth, false...

 

you make the same mistake as lots of pll (which is not ur fault, it a part of maths you only see in class when you chose maths as primary course)

 

also, because i say that you are wrong and I can use arguments for proving it, doest make me a brainless poster

 

Wait...what? First of all, math really is my weak point, but logic isnt. If i stand a 1/10 000 chance of getting a visage it meant that for every Dragon i kill i get on one tenth thousand of a chance. you need ten thousand thenth thousands to make ten thousant. Hope you managed to follow me through that.

 

Anyway that being said, if i kill 10k dragons i would have gained 10thousand tenthsthousands, in the end giving me 10thousand.

 

 

 

so that means 1/10k says i need to kill 10k to be sure of a dragon drop. now if thats not logic, puleaseee explain how you get to 100k kills?

 

 

 

your reasoning is incorrect.

 

 

 

each drop gives you a 1/10000 chance, but those ones dont just stack up.

 

 

 

simpler example of flipping a coin

 

 

 

the chance of getting heads on a coin flip is one half(lets ignore possible tiny weight problems), by your reasoning flipping a coin twice guarentees a result of heads, go flip a coin and you will see you can get two tails in a row.

 

 

 

Ill try to explain the formal math later but Im stretched for time.

[daniels911]

I remember there being a thread on the rsof to determin the drop rate of a visage.

 

Together they killed around 2million dragons and the drop rate was around 1/4500.

[darkdoug]

Results so far:

 

 

 

TOTAL KILL COUNT: 37,330

 

TOTAL VISAGE COUNT: 3

 

 

 

Iron Dragons: 13,716 kills, 0 visage

 

 

 

Steel Dragons: 2324 kills, 0 visage

 

 

 

Black Dragons: 15,014 kills, 2 visage

 

 

 

Mithril Dragons: 2042 kills, 0 visage

 

 

 

Skeletal Wyverns: 2344 kills, 0 visage

 

 

 

King Black Dragon: 1890 kills, 1 visage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Conclusions:

 

 

 

All estimated drop rates will be rounded to the nearest 500 for the denominator.

 

 

 

SO FAR,

 

 

 

King Black Dragon Drop Rate = 1/2000

 

 

 

Black Dragon Drop Rate = 1/7500

 

 

 

Iron Dragon Drop Rate = N/A

 

 

 

Steel Dragon Drop Rate = N/A

 

 

 

Mithril Dragon Drop Rate = N/A

 

 

 

Skeletal Wyvern Drop Rate = N/A

 

 

 

 

 

 

This si straight from runescape forums...

 

 

 

this is better then guessing...

 

 

 

doug

[Cinos]

Let's just say for this the visage drop rate is 1/1000 times.

 

 

 

1 kill 1/1000 chance

 

2 kills 2/2000 chance

 

 

 

Not

 

 

 

1 kills 1/1000

 

2 kills 2/1000

 

 

 

:

 

 

 

Not really, 2/2000 is the exact same thing as 1/1000, it's just not simplified. What is true is that that for the first kill you would have 1/10k and for the next kill you would STILL have 1/10k.

 

 

 

 

 

 

well yes really, you just confirmed what I said but simplified the fractions =D> . I was just putting it into terms of how many dragons are killed to make it simpler to understand.

[llamster]

Let's just say for this the visage drop rate is 1/1000 times.

 

 

 

1 kill 1/1000 chance

 

2 kills 2/2000 chance

 

 

 

Not

 

 

 

1 kills 1/1000

 

2 kills 2/1000

 

 

 

:

 

 

 

Wrong. If visage was 1/1000 then the chance of getting one after two kills is 2/1000, or 1/500.

[manitstinks]

I got one about 1k iron draogns killed

[homowz]

Let's just say for this the visage drop rate is 1/1000 times.

 

 

 

1 kill 1/1000 chance

 

2 kills 2/2000 chance

 

 

 

Not

 

 

 

1 kills 1/1000

 

2 kills 2/1000

 

 

 

:

 

 

 

Wrong. If visage was 1/1000 then the chance of getting one after two kills is 2/1000, or 1/500.

 

have you even read the posts?? that's exactly what i've been trying to explain: you have 1/1000 chance of getting a visage for every kill! if you want to calculate ur chances after a couple of kills use this method(when u say droprate is 1/1000) 1-(999/1000)^p (p is the amount of kills)

 

 

 

@d jay: i have already posted that my idea of a drop rate of 1/150 was wrong.

[llamster]

Let's just say for this the visage drop rate is 1/1000 times.

 

 

 

1 kill 1/1000 chance

 

2 kills 2/2000 chance

 

 

 

Not

 

 

 

1 kills 1/1000

 

2 kills 2/1000

 

 

 

:

 

 

 

Wrong. If visage was 1/1000 then the chance of getting one after two kills is 2/1000, or 1/500.

 

have you even read the posts?? that's exactly what i've been trying to explain: you have 1/1000 chance of getting a visage for every kill! if you want to calculate ur chances after a couple of kills use this method(when u say droprate is 1/1000) 1-(999/1000)^p (p is the amount of kills)

 

 

 

 

Yes, but what Cinos said was wrong. Chance after two kills is not 1/1000, that is clear.

[JoeDaStudd]

Yes, but what Cinos said was wrong. Chance after two kills is not 1/1000, that is clear.

 

The odds are always the same they never change. If what your saying is true this would be true:

 

(example drop rate 1 in 1000)

 

Kill - Chance

 

1 - 1:1000

 

2 - 1:500

 

10 - 1:100

 

100 - 1:10

 

1000 - 1:1

 

 

 

Yes if you kill 999 you should have a 100% chance of getting the drop on your next kill :roll: sound correct?

 

 

 

The chance remains the same as the game doesn't reduce the chances per kill.

 

(ie its doesn't go 1:10 -> 1:9 -> 1:8 -> 1:7 -> 1:6 -> 1:5 -> 1:4 -> 1:3 -> 1:2 -> 1:1).

 

 

 

The odds are just the odds, the don't change.

 

 

 

Look at the flipping a coins its either one or the other, that doesn't mean if you flip a heads the next one is a tails. Each time you flip the coins it can go either heads or tails.

 

Hell I've flipped a coin 10 times and got heads every time, but I should have gotten a tails after the first heads....

 

 

 

llamster the chance never changes.

[D Jay99]

Say the chance is 1/2000. That's 0.05% chance to get it, or a 99.95% chance you don't get a visage drop. After 2000 kills, there's a 0.9995^2000 chance you didn't get a visage drop, or 37%. So, a 63% chance you did get one. This means, if you kill 2k dragons, there's a 63% chance you get a visage (assuming the drop rate is 1/2000), but the chance to get a visage on your next kill is still 1/2000. Killing 10k dragons means you have a 99.3% chance to get a visage drop from one of those 10000 dragons.

 

 

 

This should end the discussion.

[Johannas]

I haven't read the whole thread, but i've killed over 2000 iron dragons (Most with a ROW) and i've never ever had a dragon drop.

 

(Not to mention the numerous amounts of steels, bronzes and black dragons!)

[homowz]

I haven't read the whole thread, but i've killed over 2000 iron dragons (Most with a ROW) and i've never ever had a dragon drop.

 

(Not to mention the numerous amounts of steels, bronzes and black dragons!)

 

thats whats called bad luck m8. also the drop rate of visage/drag items at irons is much lower than at steel...

[Phixcire]

only d drop ive had at metals was dragon spear never leg or skirt and fyi dont mage metals all i ever get is rune limbs b axe javs darts never enough invo space lol also love the uber spr str/attk pots

[Cptbaker08]

only d drop ive had at metals was dragon spear never leg or skirt and fyi dont mage metals all i ever get is rune limbs b axe javs darts never enough invo space lol also love the uber spr str/attk pots

 

That is why you bring alchs, and anything if you mage them you have more room then if you were to melee them. But i think rangers have the most as they dont need runes. Unless they alch which they should do.

[Joe1992b]

Visage drop logs have way too many varied results this could be for 2 reasons;

 

1) People are lieing about number of dragons killed

 

2) the variables that code for the visage drop is not based solely on the number of dragons killed, e.g it could be number of chaos runes by dragon in their last chaos rune drop divided by number of coins dropped in their last coin drop to equal the percentage chance of a visage drop in your next dragon kill, the variables used in the axample are unplausable and definatley incorrect but they are there to show a point,

 

 

 

i think the drop logs vary so much because of both factors

[Unknown_Warrior]

Let's just say for this the visage drop rate is 1/1000 times.

 

 

 

1 kill 1/1000 chance

 

2 kills 2/2000 chance

 

 

 

Not

 

 

 

1 kills 1/1000

 

2 kills 2/1000

 

 

 

:

 

 

 

Wrong. If visage was 1/1000 then the chance of getting one after two kills is 2/1000, or 1/500.

 

 

 

Wrong, if the droprate of visage was 1/1000, the chances of you obtaining one would be:

 

1 kill: 1-(999/1000)^1

 

2 kills: 1-(999/1000)^2

 

 

 

So a 0.1999% chance. Now this is close to 1/500, but that logic goes away fast. Point in case, after 1000 kills:

 

 

 

1000 kills: 1-(999/1000)^1000 = 0.632 or a 63.2% chance

 

 

 

 

 

Determing chances (and this applies to all drops in runescape) is:

 

 

 

1-[(A-1)/A]^B

 

 

 

Where A is the droprate, as in 1/A (if a droprate is 1/500, A is 500)

 

And B is the number of kills

 

It should give a number =< 1, and you have to multiply it by 100 to know the percentage.

 

 

 

And this isn't a crystal ball either. It solely decides what chance it is of having gotten a drop, not to decide what your next drop'll be. But that doesn't matter, if you want a 100% chance, you'll need to kill infinite monsters, which is impossible (or unless the droprate is 1/1).

[guywho]

I got d legs on my first ever bronze dragon task...only 30kills

[Death123141]

will you guys let this thread die already?

[ufosssssssss]

Damn then #-o i might as well cut my losses and head back to slaying the turoths to finish my slayer task :thumbsup: they've given me much more money than steel dragons.

 

I have roughly 1100 deaths left to cast slayer dart etc (forget the amount of minds) and yes all i have had after casting 1900 darts is 60 bloods, 59 rune javelins, 9 rune bolts, 21K (alched rune limbs), 5 soul runes, a tooth key half, and a tonne of charms #-o If i sell everything now, i can claw back 500K from the 1m i spent...... advice people? (take into account i am perhaps the unluckiest guy in existance)

 

Never give up. Never back down.

[Death123141]

Damn then #-o i might as well cut my losses and head back to slaying the turoths to finish my slayer task :thumbsup: they've given me much more money than steel dragons.

 

I have roughly 1100 deaths left to cast slayer dart etc (forget the amount of minds) and yes all i have had after casting 1900 darts is 60 bloods, 59 rune javelins, 9 rune bolts, 21K (alched rune limbs), 5 soul runes, a tooth key half, and a tonne of charms #-o If i sell everything now, i can claw back 500K from the 1m i spent...... advice people? (take into account i am perhaps the unluckiest guy in existance)

 

Never give up. Never back down.

 

can you please not bump this any more its a month old