Average Multiple Runes At Each Level

[Neglexis]

With the recent update to runecrafting, I'm sure you're interested in how many more essence you will be getting on average, making it easier for you to calculate average profit per hour and so on :)

 

So, if you have been doing some Runecrafting lately, please post your results you have gotten, following this template:

 

Level (experience)
Rune:
Average Double Rune Percentage:
Amount of tests:

 

With

• Level (experience): your current runecrafting level (your current experience)
  
• Rune: The type of rune you have been crafting
  
• Average Double Rune Percentage: this can be calculated by: Runes / Essence crafted
  
• Amount of Tests: To see how much your result will account for, when processing multiple results from other players,
  

 

So, in my example

 

Level: 78 (1,560,114)

Rune: Nature Rune

Average Double Rune Percentage: 38.7%

Amount of Tests: 4

 

For multiples that would theoretically require a level higher than 99, they don't count. So someone at 99 Rc will NOT see a percentage of his laws doubled!

 

Thanks alot in advance!

[langer]

Nice experiment, I'll have a go at it later today.

[BiJay]

This might be helpful:

 

[hide=A Slight Diversion]Principia Mathematica

 

The mathematics of Runecrafting

 

Introduction

 

This guide is intended to help readers to calculate levels required to craft (multiple) runes mathematically, instead of checking guides as is usually the case. Through this, not only can the levels required be obtained more quickly, they can also be obtained when offline. It is the expressed goal of this guide to awaken Runecrafters to the fact that Runecrafting level requirements are not randomly chosen as is perhaps often thought to be the case, and in so doing discover the underlying mathematics behind it.

 

Level to Craft 1 Rune

 

Suppose all the runes are numbered starting from 1, in a lowest-to-highest order (do not count astrals). Thus, air runes will be 1, minds 2, waters 3, et cetera. Now, let this number be denoted by n. The level required to craft 1 rune n per essence is obtained by the following:

 

 

Level to Craft Multiple Runes

 

Follow the aforementioned n notation. The level to craft x of rune n per essence is given by C(x-1) where C is the rune coefficient of rune n. The coefficient C for rune n is calculated as follows:

 

 

Thus, the level to craft x of rune n per essence is

 

 

List of Levels

 

Using the above formulae, we can compute the levels required. We obtain

 

 

*Using the formula, L is undefined. As L is the lowest level rune, it requires the lowest Runecrafting level to craft, i.e. 1.

**The formulae do not work for Astral runes as they were not part of the original runes. The levels for them thus cannot be mathematically derived.

***Theoretically, since levels obviously do not go beyond 99.

 

Conclusion

 

By assigning each rune a number n equal to the rank of its level from the bottom, we can calculate the level required to craft it and the level required to craft it a certain number of times per essence. The beauty and the importance of mathematics are thus clearly observed.[/hide]

 

Taken from chensj2 guide to training range/melee at ape atoll: http://forum.tip.it/topic/222890-340k-ranged-xp-and-140k-melee-xphr/

[sees_all1]

 

Level: 78 (1,560,114)

Rune: Nature Rune

Average Double Rune Percentage: 38.7%

Amount of Tests: 4

 

Each essence crafted is a *test*, with the outcome being yes, an extra was given, or no, an extra was not given.

 

It appears, however, from your data that the percentage that are extra are based solely on experience, and not levels.

What this means is that on average, from levels 44-91 in crafting nature runes, you can expect 1.5x.

Note that this average is based upon the ENTIRE amount of experience, as you are very likely to create doubles towards the end of the experience, and very unlikely to create doubles towards the beginning.

 

Besides, it seems the only thing we're interested in is the long run, and not "how many nature runes will i craft with these 10 essence at this level."

[Neglexis]

What this means is that on average, from levels 44-91 in crafting nature runes, you can expect 1.5x.

 

Not if we assume an exponential curve ... :)

 

Besides, it seems the only thing we're interested in is the long run, and not "how many nature runes will i craft with these 10 essence at this level."

 

How so? What if, for example, I have 10 hours that I can use to make money, and I would want to use the most profitable way, wouldn't I want to know how much runes I will get on average at my current level?

[meili]

Well at level 64 rc, with 43 ess I got anything from 46-61 nature runes, with 52-55 being most common. I just turned 64 rc so I shall have to see if there is a noticeable difference.

[Squisher_33]

well im debating one thing, for 70ish rc am i thinking deaths or nats

 

nats, around 55 per 42 ess, 300ish each, going to drop

 

deaths, around 46 per 42 ess, 420ish each going up, im leaning deaths

[meili]

I thought about deaths but I need to do like 5 quests before I can rc those. :( Bah, why do they force us to do quests? It's not like everyone loves doing 100s of quests.

[AceSpitball]

I thought about deaths but I need to do like 5 quests before I can rc those. :( Bah, why do they force us to do quests? It's not like everyone loves doing 100s of quests.

 

Because it's a reward you get for doing the quest. You don't have to love everything.

[NukeMarine]

Hmm, let's look at this from an experience chart perspective:

 

Level - Experience - % 44 to 91

 

44 RC - 55,649 - 00%

64 RC - 407,015 - 06%

78 RC - 1,629,200 - 27%

91 RC - 5,902,831 - 100%

 

And just Level

 

Level - % 44 to 91

44 RC - 00%

64 RC - 43%

78 RC - 70%

91 RC - 100%

 

Well, assuming the numbers the guys above gave are true, then neither experience nor level are being used to determine the chance for a multiple. Makes sense to use experience though.

 

Hey, Jagex could really apply this concept all across the board. Imagine a mining rock where the higher skill you get the greater your chances of getting higher rocks, so you constantly get experience but on occasion you get a cooler ore (higher you are, more often the occasion).

[rsp]

I wonder if he chance of getting extra runes is applicable to the ZMI altar too? Any experiences in that area?

[zotto]

I thought you never get extra runes at ZMI.

[Neglexis]

well im debating one thing, for 70ish rc am i thinking deaths or nats

 

nats, around 55 per 42 ess, 300ish each, going to drop

 

deaths, around 46 per 42 ess, 420ish each going up, im leaning deaths

 

So this means that you are getting some double deaths?...

[D Jay99]

Hmm, let's look at this from an experience chart perspective:

 

Level - Experience - % 44 to 91

 

44 RC - 55,649 - 00%

64 RC - 407,015 - 06%

78 RC - 1,629,200 - 27%

91 RC - 5,902,831 - 100%

 

And just Level

 

Level - % 44 to 91

44 RC - 00%

64 RC - 43%

78 RC - 70%

91 RC - 100%

 

Well, assuming the numbers the guys above gave are true, then neither experience nor level are being used to determine the chance for a multiple. Makes sense to use experience though.

 

Hey, Jagex could really apply this concept all across the board. Imagine a mining rock where the higher skill you get the greater your chances of getting higher rocks, so you constantly get experience but on occasion you get a cooler ore (higher you are, more often the occasion).

1+(0,5/(91-44))(x-44) = amount of natures per essence, where x is your level.

Level 60 = 1.17

Level 70 = 1.28

Level 80 = 1.38

Level 85 = 1.44

Level 90 = 1.49

 

Seems to match the figures provided so far pretty well. It would mean it's linear with your level, but only up to 1.5 natures/ess on average max before 91.

[Everyonedies]

Can anyone confirm that double deaths, double laws, triple cosmics, triple chaos or any other amounts over what we had had before do exist or not???????

[fallout]

Just tested at 93 runecrafting level - doesn't produce double deaths. Don't know about other runes, but I'm not gonna bother.

[Neglexis]

Can anyone confirm that double deaths, double laws, triple cosmics, triple chaos or any other amounts over what we had had before do exist or not???????

 

It is commonly believed that the previously non existant still don't work :)

[Will H]

Can anyone confirm that double deaths, double laws, triple cosmics, triple chaos or any other amounts over what we had had before do exist or not???????

 

It is commonly believed that the previously non existant still don't work :)

 

That's a pity, that would have given the skill a worthwhile 99 and be able to tick it off the list.

[sees_all1]

I just crafted 1k ess into air runes.

Of particular interest:

 

878,628 starting XP

888,628 ending XP

 

Level 71 throughout

 

7279 runes crated, for apprx. 28% chance to craft one extra.

 

 

 

 

Time to do some more analysis of those numbers.

I'll edit this once I have my numbers.

 

EDIT: it seems D Jay99's formula is plausible.

I'll a few more k's soon, then craft more once I get 72 runecrafting. That way I can tell if the different numbers are statistically significant.

[sees_all1]

892296 starting XP

897296 final XP

Lvl 71 throughout

 

7277 total air runes crafted.

 

3632 air runes crafted first half,

3645 air runes crafted second half.

 

 

 

 

Will level up and then I'll do more crafting.

[Vann]

[hide=NukeMarine]

Hmm, let's look at this from an experience chart perspective:

 

Level - Experience - % 44 to 91

 

44 RC - 55,649 - 00%

64 RC - 407,015 - 06%

78 RC - 1,629,200 - 27%

91 RC - 5,902,831 - 100%

 

And just Level

 

Level - % 44 to 91

44 RC - 00%

64 RC - 43%

78 RC - 70%

91 RC - 100%

 

Well, assuming the numbers the guys above gave are true, then neither experience nor level are being used to determine the chance for a multiple. Makes sense to use experience though.

 

Hey, Jagex could really apply this concept all across the board. Imagine a mining rock where the higher skill you get the greater your chances of getting higher rocks, so you constantly get experience but on occasion you get a cooler ore (higher you are, more often the occasion).

[/hide]

1+(0,5/(91-44))(x-44) = amount of natures per essence, where x is your level.

Level 60 = 1.17

Level 70 = 1.28

Level 80 = 1.38

Level 85 = 1.44

Level 90 = 1.49

 

Seems to match the figures provided so far pretty well. It would mean it's linear with your level, but only up to 1.5 natures/ess on average max before 91.

 

Sounds like a good calculation. I am currently getting 60 runecrafting and thieving for all 60+ so I will test this with the 2,416 natures I have left to craft. According to your formula I should get approximately 2,800 nature runes from my essence.

 

Formula for my level: 1+(0.5/(91-44))(59-44) and equals out to 1.15957 which rounded off is 1.16. So I should have a 16% chance of producing a multiple rune out of my essence.

 

I am going to do three "tests" with the amount of essence needed for level 60 runecrafting. Since I have 2,416 essence to craft I will do three groups of essence:

• 
   
  
• 1,000 then log total number of nature runes crafted
  
• 1,000 then log total number of nature runes crafted
  
• 416 then log total number of nature runes crafted
  

After doing these three "tests" I will find the percent of extra natures crafted from each essence for each "test" and post results here.

 

For anyone interested in testing D Jay's formula, do it and post here. Also, I have written out the formulas for the three member runes below nature runes (cosmic, chaos, and astral) so if you are more keen to craft them then do so and post your numbers.

 

[hide=Other Formulas]Formulas for double MEMBERS runes below nature:

(Keep in mind that if you are over the level to double them then you cannot test)

 

Will be listed as: Rune(Level to Double Normally): 1+(0.5/(y-t))(x-t)

Formula in text form: 1+(0.5/(double level-single level))(current level-single level)

 

• 
   
  
• y is level to double normally
  
• t is level to craft single runes
  
• x is YOUR current runecrafting level
  

Formulas:Where x is your current runecrafting level.

• 
   
  
• Cosmic(59): 1+(0.5/(59-27))(x-27)
  
• Chaos(74): 1+(0.5/(74-35))(x-35)
  
• Astral(82): 1+(0.5/(82-40))(x-40)
  

*Note: If you are above the level in the parentheses then you cannot test for that rune!

 

Estimated Runes Per Essence:

Cosmic:

Level 30 = 1.05

Level 40 = 1.20

Level 50 = 1.36

Level 58 = 1.48

 

Chaos:

Level 40 = 1.06

Level 50 = 1.19

Level 60 = 1.32

Level 70 = 1.45

Level 73 = 1.49

 

Astral:

Level 45 = 1.06

Level 55 = 1.18

Level 65 = 1.30

Level 75 = 1.42

Level 81 = 1.49[/hide]

*If someone would like to double check my numbers it would be great. I think they are correct, but its been a long day!

Peace,

Vann

[sees_all1]

Did another 1k Ess

 

900,911 starting XP (level 72)

7346 final air runes after 1k ess

3676 in the first 500

3670 in the second 500

910,911 ending XP (level 72)

 

~35% chance of crafting an extra there, which is 25% higher than before (~28% chance, +7 points)

Pretty sure its statistically significant. I'll do another 3-4k tests at 72.

[Vann]

[hide=First Post]With the recent update to runecrafting, I'm sure you're interested in how many more essence you will be getting on average, making it easier for you to calculate average profit per hour and so on :)

 

So, if you have been doing some Runecrafting lately, please post your results you have gotten, following this template:

 

Level (experience)

Rune:

Average Double Rune Percentage:

Amount of tests:

 

 

 

With

 

* Level (experience): your current runecrafting level (your current experience)

* Rune: The type of rune you have been crafting

* Average Double Rune Percentage: this can be calculated by: Runes / Essence crafted

* Amount of Tests: To see how much your result will account for, when processing multiple results from other players,

 

 

 

So, in my example

 

Level: 78 (1,560,114)

Rune: Nature Rune

Average Double Rune Percentage: 38.7%

Amount of Tests: 4

 

For multiples that would theoretically require a level higher than 99, they don't count. So someone at 99 Rc will NOT see a percentage of his laws doubled!

 

Thanks alot in advance![/hide]

 

If it is ok with you steiner, could people post in this format:

 

• 
   
  
• Level: 59 (252,002)
  
• Rune: Nature Rune
  
• Amount of essence crafted: 1,000
  
• Amount of runes made: 1,188
  

 

My friends are doing test runs (in 1k amounts) of each rune (cosmic, chaos, astral, nature)and I am inputting the data and getting ratios of essence used to runes made. Once I get a decent amount of data I will share my results. I am only collecting data for the four members runes that can double (cosmic, chaos, astral, nature).

 

I am doing this in MS Excel and letting it do the math for me.

 

So anyone interested in helping please do so! Please post results here or PM me on here. If you post in the format steiner used in the first post that is fine, but the format I am requesting just helps me put it in Excel easier.

 

peace,

Vann

 

P.S. steiner I'm not trying to take over your topic, just trying to get data. If you or D Jay would like to work with me on getting the formulas 99.999999% correct then I would enjoy that!

[Neglexis]

 

If it is ok with you steiner, could people post in this format:

 

• 
   
  
• Level: 59 (252,002)
  
• Rune: Nature Rune
  
• Amount of essence crafted: 1,000
  
• Amount of runes made: 1,188
  

 

My friends are doing test runs (in 1k amounts) of each rune (cosmic, chaos, astral, nature)and I am inputting the data and getting ratios of essence used to runes made. Once I get a decent amount of data I will share my results. I am only collecting data for the four members runes that can double (cosmic, chaos, astral, nature).

 

I am doing this in MS Excel and letting it do the math for me.

 

So anyone interested in helping please do so! Please post results here or PM me on here. If you post in the format steiner used in the first post that is fine, but the format I am requesting just helps me put it in Excel easier.

 

peace,

Vann

 

P.S. steiner I'm not trying to take over your topic, just trying to get data. If you or D Jay would like to work with me on getting the formulas 99.999999% correct then I would enjoy that!

 

Hey, I'm not taking this as an attempt to take over my topic ;)

I won't be having much free time on my hands the next few days anyway, so your help will be greatly appreciated and of course credited ;)

 

I'm hoping to do some tests myself in the next few days, but this all depends on how much time I can find!

 

Good luck crafting everyone ;)

[Vann]

Hey, I'm not taking this as an attempt to take over my topic ;)

I won't be having much free time on my hands the next few days anyway, so your help will be greatly appreciated and of course credited ;)

 

I'm hoping to do some tests myself in the next few days, but this all depends on how much time I can find!

 

Good luck crafting everyone

 

 

I have a little data for Natures and Astrals so far (tests done by me and friends) but need a lot more!!! and I need data for Cosmics and Chaos!

 

peace,

Vann