3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[Bladewing]

Don't be silly, it's not price manipulation lol. It's a broken GE that prevents trade at the true equilibrium.

[simran]

AS for sniping you can find some programs online that find a page difference within 1 minute.

 

Also would anyone be kind enough on these forums to help me upgrade my green mask to blue?

[tortilliachp]

AS for sniping you can find some programs online that find a page difference within 1 minute.

 

Also would anyone be kind enough on these forums to help me upgrade my green mask to blue?

 

by that time, it's too late for the best items. ge is camped, and is easy to camp while doing something else.

 

 

edit: now the geupdate site has an update within the next 22 hours. so it seems their formula isn't really revolutionary, it's a start though :P

[simran]

I meant it could be useful for the lower priced items like santas and masks.

[ilovecuttingyews]

Don't be silly, it's not price manipulation lol. It's a broken GE that prevents trade at the true equilibrium.

It is manipulators taking advantage of the broken system. If people didn't hoard items, we really wouldn't ever hit many problems.

[yuriqiu]

Don't be silly, it's not price manipulation lol. It's a broken GE that prevents trade at the true equilibrium.

It is manipulators taking advantage of the broken system. If people didn't hoard items, we really wouldn't ever hit many problems.

I own a Divine, I do not want to sell it, I use it to monster hunt and make money. Am I a hoarder? Just because the price on the GE is too low to convince any of the Divine owners to even remotely think about seling their shields on the GE does not mean that everyone who has more money than you is out to get you. If you want to blame anyone, blame Jagex for placing such irrational restrictions to trading.

[jettrider]

Don't be silly, it's not price manipulation lol. It's a broken GE that prevents trade at the true equilibrium.

It is manipulators taking advantage of the broken system. If people didn't hoard items, we really wouldn't ever hit many problems.

I own a Divine, I do not want to sell it, I use it to monster hunt and make money. Am I a hoarder? Just because the price on the GE is too low to convince any of the Divine owners to even remotely think about seling their shields on the GE does not mean that everyone who has more money than you is out to get you. If you want to blame anyone, blame Jagex for placing such irrational restrictions to trading.

 

He's talking about people buying as many of one rare as possible to keep high street prices on it, allowing them to trade them out in small chunks for enormous profits on rising items and even more desirable rares.

 

Not surprising, considering how the money saved in those rares cannot be converted into gold coins, and how even if it could, it would not fit in one stack.

 

People who own 1-2 divine/elysian spirit shields are nowhere close to the problem. In fact, I salute you for owning the item I most desire to have. The problem is in items that cannot be earned from drops or made from skills. People who buy rares for personal use are not to blame either. The problem lies in those who buy these items - especially unwearable ones - for the sole purpose of creating an artificial market. The inadequate GE legitimizes this artificial market and causes huge price rises in inaccessible items instead of useful rises in items that can be created or earned through drops. If more people stored money in skill-based and drop items, it would give new life to activities that produce those items and move the game forward instead of sideways into an artificial market not founded in any game content.

[Numismaster]

AS for sniping you can find some programs online that find a page difference within 1 minute.

 

Is that how these sites track GE updates, by checking when the GE beta page changes? That seems very unreliable to me since the in game price changes significantly earlier than on the GE beta page. I'm been at the GE trading and seen the prices change live yet the GE beta page didn't show those changes until 5-15 minutes later (and I'm not referring just to the graphs but the actual prices listed).

 

 

. . . Well I've only got maybe 10 updates or so tracked right now, and it's totally random. Though... if the 9PM-6PM Central Time is true, you can at least say "the GE cannot update for another X hours". But after that it would be a 21 hour window if completely random. :(

 

I don't believe that it's totally random. Short updates are nearly always immediately followed by long updates and vice-versa. This implies that the length of the previous update bears on the length of the next one. My theory is that Jagex has set a base time of 24 hours between updates with a variable time modifier that can lengthen or shorten this time. However this modifier would be governed so that the length between updates will oscillate around the 24 hour mark (this is supported but the fact that your observed average length between updates is 23.3 hours which is close to the 24 hours that I proposed). This would keep the time for most GE updates usually in a particular time slot rather than wandering throughout the day as it would if the updates were completely random from each other.

 

 

On that note, is it possible to record the exact time of a GE update in GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)? I believe that this is the time that Jagex runs on (in the UK). Perhaps we could then pinpoint the base time (and possibly an average time slot) for which the GE updates and use this with previous update lengths to forecast future updates. For example, if Jagex typically starts a Runescape day (when the GE updates) at noon GMT and the previous update was at 9 am GMT the day before, then perhaps today's update will occur within 24-30 hours to keep it within 3 hours of noon GMT (note that this is a hypothetical situation with no actual data yet to support it). But if the update occurred late in the day then the next one will be short to compensate and thus keep the system in equilibrium.

 

Knowing this information (if it is correct) will not allow us to completely determine the exact time for a future GE update. However with an ever increasing supply of data and analysis, perhaps we can reduce the size of our GE update time slots and increase the accuracy of their placement, thus leading to more accurate GE update forecasts. With better forecasts come better sniping, improved merchanting, or just wiser purchasing/liquidating decisions.

 

Well, that's my two cents. Or more like 200 cents :P (Can you tell I studied to be a meteorologist?)

[Bladewing]

Don't be silly, it's not price manipulation lol. It's a broken GE that prevents trade at the true equilibrium.

It is manipulators taking advantage of the broken system. If people didn't hoard items, we really wouldn't ever hit many problems.

I own a Divine, I do not want to sell it, I use it to monster hunt and make money. Am I a hoarder? Just because the price on the GE is too low to convince any of the Divine owners to even remotely think about seling their shields on the GE does not mean that everyone who has more money than you is out to get you. If you want to blame anyone, blame Jagex for placing such irrational restrictions to trading.

Well said. This is exactly what I think, but you're a hell of a lot less lazy than I am.

 

Is that how these sites track GE updates, by checking when the GE beta page changes? That seems very unreliable to me since the in game price changes significantly earlier than on the GE beta page. I'm been at the GE trading and seen the prices change live yet the GE beta page didn't show those changes until 5-15 minutes later (and I'm not referring just to the graphs but the actual prices listed).

Some items update first on the website. Like last night when I camped the GE, I updated all my offers, and the website still said that battle robes' change was 0, but wine had gone up.

 

Price updates are based partly on quantity of items traded. The more items being traded, the shorter the update.

[tortilliachp]

 

Price updates are based partly on quantity of items traded. The more items being traded, the shorter the update.

well yes, but all the items update in set ge updates. the "special updates" on particular items are only manual overrides as far as i know. so if an item updates in a ge update, that is based on quantity of items traded. but the whole ge updated, is probably based on times, that's what we need a formula for. anything else is graph examination, and forum checking :)

[Bladewing]

What I meant was that, after x items are traded on the GE, all the prices update. For example when the bonus xp weekend was announced, less items were being traded, and we noticed nearly 40 hour updates for a couple days.

[simran]

Well from personal experience, i've seen the GE page update at the same time as the runescape GE. Sometimes it updates later and sometimes before. I guess it all comes down to chance but id rather just have a simple program running on my computer to tell me so i can atleast try to get an item.

 

And also different items update on the GE page at different times so when you redirect the URL to RS make sure you include multiple different items on their database.

I noticed last night Santa got updated but masks didn't until a short while later.

[bedman]

What I meant was that, after x items are traded on the GE, all the prices update. For example when the bonus xp weekend was announced, less items were being traded, and we noticed nearly 40 hour updates for a couple days.

That's an interesting theory that would exlpain the complete irregularity of the GE updates.

[yuriqiu]

What I meant was that, after x items are traded on the GE, all the prices update. For example when the bonus xp weekend was announced, less items were being traded, and we noticed nearly 40 hour updates for a couple days.

Yeah, I heard this theory from a w2 camping friend of mine. She told me that Phats updates after 2 are sold on ge while regular items updates after 100 are sold. That would explain why Divine updates like once a year while Phats updates once a week.

 

P.S. Just to clarify - It means that at the regular time period of GE updates, it checks how many of those items are sold to decide if it should update or not. Kind of like an If then statement (not sure if I got that right, only took C# for 1 semester back in high school)

[bedman]

What I meant was that, after x items are traded on the GE, all the prices update. For example when the bonus xp weekend was announced, less items were being traded, and we noticed nearly 40 hour updates for a couple days.

Yeah, I heard this theory from a w2 camping friend of mine. She told me that Phats updates after 2 are sold on ge while regular items updates after 100 are sold. That would explain why Divine updates like once a year while Phats updates once a week.

 

P.S. Just to clarify - It means that at the regular time period of GE updates, it checks how many of those items are sold to decide if it should update or not. Kind of like an If then statement (not sure if I got that right, only took C# for 1 semester back in high school)

Bladewing wasn't talking about individual items, if I got this right. He means: If x items (let's say 100 million) are traded (can be ANY item), the GE will perform a GENERAL update. Then, like most people know, it will check individual items to see how much they have to rise/fall. If an individual item hasn't been traded enough (let's say 100 for normal items, like you suggested), it won't update.

[tortilliachp]

What I meant was that, after x items are traded on the GE, all the prices update. For example when the bonus xp weekend was announced, less items were being traded, and we noticed nearly 40 hour updates for a couple days.

Yeah, I heard this theory from a w2 camping friend of mine. She told me that Phats updates after 2 are sold on ge while regular items updates after 100 are sold. That would explain why Divine updates like once a year while Phats updates once a week.

 

P.S. Just to clarify - It means that at the regular time period of GE updates, it checks how many of those items are sold to decide if it should update or not. Kind of like an If then statement (not sure if I got that right, only took C# for 1 semester back in high school)

Bladewing wasn't talking about individual items, if I got this right. He means: If x items (let's say 100 million) are traded (can be ANY item), the GE will perform a GENERAL update. Then, like most people know, it will check individual items to see how much they have to rise/fall. If an individual item hasn't been traded enough (let's say 100 for normal items, like you suggested), it won't update.

 

well then a manipulation clan could trade millions of spirit shards back and forth, without risk, to manipulate updates happening more regularly when boosting the price of an item, then not doing anything as items crash. It could be tested relatively easily with a large merching cc.

 

body runes could also be used, as could fire runes. Probably a host of other items as well, but these three are so stable it'd be basically risk-free.

[wioneo]

Buy a couple crowns, onyxes, or h'weens, and trade them plus cash. Dispose of the junk however you do. Elysian doesn't have much street anymore at all.

 

i dont know how you get any of that crap either :(

 

I know elysian has lost almost all of it's street value, I really doubt it can go on much longer so why is it so hard to get one?

 

Could you be more specific than that? Managed to turn coins into 2 greens + blue and santa with about 10mish junk left over after about a week of dealing with an asston of crowns n whatnot, but I'd like to have a less biased opinion on what else I would need for the shield.

 

I've seen a lot of people going for pumpkin+cash... is that about right? and how does pumpkins' value convert to masks/santas?

 

Also, what would I need to eventually upgrade from ely to divine? Seems like trading around would take significantly longer, but it saves 20m+ over trying to snipe.

 

Mid thread bump :ohnoes:

[Unb34t4bl3]

Bladewing wasn't talking about individual items, if I got this right. He means: If x items (let's say 100 million) are traded (can be ANY item), the GE will perform a GENERAL update. Then, like most people know, it will check individual items to see how much they have to rise/fall. If an individual item hasn't been traded enough (let's say 100 for normal items, like you suggested), it won't update.

 

I've thought it about, but I'd say that's not the case when I've tracked a 7 hour 48 minutes update (shortest) to 36 hour 3 minutes (longest). That's just far too large a difference. I still think it's random but I'll wait until I collect a month or two worth of data before I conclude that.

 

Is that how these sites track GE updates, by checking when the GE beta page changes? That seems very unreliable to me since the in game price changes significantly earlier than on the GE beta page. I'm been at the GE trading and seen the prices change live yet the GE beta page didn't show those changes until 5-15 minutes later.

 

Depends on what you track. There are items that take up to 5 minutes to show a price change (partyhat for example may take that long), where as other very frequently traded smaller items may be updated almost instantly. My guess is that Jagex has items grouped by type, and each type gets updated, and then the GE index page gets updated. But, my tracker is quick enough to snipe items on the level of h'weens, but not quick enough for partyhats and divines. No matter how quick an online tracker is, you won't beat the campers at the GE. In the time it takes you to just teleport over the GE... you're too late.

[The_Gabe]

Bladewing wasn't talking about individual items, if I got this right. He means: If x items (let's say 100 million) are traded (can be ANY item), the GE will perform a GENERAL update. Then, like most people know, it will check individual items to see how much they have to rise/fall. If an individual item hasn't been traded enough (let's say 100 for normal items, like you suggested), it won't update.

 

I've thought it about, but I'd say that's not the case when I've tracked a 7 hour 48 minutes update (shortest) to 36 hour 3 minutes (longest). That's just far too large a difference. I still think it's random but I'll wait until I collect a month or two worth of data before I conclude that.

 

Is that how these sites track GE updates, by checking when the GE beta page changes? That seems very unreliable to me since the in game price changes significantly earlier than on the GE beta page. I'm been at the GE trading and seen the prices change live yet the GE beta page didn't show those changes until 5-15 minutes later.

 

Depends on what you track. There are items that take up to 5 minutes to show a price change (partyhat for example may take that long), where as other very frequently traded smaller items may be updated almost instantly. My guess is that Jagex has items grouped by type, and each type gets updated, and then the GE index page gets updated. But, my tracker is quick enough to snipe items on the level of h'weens, but not quick enough for partyhats and divines. No matter how quick an online tracker is, you won't beat the campers at the GE. In the time it takes you to just teleport over the GE... you're too late.

 

I put in an offer for yellow 1 hour after update and got it.

[anonymouse_]

I'm surprised crowns aren't crashing yet after the kingly glitch/dupe was leaked <_<

[tortilliachp]

I'm surprised crowns aren't crashing yet after the kingly glitch/dupe was leaked <_<

 

due to the April 4th behind the scenes post that Kingly imps are set to be rarer. that's my analysis of the scene anyway. I don't know how the dupe works, just heard it exists, and has yet to be fixed(?)

[totalpwnage]

I'm surprised crowns aren't crashing yet after the kingly glitch/dupe was leaked <_<

 

due to the April 4th behind the scenes post that Kingly imps are set to be rarer. that's my analysis of the scene anyway. I don't know how the dupe works, just heard it exists, and has yet to be fixed(?)

Jokes?

 

I just opened 2 kinglys with my friends for fun, no one got the royal crown but now if this is true we all just wasted 4m >.< and I wasted time trying to get stuff to buy a royal crown.

 

I won't believe it until I see proof. Though since Royal Crown only went up .2% maybe its crashing now?

 

Also the next Wergali Potion (unf) is definitely going to be the Body Body. Can only make like 3 or 4 per hour

[UserOnRS]

I'm surprised crowns aren't crashing yet after the kingly glitch/dupe was leaked <_<

 

due to the April 4th behind the scenes post that Kingly imps are set to be rarer. that's my analysis of the scene anyway. I don't know how the dupe works, just heard it exists, and has yet to be fixed(?)

Jokes?

 

I just opened 2 kinglys with my friends for fun, no one got the royal crown but now if this is true we all just wasted 4m >.< and I wasted time trying to get stuff to buy a royal crown.

 

I won't believe it until I see proof. Though since Royal Crown only went up .2% maybe its crashing now?

Apparently the "dupe" is just that multiple people can catch the same impling at the same time if you time it right, which has been around since implings came out I believe.

[atestarossa]

Yeah, I assumed it was this. Most people wouldn't bother with timing this up with someone else though. The chance of loosing the impling would be too big

[totalpwnage]

If it's just a glitch where you have to catch at the same time as someone else, then its neglectable. The time it will take to do that is an awful lot, and you'll need a lot of people searching in all the imp places to really do it efficiently. Sure with 4 people or something you could speed things up but there's still the problem that one person will succeed and the others will fail, and the timing, etc.

 

That whole thing is a glitch blown out of proportion. Though, doing it with friends could be nice as you're helping each other out.. its still just blown completely out of proportion. No crash to come imo.