25-September-2013 - Runescape Bonds

[Sy_Accursed]

 

 

 

 

I like how Jagex can rush to give people paragraphs are bullshit to players on the forums about bonds. But when it comes to a little information about delayed updates (Quest, BoL) its rare and usually on twitter.

How was Bol delayed? all they'd said previously was that it would be ending this week. And, I think the first notice we had about the Dwarf Quest being this week and not last week was because a J mod posted it in the future update forum.

 

I read on the forums its supposed to of been today, now its wednesday. :) BoL was only to last 70 days also

 

It was never 'supposed' to be anything.

 

When it launched on the 22nd of July we were told it was a 10 week event, but we were never given any solid end date.

On the basis of the weekly resets midnight 29th Sept made sense, as did some point on the 30th for a more exact 70 days so we naturally assumed the end would be somewhere around this point.

 

The ONLY official information we have EVER been given for bol ending was firstly last weeks BTS video meaning yes it would be this weeks game update and in the past day or 2 in we have been told Wednesday is the aim.

 

Ending later than we assumed does not constitute a delay, a delay is when an update is postponed from when we were officially informed to expect it.

 

Chill, Theres 2 updates mixed in one. The Dwarf was a delay and its obviously set back BoL with it. Wednesday is not a day they prefer to update on. But due to dwarf its likely pushed back to wednesday. Due to resets of weekly activities it were likely to be monday as the end.

 

But again, Jagex has not told us ANYTHING of BoL ending other than when it emerged it would be Wednesday.

So it hasn't been delayed at all, unless of course it does not arrive on Wednesday.

[God Of Lego]

 

 

 

 

Here's my problem:

 

So 1 bond = 6-8m gp = 14 days P2P/8Spins/150RC = 5$

Correct?

 

Ok, so removing the step of buying the bond/the worth of the bond in $ terms, then that means 6-8m gp = 14 days P2P/8spins/150RC.

 

So let's say I have 10$. 10$ would normally buy me 2 bonds, which I could then turn into a months membership, 16 spins, 300 RC, or 6-8m gp.

 

So now, let's say I decide to buy my gp illegally at, say .35$/m (which is generous, seeing as it can go as low as .20$/m) - my 10$ will give me a total of 28.57m.

So then I decide, hey let's use this 28.57m and buy 2 bonds for a membership. SO, then I spend 12-14m on buying 2 bonds and buy myself a membership. I then now have a month of P2P as well as about 14m leftover.

Then in addition to this, this entire update was Jagex stating that they can't ban everyone who RWT so they're just trying to move the market fro, insecure sources to secure sources (themselves). However, in doing so they just made it MORE beneficial for players to purchase the money "under the table" because it's cheaper.

 

Technically, JaGEX just decreased their membership worth from ~8$/month to 2.8$/month (if bought from unofficial sources).

The trouble with your last little conclusion there:

Jagex still gets the £3/$5/€4.25 for the bond regardless of where you got the gold so there is no reduction in value.

If no-one buys the bonds for cash no-one can buy them for gp.

 

 

Added that when I reedited my post - my apologies. Was still thinking through my entire point. Haha.

 

 

Yes you personal can buy membership cheaper now. But theres going to be someone who needs to be the middle man. LIkely some person who wants to buy gold and is scared to use GoldFamers so they use a bond and do it "Legit" Jagex still gets the cash though. But also do RWTs.

 

 

Well Yes, that is what I am saying. Somewhere on the line a bond is being purchased from JaGEX, and so JaGEX is getting their money's worth - the fact that you can buy P2P cheaper (more than half the price) from GoldFarmers, as a result of this update, almost seems like JaGEX is HELPING GoldFarmers. Consequently, I would not be very surprised if the prices of Bonds double or triple by the end of October.

Thankfully, then the 5$ for a Bond will be much more worth it - and thus discouraging RWT'ing at that point.

 

It opens more of a market for gold famers. I agree, but as for the price. I doubt it will tripple, maybe just bellow double and level off at 10m. At current prices I could get 60-70m for 10 bonds. Or I could us that amount of money getting 180m from gold famers. Either way. They gold farmers got a triple advantage.

[God Of Lego]

 

 

 

 

 

I like how Jagex can rush to give people paragraphs are bullshit to players on the forums about bonds. But when it comes to a little information about delayed updates (Quest, BoL) its rare and usually on twitter.

How was Bol delayed? all they'd said previously was that it would be ending this week. And, I think the first notice we had about the Dwarf Quest being this week and not last week was because a J mod posted it in the future update forum.

 

I read on the forums its supposed to of been today, now its wednesday. :) BoL was only to last 70 days also

 

It was never 'supposed' to be anything.

 

When it launched on the 22nd of July we were told it was a 10 week event, but we were never given any solid end date.

On the basis of the weekly resets midnight 29th Sept made sense, as did some point on the 30th for a more exact 70 days so we naturally assumed the end would be somewhere around this point.

 

The ONLY official information we have EVER been given for bol ending was firstly last weeks BTS video meaning yes it would be this weeks game update and in the past day or 2 in we have been told Wednesday is the aim.

 

Ending later than we assumed does not constitute a delay, a delay is when an update is postponed from when we were officially informed to expect it.

 

Chill, Theres 2 updates mixed in one. The Dwarf was a delay and its obviously set back BoL with it. Wednesday is not a day they prefer to update on. But due to dwarf its likely pushed back to wednesday. Due to resets of weekly activities it were likely to be monday as the end.

 

But again, Jagex has not told us ANYTHING of BoL ending other than when it emerged it would be Wednesday.

So it hasn't been delayed at all, unless of course it does not arrive on Wednesday.

 

Relax, Sure they have never announced an official date. But it doesn't mean internaly it wasn't delayed. Im pretty sure they'd of loved to be bang on the dot of 10 weeks. You can I dont know the full facts that happen behind them doors at cambridge. Its speculation.

[Kaida23]

 

 

Well Yes, that is what I am saying. Somewhere on the line a bond is being purchased from JaGEX, and so JaGEX is getting their money's worth - the fact that you can buy P2P cheaper (more than half the price) from GoldFarmers, as a result of this update, almost seems like JaGEX is HELPING GoldFarmers. Consequently, I would not be very surprised if the prices of Bonds double or triple by the end of October.

Thankfully, then the 5$ for a Bond will be much more worth it - and thus discouraging RWT'ing at that point.

 

It opens more of a market for gold famers. I agree, but as for the price. I doubt it will tripple, maybe just bellow double and level off at 10m. At current prices I could get 60-70m for 10 bonds. Or I could us that amount of money getting 180m from gold famers. Either way. They gold farmers got a triple advantage.

 

 

This could also be the first step before they make a big push against gold farmers like they've been doing against bots. I also think sales of the bonds will start to go down after a few weeks but demand for them in-game probably won't, which will result in the gp cost going up.

[Sy_Accursed]

 

 

 

 

 

 

I like how Jagex can rush to give people paragraphs are bullshit to players on the forums about bonds. But when it comes to a little information about delayed updates (Quest, BoL) its rare and usually on twitter.

How was Bol delayed? all they'd said previously was that it would be ending this week. And, I think the first notice we had about the Dwarf Quest being this week and not last week was because a J mod posted it in the future update forum.

 

I read on the forums its supposed to of been today, now its wednesday. :) BoL was only to last 70 days also

 

It was never 'supposed' to be anything.

 

When it launched on the 22nd of July we were told it was a 10 week event, but we were never given any solid end date.

On the basis of the weekly resets midnight 29th Sept made sense, as did some point on the 30th for a more exact 70 days so we naturally assumed the end would be somewhere around this point.

 

The ONLY official information we have EVER been given for bol ending was firstly last weeks BTS video meaning yes it would be this weeks game update and in the past day or 2 in we have been told Wednesday is the aim.

 

Ending later than we assumed does not constitute a delay, a delay is when an update is postponed from when we were officially informed to expect it.

 

Chill, Theres 2 updates mixed in one. The Dwarf was a delay and its obviously set back BoL with it. Wednesday is not a day they prefer to update on. But due to dwarf its likely pushed back to wednesday. Due to resets of weekly activities it were likely to be monday as the end.

 

But again, Jagex has not told us ANYTHING of BoL ending other than when it emerged it would be Wednesday.

So it hasn't been delayed at all, unless of course it does not arrive on Wednesday.

 

Relax, Sure they have never announced an official date. But it doesn't mean internaly it wasn't delayed. Im pretty sure they'd of loved to be bang on the dot of 10 weeks. You can I dont know the full facts that happen behind them doors at cambridge. Its speculation.

 

Sure we do not know anything behind closed doors the trouble arises is people call it 'delayed' and then give Jagex crap for it and make a massive drama about how everything is delayed and ruined when it is utterly un-needed and un-founded.

When in simple terms it was not delayed as we were never given an exact end date until we were told Wednesday.

[God Of Lego]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I like how Jagex can rush to give people paragraphs are bullshit to players on the forums about bonds. But when it comes to a little information about delayed updates (Quest, BoL) its rare and usually on twitter.

How was Bol delayed? all they'd said previously was that it would be ending this week. And, I think the first notice we had about the Dwarf Quest being this week and not last week was because a J mod posted it in the future update forum.

 

I read on the forums its supposed to of been today, now its wednesday. :) BoL was only to last 70 days also

 

It was never 'supposed' to be anything.

 

When it launched on the 22nd of July we were told it was a 10 week event, but we were never given any solid end date.

On the basis of the weekly resets midnight 29th Sept made sense, as did some point on the 30th for a more exact 70 days so we naturally assumed the end would be somewhere around this point.

 

The ONLY official information we have EVER been given for bol ending was firstly last weeks BTS video meaning yes it would be this weeks game update and in the past day or 2 in we have been told Wednesday is the aim.

 

Ending later than we assumed does not constitute a delay, a delay is when an update is postponed from when we were officially informed to expect it.

 

Chill, Theres 2 updates mixed in one. The Dwarf was a delay and its obviously set back BoL with it. Wednesday is not a day they prefer to update on. But due to dwarf its likely pushed back to wednesday. Due to resets of weekly activities it were likely to be monday as the end.

 

But again, Jagex has not told us ANYTHING of BoL ending other than when it emerged it would be Wednesday.

So it hasn't been delayed at all, unless of course it does not arrive on Wednesday.

 

Relax, Sure they have never announced an official date. But it doesn't mean internaly it wasn't delayed. Im pretty sure they'd of loved to be bang on the dot of 10 weeks. You can I dont know the full facts that happen behind them doors at cambridge. Its speculation.

 

Sure we do not know anything behind closed doors the trouble arises is people call it 'delayed' and then give Jagex crap for it and make a massive drama about how everything is delayed and ruined when it is utterly un-needed and un-founded.

When in simple terms it was not delayed as we were never given an exact end date until we were told Wednesday.

 

Part of the update was delayed though. It just happened to clash with BoL. I hardly give anyone crap. You just got cranky about a single word.

[ilovecuttingyews]

 

 

 

Well Yes, that is what I am saying. Somewhere on the line a bond is being purchased from JaGEX, and so JaGEX is getting their money's worth - the fact that you can buy P2P cheaper (more than half the price) from GoldFarmers, as a result of this update, almost seems like JaGEX is HELPING GoldFarmers. Consequently, I would not be very surprised if the prices of Bonds double or triple by the end of October.

Thankfully, then the 5$ for a Bond will be much more worth it - and thus discouraging RWT'ing at that point.

It opens more of a market for gold famers. I agree, but as for the price. I doubt it will tripple, maybe just bellow double and level off at 10m. At current prices I could get 60-70m for 10 bonds. Or I could us that amount of money getting 180m from gold famers. Either way. They gold farmers got a triple advantage.

 

This could also be the first step before they make a big push against gold farmers like they've been doing against bots. I also think sales of the bonds will start to go down after a few weeks but demand for them in-game probably won't, which will result in the gp cost going up.

Jagex has most definitely started a push against goldfarming. I'm ranked in a JMod FC and I have noticed a very significant increase in players entering to ask me why they were banned for goldfarming (they always claim innocence). It has gone from maybe 1 per week to no more than two hours between people. The only other time something like this has happened was right around the time botwatch started being rolled out everywhere.

[Randox]

Ah, that's music to my ears TradeMe. Makes sense, there is an easier alternative to push people toward, less chance to lose them as players. I have been hoping to see force from Jagex become a factor in all this, though on some level it's still disappointing that they were in a position where they obviously knew who the traders were, and either couldn't or wouldn't penalize them. I get the business aspect, but it's still an icky feeling.

 

I still wish they'd be a bit more onboard with the whole wealth nuking the traders though, seems like a more fitting punishment than a ban anyway. A 14 day ban can be waited out, much better if you just remove say, triple whatever they bought.

[Stev]

...though on some level it's still disappointing that they were in a position where they obviously knew who the traders were, and either couldn't or wouldn't penalize them.

(Assuming they do actually know 40-50% have RWTed and aren't just pulling figures out of their...) They knew they were going to start providing their own RWT. Why ban them when they have a chance to make money off of them?

 

I have noticed a very significant increase in players entering to ask me why they were banned for goldfarming (they always claim innocence).

Well, how many innocent people do you see claiming to be guilty? Alot of people had faith in Jagex's botwatch. Anyone who claimed to be unjustly banned was shamed and bashed for simply getting caught. That is.. Until a number of well-known legit players started to get banned, only to be later unbanned and reimbursed for their lost time. Then people started to really question it and finally started to realize how terrible/flawed of a system it was.

 

How many people will this take? I'm sure not all of them are guilty.

[Fallstar]

People who get falsely banned due to the system screwing up almost always get "Macro goldfarmer" as the reason OrTradeMe, in all likelihood a good portion of those players you've seen were falsely banned and have now received the sickly sweet apologies and free membership the others who were falsely banned have received.

[ilovecuttingyews]

I am aware that not all people banned for goldfarming are guilty so I always point those people in the right direction to get in contact with Jagex and hopefully sort it out. I just find it funny that I have the exact same conversation with every person who comes in the FC with this issue.

[God Of Lego]

Weird thing about Gold Farmers is they'll likely move on, they'll have more bots and more mules. It's the job for them. It's usualy inocent people who kick up a fuss a little but also coporate. I would like to see the actual evidence behind their research. In a court room Jagex would get pimp slapped by the judge if it were just to say 40-50% without backing it up. Never mind the answers they tend to give. Working around the question and answering something else.

[Randox]

What you actually want to see is the data and methodology (how the study was conducted, internal definitions, etc.). The world of misleading people with statistics is a world of endless opportunities, particularly given that the vast majority of the population does not understand how they work. They question is less about Jagex making up numbers and more about them meaning something other than you think. Making up a number makes no sense, because form a business perspective they had to have done this study internally anyway to see if this was a viable idea. They would have had some numbers already knocking around to use, so yeah, misleading is far more likely than false.

[God Of Lego]

What you actually want to see is the data and methodology (how the study was conducted, internal definitions, etc.). The world of misleading people with statistics is a world of endless opportunities, particularly given that the vast majority of the population does not understand how they work. They question is less about Jagex making up numbers and more about them meaning something other than you think. Making up a number makes no sense, because form a business perspective they had to have done this study internally anyway to see if this was a viable idea. They would have had some numbers already knocking around to use, so yeah, misleading is far more likely than false.

Thats exactly what I said. Just said better :'). I want to know how, and what indicates a RW Trade. Do bots count. Are they concidered seperate people and so on.

[Randox]

Sorry, apparently I skipped a sentence when I read your post.

 

It would be neat to see how they do it, but it's not exactly ground breaking stuff. No matter how you move the money, the nature of the transaction makes the traders stand out, though if you use enough accounts for final sale, they might not be found for some time until after the trade. I am also guessing they go for a bit more evidence, so they would want to link the sale accounts together to show that they all come from a single entity. Still, it's the money-in-money-out accounts that are the easiest to find in the end.

 

The farmers can hide their stockpile by keeping it extremely distributed, and ensuring that it moves faster than it can be tracked, thus keeping the money safe. The buyers would seem to be more protected by reluctance, or possibly just manpower, since the volume of accounts and trades would still take a long time to piece together. If they try to link a network together before going after the buyers, then you would also expect people to be hit in waves, since such a bust would lead to many accounts being found guilty at the same time.

 

I would expect they are doing something like that. Laborious and time consuming, but not particularly difficult, and very accurate.

[Archangelx]

One of the more interesting parts of the recent news post:

 

 

• Over 3,500 Bonds gifted to other players.
• Over 10,000 free-to-play players used Bonds to become members.
• Over 800 years of membership has been redeemed via Bonds.
• Over 3,000,000 RuneCoins have been redeemed via Bonds.
• Over 13 billion GP sunk into the Bonds re-trade tax.
• Almost 10% of ticket sold for RuneFest so far have been purchased using Bonds.

 

 

[Kimberly]

That's all I really wanted to know in regards to bonds - usage stats. Even if they are fudged, there's less reason for them to do so. I'm glad they're being bought and used, even if it has its own complications down the line. The ability to buy membership with in-game cash is infinitely useful.

[Stev]

Is 13B/week any good considering bots bring in 170B/day? O_o.

[Howlin0001]

In another words Jagex have made quite a bit from this update...

[ilovecuttingyews]

Is 13B/week any good considering bots bring in 170B/day? O_o.

That's just via the tax, which is 10% of re-traded bonds' value. The actual amount of GP 'bought' via bonds is far higher as the tax is only on second trades, meaning people who bought bonds for the sole purpose to sell is higher because they're not taxed.

 

 

 

A little math:

800 years = 292,000 days / 14 days = 20,857

3,000,000 runecoins / 160 = 18,750

No mention of SOF or Runefest claim numbers

= 39,607 bonds used (+SOF +RF) thus far. Quite a lot more than I expected.

[Fallstar]

Combined with SOF being allowed on div, I'd imagine a champagne bottle or two has been cracked open this week.

[primadog]

 

One of the more interesting parts of the recent news post:

 

 

• Over 3,500 Bonds gifted to other players.
• Over 10,000 free-to-play players used Bonds to become members.
• Over 800 years of membership has been redeemed via Bonds.
• Over 3,000,000 RuneCoins have been redeemed via Bonds.
• Over 13 billion GP sunk into the Bonds re-trade tax.
• Almost 10% of ticket sold for RuneFest so far have been purchased using Bonds.

 

 

 

 

• Over 800 years of membership has been redeemed via Bonds.

800 Years x 52 (week/year) / 2 (week/bond) = 20800 bonds redeemed for membership.

 

• Over 3,000,000 RuneCoins have been redeemed via Bonds.

3,000,000 / 160 (runecoins/bond) = 18750 bonds redeemed for runecoins.

 

 

So we know at least 40k bonds have been redeemed on the first week. The number of bonds bought is definitely higher, once you account for bonds (1) redeemed for runefest tickets, (2) spins, (3) unredeemed bonds in circulation. JaGeX probably sold about 60~80k bonds in the first week, that's £180k~250k in additional revenue. For comparison, JaGeX generated £53m in revenue for 2012.

 

More important than the straight number of bonds sold, though, is what the bonds are redeemed for. After all, bonds redeemed for membership for existing members simply changed whose paying for membership, that's not a new income for JaGeX at all. It might mean JaGeX gets paid earlier, but their overall income stays the same. Only the portion of membership bonds that converts free players to members actually translates to actual new revenue.

 

On the other hand, most bonds redeemed for runecoins/spins are effectively free money for JaGeX. Or rather, those are money that the players won't have otherwise spent without bonds. Having so much bonds traded for runecoins is probably a huge sigh of relief for JaGeX.

[God Of Lego]

By thier logic, Botwatch magically wiped out 80% of bots for a week.

 

At an average of each bond being resold at 6m a peice. This means people have bought 240b worth of wealth.

[chenw]

 

 

One of the more interesting parts of the recent news post:

 

 

• Over 3,500 Bonds gifted to other players.
• Over 10,000 free-to-play players used Bonds to become members.
• Over 800 years of membership has been redeemed via Bonds.
• Over 3,000,000 RuneCoins have been redeemed via Bonds.
• Over 13 billion GP sunk into the Bonds re-trade tax.
• Almost 10% of ticket sold for RuneFest so far have been purchased using Bonds.

 

 

 

 

• Over 800 years of membership has been redeemed via Bonds.

800 Years x 52 (week/year) / 2 (week/bond) = 20800 bonds redeemed for membership.

 

• Over 3,000,000 RuneCoins have been redeemed via Bonds.

3,000,000 / 160 (runecoins/bond) = 18750 bonds redeemed for runecoins.

 

 

So we know at least 40k bonds have been redeemed on the first week. The number of bonds bought is definitely higher, once you account for bonds (1) redeemed for runefest tickets, (2) spins, (3) unredeemed bonds in circulation. JaGeX probably sold about 60~80k bonds in the first week, that's £180k~250k in additional revenue. For comparison, JaGeX generated £53m in revenue for 2012.

 

More important than the straight number of bonds sold, though, is what the bonds are redeemed for. After all, bonds redeemed for membership for existing members simply changed whose paying for membership, that's not a new income for JaGeX at all. It might mean JaGeX gets paid earlier, but their overall income stays the same. Only the portion of membership bonds that converts free players to members actually translates to actual new revenue.

 

On the other hand, most bonds redeemed for runecoins/spins are effectively free money for JaGeX. Or rather, those are money that the players won't have otherwise spent without bonds. Having so much bonds traded for runecoins is probably a huge sigh of relief for JaGeX.

 

 

I'd say that its mostly due to the more favourable exchange rates of runecoins per bond (IMHO, 160 runecoins for 6m is quite a fair exchange exchange rate).

[V O R K]

*tear in eyecorner*

 

amg clanmembers bought the other one a ticket