Jagex' new rares? - 3A vs discontinued - PRICE UPDATE 7/2

[123Yourgone]

 

Jagex ALWAYS has an increased drop rate on the first day, this is why loads of people got dragon legs, dragon chains, ect on the first day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't post things as "it's a fact" when there's no REAL evidence for it. Loads of people got those items on the first day because loads of people are training against such new monsters when they are just added to the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Having said that, I want to add that I wouldn't be surprised if they actually did have higher drop rates for those items the first few days / weeks and then lowered it later on. I've seen too many people - who don't say such things quickly because they know it could just be bad luck - say to me that they suspect that drop rates were changed for various items at certain points in history and I've observed price changes in those items sometimes too.

 

 

 

My friend chris was at steel dragons within 5 minutes of them being added, he got 5 pairs of dragon legs within 2 hours.

 

 

 

Arch showed up about 20 minutes later and he got 3, then 2 other trwf members think it was elven and some one else got 2 pairs each.

 

 

 

I have spent 9 hours at steels without a leg drop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The day dustdevils where released there was a glitch where you could get multiple noted chains, i heard of about 7 people who got this, at the current drop rate of about 1 in 20k i dont think that would have been very likely.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the day 0ddball got his first whip drop rate was massive, he made billions.

 

 

 

Now people go 3 days without.

[Duke_Freedom]

That is no evidence, sorry.

[Ts_Stormrage]

Unfortunately, we can only estimate at certain things...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The only ACTUAL evidence you're going to get, is a Jmod saying something on forums...

[123Yourgone]

That is no evidence, sorry.

 

 

 

5 leg drops in 2 hours is enough evidence for me thats 5 in about 300 kills, on a creature with a current drop rate of about 1 in 2500.

[0wnag3d]

yea but isnt this good for all us clue doers..

[Duke_Freedom]

Unfortunately, we can only estimate at certain things...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, but estimating and basing numbers on just a couple of people and then practically calling it a fact are two different things.

[Ts_Stormrage]

yea but isnt this good for all us clue doers..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its a mixed blessing I suppose...

 

 

 

In one hand you have the massive ammounts of gp youre getting form all this...

 

 

 

But in the other you have the slim to none chance that you actually get that item...

[Kevin_]

There will come more pieces of 3rd age ingame, there wont be any new p hats (unless the loved creators of our game will decide to mess it up again). but then again more players come into the game then 3rd age items, i think they'll stick around that price for a while.

[speedy1135]

the 3rd age stuff is allready going downhill....

 

 

 

the mage top isn't worth 30 - 40 mil anymore, i got one 2 days ago and sold for 18mil :x

[ultrablue]

Well that's your loss then.

[r2-pleasent]

 

 

 

5 leg drops in 2 hours is enough evidence for me thats 5 in about 300 kills, on a creature with a current drop rate of about 1 in 2500.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excuse me, but can you take a second and review what you're saying? That's like me rolling a dice 300 times, getting 100 3's, and then using this data to conclude the dice is rigged towards getting a 3. A simple few friends who claim to have gotten good drops on the first day is not conclusive evidence by any means, so stop being so foolish.

[swampjedi]

 

 

 

 

5 leg drops in 2 hours is enough evidence for me thats 5 in about 300 kills, on a creature with a current drop rate of about 1 in 2500.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excuse me, but can you take a second and review what you're saying? That's like me rolling a dice 300 times, getting 100 3's, and then using this data to conclude the dice is rigged towards getting a 3. A simple few friends who claim to have gotten good drops on the first day is not conclusive evidence by any means, so stop being so foolish.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure, but that might be statistically significant r2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[milemaster55]

like every nondiscontinued items, theyll go downhill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ahhh, remember when ranger sets were 4 mil? what are they now, 5.7?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WOW!, they are going downhill -.-

[swampjedi]

I'd modify that to include "Barring drop rate and stat changes...".

[r2-pleasent]

 

 

 

 

 

5 leg drops in 2 hours is enough evidence for me thats 5 in about 300 kills, on a creature with a current drop rate of about 1 in 2500.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excuse me, but can you take a second and review what you're saying? That's like me rolling a dice 300 times, getting 100 3's, and then using this data to conclude the dice is rigged towards getting a 3. A simple few friends who claim to have gotten good drops on the first day is not conclusive evidence by any means, so stop being so foolish.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure, but that might be statistically significant r2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm just saying that ~300 trials is not going to show conclusive evidence for drop rates as a whole.

[oblivion2006]

 

like every nondiscontinued items, theyll go downhill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ahhh, remember when ranger sets were 4 mil? what are they now, 5.7?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WOW!, they are going downhill -.-

 

 

 

Every time they release new TT items, the older items seem to become rarer as there are more items you can possibly get. If their drop rate stays the same then you won't be getting them as often since there's more items you can get. Take into account their high demand and you have a price increase. It stops rising at a certain point though.

[Zierro]

I think you're on to something. 3rd Age might be a way from stopping Rares from going up too high for now. Looks like it worked too... I haven't seen Discontinued Items' prices go up ever since.

[Shazarabbit]

For the millionth time when will people realize prices are set by the PLAYERS and not Jagex. Players are the ones who make the prices, and make them go higher and lower. At the moment it is demand versus supply thats it. Give it a few months and they will drop a bit more.

[Kinslayer777]

But a valid point here is that if the number of wealthy players increases at the same rate as 3rd armor (really slow), then effectively they're not going down...

[sohkmj1]

3rd age= less than 1k sets circulating

 

 

 

the number will increase in the year

 

 

 

dragon= endless amount going around

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

yep, 3rd age will drop, just like dragon when it was just released

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

now, will some1 post a pic of full 3rd age melee?

[TheAncient]

Personally I don't see 3rd sets falling down to <50M, unless Jagex releases an update. Why? The demand is pretty high (I'd love to have 3rd ranger), supply will not increase dramatically (TT's haven't and probably will not become as integral a part of the game as Barrows/Abby Demons in terms of moneymaking). Their prices will most likely dip down to 50% of their max/stay the same throughout the next year (possibly even rise, as people discover how TRULY rare it is). Over next year, however, I REALLY do not see 3rd sets halting discontinued price growth; the novelty of 3rd age will wear off.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How has the TIP community become so ignorant :-k

[Ts_Stormrage]

Not halting, maybe slowing them down a bit, but that was not the comparison I orginally made.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was saying that the ammount of 3rd age items per active subscriber will eventually decline, just like discontinued items...

[Ts_Stormrage]

First price updates are in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age kiteshield 90,000,000gp - 140,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age platebody 90,000,000gp - 120,000,000gp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will keep the first post updated with the new prices, but the fact that these items have nearly doubled in value, makes the things that were estimated way off...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If these items will continue to rise in value like this, then anyone getting such an item from a clue scroll will not sell it easily. Just because of that, the value will only go up even faster!!!

[Erk02]

They are only expensive as they are new.

No, you just haven't read any of this thread. Please do. Well, I really can't comment on this, since I've never had more than 1mil cash.

[oddfaery2]

 

It's a month old and still readily available as hundreds or thousands of clues are done every day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The prices are due to the newness, and once it becomes more and more common, the prices will fall to something more reasonable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just look at whips, gilded armour, trimmed skirts, and barrows sets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All in due time... all in due time

 

 

 

Your looking at the wrong items, they are all pretty common, try look at robin hood hat and ranger boots, they have been rising for over a year, 3rd age is a LOT rarer then they are.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For somebody who has played as long as you have, you should know these prices have not been CONTINUALLY rising. The only reason they have risen over their previous FALLEN prices, back when a set was MAYBE 2-2.5m, is because they have been in shorter supply since the new clue rewards were released, and the demand is CURRENTLY outweighing the supply.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 set of clue items that are an exception to the trend is hardly a counter-argument