Jagex' new rares? - 3A vs discontinued - PRICE UPDATE 7/2

[sylvawarrior]

I was thinking of buying the melee set when first came out and this guy ot full set for 24M

[lobsta]

The solid point is that eventually rares will cost more than even 3rd age armor... it's gonna happen! As the days go by the rares cost more for they are discontinued. The 3rd age armor will stay mostly the same.. might go up and down a few times but around the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amen to that brother.

[Dazzuh]

Yes, they are still very rare, i've only actually seen one 3rd age item in-game but they are not discontinued so won't stay 'rare' for long.

[malo2]

Malo2:

 

 

 

My argument was that you used examples of high priced items at first who later stabilized.

 

 

 

This stabilization of the items you mentioned, or atleast the decline in the price you pay for these items, were visible within the first week (btw, whips went for much much higher when they first came out, read the whole thread next time hmk?).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's been 42 days... 6 weeks... and the prices have only gone up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You acuse me of price manipulation with making such a thread about the price developments, and then you blame the merchanters for hoarding the 3rd age stuff, as to drive the prices up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Get your head out of your (fill in the blank), and think before you are putting your fingers to your keyboard.

 

 

 

If I was to guess you are just a little kid who is seeing the chances ever owning such an item slipping through his fingers and lashing out at the nearest possible thing to vent his frustration...

how about you learn to read before you make another post?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't understand how you would know the prices of something nobody is even selling?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These prices guides are always very inaccurate, and they change the economy so easily because so many people rely on them without realizing this. The person who set those prices probably spent 2 mins in fally and saw someone offering a phat and then put the price on the guide right away. 3rd age really isn't worth that much, but the fact that these price guides and people like you are claiming that these are the prices is what is changing what people think about these armor so easily, even though nobody is really selling any of this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is pure price manipulation whether or not its your actual intent, and you aren't helping anybody.

There's no reason to flame me just because you don't understand a simple point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let me make it clear and simple: Nobody will know the prices of this amour until a good amount of it gets into the game, you cant know the price of something nobody is selling! right now they're still stabilizing! Is there anything you do not understand?

[Ts_Stormrage]

I understand that you think it is impossible to know a certain price when an item is in it's stabalizing period.

 

 

 

Yes you claim for several items the price during their own stabalizing period, so how do you explain that?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ever heard of price estimates? OMG I THINK THAT IS WHAT I DID!

[malo2]

I understand that you think it is impossible to know a certain price when an item is in it's stabalizing period.

 

 

 

Yes you claim for several items the price during their own stabalizing period, so how do you explain that?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ever heard of price estimates? OMG I THINK THAT IS WHAT I DID!

no, actually you took that off a price guide made by somebody who happened to hear of a person or two offering a phat for the items, so he decided to base the prices by the values of phats, so now everybody is reading that price guide and you make a thread about it advertising these prices thus more people assume that this is the value of items even though they're still stabilizing, so you're advertising inaccurate prices which is manipulation [run on/]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like I said before this may not be your intent, but thats what it is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and I'm not saying this because I'm some kid thats lost the chance of buying one of these items, I'm just annoyed by people like you advertising inaccurate values and slowing down the stabilization, because yes im planning to buy the shield when I save up enough and the values become more realistic.

[tskolar]

Actually Malo the "new" price guide he used is quite accurate. Something we cant say for the "old" one. Prices for 3rd age pieces has been pretty stable for several weeks now and they havent gone up as storm suggests. To pinpoint what the value of these items is naturally impossible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The only 3rd items likely to rise further are the kite, ammy and coif. Everything else is as useless as full lederhosen.

[Ts_Stormrage]

3rd age amulet has been updated (it has now +15 mage attack and +10 mage defense).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It too will rise in price.

[illidan_98]

3rd age mage hat is now +8, better than its counterparts (ahrim hood, farseer helm, infinity hat) by 2, makin it the best magic hat in the slot

[TiKRuy]

nooooo that kite is so too much :(((

[Ts_Stormrage]

Go kill hellhounds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm planning on getting myself lvl 70 agility sometime soon, so I can access hellhounds quickly.

[Wachtwoord]

I was thinking about another thing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There has been said the changes of getting a 3rd age armour is 0,01 % (1/10.000). Is that for getting a third age item or is it 0,01% for each of those items.

 

 

 

I hope you know what I mean

[Benihime]

i was looking to buy full 3rd age melee set but is very hard to find

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

saw someone selling legs for a/w 35M

 

 

 

i eventually bought it and was trying to find the rest when someone was offering santa, 25M, and a fury for the legs, wasn't planning on merching but oh well, free 18M for me

[yomom1919]

They're obviously going to go up until people realize how rare they actually are, and then they will stabalize.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, since there are so few, it will take a long time (6 months +, I predict) to get anywhere near stable. Right now prices are just pecking in the dark

[Ts_Stormrage]

Which is one of the reasons why it is so costly...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People can basicly ask anything they want for it...

[yomom1919]

Which is one of the reasons why it is so costly...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People can basicly ask anything they want for it...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was pointing out something more important though. You said they behaved like rares. Rares are not just costly, the most distinct feature of a rare is its unstable price.

[Ts_Stormrage]

The prices of these things arent even predictable, let alone stable...

[sjonno]

like every nondiscontinued items, theyll go downhill.

did u know that whut ur talking about doesnt makes sence? i mean the robin hoot hat and ranger boots are raising to (cleu items hard) 3rd age stuff is (cleu items very hard) so they could raise to :uhh:

[aznmidget448]

I think Jagex is changing the drop rate so that they can slowly bring down the rares from the Runescape economy without too many people noticing, but that is just what I think.

[Saru Inc]

Oooh, can you imagine getting third age Kite and Plate in same scroll?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party Hats galore.

[Ts_Stormrage]

It IS possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But if the droprate for 1 item is 1 in 10k, then the chance of getting 2 items in 1 clue, is 1 in 100m!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That translates into 0,000001%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So maybe somewhere within 20 years from now :P

[quitthegame]

The thing that is the most amusing about this thread is the people who quote the law of supply and demand, to "prove" that discontinued items will always overtake the value of current items. Sure, the supply of discontinued items is always slowly decreasing. The demand has historically seemed to trend upwards, which is most commonly attributed to inflation. But what happens if we really examine how demand could behave in the future, compare it to historically similar situations? Like speculative bubbles in real estate and art?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In fact, I see people in this thread comparing party hats to paintings by famous artists, and I will rebut it as a general indication of how such analogies are flawed. That comparison is laughable for two reasons: 1. Paintings by famous artists are unique, irreplaceable, masterpieces by a genius. Party hats are all the same, completely lacking in any inherent merit, created as a throwaway by someone who's greatest work is of no lasting consequence. Party hats are valued for being valuable, nothing more. 2. Paintings by famous artists are historically liable to sudden and relatively permanent declines in value. That comparison, bad as it is, even if granted truth only proves the opposite of what it's meant to prove.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fact is that if people wake up tomorrow and decide that party hats and other discontinued items aren't worth pursuing, as there is no real basis for their value save for the lack of a suitable alternative for displaying wealth, then they would lose all of their value overnight. I'm sure many of you are laughing while you read this, confident that rares will go up in value forever-- just like everyone else who had faith in the permanance of the billions of speculative bubbles scattered thickly throughout history. But the positive feedback cycle that is driving their value up works even better in reverse, which is what most of those people who believed in prior bubbles discovered long ago.

[Zachcorp]

I believe uncommon is an excellent term for a treasure trail item in transit to becoming more common

[Duke_Freedom]

Like speculative bubbles in real estate and art?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real estate is not limited and decreasing, but rather slowly increasing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That comparison is laughable for two reasons: 1. Paintings by famous artists are unique, irreplaceable, masterpieces by a genius. Party hats are all the same, completely lacking in any inherent merit, created as a throwaway by someone who's greatest work is of no lasting consequence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rares and famous paintings are comparable because both items have no real practical use. I could also say that famous paintings aren't really "unique" either - there are thousands of them around - but ok perhaps not a very good comparison as those aren't 100% identical. If you want a better analogy of rares, then the best I can find these days is a US golden coin from 1933.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Furthermore you say paintings by famous artists are "masterpieces by a genius" and I would like to point out that's merely an opinion and thus not of any relevance at all. To me, a lot of so-called famous paintings could just as well be thrown in an open fire and thus they are of equal (or even less) "value" to me as RuneScape's rares are.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party hats are valued for being valuable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Famous paintings too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fact is that if people wake up tomorrow and decide that party hats and other discontinued items aren't worth pursuing, as there is no real basis for their value save for the lack of a suitable alternative for displaying wealth, then they would lose all of their value overnight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fact is that if everyone decided tomorrow that going to the mcdonalds is bad for your health and thus everyone stops going there, the mcdonalds company would go bankrupt. Same goes for coca-cola. And if everyone suddenly decided not to use google anymore from now on, the 150bil market cap of the company will be gone faster than you wrote your post.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, you're not proving anything here, except for stating a situation that won't happen. Yes, it's all based on trust and expectation, but like I just pointed out, a lot in the economic world is based on trust and expectation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sure many of you are laughing while you read this, confident that rares will go up in value forever

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not "confident" that rares will go up in value forever. I only always state that rares can only go up on the long-term providing that the market conditions don't change. The major market conditions that influence the prices of rares on the long-term are population growth, inflation and the lack of expensive alternatives for people to spend their cash on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, I have discussed and mentioned 'disaster' like scenario's for rares before, like here for example. Still, I do not believe we're at that point - yet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the other hand, the population growth, expressed as a rate, has been dropping slightly. Jagex has also been implementing a few (small) anti-inflation measurements (construction) and offered good and expensive options for people to spend their cash on (construction, third age armour). All of this does prevent rares from going up further in price. If Jagex continues with that, they could keep the rares prices quite stable like they have been for quite some time now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now I want to know from you, how long have you already been sceptic about the prices of rares?

[quitthegame]

 

Like speculative bubbles in real estate and art?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real estate is not limited and decreasing, but rather slowly increasing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would say slowly decreasing, not slowly increasing... haven't you heard of desertification, contamination, global warming = rising oceans, etc.? Plus, the world population has grown extremely quickly over the past 200 years, so analysis of historical trends in real estate necessarily implies analysis of rapidly increasing per capita scarcity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That comparison is laughable for two reasons: 1. Paintings by famous artists are unique, irreplaceable, masterpieces by a genius. Party hats are all the same, completely lacking in any inherent merit, created as a throwaway by someone who's greatest work is of no lasting consequence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rares and famous paintings are comparable because both items have no real practical use. I could also say that famous paintings aren't really "unique" either - there are thousands of them around - but ok perhaps not a very good comparison as those aren't 100% identical. If you want a better analogy of rares, then the best I can find these days is a US golden coin from 1933.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Furthermore you say paintings by famous artists are "masterpieces by a genius" and I would like to point out that's merely an opinion and thus not of any relevance at all. To me, a lot of so-called famous paintings could just as well be thrown in an open fire and thus they are of equal (or even less) "value" to me as RuneScape's rares are.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Opinions aren't of any relevance at all? You are aware that you have uttered a fairly comical oxymoron there right? I could embark on a lengthy defense of artistic merit, but I'm going to leave that one alone, just imagine I made it ;) . I will say, that your declarations that famous paintings are valueless to you are missing the point. You could find someone for any given thing who finds no value in it. But I don't think there is anyone who believes that there is great inherent value in the simplistic graphics of rares(if they do, they probably don't understand what inherent value means), while there are many very rich people who believe that great paintings have incredibly high inherent value.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party hats are valued for being valuable

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Famous paintings too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is an egregious misquotation. My actual sentence was "Party hats are valued for being valuable, nothing more.", which wouldn't have worked for your seemingly witty reply. This isn't the kind of response I expected from you...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fact is that if people wake up tomorrow and decide that party hats and other discontinued items aren't worth pursuing, as there is no real basis for their value save for the lack of a suitable alternative for displaying wealth, then they would lose all of their value overnight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fact is that if everyone decided tomorrow that going to the mcdonalds is bad for your health and thus everyone stops going there, the mcdonalds company would go bankrupt. Same goes for coca-cola. And if everyone suddenly decided not to use google anymore from now on, the 150bil market cap of the company will be gone faster than you wrote your post.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, you're not proving anything here, except for stating a situation that won't happen. Yes, it's all based on trust and expectation, but like I just pointed out, a lot in the economic world is based on trust and expectation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

True, but McDonald's, Coca-Cola, and Google all provide valuable services as a basis for their worth. Nevertheless, it's useless to attack me with those examples, because I'm not proclaiming that they will last forever. I mean, companies like those go bankrupt every day, so those examples do nothing but support my point, and argue against yours... I'm not trying to prove anything here, I'm pointing out holes in other people's proofs, so why accuse me of not proving anything?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm sure many of you are laughing while you read this, confident that rares will go up in value forever

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not "confident" that rares will go up in value forever. I only always state that rares can only go up on the long-term providing that the market conditions don't change. The major market conditions that influence the prices of rares on the long-term are population growth, inflation and the lack of expensive alternatives for people to spend their cash on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That sentence, "I only always state that rares can only go up on the long-term...", is the exact sentence that makes me think the rares market is primed for a huge crash--Not because I see a specific way that it will fall, not that I believe I have a better understanding of the factors than you. The only thing that jumps out at me, is that people saying "xxxx can only go up in the long term" is exactly what people have historically said during price runups leading up to huge bubble collapses. Paradoxically, the more faith people have that the prices won't collapse, the more primed the prices are to collapse, because that faith is exactly what drives the prices up to unsustainable levels. Actually, I would characterise that faith as the 4th condition that influences the price of rares in the long-term, it's the condition you omitted from your description, and it's the reason we disagree.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, I have discussed and mentioned 'disaster' like scenario's for rares before, like here for example. Still, I do not believe we're at that point - yet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the other hand, the population growth, expressed as a rate, has been dropping slightly. Jagex has also been implementing a few (small) anti-inflation measurements (construction) and offered good and expensive options for people to spend their cash on (construction, third age armour). All of this does prevent rares from going up further in price. If Jagex continues with that, they could keep the rares prices quite stable like they have been for quite some time now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now I want to know from you, how long have you already been sceptic about the prices of rares?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ah, very nice thread, it seems like I've read that before. The major issue I have with both you and Blaek in that thread is your dependence on the unstated assumption, "conditions must change measurably before any major change can happen in the market". This simply isn't true, randomness in the market is a very powerful factor, it could take nothing more than a small price adjustment to finally break investor confidence in rares and begin a massive panic. Having studied chaos theory in university, I know how trite it is to bring it up here ... but it's here whether I mention it or not. I wish I had a link to this, but I read an article recently referencing a study of expert predictions in many fields. It found that the problem with expert predictions is that experts tend to overvalue their own analysis as to the reasons for events, which in turn discounts their knowledge of the statistical behaviors of the events in question. Thus, the reason why relatively crude computer simulations often outperform the experts, is the computer simulations' lack of an ego.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How long have I been a skeptic about the price of rares? I'd say I'm a lifelong skeptic, about everything. I think the thing that induces me to post on this subject is not solely the unreasonable faith of many of the rares adherents, but their annoyingly zealous proselytization in service of that faith. Viewed as either a self-serving attempt to increase the value of their product, or as an annoyingly incoherent meme, to me it is a plague on the forums. Anyways, as to my personal "predictions" for rares, I think it is possible that they could continue in their current state for 5 more years, or they could crash tomorrow. I believe that there is inescapable doubt and uncertainty as to which, but that people afterwards will claim they knew when and why it was going to happen. The fact that even if no one really understands the situation, when everyone makes a prediction, some of them are bound to come true-- will escape them completely.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That brings up another interesting point, in the stock market or real estate market, any speculative bubble will eventually deflate, either with a collapse or a slow leveling/subsidence. But, what if Runescape ends before the rares market ever collapses? That depends in part on how it ends, a sudden shutdown as it's replaced with a rs 3, or a slow death as it runs its course and declines. I have a gut feeling that in the latter case, the rares market would collapse, since people would then see the "end of the future" and want to convert to more usable goods. The consideration of expected lifespan for RS2 has bearing on another disingenuous argument I see here a lot--that only discontinued items can truly be rare. Let's assume for the sake of argument that there are 10000 party hats. Imagine that they made a new rare that only drops once per week. So, 52 new ones per year. Does anyone really think that runescape2 will run for 200 more years, making the new item more common than party hats? Scarcity is time-dependent, and only some time frames are reasonable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

yet another interesting point, is that for the merchants whose only goal in RS is to accumulate rares/wealth, there may be no compelling reason to diversify as a means of guarding against a rares collapse. At that point, their only reason to play RS would be gone, so the loss of all their gains wouldn't really matter. A very unique situation, to be sure.