Jagex' new rares? - 3A vs discontinued - PRICE UPDATE 7/2

[Platinum_Myr]

Well... I can see your argument, and I agree somewhat.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My question is, what if Jagex introduced an item who's drop-rate actually decreased over time?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that third-age will stay "rare", and the prices will go up, because of how hard it is to get a piece.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I also think, that the number of sets into the game per day is pretty low, and that it is more constant than a percent increase.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who really knows? Lets just wait and see.

[ultrablue]

The prices on top 3rd age have risen so much just because of merchanters buying it from those who pee'd in their pants of joy after getting the item. Now those merchs are 'controlling' the prices, and even if the desperate buyer manages to get a 10% "discount" on the item, (which looks good for the buyer) the pure profit is still high for the merch who spent a couple of days on the process.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And i bet those merchs are those very 'neutral' guys making threads on forums about how rare it is to get a 3rd age item :) Just to get their prices up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Merely it might be true, the chances are very slim, but think again. Who would that rant about 3rd rarity benefit most? You as the one doing clues 24/7? or the merch who earns millions by manipulating the prices?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing against you merchants, but play fair :)

[Ts_Stormrage]

I understand the implication...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But if you are acusing me of price manipulation, then youre barking up the wrong tree. I have been trying to get people to realise how rare such a 3rd Age item actually it, yes, but I dont have such an item, nor the cash to buy it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your theory on merchanters does hold merit, I'll grant you that, and I'm sure many merchanters will thank me for making this thread. But I have not been tryign to manipulate the prices, merely just trying to point out the rarity of such things.

[xSxqPowerx]

First price updates are in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age kiteshield 90,000,000gp - 140,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age platebody 90,000,000gp - 120,000,000gp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will keep the first post updated with the new prices, but the fact that these items have nearly doubled in value, makes the things that were estimated way off...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If these items will continue to rise in value like this, then anyone getting such an item from a clue scroll will not sell it easily. Just because of that, the value will only go up even faster!!!

They never grew in value. Your original prices were wrong. I remember that when you posted this people were giving purple p hats for third age kite.

[malo2]

I don't understand how you would know the prices of something nobody is even selling?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These prices guides are always very inaccurate, and they change the economy so easily because so many people rely on them without realizing this. The person who set those prices probably spent 2 mins in fally and saw someone offering a phat and then put the price on the guide right away. 3rd age really isn't worth that much, but the fact that these price guides and people like you are claiming that these are the prices is what is changing what people think about these armor so easily, even though nobody is really selling any of this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is pure price manipulation whether or not its your actual intent, and you aren't helping anybody.

[jwrm22]

they are 90mil already?!!! i want that kite!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

plz gimmie one from a clue...

[kill2pleasure]

Omg this is absolutly amazing 90m for the kite!!! i bet people will easily sell for 100m!! omg i need one off clue it would make all my rs dreams come true!!! :D:D:D :ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes:

[lobsta]

Not halting, maybe slowing them down a bit, but that was not the comparison I orginally made.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was saying that the ammount of 3rd age items per active subscriber will eventually decline, just like discontinued items...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The amount of 3rd age items per active subcriber declining will have very little effect on the price of 3rd age items. It is the amount of players who can afford the 3rd age items that will influence the prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I also believe that merchants are blamed consistantly for 'controlling' the prices. It is as much the fault of those who are willing to give merchants the money they are asking for. If the vast majority of people simply refused to pay x for item y, then the price would fall. For example, no one would spend 100m on a pair of ranger boots.

[deciever2]

Gaaah, that's ridiculous. Unless the armor was like 1000 times better than dragon, i wouldn't buy it.

[Ts_Stormrage]

Its amazing how quickly people can change their opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Less then a week ago, everyone was liek "nah, they are just new, they will drop in price".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now that they havent dropped, but risen in price LIKE I SAID THEY WOULD, all you hear is "It is (you are) price manipulation!"...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I doubt that this thread has affected the price of these items.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Get a grip

[Wachtwoord]

Gaaah, that's ridiculous. Unless the armor was like 1000 times better than dragon, i wouldn't buy it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And rares are? :-w

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I just read the whole threat and I think it will be very interesting to see how these prices will develope. Maybe another great graph from Duke Freedon? :pray:

[number1short]

I bet this is an attempt to lower rares. What I can see, it worked. =D> They are VERY rare, and the demand greatly overpowers the supply. That's why they're so expensive. And they're not new items like phats, because they are not discontinued.

[Duke_Freedom]

Now that they havent dropped, but risen in price LIKE I SAID THEY WOULD, all you hear is "It is (you are) price manipulation!"...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I believe some people are saying that the prices were already at these price levels. Checking it up myself for a bit it seems you got your info from some price discussion thread on the official forums. Prices on such threads are always miles off, so I have to agree with them here. Furthermore I see no trade in the melee type items on the forums whatsoever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, let's just give it a few months before stating it is going one way or another... Only then we'll really be able to see if the items have the potention to rise on the long-term. It would be interesting (yet, in my opinion, strange) if they did though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I just read the whole threat and I think it will be very interesting to see how these prices will develope. Maybe another great graph from Duke Freedom?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't you guys got anything better to do than give me more prices to keep track off? :P Not gonna keep close track of these prices, I'm sure stormrage will, but I'll be curious to see their prices in a few months anyway.

[Aresgodowar]

I don't understand how you would know the prices of something nobody is even selling?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These prices guides are always very inaccurate, and they change the economy so easily because so many people rely on them without realizing this. The person who set those prices probably spent 2 mins in fally and saw someone offering a phat and then put the price on the guide right away. 3rd age really isn't worth that much, but the fact that these price guides and people like you are claiming that these are the prices is what is changing what people think about these armor so easily, even though nobody is really selling any of this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is pure price manipulation whether or not its your actual intent, and you aren't helping anybody.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this doesnt explain people trading party hats for pieces of the set the first day they came out. i saw people posting on the offical forums saying that they would trade a blue party hat or multiple hats for a set of third age. i dont believe that someone could write in the prices for the new items an hr after they come out.

[wakka102]

 

I don't understand how you would know the prices of something nobody is even selling?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These prices guides are always very inaccurate, and they change the economy so easily because so many people rely on them without realizing this. The person who set those prices probably spent 2 mins in fally and saw someone offering a phat and then put the price on the guide right away. 3rd age really isn't worth that much, but the fact that these price guides and people like you are claiming that these are the prices is what is changing what people think about these armor so easily, even though nobody is really selling any of this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is pure price manipulation whether or not its your actual intent, and you aren't helping anybody.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this doesnt explain people trading party hats for pieces of the set the first day they came out. i saw people posting on the offical forums saying that they would trade a blue party hat or multiple hats for a set of third age. i dont believe that someone could write in the prices for the new items an hr after they come out.

Anyone who did that was just stupid :lol: . Prices will drop, people just need to learn patience. NEVER buy a rare item the day it comes out, the price always seems to stabalize at alot less the day after or a few days later. 3rd age items, are not stable because not enough are on the market yet.

[darksniper]

like every nondiscontinued items, theyll go downhill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

mh hm. :wink:

[swampjedi]

Drop rates blow a hole in that, abyssal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, and darksniper, the fact that you have a definition of spam in your signature blows my mind, since the one before this one is surely spam.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Irony, gotta love it.

[malo2]

 

I don't understand how you would know the prices of something nobody is even selling?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These prices guides are always very inaccurate, and they change the economy so easily because so many people rely on them without realizing this. The person who set those prices probably spent 2 mins in fally and saw someone offering a phat and then put the price on the guide right away. 3rd age really isn't worth that much, but the fact that these price guides and people like you are claiming that these are the prices is what is changing what people think about these armor so easily, even though nobody is really selling any of this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is pure price manipulation whether or not its your actual intent, and you aren't helping anybody.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

this doesnt explain people trading party hats for pieces of the set the first day they came out. i saw people posting on the offical forums saying that they would trade a blue party hat or multiple hats for a set of third age. i dont believe that someone could write in the prices for the new items an hr after they come out.

what rock have you been living under your whole rs life? whenever a new item comes out, people always offer ridiculous amounts at first, ALWAYS. For example, people were buying dlegs anywhere from 10-40m the day they came out, whips were 10-20m when people relized they actually existed. Nobody knows values of items if they were just released, and when a new item comes out, there are people who always offer huge amounts for them.

[Ts_Stormrage]

Malo2:

 

 

 

You are absolutely right about 1 thing:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices of new items are always INSANE when they come out "at first" as you said...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The rest of what you said is just hot air when dealing with this 3rd age stuff...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This thread STARTED a month after these items came out. And today, the estimated (figured I'd have to bold that word out for you) prices of these new items have only gone up... WAY up!...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People make the prices with supply and demand. Demand is high as ever, supply is low at best, so low that you can not get a decent average on what these items sell for.

 

 

 

This fact alone makes these items shoot up in value.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now you can acuse me all you want for trying to manipulate prices, thats not goign to actually make me stop discussing them. Take it up with a tip.it or jagex mod if you want.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duke Freedom:

 

 

 

Ofcourse I'm going to keep track of these prices, but as of yet it is kind of hard.

 

 

 

As for a graph, I'll try to collect the data, but as far as graphs go, you're gonna have to help me out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone else:

 

 

 

Having an opinion about the prices and wether or not they are going up or down, as well as speculating why, has no effect on the prices.

 

 

 

It is how often these items are handled, who has them, and wether someone sells them or not. Right now it is safe to say that there are only a handfull of items being brought into the economy each day. If you happen to be one of these lucky few, think carefully what you do with it.

[malo2]

Malo2:

 

 

 

You are absolutely right about 1 thing:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices of new items are always INSANE when they come out "at first" as you said...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The rest of what you said is just hot air when dealing with this 3rd age stuff...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This thread STARTED a month after these items came out. And today, the estimated (figured I'd have to bold that word out for you) prices of these new items have only gone up... WAY up!...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People make the prices with supply and demand. Demand is high as ever, supply is low at best, so low that you can not get a decent average on what these items sell for.

 

 

 

This fact alone makes these items shoot up in value.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now you can acuse me all you want for trying to manipulate prices, thats not goign to actually make me stop discussing them. Take it up with a tip.it or jagex mod if you want.

yes, everybody knows the concept of supply and demand, and yes its very fascinating, but you made no reference to my argument/point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its funny how once somebody grasps the idea of supply&demand, they suddenly feel like they're the king of economics and know everything, and no I'm not saying I'm and economics genius, but I do know better than to blame everything on supply and demand.

[Halo0630]

The solid point is that eventually rares will cost more than even 3rd age armor... it's gonna happen! As the days go by the rares cost more for they are discontinued. The 3rd age armor will stay mostly the same.. might go up and down a few times but around the same.

[ssxisfun1]

i see your point in this post but if u think about it discountinued items mean they rares. The new treasure trail rewards just came out and not enough ppl have the rewards. Now maybe year later enough ppl will have the rewards therefore making them rares which will make them discountinued. :-k

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But very nice never thought of it that way. :thumbsup: =D>

[Ts_Stormrage]

Malo2:

 

 

 

My argument was that you used examples of high priced items at first who later stabilized.

 

 

 

This stabilization of the items you mentioned, or atleast the decline in the price you pay for these items, were visible within the first week (btw, whips went for much much higher when they first came out, read the whole thread next time hmk?).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's been 42 days... 6 weeks... and the prices have only gone up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You acuse me of price manipulation with making such a thread about the price developments, and then you blame the merchanters for hoarding the 3rd age stuff, as to drive the prices up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Get your head out of your (fill in the blank), and think before you are putting your fingers to your keyboard.

 

 

 

If I was to guess you are just a little kid who is seeing the chances ever owning such an item slipping through his fingers and lashing out at the nearest possible thing to vent his frustration...

[Duke_Freedom]

It's been 42 days... 6 weeks... and the prices have only gone up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They never grew in value. Your original prices were wrong. I remember that when you posted this people were giving purple p hats for third age kite.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

People are saying your initial prices were inaccurate and thus no price rise every happened. Considering the trade in these items is so low, I have to question if your initial prices were indeed anything near accurate...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This stabilization of the items you mentioned, or atleast the decline in the price you pay for these items, were visible within the first week

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And even if they did grow, it just counts towards the initial stabilization period, which takes longer the rarer the items are. The initial stabilization period has little to nothing to do with the eventual price development on the long-term, which is what we were discussing here as far as I know?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So let's leave the flaming at the door and let the time do it's work before 'claiming' anyone was right / wrong.

[FuBai]

I like the idea, let me sure I understand it correctly, in an abstract way to make it clear.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's say the drop rate is 1 per 50 people killing the monster for an hour. So, in an hour of 50 people killing the same monster over and over (i'm assuming equal stats and equipent etc), only one of them will get the drop. As the number of people increases, the drop rate is still 1 per hour, but this time it's spead across, let's say, 100 people. So now, although there is 1 drop per hour, in that hour the number of people wanting that drop has doubled, so the price goes up for that drop. Thus, whilst is not "discontinued" per se, the drop rate is so slow that population growth outstrips it. I.e. the total drop number per capita of the population gets smaller. So whilst there are more of that drop in the economy in numerical terms, there is less of it per capita? Or that it matches population growth so that there is always going to be the same amount of it per capita? Either way it works along the same principles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An interesting idea, but I see two problems - firstly they do not want new rares in the economy - Jagex have always expressed regret over the whole rares thing, and secondly a sliding drop rate that matches population growth seems a bit of a complicated thing to make. I rather think that they are just very rare, but thier rarity will decrease over time as the drop rate is a fixed value - so lets say 1:50 clues. More people will do more clues, and more drops will be achieved. People will naturaly keep doing clues to get something that valuable, so I would wager that they will steadily decrease in price as more of them hit the economy. Give it a year, accounting for inflation of course, and thier net value will have decreased.