Jagex' new rares? - 3A vs discontinued - PRICE UPDATE 7/2

[Satenza]

Argh, this last year Jagex have really screwed rares around.

[wingx128]

Whoever said the drop rate is 1 in 10,000 thats a load of bull, drop rate for left half off a greater demon is like 1 in 16,000, i have a feeling off a skeleton your looking at something more like 1 in 90,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you read what I wrote? I quoted it from someone else on the official forums. Read next time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here's the code to the topic once more:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quick find code: 15-16-992-37069354

[123Yourgone]

 

Whoever said the drop rate is 1 in 10,000 thats a load of bull, drop rate for left half off a greater demon is like 1 in 16,000, i have a feeling off a skeleton your looking at something more like 1 in 90,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you read what I wrote? I quoted it from someone else on the official forums. Read next time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here's the code to the topic once more:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quick find code: 15-16-992-37069354

 

 

 

Maybe if you read i said whoever said it, meaning the person who told you.

 

 

 

Read next time.

[wingx128]

 

 

Whoever said the drop rate is 1 in 10,000 thats a load of bull, drop rate for left half off a greater demon is like 1 in 16,000, i have a feeling off a skeleton your looking at something more like 1 in 90,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you read what I wrote? I quoted it from someone else on the official forums. Read next time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here's the code to the topic once more:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quick find code: 15-16-992-37069354

 

 

 

Maybe if you read i said whoever said it, meaning the person who told you.

 

 

 

Read next time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry, thought you meant me.

[Star_Fox]

discontinued ftw, green mask will be enough to buy all three sets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3rd age is basically restarting dragon armor.

[Kill_Thomas9]

First and foremost, your title is trying to compare Third Age items, which have increasing supply, to Discontinued Items, which have decreasing supply. An item which can still be obtained is never going to follow the same price patterns as an item which can no longer be found in the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, to say this new Third Age armor is going to follow the typical pattern for newly introduced items is foolish. Not only is the rate for these items showing up in a clue quoted as being 1/10,000, or 0.01%, but to complete a level 3 clue requires a player to also find the Clue, and complete the tasks required, which is what makes these items different from Dragon Chains, or Barrows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One item that I find to be quite comparable is a Robin Hood Hat. RHH's are very similar to 3rd age armor, because they are Rare level 3 clue drops, and because they have game utility (very good stats). The utility creates demand from nearly all of Runescape; anybody who trains Combat is a potential buyer. Since there is such a minimal amount of new Third Age equipment being introduced into the game, and the demand for such items is so high, it is quite unlikely that there will be any price drop in the near-future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would estimate the prices on these items will remain quite constant, perhaps even slowly increasing, until some alternative equipment is implemented into the game. But for now, the extreme rarity of these items, and the fact that they are the best indestructible items in the game will keep their equilibrium price very high.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I believe the point he was making was that they are not decreasing in rarity, as most new armor does. Not that

 

 

 

Example:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lets say that there are currently around 1,000,000 members who are active. (thats about the current number)

 

 

 

What he is saying is that the rarity of rares (such as masks, p hats, santas, ect.) are increasing.

 

 

 

Lets say the rarity is 5,000 rares per 1,000,000 players, or 1/200. More of them keep going out of the game every day (sometimes hundreds at a time, like in the case of Duke Freedom, or Cursed You, or other rich rare owners), and people want more and more of them. I would be willing to say it will eventually get to 1/600 if things continue the way they are.

 

 

 

The value starts out low, with many of the item, and gets higher, when there are more people, and less items. There is a high demand, and the demand >>> the supply. It is a negetive supply infact; people get banned, quit, ect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now lets say the rarity of dragon legs, about a week after they came out was 200 legs per 500,000 members, or 1/2500. Now the rarity is probably 200,000 legs per 1,000,000 members, or 1/50, and there are more legs than players wanting them, comming into the game every day. This means the rarity will probably go down to 1/40 eventually, or even 1/30.

 

 

 

The value starts out high, because of the small amount of said item, and decreases, when more of the item enter the game. The demand > the supply (like all marketable iteas), but unlike discontinued items, the supply eventually goes up, but the demand goes down, as the new effect of the item wears off, and better items come into the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now the third age items. The first week they were released, they were selling a full set for about 60mil. I would say there were about 13 sets the entire first week. Thats 1/77,000. Now I would say there are about 200 sets in the game. Thats around 1/5000. I would say the it might get to about 1/4000 after a while.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now for the point the author was making. What he is saying is that the item is so rare, that players to buy the armor are increasing faster than the armor can come into the game, so the rarity is going up.

 

 

 

This is not true though, becuase if its 1 armor per 5000 players, 5000 players would have to come into the game for every peice of armor that comes into the game... Which isn't going to happen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If that made sense (which I hope it did, considering I spent a long time typing it), I hope you get what I mean.

 

 

 

Some of this info is probable in accurate, but the theory, and thinking behind it still stand.

[Guitarted7]

3rd age will go down eventually

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but is it me or have rares been at a price plateau for a while now? my redmask been the same as i got it back again in november.....

[swampjedi]

Rares have been on a plateau for 6 months, give or take. That's why I'm not worried about buying any more of them.

[xXCaBBaGeXx]

Yeah it will drop, look at the dragon med, the drop rate is 1/16,000 so i've heard.

[rune0nite]

What the original post stated was that Jagex might be changeing the drop rate in accordiance to their demand to keep the items rareity. Anyway I doun't know if they would do that might make some people mad not me frankly because it would keep them from makeing new items all the time.

[silveraxe00]

They are only expensive as they are new.

[Guest arkdemon]

it will go down eventually slowly but it will go down when whips came out they were 30m

[123Yourgone]

it will go down eventually slowly but it will go down when whips came out they were 30m

3rd age is a LOT harder to get then a whip.

 

 

 

like 250 times harder to get.

[Uula]

Well the main reason for the high price is probably that demand rises faster than supply... There come more rich players that can afford to buy it, and want to buy it, than people who actually get it from the treasure trails.

[swampjedi]

My point was, even if these items are coming into the game very slowly, eventually they'll be more common than rares (if they aren't already) since rares don't come into the game at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I do agree that this is another attempt of Jagex to reduce the market for rares.

[Freshwacka]

 

it will go down eventually slowly but it will go down when whips came out they were 30m

3rd age is a LOT harder to get then a whip.

 

 

 

like 250 times harder to get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Didnt it take people like a month to get 85 slayer??

[Profins]

 

it will go down eventually slowly but it will go down when whips came out they were 30m

3rd age is a LOT harder to get then a whip.

 

 

 

like 250 times harder to get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liiike..No it isn't?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Getting 85 slayer is *MUCH* harder than getting lvl 3 clues.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Whips we're released, slayer were. Now, which is harder? Months of slayering or max 1 week of doing clues? Sorry pal. Slayer wins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

^^Bah, Fresh took my words.:(

[Dharockslayer]

 

 

it will go down eventually slowly but it will go down when whips came out they were 30m

3rd age is a LOT harder to get then a whip.

 

 

 

like 250 times harder to get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Liiike..No it isn't?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Getting 85 slayer is *MUCH* harder than getting lvl 3 clues.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When Whips we're released, slayer were. Now, which is harder? Months of slayering or max 1 week of doing clues? Sorry pal. Slayer wins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

^^Bah, Fresh took my words.:(

 

 

 

I agree on getting 85 slayer is very hard. But the chance of a 3rd age item is extremely slim, and one week of doing clues? thats about 30 clues if your fast and lucky.

 

 

 

Thats like comparing getting 85 slayer is and getting a whip to slaying dust devils and kill 10k of em with one chain in the end. Sorry, 3rd age items are just TOO rare.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But I much rather see someone with 85 slayer getting a whip then someone doing one clue and having extreme luck of getting a 3rd age item. But thats rather OT

[arkwelded]

i made a ton of cash off clues, i was doing 3-5 a day for a while when i was off work for knee surgery. the problem is you can only do that so long before the junk you get starts to get you discouraged. the new "wearing special items", "emotes", and "double agent" things are already old to me. id rather go hit dag kings then buy the third age if i wanted it in stead of piss my time away chasing junk. i really dont need any more rune picks and axes, and can make my own black d'hide :lol:

[r2-pleasent]

Once again, you people are comparing Third Age drop rates to items you find from monsters. Items that are dropped exclusively by clues are not going to follow the same price patterns because of the length of time it takes to complete a level 3 Clue. First of all, Clues are impossible to complete with a macroer, while monsters are surely not. Secondly, the average player takes well over 2 hours to complete just one level 3 Clue. If we are saying the drop rate on these items is 0.01% (which was quoted from a Jagex Mod), then it doesn't take a genius to realize how these items are by far the hardest to come by in the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To say Whips are rare because you need 85 Slayer is somewhat foolish as well. Certainly, it takes a good deal of time for a player to get 85 Slayer, but once the level is achieved, it once again just becomes a player killing a monster for the item. And even if the drop rate on a Whip is the same as a Third Age item (Which it is NOT, it is much higher), you can estimate a player would easily be killing at least one Demon every 4 minutes, which means by the time Player x is done one clue, he could have killed 30+ Abyssal Demons (can anyone pass me their average Abyssal kills / hour). This explains why the price on Whips began at such a high value (around 50M), as there were only 2 people with 85 Slayer for awhile, which only allowed for a couple of whips to be found in the first day. I remember buying the second Whip 0ddball found for around 53M, and selling it at the Duel Arena for 75M.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, the basic deal is, Clue Items do not even come close to following the same pattern as items dropped from monsters. This is why I believe Third Age Items should not be judged using patterns from items which are obtainable through monster drops, due to extreme differences in supply charts. The only real comparable items for Third Age Armor are Ranger Boots and RHH's, which follow a very distinct price pattern.

[jessy87]

The only real comparable items for Third Age Armor are Ranger Boots and RHH's, which follow a very distinct price pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

well yeah of course, but can you explain the price patterns of why robin hood hats and ranger boots have sky rocketed in the last year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

personally the only reason that makes sense to me in that situation is the reduced frequency in obtaining them due to addition treasure trail items being added.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

from what i was told, robin hood hats were nearly 5mil when first released(i had started runescape then) and now they are like 3mil, but when i first bought mine, they were 1.8mil and some were selling for even less. and ranger boots could be gotten for like 400k(i had like 5 pairs for 400k ea)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

my point in this post is will 3rd age be high, then go low, then raise another 10-20mil? from like what? 150mil down to like 60mil then back up to 80mil

[Peronix]

Really, these new third age items are just an extreme version of dragon chains, legs, or any other new 'rare' item. They will continue to increase, and only after a long while will they start to fall, unlike the other 'rare' items which started falling earlier due to more supply, but definatly unlike true 'rares' which have no increased supply.

[r2-pleasent]

 

The only real comparable items for Third Age Armor are Ranger Boots and RHH's, which follow a very distinct price pattern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

well yeah of course, but can you explain the price patterns of why robin hood hats and ranger boots have sky rocketed in the last year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jessy, you're forgetting the update where Clues were made to be MUCH more difficult. When RHH's were 1.8Mil, Level 3 Clues could be completed in well under half an hour. Jagex then added much more difficulty to them.

[jessy87]

other then the emotes and required items that not many people had/have like a rune war hammer or addy sq i dont recall them ever getting much harder.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i honestly dont remember jagex saying they got harder, i mean their has to be a reason you said this, perhaps the drop rate was decreased? i dunno, like i said i dont remember this and im sure you could provide proof if you had to.

[r2-pleasent]

Extra Clues and Clue Rewards

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have introduced more clues into the mix of random clues. Those who know most of the answers will now have new challenges.

 

 

 

Due to the bigger variety of clues, we have also added some new treasure trail rewards for people to find.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Happy treasure hunting!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This was the update I'm talking about, took awhile for me to find it. Although it doesn't seem like a big change, Jagex introduced new challenges that required Quests to be completed, and certain stat requirements to complete as well, not to mention clues were made much longer.