Jagex' new rares? - 3A vs discontinued - PRICE UPDATE 7/2

[Ts_Stormrage]

I just been browsing the popular priceguide site who's link I will not put here. One thing I noticed was the price of some of the new Treasure Trail items released a month ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age kiteshield 50,000,000gp - 70,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age platebody 50,000,000gp - 65,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age robe top 30,000,000gp - 40,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age range top 29,000,000gp - 32,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age platelegs 25,000,000gp - 30,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age robe 25,000,000gp - 30,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age full helm 20,000,000gp - 25,000,000gp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These are the items currently (Januari 10th) worth equal to or more then a Santa Hat.

 

 

 

Now I know that jagex sometimes exxagerates (or rather the opposite, understates) certain things in their news bulletins, but "rares then getting a champion scroll from a pesky Imp" may not have done it justice at all...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone has seen a Phat at some point, but how often have you seen someone wear a piece of 3rd age armor?

 

 

 

Has Jagex set the droprate of these new items so low, that the ratio of new members to new items remains constant, or worse, shifts slowly still into the direction of more members then items dropped? (relativly speaking ofcourse; where it was 1 item every 1k lvl-3-clues, it could now be 1 item every 1200 lvl-3-clues)...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Either way, it is very rare, if not unique for a non-rare (items that are still released into the economy) to INCREASE in price still after the initial surge of the "new-ness" that has to wear off still...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So with these items released; Are they the new rares? If not, what then are they?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One can introduce the term "uncommon" item here, which would certainly suggest it is hard to get, but not impossible. My opinion is that there will be more of such items in the future, most likely similarly introduced via the treasure trails.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PS: One thing puzzles me though. I know that more people have been hunting for lvl-3-clues then before the Treasure Trail update, which should make items like the Saradomin Plate more common. On the other hand they should be far less common, since the variety of items you can get from a clue, is more then doubled.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPS: Could anyone help me out on this thread? Much appreciated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uPDATE 16/1]

 

 

 

The first price updates are in. Since this was posted, the value of these items have been updated:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age kiteshield 90,000,000gp - 140,000,000gp

 

 

 

Third Age platebody 90,000,000gp - 120,000,000gp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see, the value of these items have nearly DOUBLED sicne I first posted their prices.

 

 

 

Oh how I wish I could watch the faces of some people while they are eating their words.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

More to come!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uPDATE 24/1]

 

 

 

More updated prices are in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age kiteshield 90,000,000gp - 130,000,000gp (went down slightly)

 

 

 

Third Age platebody 75,000,000gp - 100,000,000gp (went down)

 

 

 

Third Age plateleg 26,000,000gp - 30,000,000gp (went up)

 

 

 

Third Age robe top 26,000,000gp - 30,000,000gp (went down)

 

 

 

Third Age full helm 26,000,000gp - 29,000,000gp (went up)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For details see my latest post

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uPDATE 2/2]

 

 

 

Another updated price is in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age platebody 70,000,000gp - 80,000,000gp (went down)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For details see my latest post

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uPDATE 7/2]

 

 

 

Another updated price is in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age platebody 55,000,000gp - 60,000,000gp (went down, but still the next best expensive item after 3rd age Kite)

 

 

 

Third Age platelegs 30,000,000gp - 35,000,000gp (went up)

 

 

 

Third Age robe top 25,000,000gp - 30,000,000gp (went down slightly)

 

 

 

Third Age robe 24,000,000gp - 27,000,000gp (went down)

 

 

 

Third Age full helm 25,000,000gp - 29,000,000gp (went down slightly)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And the 3rd Age Kiteshield is now a whopping

 

 

 

100,000,000gp - 150,000,000gp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For details see my latest post

[rise]

Yes i agree for the moment these are "rare" but there is a difference between these and an accual rare also i have sceen at least 3 or 4 people wearing full 3rd age melee and 5 or so people selling parts of it

[Freshwacka]

Rares are considered Discontinued items. These aren't discontinued.

[Aquashock]

With the release of something like this its going to be "rare" for some time (especially with the LOW drop percentages, ive done well over 50 lvl 3 clues without one, 25+ in the first week of the new clues, profit, yeah, 3A items >.> no)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But eventually the price will fall, unlike rares.

[ssenmodnar]

perhaps ppl saved up and thus more ppl have cash to go around to buy these items?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

there was also a massive surge to do lvl 3 trails after the clues first came out but obviously they have dropped dramatically

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

third age WILL drop in prices eventually... it's just still too soon to judge

[Star_Fox]

like every nondiscontinued items, theyll go downhill.

[ugafan_2009]

You say that one in a thousand odds. I'd say about 3k clues are done a day(probably more, just a guess)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 new 3rd age a day, 0 new partyhats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3rd age will catch up.

[elmo_killer6]

since theyre pretty new at the moment and very "uncommon" (rare is used in runescape as a non-reproducible item) but as more trails are done more come into the game so eventually theyll be cheaper than rares.

[das1330]

it'll take time, but eventually it will go down for the reasons stated above. it will always be somewhat high though, probly making it the new, high end dragon.

[Ts_Stormrage]

You say that one in a thousand odds. I'd say about 3k clues are done a day(probably more, just a guess)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 new 3rd age a day, 0 new partyhats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3rd age will catch up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 new 3rd age items a day, and how many new members a day? its the relative ratio of 3rd age items vs total active members that may cause these items to stay up there rising in price for a looong time...

[wingx128]

 

You say that one in a thousand odds. I'd say about 3k clues are done a day(probably more, just a guess)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 new 3rd age a day, 0 new partyhats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3rd age will catch up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 new 3rd age items a day, and how many new members a day? its the relative ratio of 3rd age items vs total active members that may cause these items to stay up there rising in price for a looong time...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There's a topic on the official runescape about this:

 

 

 

Quick find code: 15-16-992-37069354

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here's one of the quotes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Paul Gower said that:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The chance of getting a piece of 3rd age armour is precisely the same as getting a left half shield from a skeleton!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Okay... And the drop rate for getting a shield left half is about 1 out of 10,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That means you have a 0.0001% chance of getting a piece of 3rd age armour every time you do a clue. "

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1/10000 is way greater than 1/1000. Also, I don't think that 3000 clues will be done in a day now. The holidays are over.

[Ianw77]

I've seen someone in 3rd Age Ranger but that was it. I was amazed when I first saw it.

[Xewleer]

since theyre pretty new at the moment and very "uncommon" (rare is used in runescape as a non-reproducible item) but as more trails are done more come into the game so eventually theyll be cheaper than rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

nods head several times,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I right now watch the markets but dont participate in them, price will go down, but stay above dragon chain for a year at least.

[un1kmage]

I'm pretty sure they will stay above d chain's price forever

[mini193]

ooh ur right. *goes to sell my full guthix*

[ortiz9471]

Well it's actually not new members to 3rd age armor coming in, its members that don't have/want more 3rd age armor to 3rd age armor coming in. Very few people want it simply because very few can afford it, and if you can't afford it then it doesn't matter if you want it or not-you're not getting it. (unless from a clue)

[Hevendor_Guy]

There's a difference between rare and discontinued :roll:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party Hat -- Discontinued Item

 

 

 

Third Age Platebody -- Rare Item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can no longer get party hats unless from another player, their supply is dry and that is why price increases.

 

 

 

No supply + High demand = Extremely High prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age items are very rare, because they are better than dragon and (in my opinion) better looking than barrows *cough*3rd age range > karils*cough*.

 

 

 

Low supply + High demand = High prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There's your economics lesson, now go do your language homework and look up rare and discontinued and tell me the difference :roll:.

[mrpez]

Jagex has not released rares, as we think of them, ever in the game. Yeah, yeah, you may think I'm talking like a noob here, but I'm not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Discontinued Items: These were meant as a fun gift to players on the holidays. It is only by the players actions that these have been classified as "rare" items. Players also set the prices for these items, as Jagex values them only at 2gp each.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age: These are simply treasure trail items. If you look at it from your perspective, every treasure trail item is "rare". Jagex has not set a price for Third Age. It is through players that the price is set. Maybe if nobody liked the range armor for instance, it would be worth only 10M.

[bobbaldrick]

I you think about it, the prices should not come down too much, it is the best armour in the game other than barrows, and monsters dont drop it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fact that monsters dont drop it, and it is only obtainable from clues, which are also a fairly uncommon drop makes this doubly hard to get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I dont imagine there will ever be a case of supply > demand, with only the elite being able to afford them as they have become a status symbol as well.

[frogmite]

There's a difference between rare and discontinued :roll:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party Hat -- Discontinued Item

 

 

 

Third Age Platebody -- Rare Item

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can no longer get party hats unless from another player, their supply is dry and that is why price increases.

 

 

 

No supply + High demand = Extremely High prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age items are very rare, because they are better than dragon and (in my opinion) better looking than barrows *cough*3rd age range > karils*cough*.

 

 

 

Low supply + High demand = High prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There's your economics lesson, now go do your language homework and look up rare and discontinued and tell me the difference :roll:.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow, there's no need to be so abrasive christ, he quiet obviously has the intelligence and ability to see the language and "drop rate" difference of Third Age items to Discontinued. All he's suggesting is that the drop rate could be so low that due to both Runescapes every growing fan-base and the general decline in the value of gold the prices could stabilise if not increase. Something that is honestly quiet feasible considering how many Discontinued items there are currently in the game compared to the third age stuff, it is true that the amount of each is heading in seperate directions and "eventually" numbers must level out then pass each other but the time scale is something quiet intriguing and something it doesn't seem you've considered.

 

 

 

How long did it take dragon legs/whips/RHH to drop?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dragon Legs - (15M) Halved in a matter of hours, hit a base price within a week and was only twice is current price within a day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Abyssal Whip - (43M - 50M) Halved within a week, halved again within 2 months, and again within 6. Reached twice is current and stable price within a year and

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robin Hood Hat - (4M) Halved in 6 months, stayed constant for around a year, then grew by a factor of 1.5 to stabalise at it's current price.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now, I chose these three items specifically because of both their rarity and their difference in drop rate/attainability.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As after the hype (regardless how much their was), each was appropriately priced by rarity and demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This can be seen quiet clearly through the way demand exagerates starting prices then rarity accustomises, of course the scale of the demand affects the time taken for any kind of consistant price to emerge, but in the end I think it's quiet obvious that rarity holds out. Now, YES Third Age prices will change but they'll always reflect rarity and demand.

 

 

 

Any descripinces about my pricing/time periods can and should be mentioned but don't go ranting, they're time frames, not exact dates and I was there and and active through them all (especially whips, as I was certainly one of the first 10 on Tip.it getting my first at 43M and proceeded to merchant a large amount off of them and then 85 slayer two months later).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An inresting post I must say, and definatly one to watch, will be good fun to watch some people eat their words and to be honest, if no conflicting armour comes out and the drop rate stays the same I think we will be waiting for a VERY long time for prices to change at all drastically and can myself see the prices rising as hype dies down.

[Ickle]

It's all about supply and demand. More poeple want Third Age then actually are selling it so that makes High prices :o

[Kashi]

That means you have a 0.0001% chance of getting a piece of 3rd age armour every time you do a clue. "

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not to nit-pick, but 1/10,000 is 0.01%. The percentage you stated is 1/1,000,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But thanks for trying. :wink:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, no matter how slim the chances are, it's certainly gotten me doing clues again.

 

 

 

What are the chances of getting a Robin Hat and a Gilded Plate in the same clue? But I've

 

 

 

done that, and seen it done by other people.

[r2-pleasent]

First and foremost, your title is trying to compare Third Age items, which have increasing supply, to Discontinued Items, which have decreasing supply. An item which can still be obtained is never going to follow the same price patterns as an item which can no longer be found in the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, to say this new Third Age armor is going to follow the typical pattern for newly introduced items is foolish. Not only is the rate for these items showing up in a clue quoted as being 1/10,000, or 0.01%, but to complete a level 3 clue requires a player to also find the Clue, and complete the tasks required, which is what makes these items different from Dragon Chains, or Barrows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One item that I find to be quite comparable is a Robin Hood Hat. RHH's are very similar to 3rd age armor, because they are Rare level 3 clue drops, and because they have game utility (very good stats). The utility creates demand from nearly all of Runescape; anybody who trains Combat is a potential buyer. Since there is such a minimal amount of new Third Age equipment being introduced into the game, and the demand for such items is so high, it is quite unlikely that there will be any price drop in the near-future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would estimate the prices on these items will remain quite constant, perhaps even slowly increasing, until some alternative equipment is implemented into the game. But for now, the extreme rarity of these items, and the fact that they are the best indestructible items in the game will keep their equilibrium price very high.

[zaquierming]

The difference is - these will drop.

[Duke_Freedom]

On the long-term pseudo-rare items like the Third Age items can only go down really. Because the armour is quite rare, it will probably take longer than usual though and it's completely possible that it's price rises instead for shorter periods.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To be honest the wording 'rare' that was initially given to discontinued items was wrong from the start. The reason why 'real' rares are able to go up in price on the long-term is solely because they are Limited Edition items. The word 'discontinued' to describe the items with was first used by Jagex as title for the 'rares board' on the official forums to differentiate between rares like dragon armour and now Third Age items and rares like party hats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Personally I've always referred to dragon armour and such using the word pseudo-rare item though, to differentiate between them and the 'real' rares and point out the fact that on the long-term items like dragon armour do not remain rare and thus are unable to go up in price consistently on the long-term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 new 3rd age items a day, and how many new members a day? its the relative ratio of 3rd age items vs total active members that may cause these items to stay up there rising in price for a looong time...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's indeed mainly the relative ratio of Third Age vs number of subscribers that decides whether they will go up or down in price. However, Third Age is only a little over a month old and they certainly have not reached a stability price yet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's say that, on average, an amount of "x" new Third Age items enter the game economy each day now. And let's assume up until now people were getting roughly "2*x" up until now, because it was a new addition to the game and everyone was trying to get the new armour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That means that there is now an amount of roughly "70*x" of the Third Age armour in the game, which is still growing by "x" a day, or, in other words, by ~1.4% a day. This still translates to a monthly increase of 42%... For comparison, the player population growth of the game is only around 5% a month - those things certainly don't even out.