Yup,. Jagex made it a low drop rate. They said it themselves on their official forums, the chances of getting 3rd age armor from a clue is equal to getting a shield left half from a skeleton! Thats approximatly 1 in 12,000! obviously thys is going to be rare. 12k clues? LEVEL 3? WHO has the patience for that! Imagine trying to kill about 36k blue dragons. I hardly have the patience for 200, let alone 36,000. So obviously thyere are 3 ways to get the 3rd age:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Get lucky and get 3rd age on your first few clues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.Go and kill several thousand monsters for 12k clues.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Buy it. *Ding Ding Ding!*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thats why prices are so high. Many buyers, few sellers.

Prices may be at their peak right NOW, but I suspect that as people realize how expensive they are, they will soon surge in more and more clues, eventually untill 3rd age becomes as cheap as Dragon sets.

simply for now, and for the next few months, possibly a year, we'll see some constant prices. But unlike rares, there is NO constant amount, these will increase in number, and the price will extremely slowly, eventually drop. But this will take a very long time as we can see so far in the past few month(s) that they've been released.

Prices may be at their peak right NOW, but I suspect that as people realize how expensive they are, they will soon surge in more and more clues, eventually untill 3rd age becomes as cheap as Dragon sets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The problem with your theory is that clues are not cost-effective, even with Third Age items at 150M apiece. I mean, do the math on it, if the odds of finding a 3rd Age item is 1 in 12,000, and a Clue takes on average 45 Minutes to complete (which is extremely fast, but we'll assume you're a very good Treasure finder), and there's approximately 10 Third Age Items, so you find one piece every 1,200 clues, then at 150M per piece, this works out to 150M every 900 Hours, or 166K per hour. You can make double that running Nature Runes.

The prices will go down. But think about it, 3rd age armour will always be more expensive than Dragon armour, black d hide and mystic. Because they are better. So no matter what, how ever much full dragon is, thats how much 3rd age will be, or higher in the future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or another theory, it will be easier to get 3rd age armour, then will be worth less than dragon armour, cause its not as rare. I think how people buy stuff is pathetic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Snakeskin bandana

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Attack Defence

 

 

 

Stab 0 Stab 2

 

 

 

Slash 0 Slash 4

 

 

 

Crush 0 Crush 4

 

 

 

Magic 0 Magic 2

 

 

 

Range 0 Range 2

 

 

 

Strength 0 Prayer 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robin hood hat

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Attack Defence

 

 

 

Stab 0 Stab 4

 

 

 

Slash 0 Slash 6

 

 

 

Crush 0 Crush 8

 

 

 

Magic -10 Magic 4

 

 

 

Range 8 Range 4

 

 

 

Strength 0 Prayer 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not much difference, if you think about it...

 

 

 

But the price is unbeleibly different. I don't know the prices, but i know both are a long way away. People only go for the rarity, not what it does to ya. Id survive with a snakeskin bandana, and not waste... for example... 900k on a Robin Hood hat which only gives a couple more bonus's.

 

Prices may be at their peak right NOW, but I suspect that as people realize how expensive they are, they will soon surge in more and more clues, eventually untill 3rd age becomes as cheap as Dragon sets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The problem with your theory is that clues are not cost-effective, even with Third Age items at 150M apiece. I mean, do the math on it, if the odds of finding a 3rd Age item is 1 in 12,000, and a Clue takes on average 45 Minutes to complete (which is extremely fast, but we'll assume you're a very good Treasure finder), and there's approximately 10 Third Age Items, so you find one piece every 1,200 clues, then at 150M per piece, this works out to 150M every 900 Hours, or 166K per hour. You can make double that running Nature Runes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You forgot to add all the other rewards you will be getting.

 

 

 

There will be at least a few robins etc in those 12k clues...

Another price update:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The more expensive items went down, and some of the cheaper items went up (possibly for set completion, which would suggest that there are more items out there then originally thought).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I cant say this means much though. I think all 3rd age items have a long way to go up, still. But this dip in the price can possibly be explained by a few merchanters now selling the items instead of hoarding them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm still surprised that the new amulet (with its massive boost) has yet to pass the value of the Santa hat.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can't wait to hear Duke's thoughts on this...

I cant say this means much though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When they went up you said it ment a lot. :P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway I've been thinking a bit more about it and one of the other reasons I am sceptic against the idea that the new armour will rise in price for a long period is that it came in the game at such a relatively low price compared to the strong claims I have seen people make about "how rare it is" and "how good it is".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know much about the stats on the armour etc in comparison with other armour, but generally new good items enter the game at their highest price, crash during the first few days, possibly rise a bit back later again due to overreaction and then continue to drop slowly and gradually over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok, the third age armour is much rarer so I would expect the sequence of events to take longer (which is why I'm saying that they are still in their stabilization period), but I would not expect the events to be different.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The reason why new armour enters the game at it's peak price is simply because top stakers (who got PLENTY of cash to burden) are generally extremely interested in obtaining the new armour and using it to have a (significant) advantage over their opponents in staking. I know for a fact that this was a very strong reason that the first few whips in the game were sold at 50mil+, whereas a day later (or so) they were costing around ~15mil and another few days / week later they were down to ~8mil.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Point is, I'm not seeing any of that happening now (or I am just unable to observe that solely by looking at the forums - if so tell me) and I'm strongly wondering why? I see extremely few buying threads in the official forums for an item so new, so rare and so 'great'. There are next to no offers on existing selling threads either, which I find unusual with all the extraordinary claims about the armour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For example there has been a guy selling the following items on the forum for at least 3 days now:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Helm = 27M

 

 

 

Body = 80M

 

 

 

Legs = 28M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I believe I could count the number of offers on his threads on one or at most two hands. Yet, the prices according to the price guide in the first post of this thread were more than reasonable, being on the low side of the given price ranges, which, again, makes me wonder why he hasn't sold them yet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I realize some of this is is actually basis for the opposite arguement of some of you that they are bound to go up, stating that people are currently waiting to buy in the hope that the prices drop and that these people will eventually be bored of waiting and will buy anyway, which will cause the eventual rise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still, one of weak points in this arguement is that the more time passes the less rare they become, but we talked about that already. Another one is that I wonder how much you guys want the prices to rise too? Do realize that a full melee set with kite inclusive is already costing over 200mil. Sure, a blue party hat may still cost a little more than double of that, but how much higher do you want them to go?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, I see various people claim that the new items are highly popular, yet my own observation are noticing absolutely nothing of that... What do you people base this on?

While the high alch values of items certainly make the prices of items and the game mechanics regarding economics intransparent, it is not true that the prices on materials are capped by them. People already high alch facing a loss, just like they have been smithing steel bars at a loss for 4 years already too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, obviously the cap is not the strict high alch value but high alch + what ppl are willing to pay for magic xp, which actually seems to have risen a bit over the past few years from what I have seen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still, the high alch values only slow down the speed at which materials can grow and it does not prevent them from growing in price totally. Since material prices have been pretty much constant throughout the years I can only conclude that they didn't experience any inflation / didn't react on the massive money supply increase at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yea, it's a soft cap, not a totally hard cap--but doesn't the fact that materials prices have remained fairly constant argue for the cap's efficacy? It may be a soft cap, but it's a soft cap with built in negative feedback.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The problem is that if people go train magic with other ways then high alching because high alching gets too expensive, those other materials would need to rise in price - that hasn't happened either.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mainly because high alching still isn't too expensive...but I think some amount of training in other ways does already occur. But over the last 3 years, the other changes to the game, barrows, ancient magics, etc, have probably had a stronger effect, so I don't think we can do anything to measure that. Still, if the cost per alch went up 100 per high alch, i think we'd see a very strong reduction in number of high alchs done.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, the investement potential of rares is more important than their popularity due to their expensive price, so the Veblen effect of rares is minimal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But aren't the most expensive rares the wearable ones? That argues to me that the Veblen effect is very strong for rares.

Anyway I've been thinking a bit more about it and one of the other reasons I am sceptic against the idea that the new armour will rise in price for a long period is that it came in the game at such a relatively low price compared to the strong claims I have seen people make about "how rare it is" and "how good it is".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know much about the stats on the armour etc in comparison with other armour, but generally new good items enter the game at their highest price, crash during the first few days, possibly rise a bit back later again due to overreaction and then continue to drop slowly and gradually over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market price on investable items depends on investor expectations for the future. Investors are accustomed to new items being rare at first, and then quickly dropping in price as they enter the economy. If 3rd age items are entering the economy now at a slower rate than was expected, then investor expectations for the future rarity are adjusting upwards, and the price follows. I.e., if buyers had had a better understanding of the rarity of 3rd age drops upon release, then they probably would have followed a similar price curve as other new good items. They would have entered the game at a higher price, and then crashed. However, at those higher prices, people would be more willing to wait, so I believe the initial runup and succeeding crash would have been much less severe.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Point is, I'm not seeing any of that happening now (or I am just unable to observe that solely by looking at the forums - if so tell me) and I'm strongly wondering why? I see extremely few buying threads in the official forums for an item so new, so rare and so 'great'. There are next to no offers on existing selling threads either, which I find unusual with all the extraordinary claims about the armour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's very interesting. Perhaps more clues are done than are thought? Or perhaps people are just waiting for the inevitable crash, not realizing that crashes of new items are only inevitable if the item's rarity/usefullness are correctly predicted by the market? I find neither of these explanations implausible, but time will tell.

I agree with what you are saying they may be rare for the moment but noe for long.Oh yah waz up NS

Yeah it will drop, look at the dragon med, the drop rate is 1/16,000 so i've heard.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#-o

Yea, it's a soft cap, not a totally hard cap--but doesn't the fact that materials prices have remained fairly constant argue for the cap's efficacy?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well the fact that they remained pretty constant not, IMO. I'd have expected them to rise at least a bit if materials had been effected by the inflation throughout the years. The fact that they didn't / barely change at all makes me think they just haven't been effected at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As I said, the soft cap only weakens price effects (both upwards and downwards) as does the substition ability of high alching with other ways of training magic. I am really not going to believe the mechanism is so strong that it is able to sustain through major numbers of inflation. The calculation I gave above don't point that out either and the substition effect is not going to be that great without leading into price rises of those other materials as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still, if the cost per alch went up 100 per high alch, i think we'd see a very strong reduction in number of high alchs done.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I also disagree partly with this. I think this statement fails to observe that high alching is done only on items like yew longbows, steel plates, magic longbows, etc. The nature price is definately not the only factor in how much high alchs people do and, in fact, I believe it is by far the least significant factor in the whole scheme.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After all the production levels of strung yew long bows, steel plates are the ones who decide how many items there need to be high alched in the first place and I'm not so sure if the production of such items really depends much on the prices of their finished products.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are few good substitues for yew logs for fletching that could be used on a large scale. For smithing it would be even worse as there just are just no realistic alternatives to smithing steel plates at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, the investement potential of rares is more important than their popularity due to their expensive price, so the Veblen effect of rares is minimal.

 

 

 

But aren't the most expensive rares the wearable ones? That argues to me that the Veblen effect is very strong for rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hm. I think the fact that wearable rares are more expensive than the non-wearable ones is more because they have more 'use' (for as far as we can speak of 'use') as you can also wear them. On the other hand, you're right by saying that the most important reason people wear them is to show off and they can show off with the item because it's worth so much -> thus a Veblen effect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway what I mean to say is that the Veblen effect is not a very important reason for why they rise in price. I don't think the Veblen effect in a blue phat between when it was ~100mil and now that it is ~430mil changed much. Prices rise mostly because of inflation & population growth (long-term) and future expectancy (short/intermediate-term) - what we called 'faith' earlier.

Point is, I'm not seeing any of that happening now (or I am just unable to observe that solely by looking at the forums - if so tell me) and I'm strongly wondering why? I see extremely few buying threads in the official forums for an item so new, so rare and so 'great'. There are next to no offers on existing selling threads either, which I find unusual with all the extraordinary claims about the armour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think it's wrong to judge the demand on these through forum browsing. The Treasure Trail forums are much different than the Discontinued ones, and threads hit the second page within about 2 minutes.

I think it's wrong to judge the demand on these through forum browsing. The Treasure Trail forums are much different than the Discontinued ones, and threads hit the second page within about 2 minutes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That things move faster has little to do with how many buying / selling threads and (lack off) offers on the threads that I see. The amount of pages is still limited to 50 for both boards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If they were really in high demand you'd see people bidding against each other in third age armour threads - I'm not seeing that happening at all. In fact, I find this very typifying:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amish Pirate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26-Jan-2007 03:21:04

 

 

 

Bought it a while ago to use for staking.. I'm done with it now, so selling.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apparently some stakers did buy it, but are selling it now... Not good enough for staking?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still, rich, good and active fally world 2 merchants would probably be best informed about this all and may also know best where the prices of third age armour will be going in the near future.

There are few good substitues for yew logs for fletching that could be used on a large scale. For smithing it would be even worse as there just are just no realistic alternatives to smithing steel plates at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Iron is quite a good alterniative, slower but you can make money with it by making knifes and you don't need "expensive" coal for it. And, but people don't realize this, so it's hardly significant, gold with gauntlets is pretty good xp too.

 

 

 

I think the "normal" players will start with these when the nat/steel bar prices will increase hugely.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IMO the demand isn't very high because most of the items do harldy have any real use values. The only items worth buying stat wise are the kite, range hat and mage ammy. All the other items have stats wise better alternatives.

 

 

 

But I still wonder why the kite isn't good enough for staking.

Looks like rare prices have stopped the downward leak, and may actually be heading in a positive direction.

 

Prices may be at their peak right NOW, but I suspect that as people realize how expensive they are, they will soon surge in more and more clues, eventually untill 3rd age becomes as cheap as Dragon sets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The problem with your theory is that clues are not cost-effective, even with Third Age items at 150M apiece. I mean, do the math on it, if the odds of finding a 3rd Age item is 1 in 12,000, and a Clue takes on average 45 Minutes to complete (which is extremely fast, but we'll assume you're a very good Treasure finder), and there's approximately 10 Third Age Items, so you find one piece every 1,200 clues, then at 150M per piece, this works out to 150M every 900 Hours, or 166K per hour. You can make double that running Nature Runes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the only thing i find about your posts about clues is the time variants, ever since the addition of the emotes and strange things to wear... i never had a clue take 45 minutes... unless from your post i was mislead to believe it was to find&finish not just finish. i mean if you specifically time out from like when i read it to the time its done, i honestly would have to say unless i forgot something 30minutes is pushing it... like my friend val said his lvl 3s even with emotes are done in 15minutes. now im not disputing his accuracy on time, because im sure it can be done. and you say they made clues harder? ive never noticed that, i infact thought they got easier since zammy wizards are now in non-wilderness areas... perhaps i over look things seeing how im more advanced in quests then some? i even think you said clues are like 2 hours long? i dont even know if i dreamt that but, wow thats soo long. and now that i specifically thing about it, 2 hours just to find a clue doesnt seem accurate either, but hey thats me and i have bad luck, ive gone like 10 hours places without clues, and ive gone places in 10minutes ive gotten several clues. who is to say what is an average?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Once again, you people are comparing Third Age drop rates to items you find from monsters. Items that are dropped exclusively by clues are not going to follow the same price patterns because of the length of time it takes to complete a level 3 Clue. First of all, Clues are impossible to complete with a macroer, while monsters are surely not. Secondly, the average player takes well over 2 hours to complete just one level 3 Clue. If we are saying the drop rate on these items is 0.01% (which was quoted from a Jagex Mod), then it doesn't take a genius to realize how these items are by far the hardest to come by in the game.

According to R2 i am a master of lvl 3 clue solver \

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Solved it in 18 mins of which i used 2 mins at Canifis when i was suppose to be in Mort'ton. :evil:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's all i have to say, no kite from 3rd age.

Obviously the time between the moment that you get a clue, complete it, and get another one form the same monster can vary greatly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So it can be hard to establish an average with this...

The 3rd Age Platebody has lowered somewhat in value again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This could be blamed on the fact that barrows armor is still cheaper and better, as well as somewhat increased supply.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The other prices have roughly stayed the same all this time, and still no increase on the 3rd age amulet, which i suspected would happen after its mahoosive statboost.

wow the kite is more than the plate :shock:

 

 

 

although it does look awesom :D

I understand the rises in price for now, give it a year and those who really want them like crazy will probably have them and the prices will settle down.

they should have made lvl 4 clues, because now some lucky lvl 80 can get a 3rd age item and be insanely rich with no work done.

Level 4 clues?

 

 

 

Nah, these items are rare enough as it is (as well as the rarity of a lvl 3 clue)...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

so what if a handfull of insanely lucky low lvls manage to get an item...

 

 

 

would they realise its value?