Russia+S Ossetia+Abkhasia in a war against Georgia

2nd edit 9.8.2008. Just a while ago Abkhasia joined the front against Georgia. http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/28706

edit 9.8.2008. According to the president of Georgia it's now a war and not a conflict. Thus I decided to remove the question mark from the title.

For few months it's been more or less clear to anyone who has paid any attention on Russia that they might attack against Georgia. Many planes have been in Georgia's air, separatist areas of Georgia have been more active on looking for autonomy and there are few thousands of russian peacekeepers (with the permission of UN) in certain areas of Georgia.

Within last few days the military actions have however gotten out of hands. Some tens or hundreds (according to the source, the number of victims still seems to be unclear and rising) have already lost their lives. According to Saakasvili (president of Georgia) around 150 russian tanks have crossed the boarder today and 4 planes have been shot down. According to Russia's foreign ministry there's an ethnical cleaning going on at South Ossetia (one separatist area) and according to Medvedev they are doing anything to stop it. What I know of, no western sources have said a word about anything like that happening, however. So far at least certain military airports have been bombed which is a normal strategy when you're going to launch a full war towards an enemy.

The things are getting interesting. When Kosovo got its independence, Russia gave quite a straight ultimatum to Georgia: if they don't let the same happen to Abhasia and South Ossetia, Russia will make them to let them get what they want. According to few sources Russia has already given nationality to many south ossetians and are now using that as an excuse to defend "russians" in other countries,.

Georgia has been getting closer and closer to NATO within last few years. This hasn't pleased Kreml as Georgia is not only a boarder contry, it's also an important area for oil companies. USA has been defending Georgia and most likely they aren't going to let the tanks to roll to Tbilisi. Most likely an open war between Russia and USA won't happen, but this ain't gonna do good for their relations.

This military action is same time a straight note to other boarder countries that are planning to join NATO: be close of doing it and soon you will see the war on your own streets. During the statue issue we saw pretty much the same, except back in then Estonia was already a Nato country and Russia didn't want to take the risk back in then.

Hope this gets solved before civilian targets are under fire...

I have not seen the headlines that say that Russia has invaded Georgia but I have seen where they moved into South Ossetia which is a break away Georgian province that has had defacto independence and fights with the Georgian military.

The only thing I can say about this now that I have thought about this is that Russia can point at the US and the EU and say look at Kosovo. This is almost an exact reversal of the situations

Here is the back story:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Georgia-Russia_crisis

edit: you made it clear and were oddly specific, kudos, and now you may ignore my first statement #-o :lol:

Russia going to war with Georgia...plausible, but why? Makes no sense.

I have not seen the headlines that say that Russia has invaded Georgia but I have seen where they moved into South Ossetia which is a break away Georgian province that has had defacto independence and fights with the Georgian military.

Officially a war hasn't been declared yet (if things don't get solved fast, it will be a matter of days or like in Iraq war, it may not even do it. The ethnical cleanings Lavrov has been talking about might be the way to "justify" this war, no matter do we get proper proof of it happening or not.

The timing for this conflinct was well prepared. Russias has had "practices" just behind the boarder for months now and with olympic games and US presidential elections the time for a military conflict/war was perfect: the public interest is in other places at the moment.

The only thing I can say about this now that I have thought about this is that Russia can point at the US and the EU and say look at Kosovo. This is almost an exact reversal of the situations

There's a lot of differences but this has been the situation I've been afraid of since Kosovo. It's clear that the "new" Russia is not going to be our tool anymore like it was on Yeltsin's regime for example and it ain't gonna let things happen it doesn't like.

Russia going to war with Georgia...plausible, but why? Makes no sense.

- It's a vital area for the oil companies to control. Russia's economical rise (and everything related to it) are mainly the result of oil business.

- Power struggle against NATO and EU: look what happened in Kosovo, how NATO is getting to Russia's boarders and how USA is trying to put Russia between its fist and the wall. This is one way from Russia to show that they are back in business.

- Only thing Russia can lose is the public opinion, which however already is so badly against USA that during this moment (look for the upper chapter) it's pretty unlikely for them.

Georgia (alone) attacking Russia would make no sense, Russia attacking Georgia was only a matter of time.

Where is georgia i must ask

Where is georgia i must ask

Georgia, formerly the Republic of Georgia, is a transcontinental country partially in Eastern Europe and Southwest Asia in the Caucasus region. It is bordered to the north by the Russian Federation, to the east by Azerbaijan, to the west across the Black Sea by Ukraine, to the south by Armenia and to the southwest by Turkey.[

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_%28country%29

Azerbaijan's a nation? I did not know that.

Anyways, this sounds pretty bad. Hopefully it won't get out of hand. As you said, I'm sure it won't lead to a war between the US and Russia, but we'd still better hope it ends up okay.

Georgia has attacked South Ossetia, Georgia is currently gathering additional forces (100,000 men), Russia has nothing to do with the conflict. Attack was unexpected because it was supposed to be "peace in the whole world" due to the Olympic games but now I know why Georgia avoided signing a peace treaty with South Ossetia for so long. Civilians are hiding in the basements, many civilians are wounded, Georgian tanks are storming the city and city itself is damaged, hospital and the parliament building are completely destroyed.

Sources: I'm in Russia at the moment and it's on the news since yesterday.

Georgia has attacked South Ossetia, Georgia is currently gathering additional forces (100,000 men), Russia has nothing to do with the conflict.

Russia has driven approximately 150 tanks over the boarder and bombed military targets near the capital city. Russians have already taken into control many areas of Tshinvall which is the capital of South Ossetia. McCain has asked the safety concell of UN to "force" russian troops out of Georgia's soil. Pretty damn much action against a country that "has nothing do with the conflict".

 

 

 

I'd rather believe western new stations than Russian on this case. What we've seen in many cases (the statue conflict, presidential elections, Chechen wars, etc) they are far from being independend. This is the first sign of war so why would unindependent media be now "honest"? We already saw it before Iraq war that the selfcensor is a true problem even in independend medias.

 

 

 

If someone wants western news in english, here's one to start with

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm

The State?

J/k...

I think any war/battle/whatever is a bad thing. And the added bonus of straining Russia/US relations is also very bad.

Russia going to war with Georgia...plausible, but why? Makes no sense.

Can't you see where the world's politics is moving? It's Russia, China and India in one corner, with NATO and the EU in the other. China and Russia have been working closely in that area to prevent the spread of the EU's and US's economic and military influence.

I can't say I understand the background history to this dispute though, so I can't exactly comment. They were talking about it during the Olympics coverage when the Georgian team walked into the stadium, and Putin was smiling as though completely ignorant to the conflict.

I just hope it doesn't disturb the Games... they've already been dogged enough because of China's reputation with the world.

Georgia has attacked South Ossetia, Georgia is currently gathering additional forces (100,000 men), Russia has nothing to do with the conflict. Attack was unexpected because it was supposed to be "peace in the whole world" due to the Olympic games but now I know why Georgia avoided signing a peace treaty with South Ossetia for so long. Civilians are hiding in the basements, many civilians are wounded, Georgian tanks are storming the city and city itself is damaged, hospital and the parliament building are completely destroyed.

 

 

 

Sources: I'm in Russia at the moment and it's on the news since yesterday.

I would really doubt that source considering that American sources say that at the least Russia is actively involved. If the Russian military claims they have nothing to do with the conflict but most other sources say they are along with the whole civilians hiding in basements and being wounded stinks of propaganda

I just hope it doesn't disturb the Games... they've already been dogged enough because of China's reputation with the world.

It wasn't a coindence that the conflict was started the same day as the olympics. Russia had had practices just behind be boarder for months (which is a really long for a normal practice), they've prepared the homefield with their "chosen news" and with the olympics + USA's presidential elections this conflict got a better chances to cause virtually no organised opposition in the western countries.

Hopefully it gets resolved quickly. War's a very bad thing.

Georgia sounds like George, George infers George Bush, Russia + war + George bush = major conspiracy!

I just hope it doesn't disturb the Games... they've already been dogged enough because of China's reputation with the world.

 

 

 

It wasn't a coindence that the conflict was started the same day as the olympics. Russia had had practices just behind be boarder for months (which is a really long for a normal practice), they've prepared the homefield with their "chosen news" and with the olympics + USA's presidential elections this conflict got a better chances to cause virtually no organised opposition in the western countries.

Maybe so, however, forgive me if I'm wrong, but it was the Georgians who bombarded the provincial capital with artillery and killed Russian peacekeepers first, yes?

You're making it sound like the peacekeepers were really operating as hidden spies, infiltrating Georgian territories in anticipation of the coming Russian invasion. It's quite clearly not that.

Besides, the US elections count for little. Presume the US is immobilised from diplomacy whilst the election campaigns are going on. That still leaves NATO, the UN and the EU.

Frankly, I'm taking this view. If the Kosovans are allowed to declare autonomy from Serbia, why isn't South Ossetia allowed to declare autonomy from Georgia? I don't see how Russia being S. Ossetia's ally makes any difference in principle. This whole story reeks of the same type of pro-Western criticism which is currently being blasted at China. And I don't really buy into it.

Yes, I heard something like that. I expected it to be dealt with after the 10.00 coffe break though.

Maybe so, however, forgive me if I'm wrong, but it was the Georgians who bombarded the provincial capital with artillery and killed Russian peacekeepers first, yes?

Russia has been arming the rebels for a while now and according to some sources even over 1400 civilians have died in the conflict. If the russian style of bombing civilian targets like Kakha Lomaina (secretary of the Georgian safety councell) said is the way to react towards accidents in a battlefield (guess that's the right word for the situation in South Ossetia and its rebels. Should Finland for example go to war when our peacekeepers die in the battlefields somewhere else?

You're making it sound like the peacekeepers were really operating as hidden spies, infiltrating Georgian territories in anticipation of the coming Russian invasion. It's quite clearly not that.

I already stated in the beginning of the topic that they were there with the permission of UN. If that makes it sound like that, I'm sorry. Btw in 2006 Georgia wanted international peacekeepers instead of Russians.

Besides, the US elections count for little. Presume the US is immobilised from diplomacy whilst the election campaigns are going on. That still leaves NATO, the UN and the EU.

The point is to drag the publicity out of Georgia. Every word said about the (upcoming) war is a bad thing for Russia and the more the media goes into Obama-McCain, the better chances there are for them to get out of it without the same kind of hassle Iraq for example has caused to USA.

Frankly, I'm taking this view. If the Kosovans are allowed to declare autonomy from Serbia, why isn't South Ossetia allowed to declare autonomy from Georgia? I don't see how Russia being S. Ossetia's ally makes any difference in principle. This whole story reeks of the same type of pro-Western criticism which is currently being blasted at China. And I don't really buy into it.

Ethnically Kosovo wasn't part of Serbia. However s-ossetians are georgians even when Russia prints them new passports as quickly as they can. Also how many tanks were send to Serbia when Kosovo declared its autonomy? How many civilians were killed by foreign forces? When Kosovo declared their independency, they got a nice list of countries accepting it. When South Ossetia declared theirs, not even Russia accepted it.

Also from Russia's point there a lot more in stake that it didn't just happen due few peacekeepers or the will to help one segment of people get their independence.

edit: At least at the moment all the "important" georgian websites starting from the presidential, govermental and policy sites are down. Russia already had this kind weboffensives during the statue conflict.

The State?

 

 

 

J/k...

 

 

 

I think any war/battle/whatever is a bad thing. And the added bonus of straining Russia/US relations is also very bad.

When I saw the heading on CNN this morning, I honestly thought it was the state. I realized it was the country when they showed the president of Georgia

The State?

 

 

 

J/k...

 

 

 

I think any war/battle/whatever is a bad thing. And the added bonus of straining Russia/US relations is also very bad.

 

 

 

When I saw the heading on CNN this morning, I honestly thought it was the state. I realized it was the country when they showed the president of Georgia

I'm glad I'm not the only one who watches CNN ever morning :thumbsup: The best [bleep]ing news team ever...oh wait that's Jon Stewart..

Maybe so, however, forgive me if I'm wrong, but it was the Georgians who bombarded the provincial capital with artillery and killed Russian peacekeepers first, yes?

 

 

 

Russia has been arming the rebels for a while now and according to some sources even over 1400 civilians have died in the conflict. If the russian style of bombing civilian targets like Kakha Lomaina (secretary of the Georgian safety councell) said is the way to react towards accidents in a battlefield (guess that's the right word for the situation in South Ossetia and its rebels. Should Finland for example go to war when our peacekeepers die in the battlefields somewhere else?

I think you know full well the issue runs much deeper than a few peacekeepers dying.

Ethnically Kosovo wasn't part of Serbia. However s-ossetians are georgians even when Russia prints them new passports as quickly as they can.

...Your point?

S. Ossetia had an unofficial referendum on independence just two years ago. The majority wanted autonomy. What does that have to do with ethnicity (which actually depends on whether people choose to associate themselves with the country they live in anyway. I don't call my British, for instance, thus my ethnicity isn't British)?

Also how many tanks were send to Serbia when Kosovo declared its autonomy? How many civilians were killed by foreign forces?

Russia has proclaimed the Ossetians' right to independence. This diplomatically gives them a right to declare war against any country which prevents that independence. Serbia didn't have this luxury since Kosovo was a Serbian territory to being with.

When Kosovo declared their independency, they got a nice list of countries accepting it. When South Ossetia declared theirs, not even Russia accepted it.

Russia doesn't accept it, but goes to war to defend its autonomy? That appears to be somewhat illogical.

Can I ask, what is wrong with Russia supporting a territory in its struggle for independence? I bet if Russia marched into Tibet, no one would have problem. Is it exactly what the Serbs said when Kosovo declared independence - we all talk about Zimbabwe and China, but no one really gives a damn about the Caucasus. It's just seen as Russia's backyard to organise, yet whenever they try, they get blasted for trying to establish itself as a superpower again.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNew ... 3420080808

Things seem to be getting serious out there.

Russia is attacking the US?! How come this isn't front page news?!

Russia is attacking the US?! How come this isn't front page news?!

Was this sarcasm or do you engage in the activity of "selective reading"?

I think you know full well the issue runs much deeper than a few peacekeepers dying.

Exactly, so why to bring up the point of them duying?

...Your point?

My point is that morally the independence of Kosovo was a lot easier to accept than this one is. Nothing related the kosovians to Serbia but south ossetians are related to Georgia. Technically this is the same thing as New York trying to become an independent area.

Russia has proclaimed the Ossetians' right to independence. This diplomatically gives them a right to declare war against any country which prevents that independence. Serbia didn't have this luxury since Kosovo was a Serbian territory to being with.

Excuse me? If certain people in certain area want independency, it's ok for a lot bigger neightbour to roll their tanks over the boarder?

Russia doesn't accept it, but goes to war to defend its autonomy? That appears to be somewhat illogical.

No country accepted it when they declared it. Not even Russia.

Can I ask, what is wrong with Russia supporting a territory in its struggle for independence? I bet if Russia marched into Tibet, no one would have problem. Is it exactly what the Serbs said when Kosovo declared independence - we all talk about Zimbabwe and China, but no one really gives a damn about the Caucasus. It's just seen as Russia's backyard to organise, yet whenever they try, they get blasted for trying to establish itself as a superpower again.

Lets see....

- This case is a lot bigger than just independency. Russia got a lot larger stakes than just growing up their territory.

- This new aggression is same time a clear note to other boarder countries and thus affecting into their international policy more than any talks in cabins. China and Zimbabwe are on a different role at their conflict areas.

- I personally rather believe in Sweden building nuclear weapons than Russia marching to free Tibet without any plans to get advantages of it. You know it too that your scenario got almost zero chances to happen or when it does, this planet is in so big chaos that it doesn't even matter.