"Another" Economic Report

[TheAncient]

God, it seems like I'm getting a rep for being so econ-obsessed :XD:

 

 

 

As I've been enjoying my RS hiatus for college (SATs in 2 weeks... Apps due in 1.5 months for early decision :shock:), I've been keeping my eye on the everchanging RS market... and yes, I do take economics.

 

 

 

Here are some quick observations, details in parentheses, with rationale provided in italics:

 

-GWD items had a sudden drop in price, will drop more and eventually stabilize [EDIT] (---); the prices were initially over-inflated and did not match demand. Furthermore, some items perceived as rare drops might not actually be rare (Bandos), and supply is high.

 

-DFS has been going up (up 5M in a couple of weeks); out of all the new items it is the most solid of investments as it actually useful and practical to use as a shield.

 

-Party hats are rising, probably will do so for a while (My white rose 75M in 2 months); GWD and Mith dragons created increased the population of extremely rich (whoever was lucky to get drops), and thus increased the demand of hats. Furthermore, TT 3A, the new 3A, and the godswords are all either not in high enough demand/price range does not compete with party hats, so they have little effect

 

-Barrows is crashing massively (Guthan is around 7.4M?, Verac is under 4M); one explanation is that people are selling their Barrows to get GWD stuff, another is that demand for these items has simply gone down due to alternatives such as Bandos.

 

-Small rares have been staying the same (Santas are sticking to about 20-22M); considering there hasn't been any massive influx of sellers (people are presumably holding their SRares, SRares are still considered scarce), this market has been stable. There isn't any sign of an increasing demand base, so I doubt they will go up significantly, even in the next year/halfyear.

 

 

 

Implications (take this with a grain of salt):

 

-Buy Party Hats.

 

-Buy or hold DFS, it has potential to go up but 30M will seem like a limit

 

-Buy or hold GWD items, the market seems unclear

 

-Hold Barrows, they probably won't fall any more and have reached a stopping point. In any case Barrows is more useful as an item than in monetary value.

 

-Hold small rares.

 

 

 

Ramblings \

[BBC3]

theres not much of a discussion if you already explained everything :|

[TheAncient]

theres not much of a discussion if you already explained everything :|

 

 

 

Well, there's nothing wrong with disagreeing with me :)

 

 

 

I'm just putting it out there, it's not the definite "right" explanation(s).

 

 

 

Also economic insight is always helpful in RS, it's something that the community should be aware of.

[Tbfgraphx14]

Hm..I wonder what it will be like in 8-9 months, I might start up again around then. :-k

 

 

 

So far it sounds good.

[Guest ickdeep2]

Prices go up if supplies is low

 

 

 

Prices go down if supplies are high

 

 

Its Called Supply & Demand

[sithlord_man]

well i'll have to keep my torags then...

[radmix]

:? pruples jumped from 163-166m to like 180-183m in like 1 week :? was so close into getting it as well :( ahh well guess ill stop

[meili]

What about other rares like easter eggs, masks, santas? I guess they fluctuate a lot but they will continue to increase in price, IMHO.

[Rebdragon]

Prices go up if supplies is low

 

 

 

Prices go down if supplies are high

 

 

Its Called Supply & Demand

 

No, prices go up if demand is higher than supply, not if supply is low. If there isn't much of an item, but no one wants it, why would prices rise?

 

 

 

In the same manner, prices don't go up if supply is relatively high, but if there is a surplus. It drops to try and reach equilibrium.

 

 

 

Geez, if you're going to patronize him about proclaiming himself an expert on economics just because he understands supply and demand, at least do it right.

 

 

 

Anyways, good luck on your college search, I'm going Early Decision as well this year (as well as taking the SAT's the same date as you), so good luck :thumbsup: .

[Drakrono]

Whats a DFS?

[TheAncient]

Whats a DFS?

 

Dragonfire Shield, best shield in game, and arguably one of the most useful/versatile pieces of equipment

 

 

 

Prices go up if supplies is low

 

 

 

Prices go down if supplies are high

 

 

Its Called Supply & Demand

 

No, prices go up if demand is higher than supply, not if supply is low. If there isn't much of an item, but no one wants it, why would prices rise?

 

 

 

In the same manner, prices don't go up if supply is relatively high, but if there is a surplus. It drops to try and reach equilibrium.

 

 

 

Geez, if you're going to patronize him about proclaiming himself an expert on economics just because he understands supply and demand, at least do it right.

 

 

 

Anyways, good luck on your college search, I'm going Early Decision as well this year (as well as taking the SAT's the same date as you), so good luck :thumbsup: .

 

 

 

Let's hope we both dont apply to the same college :XD:

 

 

 

Yeah, it really is more complex than just "increased supply leads to decreased price" and "increased demand leads to increased price"... rarity and scarcity are two different concepts and aren't interchangeable. For example, my Bronze Javelin p++ may be rare, but it isn't scarce and thus the price isn't high.

 

 

 

Also, price is a lagging indicator of supply and demand fluctuations; it may take a couple of days or even weeks for a change to be reflected in the markets (at least for the RS economy, since we don't have any accounting system).

[Olbritishchap]

interesting, good thing i stopped barrowing, what with the crashing and all. grats on making 75m with that p hat :P

[doogsidoof]

good job on the report, can we expect one in the next half year?

[InkofDeath]

It's nice to receive reports every 4-5 months about the economy in RuneScape. My predictions were a little off, I thought phats would increase slightly less, and small rares would start rising because of the nearing of the christmas holidays.

 

 

 

Ah, well. Good Job mate. 8-)

[Dragonlordjl]

Bandos stuff is on the rise again. There is still a high demand for it; the reason it fell so sharply was the "safe spot" glitch, which was fixed last night.

[Umega]

If the DFS had stayed the same price (24-5m) 2 months ago I would of got one by now.

 

But yes, they are probably going up because it is a useful - if not the best - shield.

[badlilmonkey]

dude, you are my role model!!! I your economic reports! keep it up

 

! i recently took a summer course on econ. so i might be going AP Economics in my junior year :D I find it thrilling to read economic reports other than the real world : much more understandable in a way :XD:

 

 

 

keep it up

[Randox]

It's nice to know what the big expensive items are doing. I'd cheack prices myself but I just can't be bothered (and I know that dosent make much sense :? ). One of these every 3 months would be neat :D

[Beest1942]

I always love your reports every now and then :)

 

 

 

You were completely right on all the issues, amazing :

[xpx]

you may know a lot about the economy, but not much about why the bandos stuff fell so low initially. The problem was the safe spot, so people could solo up to 25 bandos bosses in one trip. Now that jagex took the spot out, the bandos stuff has all gone up by 2-6m, and will eventually stabilize at about 30m for chest, 15m for tassets and 50m for godsword.(all GWD bosses are now team ONLY)

[oropher]

I'm hoping small rares will go up as well. I'm buying some anyway, and holding on to them. :)

[eskemo]

May I make a suggestion?

 

 

 

I find your reports to be pretty interesting, and I think its fair to say that alot of the other tip.it'ers do aswell.

 

 

 

So, would you be interested in doing a more formal and/or in-depth report on a regular basis (I'm no expert in economics, so I don't know what sort of time frame would be relevant. 1 month? 3 months? 2 weeks?!) and keep it in a place where everyone can see it? (ie; a website, rather than a simple post on the forum, which can be lost after being bumped away.)

 

 

 

I for one, would be willing to give you some (free, of course) professional hosting if you think this idea holds some merit.

 

 

 

If anyone else has any thoughts about this, or have any additions to my idea, or reckon its utter bollocks, feel free to let me know.

 

 

 

Many thanks, and keep up the good work. Good luck on College too mate =]

 

 

 

-Esk

[blosssom2581]

I took econ for my public exam (HKCEE) as well, oh wait, who cares?

 

 

 

It's right for you to attempt to use the concepts to explain matters, but they are not always accurate, I'm afraid

 

 

 

As said, there is NO accounting system in Runescape, meaning that price response may be lagging behind the change in supply & demand

 

 

 

Yet, i believe this is a reason-based guess, and may be accurate if we hold other factors constant. I'm afraid that the price may change again once there is new items coming out (I think there will be another update before the end of September, and another in early October). Substitutes may appear and your prediction may not be reflected in later changes

 

 

 

But anyway, a nice, logic based deduction. Merchants should take it as a reference. (No guarantee, of course!)

[backstreetboy]

Cool topic, looking forward to morwe of this kind.

[qeltar]

Your comments seem pretty reasonable. I despise rares and won't touch them but a few comments on the others...

 

 

 

 

-GWD items had a sudden drop in price, will drop more and eventually stabilize (Bandos plate fell 5M, Tassets fell 3M); the prices were initially over-inflated and did not match demand. Furthermore, some items perceived as rare drops might not actually be rare (Bandos), and supply is high.

 

 

A safe spot was discovered at the Bandos bosses, and that's why prices dropped. It's been taken out so that may reverse itself.

 

 

 

Godsword prices seem to be mostly stable, and are actually still going up for the two better / more rare versions (Sara and Armadyl).

 

 

-DFS has been going up (up 5M in a couple of weeks); out of all the new items it is the most solid of investments as it actually useful and practical to use as a shield.

 

 

Great item, and the throngs of people killing thousands of black dragons looking for a visage are getting bored and moving on to other things.

 

 

-Barrows is crashing massively (Guthan is around 7.4M?, Verac is under 4M); one explanation is that people are selling their Barrows to get GWD stuff, another is that demand for these items has simply gone down due to alternatives such as Bandos.

 

 

IMO the main reason is oversupply. Barrows is just too easy, and has been for some time.

 

 

 

~q