3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[JeRambo]

I decided to not panic and held on to my purple. Doesn't really matter, I bought it over a year ago for under 300m.

 

Making lots of cash at the moment @ TDs so hopefully i can buy a few more partyhats and quit :)

[Elf Spice]

I hope I can get my hands on a white phat. It's been one of my endgame goals and I think I'll go F2P after getting one. Does anyone else think that free staking may increase the demand for phats?

[Star_Fox]

I hope I can get my hands on a white phat. It's been one of my endgame goals and I think I'll go F2P after getting one. Does anyone else think that free staking my increase the demand for phats?

 

 

Yes. With staking, people are just going to make more money again and then spend money buying all the rares they can imagine. I see it in like every

damn staking blogs I watch. [bleep]. I even remember when partyhats were dropping back in early 2008 BECAUSE staking was gone.

[Pinata]

 

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: GOD I LOVE YOU GE

 

Haha, I knew those PHATS weren't worth 1b GP, just since a minority of people owned them, they can put any price they want on them, GF greedy manipulators/merchers

[JeremyM]

Kinda wanna buy a party hat now... i have 435mish cash and a red h'ween + fury, ranger boots and some other items. Anyone got some advice as to what I should offer/what could cash + mask get me?

[green9090]

Kinda wanna buy a party hat now... i have 435mish cash and a red h'ween + fury, ranger boots and some other items. Anyone got some advice as to what I should offer/what could cash + mask get me?

Pretty sure cash + mask could get you a green. If you wait, MAYBE a red, but that's iffy.

[xpx]

Haha, I knew those PHATS weren't worth 1b GP, just since a minority of people owned them, they can put any price they want on them, GF greedy manipulators/merchers

Clearly a reply by someone unaware of the market. Do you think this crash would be happening if free trade wasn't coming? Kind of hard to put 1 and 1 together...

[bedman]

Red can be bought max GE now pretty easily.

[bedman]

So what do people here think about phat prices after free trade? On the RSOF, the predictions have been going down down down. First people thought 500m purple 550 yellow, etc... Now it's 350 purple 400 yellow etc... Are people just losing trust, or is this really the big dip for phats? I personally have troubles predicting how much cash there actually is around, and whether the big time merchers who had lots of phats, are gonna rebuy them, or gonna leave them for good (like they left them for a year or so when the GE came out)

[Star_Fox]

^ This is all just the work of panic. Some evidence that are supporting this panic is the thought of stakers with 100s of phat returning to the game.

Not true. This will hardly have any effect on the phat market since most stakers either left their phats by selling them, giving it away after "quitting"

or rwt'ed them away. There are stakers that will return with phats, billions of GP, barrow sets, minor rares, etc. Phats are merely the fraction of the

whole population

The other claim might be because phats no longer have street value. True, but this still doesn't mean their absolutely worthless. All this means is

that phats can finally be sold for their true prices according to how much people are willing to pay for. If anything, free trading will increase demand

for partyhats. Since stakers make more money, yielding more demand to buy rares and taking advantage of investing in them. With more

people staking GP, more people want discontinued/expensive items.

[Punitive_D]

So what do people here think about phat prices after free trade? On the RSOF, the predictions have been going down down down. First people thought 500m purple 550 yellow, etc... Now it's 350 purple 400 yellow etc... Are people just losing trust, or is this really the big dip for phats? I personally have troubles predicting how much cash there actually is around, and whether the big time merchers who had lots of phats, are gonna rebuy them, or gonna leave them for good (like they left them for a year or so when the GE came out)

 

It seems clear that for a while here, partyhats are going to be very buyable. 1B seems to buy a white now -- that was red's price very recently. As long as the lower hats are in freefall, I expect all to follow them down. How far is anyone's guess.

[Danqazmlp]

It's so unpredictable I actually think it's pointless even trying. There are too many new factors to work into it. For example, How many people are waiting it out? How many people will suddenly flood the market? How many phats are there waiting to be sold?

 

We could have the crash continuing into the 200m range where Phats were a few years back, or they could rebound back up higher than their Current G.E Prices, it's just way too hard to predict.

 

All I hope is that the gap between them is around 50-100m per phat :shades:

[bedman]

I think a lot will depend on the merchers (like always). When the GE came out, they dumped their phats, and moved onto third age. Now, free trade is coming out, and obviously they dumped their hats. Will they move to the Nex armours? Would make sense to bring up those prices for a few months, while phats crash further, and then change to phats again (so yeah, history repeat more or less). I'm just not sure whether there is enough of those Nex armour to suck up all that merch money.

 

note:I think the fact that things can't be totally bought out anymore won't change too much. Merchers still need to pour their money into something (bringing up those prices), right?

[green9090]

For a little while after free trade, partyhats will be very low, which will panic even more people and get more partyhats sold.

 

However, as soon as all the people panicking have ditched their partyhats for insanely cheap, wealthy merchants will be buying them all out again and their prices will rise. I'm not sure exactly how high, but we're definitely going to see a dip and then a spike following free trade.

[bedman]

Hmm, I think it's in the merchers's favour to just let the panic go wild, and wait long enough to rebuy. I bought a red right now for max, and I'm still debating. I don't wanna end up being unable to buy it when white isn't crashing and people start buying up the other hats again. But how likely is this scenario :o

[Punitive_D]

It's so unpredictable I actually think it's pointless even trying. There are too many new factors to work into it. For example, How many people are waiting it out? How many people will suddenly flood the market? How many phats are there waiting to be sold?

 

We could have the crash continuing into the 200m range where Phats were a few years back, or they could rebound back up higher than their Current G.E Prices, it's just way too hard to predict.

 

All I hope is that the gap between them is around 50-100m per phat :shades:

 

The great thing about free trade is that we don't have to wait forever to find out where a crash will end. These things can crash straight down starting February 1. I expect all hats to continue to crash at least until that time. After that, we'll just have to see. There is some mighty tasty (and useful) armor out there, and some partyhat money may go to that. But one way or the other, we'll all know what partyhats are "really" worth less than two weeks from now. If a blue becomes buyable for 1B, I'd be mighty tempted.

[Danqazmlp]

The problem is that it's much harder to force the price up with free trade. Prices can eb and flow much more freely, hourly. It will be a strange time indeed.

 

One thing I'm wondering, will the main trade hub stay at the G.e or do you expect people to migrate back to falador?

[Punitive_D]

Hmm, I think it's in the merchers's favour to just let the panic go wild, and wait long enough to rebuy. I bought a red right now for max, and I'm still debating. I don't wanna end up being unable to buy it when white isn't crashing and people start buying up the other hats again. But how likely is this scenario :o

 

 

Personally, I see nearly zero chance of any partyhat "rising" until free trade arrives. (Of course, I'm talking "street," not GE price.)

[green9090]

Hmm, I think it's in the merchers's favour to just let the panic go wild, and wait long enough to rebuy. I bought a red right now for max, and I'm still debating. I don't wanna end up being unable to buy it when white isn't crashing and people start buying up the other hats again. But how likely is this scenario :o

:wall: I keep telling people it's stupid to buy hats when they get to max and over and over again they come in all "WOOO I BOUGHT X HAT FOR MAX IN GE THANK YOU JAGEX" and then watch in horror as it does exactly what every previous hat has done and crashes to hell.

 

My recommendation is to sell that hat in the GE for whatever you can get in 4 hours before it turns into junk. We still have an entire week until free trade and white has already dropped to being about even with divine (which was a green a few weeks ago). White is already crashing HARD, it just hasn't quite made it to the GE yet.

[la la la]

:wall: I keep telling people it's stupid to buy hats when they get to max and over and over again they come in all "WOOO I BOUGHT X HAT FOR MAX IN GE THANK YOU JAGEX" and then watch in horror as it does exactly what every previous hat has done and crashes to hell.

 

My recommendation is to sell that hat in the GE for whatever you can get in 4 hours before it turns into junk. We still have an entire week until free trade and white has already dropped to being about even with divine (which was a green a few weeks ago). White is already crashing HARD, it just hasn't quite made it to the GE yet.

Or people will realize it's all panic, partyhats will rise again, and everyone who panic sold will be screwed.

 

Personally, I have no temptation to sell my white.

[green9090]

The problem is that it's much harder to force the price up with free trade. Prices can eb and flow much more freely, hourly. It will be a strange time indeed.

 

One thing I'm wondering, will the main trade hub stay at the G.e or do you expect people to migrate back to falador?

True, but that doesn't mean massive merchant interest in an item with restricted supply like phats won't be able to drive their price right back up. Phats are also still a universal symbol of wealth and power in Runescape, and that prestige isn't going to go away just because they don't have "street" anymore. There's a demand for them, and they're a useful merchanting tool. They'll recover.

 

GE will almost certainly stay the main trading hub just because you can easily deal with your GE merches and your face to face merches simultaneously. Though to be honest, now that you can plug any price you want into the GE, face to face trading will have very little utility unless you're doing something like selling overpriced food and pots at the mage bank.

[bedman]

Lol, I read your comment don't worry. I'm just scared to be left behind when white isn't crashing and people start buying the lower hats :-). And trust me, there's A LOT of people waiting for white to crash to get one. If it doesn't, you'll see them flocking to red very quicly.

[Punitive_D]

Hmm, I think it's in the merchers's favour to just let the panic go wild, and wait long enough to rebuy. I bought a red right now for max, and I'm still debating. I don't wanna end up being unable to buy it when white isn't crashing and people start buying up the other hats again. But how likely is this scenario :o

:wall: I keep telling people it's stupid to buy hats when they get to max and over and over again they come in all "WOOO I BOUGHT X HAT FOR MAX IN GE THANK YOU JAGEX" and then watch in horror as it does exactly what every previous hat has done and crashes to hell.

 

My recommendation is to sell that hat in the GE for whatever you can get in 4 hours before it turns into junk. We still have an entire week until free trade and white has already dropped to being about even with divine (which was a green a few weeks ago). White is already crashing HARD, it just hasn't quite made it to the GE yet.

 

This makes a lot of sense. One problem with the higher partyhats for the next week or so is that there's no massive junk left -- basically the smaller rares is all. So if you want to sell a white, you have to buy some smaller rares to sell with it. But there's very little real money to be made doing that. The minute red hits mid GE, just watch the white owners start selling max GE.

[bedman]

I put my red hat in for max GE. Didn't sell for 30 seconds. Tried 566 mill and sold for max instantly.

[Pinata]

Haha, I knew those PHATS weren't worth 1b GP, just since a minority of people owned them, they can put any price they want on them, GF greedy manipulators/merchers

Clearly a reply by someone unaware of the market. Do you think this crash would be happening if free trade wasn't coming? Kind of hard to put 1 and 1 together...

 

I was just saying that 10b street price for a Blue Phat is ridiculous and was only that much because the lack of the phat price being a to fluctuate. Which led to hoarders/manipulators, basically Phats were like a never ending manipulation item, because they updated so slowly and had limited quantity. Also, considering it would be impossible to trade 10B GP for a blue phat with or without the trade limit. If there wasn't free trade they would most likely still be rising, and of course they'll always be rising, but on a free market, I don't think a blue Phat rareness has achieved 10B.