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3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion


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Does anyone know what caused the sudden crash in price of the spirit sheilds/ phats (other rares also I guess)

Sold my ely for Virtus a few days before this happened, glad I did!

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The way I see it, rares were in a pretty big bubble since FT came back because the massive volumes of bots drove raw material prices into the ground. It had to burst eventually, and as more and more bot companies essentially give up (or push back release dates indefinitely), raw prices just keep going up (both for training, and investment opportunities).

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Does anyone know what caused the sudden crash in price of the spirit sheilds/ phats (other rares also I guess)

Sold my ely for Virtus a few days before this happened, glad I did!

 

The removal of bots -> Less gp in game, more expensive raw materials -> Less demand for rares/people start selling rares.

 

Also the removal of dicing means the amount of new people that suddenly have a huge amount of wealth to spend on things has gone down.

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Does anyone know what caused the sudden crash in price of the spirit sheilds/ phats (other rares also I guess)

Sold my ely for Virtus a few days before this happened, glad I did!

 

The removal of bots -> Less gp in game, more expensive raw materials -> Less demand for rares/people start selling rares.

 

Also the removal of dicing means the amount of new people that suddenly have a huge amount of wealth to spend on things has gone down.

Now they can go and put their money toward a 50-50 bet staking instead of 60-40. Why people diced to begin with is beyond me. Even DD was [bleep]ing stupid - take that money to duely and keep the extra 10%... Dumb people.

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Does anyone know what caused the sudden crash in price of the spirit sheilds/ phats (other rares also I guess)

Sold my ely for Virtus a few days before this happened, glad I did!

 

The removal of bots -> Less gp in game, more expensive raw materials -> Less demand for rares/people start selling rares.

 

Also the removal of dicing means the amount of new people that suddenly have a huge amount of wealth to spend on things has gone down.

Now they can go and put their money toward a 50-50 bet staking instead of 60-40. Why people diced to begin with is beyond me. Even DD was [bleep]ing stupid - take that money to duely and keep the extra 10%... Dumb people.

Imo staking is only good if you have 99att/def/str/hp. Which takes awhile to get for most players. That's probably why so many people diced, rarely I saw 138s dicing and if they were it was hosting.

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Does anyone know what caused the sudden crash in price of the spirit sheilds/ phats (other rares also I guess)

Sold my ely for Virtus a few days before this happened, glad I did!

 

The removal of bots -> Less gp in game, more expensive raw materials -> Less demand for rares/people start selling rares.

 

Also the removal of dicing means the amount of new people that suddenly have a huge amount of wealth to spend on things has gone down.

Now they can go and put their money toward a 50-50 bet staking instead of 60-40. Why people diced to begin with is beyond me. Even DD was [bleep]ing stupid - take that money to duely and keep the extra 10%... Dumb people.

that is pretty much my exact view as well, even if you don't have max stats, either go max and then stake rather than spending all your time dicing, or just stake people with similar stats (there ARE people with a large range of levels to stake with at duel arena).

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Does anyone know what caused the sudden crash in price of the spirit sheilds/ phats (other rares also I guess)

Sold my ely for Virtus a few days before this happened, glad I did!

 

The removal of bots -> Less gp in game, more expensive raw materials -> Less demand for rares/people start selling rares.

 

Also the removal of dicing means the amount of new people that suddenly have a huge amount of wealth to spend on things has gone down.

 

Less bots =/= Less gp. Less bots = less raw materials. Amount of GP in the game still the same. What matters now is the GP distribution. Now that there are significantly less raw materials on the market, and the volume of rares as we know will only decline, the GP distribution on items affect prices greatly.

 

Right now, due to bot nuke, prices on raw materials are rising because of people wishing to train buyables or invest, selling off their rares. In this case GP is being distributed more on raw materials, less on rares.

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Does anyone know what caused the sudden crash in price of the spirit sheilds/ phats (other rares also I guess)

Sold my ely for Virtus a few days before this happened, glad I did!

 

The removal of bots -> Less gp in game, more expensive raw materials -> Less demand for rares/people start selling rares.

 

Also the removal of dicing means the amount of new people that suddenly have a huge amount of wealth to spend on things has gone down.

 

Less bots =/= Less gp. Less bots = less raw materials. Amount of GP in the game still the same. What matters now is the GP distribution. Now that there are significantly less raw materials on the market, and the volume of rares as we know will only decline, the GP distribution on items affect prices greatly.

 

Right now, due to bot nuke, prices on raw materials are rising because of people wishing to train buyables or invest, selling off their rares. In this case GP is being distributed more on raw materials, less on rares.

So basically, if I'm understanding this correctly, there's the same amount of gp but more of it is being spent on raw materials. It's like in real life when inflation drives up the prices on everything but your salary doesn't go up. It's not that there's less money going around, it just doesn't go as far so there's less disposable cash to spend on things like rares.

 

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If, statistically, it makes no sense for you to start out your sentence with "statistically, it makes no sense for...", then why did you?

 

I hope you explain that.

 

To illustrate my point through intentional absurdity. That point being: Statistics are the study of using limited data samples to approximate the probability distribution of a data set across its domain. Neither of our sentences mentioned any method of obtaining limited data samples, so if any math had been done in either of our sentences, it would have been "probabilistically speaking", but since such math did not occur it should have just been "Logically speaking,", except he was wrong in his logic as well.

 

Returning to being on point, the reason phat sightings went up was the same reason that their price went up...dicers spent bills to buy them from merchants who had hundreds of sets and couldn't wear them all at the same time, because there was a perception that wearing a phat made you a more attractive host for random gamblers, creating a new distribution of phats in which sightings were more common. Now that dicing is banned, the items most prized by hosts, phats and spirit shields, are crashing. It was my perception that torva/pernix/virtus, although valuable, were less used by hosts in this way, as they were slightly less recognizable and hosts seemed to usually just match the phat with their body/legs. Obviously, the raw material/rare dichotomy changing with the bot removal has also impacted prices, but this additional effect on phats/spirit shields is why they dropped a greater percentage than other high priced items. (which is what I'm hearing, I don't actually know the value of all the rares, but that's the impression I've received here)

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So is everything crashing :ohnoes: ?

 

Fell for one of those too good to be true scams :angry:

 

Sold a Santa for Virtus robe top + 5m, 20m to me, so I accepted :wall:

 

Virtus top doesn't sell...

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what... Pernix and virtus are crashing really badly... no idea about torva...

 

EDIT: Pernix body still not selling for 450... Guess I'm holding for now

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My livestream- Currently: Offline :(

Offical Harpy Therapist of the Mad

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Barrows drops: Dharok's helm x2, Guthan's helm, Ahrim's top, Hood and skirt, Torag's hammers, Karils skirt, Karil's top, Torag's helm, Verac's skirt, Verac's Flail, Dharok's Platebody.

Dag kings drops: Lost count! :wall:

4k+ Glacors, 7 Ragefires, 4 Steadfasts, 4 Glaivens, 400+ shards![/hide]

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SPOLI Index

 

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I recently published the Street Prices of Luxury Items Index.

 

It contains daily updates on street prices of all the items in this thread.

It's found on XPW (I can't publish graphs on TIF because I don't have admin powers here).

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Ever wanted to find street prices of RS items? Check out the SPOLI Index

 

Nex Drops: Pernix Cowl, Pernix Chaps, Torva Helm, Torva Platebody, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Chaps, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Torva Platelegs, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Chaps, Virtus Robe Legs, Zaryte Bow, Virtus Mask, Torva Legs, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Virtus Robe Top, Zaryte Bow, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Virtus Robe Top, Torva Platelegs, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Body, Torva Platelegs, Torva Platelegs, Virtus Robe Top

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although a nice effort the rsof post is going to be much more constant updated, + it has people posting recent price updates 24/7.

All rares and nex/ss have their own threads under item discussion.

Check it out, huge amount of effort has gone into this massive mod!

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although a nice effort the rsof post is going to be much more constant updated, + it has people posting recent price updates 24/7.

All rares and nex/ss have their own threads under item discussion.

 

No single source aggregates all that data, nor do they record histories.

 

Obviously the cc's will be better updated. But not everyone uses them.

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Ever wanted to find street prices of RS items? Check out the SPOLI Index

 

Nex Drops: Pernix Cowl, Pernix Chaps, Torva Helm, Torva Platebody, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Chaps, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Torva Platelegs, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Chaps, Virtus Robe Legs, Zaryte Bow, Virtus Mask, Torva Legs, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Virtus Robe Top, Zaryte Bow, Virtus Robe Legs, Virtus Robe Top, Virtus Robe Top, Torva Platelegs, Zaryte Bow, Pernix Body, Torva Platelegs, Torva Platelegs, Virtus Robe Top

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  • 11 months later...

From the official forums: (latest prices as of 08-Dec-2012 3:54:20)

 

All numbers in millions.

 

Purple: 995b

Yellow: 1078b

Green: 1263b

Red: 1399s

White: 1880b

 

Green h'ween: 95.5b

Blue h'ween: 118.4b

Red h'ween 150.4b

Santa hat: 140b

 

Easter egg: 70b

Disk: 150.4b

Pumpkin: 219.5s

Wine: 1000s

 

B = Instant buy

S = Instant sell

 

Whether or not rares are a wise investment is up to you to decide. ;).

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You got disk and pumpkin the wrong way around.

 

Disk is being highly maniped atm, went from 170m > 220m in a few days. (and not even by me :( had planned to buy loads but someone else had the same idea before me)

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1005s 1095s 1295b 1425b 1906s 3000-3100

 

Those are the official prices, although the blue range hasn't moved for a while and 3075 is the lowest reported transaction in a while, so that's more likely to be 3050-3150 now.

 

People probably don't like to look at it this way, but other than small daily fluctuations, the long term price of rares and the price of RSGP are correlated very strongly. The lack of any noticeable action against bots, combined with the higher than normal number of hosts giving up and selling GP recently, has driven the price of gp down. That increases the demand for rares.

 

There's also the self fulfilling prophecy aspect to it: most wealthy merchants know the above is true. So they stock rares early, leading to fewer hats on the market and a smaller supply, which drives the price up even more :P

 

I doubt jagex have anything planned against bots until at least the new year (if ever -.-) so I'm betting on a nice rise for now. Hopefully we'll see 2b+ whites again by the end of the month.

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Wow, if Santas are 140m right now, I'm really happy I bought mine back when it was like 75m :thumbsup:

Finally on here to update that I have officially quit! It's been fun.
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