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3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion


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I have been saving to buy a blue phat for some time now. I mainly go off of ge prices as I don't play anymore and just buy/sell rares when I can. I have a white phat, green mask, and 2x red masks. I figured I wouldn't have a problem getting a hat with white/masks going up faster than blue.

 

 

 

Yet, just going through the forums I am confused with the whole junk trading culture. Haven't played much since GE came out, so can only tell me accurate prices? The RS forums seem to be full of price manipulators and some saying blue phat is worth 600-700m with junk?

 

 

 

Do I have a shot at a blue phat?

 

 

 

thanks

 

 

 

Blue phat=2 white phats. White phat is about 380m. So no.

 

 

 

Pardon my noobness, but does that mean players are trading with over 150m in junk in a trade? Just never knew the extremes people go to get around trade restrictions.

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I have been saving to buy a blue phat for some time now. I mainly go off of ge prices as I don't play anymore and just buy/sell rares when I can. I have a white phat, green mask, and 2x red masks. I figured I wouldn't have a problem getting a hat with white/masks going up faster than blue.

 

 

 

Yet, just going through the forums I am confused with the whole junk trading culture. Haven't played much since GE came out, so can only tell me accurate prices? The RS forums seem to be full of price manipulators and some saying blue phat is worth 600-700m with junk?

 

 

 

Do I have a shot at a blue phat?

 

 

 

thanks

 

 

 

Blue phat=2 white phats. White phat is about 380m. So no.

 

 

 

Pardon my noobness, but does that mean players are trading with over 150m in junk in a trade? Just never knew the extremes people go to get around trade restrictions.

 

If you're planning on paying cash, my friend bought 600m worth of junk with a blue phat.... yea...

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Pardon my noobness, but does that mean players are trading with over 150m in junk in a trade? Just never knew the extremes people go to get around trade restrictions.

 

If you're planning on paying cash, my friend bought 600m worth of junk with a blue phat.... yea...

 

 

 

Jeez.. Now that's just ridiculous..

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

 

You must also remember that phats and the other rares were once worth about or even more than what they're worth today. I remember when blue phats were hanging out at ~500 mill (I think it was 500m, anyways; it's been too long). This might just be them going to where inflation would have put them had everyone not started selling them off several years ago (their decline started, I believe, with construction).

 

 

 

I enjoy watching phat prices rise.... It brings back memories....

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

 

You must also remember that phats and the other rares were once worth about or even more than what they're worth today. I remember when blue phats were hanging out at ~500 mill (I think it was 500m, anyways; it's been too long). This might just be them going to where inflation would have put them had everyone not started selling them off several years ago (their decline started, I believe, with construction).

 

 

 

I enjoy watching phat prices rise.... It brings back memories....

> SELECT * FROM users WHERE clue > 0;

0 rows returned

There's no place like 127.0.0.1

There are only 10 types of people

in this world: those who understand

binary and those who don't.

This statement is false.

$DO || ! $DO ; try

try: command not found

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

 

 

 

You're right that this level of increase is unsustainable over the long run. Halloween masks have been on the same track. That's why I'm investing in santas -- they've doubled over the last six months, but they have not skyrocketed at the rate that other rares have. Sooner or later things have a way of evening out. When santas shoot up and other rares level off or decline, I'll switch my investment. But I would not buy a partyhat or a halloween mask right now -- you could easily lose 50m (in opportunity cost) if some clan suddenly decides to dump partyhats.

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

 

 

 

You're right that this level of increase is unsustainable over the long run. Halloween masks have been on the same track. That's why I'm investing in santas -- they've doubled over the last six months, but they have not skyrocketed at the rate that other rares have. Sooner or later things have a way of evening out. When santas shoot up and other rares level off or decline, I'll switch my investment. But I would not buy a partyhat or a halloween mask right now -- you could easily lose 50m (in opportunity cost) if some clan suddenly decides to dump partyhats.

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

 

You must also remember that phats and the other rares were once worth about or even more than what they're worth today. I remember when blue phats were hanging out at ~500 mill (I think it was 500m, anyways; it's been too long). This might just be them going to where inflation would have put them had everyone not started selling them off several years ago (their decline started, I believe, with construction).

 

 

 

I enjoy watching phat prices rise.... It brings back memories....

 

 

 

I dont since it keeps reminding me how stupid it was to sell my white for 170m.

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

 

You must also remember that phats and the other rares were once worth about or even more than what they're worth today. I remember when blue phats were hanging out at ~500 mill (I think it was 500m, anyways; it's been too long). This might just be them going to where inflation would have put them had everyone not started selling them off several years ago (their decline started, I believe, with construction).

 

 

 

I enjoy watching phat prices rise.... It brings back memories....

 

 

 

I dont since it keeps reminding me how stupid it was to sell my white for 170m.

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

 

You must also remember that phats and the other rares were once worth about or even more than what they're worth today. I remember when blue phats were hanging out at ~500 mill (I think it was 500m, anyways; it's been too long). This might just be them going to where inflation would have put them had everyone not started selling them off several years ago (their decline started, I believe, with construction).

 

 

 

I enjoy watching phat prices rise.... It brings back memories....

 

 

 

I dont since it keeps reminding me how stupid it was to sell my white for 170m.

 

 

 

 

 

My red for 153m.

 

 

 

:(

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Are H'Ween Masks any kind of bargaining chips?

 

I have a set of them, and kinda want that Yellow Partyhat back.

 

 

 

From what I have seen H'weens are bought out and are getting pretty high offers for them. I doubt you will be able to get a phat with just 1 set though as yellow phats are like 400M street. I think alot of mask for phat offers include like 2-3 sets at least.

 

 

 

EDIT: Just saw a offer on the RSOF for a yellow.

 

1 disk

 

4 blues

 

3 greens

 

No response as of yet, but judging by this your chances are near 0.

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honestly, i cant believe the Phat prices right now

 

 

 

March, Yellow phat-79m 6months later..... 191m

 

 

 

so 112m increase in the span of just 6 short months

 

 

 

Green phat - 86m in march... 6 months later 189m

 

 

 

its just amazing at how much they drive up in such a short amount of time. though i know or believe that some merch clan is whats driving these items to increase by 1m+ a day, but still i believe it's ridiculous (even though they are rares) that their value is that high already.

 

 

 

A merchant clan does play a roll in the reason that they rise but they play a much bigger roll in how they get them to rise. First, no item can ever be "bought out" without a public demand for the item. If there is no public demand and the merchants are the only ones interested in it then it will flop. You need peons to help run the merchanting scheme. Now for my second point, merchants have various programs that make an alarm of sorts that tell you when a page has been changed (the ge page in this case). That way they can hit the grand exchange offer buttons ASAP and get the brand new offers for all the items they want in (remember most of them camp at the GE during popular update periods or all day in some hardcore cases). Once this is done a group of players who know they got the first offers in sell them via the ge so that the GE recognizes items sold at max therefore making the system make the item rise. This is repeated numerous times between the same group of people. Now sometimes you get the quick regular joe and they get the hat but in the grand scheme of things one hat isn't at all much. Jagex has made this much easier by dropping the update minimum (the amount of an item sold to require an update) to around 10-20 hats sold between updates. This way partyhats can update every other day with the exception of the blue which is circulated rarely. With the exception of a few Jagex interferences, this runs rather smoothly and turns out for a very nice gradual profit.

 

 

 

However, with the pricing rising 1m+ every other day less and less people will be interested in buying one. On the other hand, the quicker they rise the more desirable they become leading them to be able to go higher then they were right after the GE was instituted. This coupled with the fact that partyhats are a symbol of wealth, an extremely popular goal item, and with the lasting inflation of pvp tricking allows them to go even higher.

 

 

 

Furthermore, even though I might sound like I'm saying partyhats are the best and will keep rising blah blah...I'm not. They will crash when they reach the point were public demand falls to a bare minimum and the only people who want them are merchants and people who want them for keeps. Once the first (it is extremely important you realize that this is the first crash out of multiple to come) crash occurs they will be quickly bought out again by the people who want to keep them. Once this happens merchants will suck up what they can and they might rise a tad more and crash again for the second time. Once this happens they should drop down for a few updates until they get sucked up again. This will repeat until they become like the arcane and spectral spirit shield and are have too low of a supply to were the merchants control the majority of them and make is so they don't have the power to control the market entirely. Then they will remain stable until the balances shifts again and the process repeats if economical conditions provide. They could repeat the process the "first crash" did for multiple times demanding on the market and the things Jagex releases (if Jagex releases a skill to where spending money is a large part of it demand for partyhats and large items in general will fall causing an earlier crash and less successful rebuyouts). It is also entirely possible that the large partyhats, blue, white, and possibly red, will not be effected due to the lower supply and the fact that people that buy them (excluding some merchants) tend to keep them as they are the keep sake ones and are a bigger decision then the others (yes I am saying throwing around 250M+ for a hat is a bigger decision than 120M-200M, it's the truth so accept it and try not to be offended).

 

 

 

On a final note, if you really are interested in buying a partyhat then I suggest you do so right after the first or second crash. On another note, if you feel the price is too much then don't force yourself to pay for it. I suggest finding a price in your mind that you want to pay for a partyhat and if the partyhat goes over it then keep the offer there until it sells or you lose interest in it.

 

 

 

If anyone has any questions about what I just typed feel free to PM me but remember everything decision is yours and yours alone I only provide information that may or may not influence a decision.

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Amen brother, nicely spoken. But if I understand your story correctely, this fenomen will not only happen to partyhat, but also to e.g. Elysian and Divine spirit shields? Because I want an Elysian, but they don't do anything... They don't rise, they don't drop... (6k isn't "dropping" :P)

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  • 3 weeks later...

I plan to write a sum up of the last pages that were discussed during the forum transition that were lost. So bear with me right now I am trying to finish some homework.

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670th to 99 Smithing July 21st, 07 |743rd to 99 Mining November 29th, 07 | 649th to 99 Runecrafting May 18th, 08 | 29,050th to 99 Defence October 20th, 08 | 20,700th to 99 Magic November 8, 08 | 47,938th to 99 Attack December 19, 08 | 37,829th to 99 Hitpoints December 24, 08 | 68,604th to 99 Strength February 4, 09 | 27,983rd to 99 Range February 9, 09 | 9,725th to 99 Prayer June 8, 09 | 6,620th to 99 Slayer December, 12 09 | 4,075th to 99 Summoning December, 28 09 | 3,551th to 99 Herblore February 24, 10 | 3,192th to 99 Dungeoneering November 11, 10 | 146,600th to 99 Cooking December 29th, 10 | 11,333rd to 99 Construction June 7th, 11 | 16,648th to 99 Farming August 1st, 11 | 19,993th to 99 Crafting August 2nd, 11 | 89,739th to 99 Woodcutting Janurary 1st, 12 | 55,424th to 99 Fishing May 9th, 12| 60,648th to 99 Firemaking May 12th, 12 | 16666th to 99 Agility May 17th, 2012 | 24476th to 99 Hunter June 1st, 2012 | 57,881st to 99 Fletching June 1st, 2012 | All 99s June 1st, 2012 | 3183th to 120 Dungeoneering July 24th, 2012 | 2341st to 2496 Total level July 24th, 2012 | Completionist Cape July 24th, 2012

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RSW44 seems busy with homework and this topic is slipping into the abyss of page 2 so here is a quick look at the last few pages. (please still do yours RSW44, you are much smarter with rares)

 

Santa Hats - According to RSW44 no major clans are merching them at the moment so they are "stable" compared to the past. There are still wild fluctuations in price that seem to either be lots of flippers or failed small clans trying to buy them out. They did drop 800k today but I see them poppining up and down around the 27-30M mark until a clan buys them out.

 

H'weens - I am not sure, I'll look into it.

 

Party hats - The lower 3 hats seem to have fallen slightly in street price because of some odd updates (under 1% rise even though they are bought out and purple even fell a bit) but they are still bought out.

 

Half wine - Cracker - Still super high street, i have seen offers around 1.2 to about 2B.

 

Eggs - Bought out, not sure how completely. Although I did see someone trading a disk for 2 eggs so it is pretty good.

 

Punkins - Disks - Still doing quite well. RSW44 said these seem to be the `hot` item atm.

 

 

Another major thing that was discussed was the odd increases in some items like partyhats. After a long time we pretty much concluded that Jagex changed the GE to a buyers market. This change combined with ancient partyhats coming back into the game (sell offers put in by players who quit when the ge came out) is what we think caused it.

 

This was just my take on the current market and the last 7 pages of lost talking.

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Yes OTM you basically have it right.

 

Santas to my knowledge are not bought out by an particular clan at the moment. The rises and falls are purely from solo merchants or people buying and selling them. Halloween masks seem too overpriced in my opinion. They are starting to go down, but it's not a crash. So if your going to invest in one you should wait until they settle.

 

Half wines dropped in street price a bit, but are still well over 1.5B along with it's friend the cracker.

 

Eggs are currently 40-50M street while disks are pushing 100M. Pumpkins are a very hot item at this moment and are being traded for partyhats quite easily. Their street price pushes over 150M, however, they are a result of the recent partyhat panic and the fact that they rise easily in the GE.

 

Some pieces of 3rd age are currently bought out like legs and plate. While others are buyable at mid-max at different times of the day. Expect to wait a few hours at least for any melee piece along with the top and bottom for the range and mage sets.

 

Ahh......partyhat time the whole reason behind this sum up. Recently Jagex changed the GE system so that it became a buyers market. They did this by making it so that if you put an item in the GE and there is already offers for that item for over the price you put it in at, it will sell for the exact price of which you put it in at. This however only effects some items such as rares and a few heavily traded items. Meaning you shouldn't expect to put an item that sells for max in for mid and get max for it; you'll instead get what you put it in for. Now with a combination of that change and the partyhat prices reaching what they were right after the GE was introduced (the time they were unsellable). Meaning that those previously outdated offers from all those old players who threw their partyhats in the GE and never took them out are starting to become active. Thus they are starting to sell and with the change in mechanics they will sell for exactly what they were put in for even if it in min. Partyhats selling at under mid will cause them to drop even though people were offering max. So the partyhat prices started to jump around and not rise the full 1% causing a panic and more people throwing them in for under mid even though they were still bought out. It has settled down since, but it is an important thing to realize that Jagex changed the system and that a drop in the GE price doesn't mean a crash. This "event" ended with the lower three and possibly red taking a hit in street price due to panic and the sell off which dropped public demand which is needed for any great buy out.

 

If anyone has any questions they can PM me or post, but I will not be able to answer them until later tomorrow as again.........I'm busy. :wall:

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670th to 99 Smithing July 21st, 07 |743rd to 99 Mining November 29th, 07 | 649th to 99 Runecrafting May 18th, 08 | 29,050th to 99 Defence October 20th, 08 | 20,700th to 99 Magic November 8, 08 | 47,938th to 99 Attack December 19, 08 | 37,829th to 99 Hitpoints December 24, 08 | 68,604th to 99 Strength February 4, 09 | 27,983rd to 99 Range February 9, 09 | 9,725th to 99 Prayer June 8, 09 | 6,620th to 99 Slayer December, 12 09 | 4,075th to 99 Summoning December, 28 09 | 3,551th to 99 Herblore February 24, 10 | 3,192th to 99 Dungeoneering November 11, 10 | 146,600th to 99 Cooking December 29th, 10 | 11,333rd to 99 Construction June 7th, 11 | 16,648th to 99 Farming August 1st, 11 | 19,993th to 99 Crafting August 2nd, 11 | 89,739th to 99 Woodcutting Janurary 1st, 12 | 55,424th to 99 Fishing May 9th, 12| 60,648th to 99 Firemaking May 12th, 12 | 16666th to 99 Agility May 17th, 2012 | 24476th to 99 Hunter June 1st, 2012 | 57,881st to 99 Fletching June 1st, 2012 | All 99s June 1st, 2012 | 3183th to 120 Dungeoneering July 24th, 2012 | 2341st to 2496 Total level July 24th, 2012 | Completionist Cape July 24th, 2012

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Just an update for everyone......

 

More and more partyhats seem to be selling in person these days. There is currently a lot in circulation for herblaw supplies; however, they are being traded for insane amounts of herblaw supplies so the general public demand will not be hurt too badly. Currently the lower three partyhats are teeter tottering and with a release of another money sink skill or incentive to train one they will most likely crash. The top two partyhats seem pretty strong while the status of red is debatable currently and only time will tell. Don't expect a blue or white crash for awhile even if they release incentives to train money sink skills. I think it will take a whole new money sink to crash these and even then it might not happen. If you want to check out my prediction about what will happen when/if partyhats crash it's on page 62 near the end of the page.

 

Masks don't seem to be doing too well right now, but it's not very bad nor is it minor. Santas are currently decent but the buyout isn't strong; so don't expect it to last very long.

 

Third age is basically the same with range, melee, and range tops and bottoms being the hardest to get with of course the melee plate and legs being the hardest to buy out of that set. The other pieces are mid-max depending on the time of day. Expect to wait over a day if you have an offer in for melee plate and legs.

 

Pumpkins dropped 10-15M in street today so they aren't as hot as they were a few days ago but, they are still pretty darn good for their market price. Disks, easters, half wines, and crackers remain the same street as they have been for the past few weeks.

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670th to 99 Smithing July 21st, 07 |743rd to 99 Mining November 29th, 07 | 649th to 99 Runecrafting May 18th, 08 | 29,050th to 99 Defence October 20th, 08 | 20,700th to 99 Magic November 8, 08 | 47,938th to 99 Attack December 19, 08 | 37,829th to 99 Hitpoints December 24, 08 | 68,604th to 99 Strength February 4, 09 | 27,983rd to 99 Range February 9, 09 | 9,725th to 99 Prayer June 8, 09 | 6,620th to 99 Slayer December, 12 09 | 4,075th to 99 Summoning December, 28 09 | 3,551th to 99 Herblore February 24, 10 | 3,192th to 99 Dungeoneering November 11, 10 | 146,600th to 99 Cooking December 29th, 10 | 11,333rd to 99 Construction June 7th, 11 | 16,648th to 99 Farming August 1st, 11 | 19,993th to 99 Crafting August 2nd, 11 | 89,739th to 99 Woodcutting Janurary 1st, 12 | 55,424th to 99 Fishing May 9th, 12| 60,648th to 99 Firemaking May 12th, 12 | 16666th to 99 Agility May 17th, 2012 | 24476th to 99 Hunter June 1st, 2012 | 57,881st to 99 Fletching June 1st, 2012 | All 99s June 1st, 2012 | 3183th to 120 Dungeoneering July 24th, 2012 | 2341st to 2496 Total level July 24th, 2012 | Completionist Cape July 24th, 2012

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