3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[Ermy]

Hmm, AGS, SGS, claws and other big items crashed yesterday, but they seemed to pick up, so I bought one of each. Now it's questionable though. They went from min, to over med, to around med again it seems.

 

same has happened to bandos plate and tassets, wish i only bought 1 of them...

[Guthorm]

Really? Because two days ago I just sold every high end equipment I have-All the sets of barrows, bandos, armadyl, bandos, SGS, for 3rd age melee. Everything sold above mid instantly. Now I am thinking about buying everything back because as badass 3rd age maybe, I really do not want to screw my bank over it. So can you buy all the high end stuff below mid? I might have made a merch by mistake. XD

[bedman]

Not below I think, but it didn't really rebound up to max as I expected.

[la la la]

I bought BCP and tassets for 100k under mid today, and armadyl plate and skirt bought instant min. I think it would be fair to say they are still going down a bit.

[Talset65]

Spirit shields are rising? I've been offered loads of risings for my arcane. Wut?

[Bladewing]

Probably overpaid a lot, but oh well.

 

[D Jay99]

Well, not a question about rares, but it's sort of related to economics so I guess this is the right topic.

 

Dragon bones are buyable at exactly med (4992 each) at the moment. What do you expect, will they start crashing or will they go up more? Is it a good idea to buy them now?

[Master_Smither]

Well, not a question about rares, but it's sort of related to economics so I guess this is the right topic.

 

Dragon bones are buyable at exactly med (4992 each) at the moment. What do you expect, will they start crashing or will they go up more? Is it a good idea to buy them now?

 

*gloats about dumping all mine right after the update last night*

 

Wait for the masses in America to get on Runescape and see that they aren't at max and start dumping them. I'd suggest buying for min right after they fall at the next GE update.

[Danqazmlp]

Let the panic begin?

[D Jay99]

Yup, buyable for min already.

[yuriqiu]

That was a little unexpected. Anyone know why d bones crashed? I expected them to go alot higher than this. (Hurray for getting 99 prayer 2 years ago :D)

[Wachtwoord]

Because millions and millions of these were hoarded by merchants. The amount of bones gathered by them was way higher then the extra demand from the update.

[Danqazmlp]

With the extra demand they caused by hoarding them, and since they have been hoarded for so long, i'm unsure what their true price is with just people wanting to train prayer buying.

[Carl]

I wonder what fool said they'd make it to 6k Gp... :roll: (Dragon bones, that is)

[Bladewing]

I wonder what fool said they'd make it to 6k Gp... :roll: (Dragon bones, that is)

Well, they did, unless you meant GE price. I traded Dragon Bones at a "street value" of 8k each. I bet that guy who sold me his phat is doing a huge

 

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

 

right now.

[Money Wasted]

Can anyone give an estimate on the amount of dragon bones that has been hoarded by merchants. It says there has been 70mil dragon bones bought through the ge in the last 3 months after the developer's blog was released which confirmed the prayer update. So add on 10mil bones bought through trading and that's about 80mil bones. What percentage of that do you think are in merchant hands or have been?

[joker2022]

They will eventually dry up.

 

D bones are easy to get, but take awhile to get a decent amount. High level players can get then efficiently, but more economical for them to kill higher level monsters for better loot.

 

If you have d bones, hold on to them

 

 

As more people do the quest they will go back up.

[Carl]

I wonder what fool said they'd make it to 6k Gp... :roll: (Dragon bones, that is)

Well, they did, unless you meant GE price. I traded Dragon Bones at a "street value" of 8k each. I bet that guy who sold me his phat is doing a huge

 

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

 

right now.

 

I'm talking about GE price. There's no difference, really. "Street price", is the exact same price as ge price given items are added to equal it..

[Lep]

Ok so 70 million Dragon Bones have been hoarded. But keep in mind how powerful Turmoil and Soul Split are for combat and especially PVP.

 

I'm gonna start pulling slightly random numbers out of a hat here...

There are roughly 1,950,000 players with under 80 Prayer.

Let's say that 1/3 of these players are members.

That's about 650,000 players with under 80 Prayer.

Let's say that 2/3 of these players are still active.

That's about 430,000 players.

Let's say that 1/2 of them want to raise Prayer to 95.

That's about 215,000 players who want Turmoil.

80-95 Prayer requires roughly 27,000 Dragon Bones. (Keep in mind that the players have UNDER 80 Prayer)

215,000 x 27,000 = 5,805,000,000 Dragon Bones.

5,805,000,000 - 70,000,000 Dragon Bones saved up by merchanters = 5,735,000,000 Dragon Bones that people need still.

 

Hmm, so I pulled out relatively randoms numbers out of a hat, okay. Well they can only be so wrong, because these Prayers are unbelievably powerful and you need them to be any competition in anything relating to combat. Which is pretty much most of the game.

Okay, let's divide 215,000 by 10 and say that's how many people want 95 Prayer.

That's 21,500 people who want 95 Prayer. That's an extremely low and unlikely number btw...

21,500 x 27,000 Dragon Bones for 80-95 Prayer = 580,000,000 Dragon Bones.

580,000,000 - 70,000,000 Dragon Bones held by merchanters = 510,000,000 Dragon Bones still needed.

 

So basically, even compensating in other bones that people will have bought, this "crash" is not going to last. These Prayers are powerful and people will want them.

Just my 2 cents...

[joker2022]

Ok so 70 million Dragon Bones have been hoarded. But keep in mind how powerful Turmoil and Soul Split are for combat and especially PVP.

 

I'm gonna start pulling slightly random numbers out of a hat here...

There are roughly 1,950,000 players with under 80 Prayer.

Let's say that 1/3 of these players are members.

That's about 650,000 players with about 80 Prayer.

Let's say that 2/3 of these players are still active.

That's about 430,000 players.

Let's say that 1/2 of them want to raise Prayer to 95.

That's about 215,000 players who want Turmoil.

80-95 Prayer requires roughly 27,000 Dragon Bones. (Keep in mind that the 1,950,000 players have UNDER 80 Prayer)

215,000 x 27,000 = 5,805,000,000 Dragon Bones.

5,805,000,000 - 70,000,000 Dragon Bones saved up by merchanters = 5,735,000,000 Dragon Bones that people need still.

 

Hmm, so I pulled out relatively randoms numbers out of a hat, okay. Well they can only be so wrong, because these Prayers are unbelievably powerful and you need them to be any competition in anything relating to combat. Which is pretty much most of the game.

Okay, let's divide 215,000 by 10 and say that's how many people want 95 Prayer.

That's 21,500 people who want 95 Prayer. That's an extremely low and unlikely number btw...

21,500 x 27,000 Dragon Bones for 80-95 Prayer = 580,000,000 Dragon Bones.

580,000,000 - 70,000,000 Dragon Bones held by merchanters = 510,000,000 Dragon Bones still needed.

 

So basically, even compensating in other bones that people will have bought, this "crash" is not going to last. These Prayers are powerful and people will want them.

Just my 2 cents...

 

 

thank you. Like I said before, hold.

 

.

[Bladewing]

thank you. Like I said before, hold.

Buy out for min after the next 1/2 GE updates.

[Master_Smither]

Yes I did say they would near 5.5k-6K each *if* the prayers were good, and indeed they were. However, this update came very close to the weekend when the majority of Runescapers log on to play and therefore were able to slay dragons like no other. This combined with the sheer amount of Dragon Bones hoarded with anticipation to this update caused them to stop a bit short of what I *predicted*. However, they were easily traded for partyhats and unbuyable rares during there prime, so no matter what they were a huge success for people with them. Furthermore, it is very hard to try and predict what a market will do because of the fact no one knows the supplies entirely.

Edited December 7, 2009 by laura0077

[Money Wasted]

Tbh, dragon bones do have a chance of rising again. 80mil bones is enough for 2k people to get 99 prayer, 2.6k for 95 and 5.3k people to get 90 prayer. Half of these bones are probably used up by now, most likely more than that. The rest will have been kept as an investment or to get prayer up. Also keep in mind that players would have been using other bones to level up prayer as well but these cant be obtained as fast to keep up with the demand and only account for a small percentage of people using them. With the prayer update there will be new interest in the skill and we will see more people going for 90, 95 or 99. Since the prayers are very useful and can be used in pvp, many maxed players with 70 prayer will want to raise their levels to keep up. Herblore is at 20-25 gp/exp right now and prayer is 20 gp/exp right now. My guess would be it will stablise at around 5k-6k if more people sell their herblore supplies and start buying bones.

[Low C]

I had 94 banked before the update. Right when the update hit i traded my mints to bank 96. I just bought the remaining bones for 99 this morning for minimum price. In my opinion they will fall an update or 2 then rise again.

[Obtaurian]

So for an average Joe like me, does this mean I'll be able to afford to level prayer any time soon? From what I gather, the bones crashed, though the GE doesn't reflect that (it never does, I suppose).