11-Dec-2012 - Player-Owned Ports

[Platinum_Myr]

Don't remember who said it, but I remember seeing "1 random per day, no more no less", the 'no less' part is not true as I just went from reset to reset with no randoms.

 

Can anyone confirm getting more than one random in a day though? I think I have but no proof

[strilmus]

the difference here is that the payoffs are relatively lower and the voyage times are higher

 

If i remember right, resource payoffs were pretty low (120) at the beginning of the bowl. Like other regions I assume it increases

 

I just realized I'm almost to pincers and I still have a Scythe combat member in my crew...I never even noticed lol

yeah, but the resources scale with difficulty, and pincer has higher baseline than bowl

[Urza285]

Thinking of buying the pristine warehouse the getting the luxurious bar next so I get the cherry wood for the bar and totems faster.

 

Send my last tetsu set scroll voyage out at 83% and wasn't quite happy with that success rate.

[JeRambo]

I should have focused on scrolls in the earlier regions..the time and requirements for them in the Pincers is insane.. Think it was 12k in Morale/SF and an 18 hour voyage..

Failed my last tetsu leg scroll but got the 25 plates from my story mission. :(. Basically GF to trying to make some cash from Ports.

[Sy_Accursed]

I don't think three merchants is necessary at all, you rarely get three missions you want to use one on anyway. That's especially true after you maxed your stainless steel upgrades.

 

?????

 

If a merchant wasn't worth having on your boat, you're probably done with the Ports in the first place.

 

Get 4 merchants, never let them leave any ships.

 

Thats just no.

If the voyage is sub-100% you don't want a merchant, better to have a different unit for 100%.

 

I can see Quy's point though I would be of the opinion when you have basically 'finished' ports presumably you'd be able to 100% most trade good missions (which are kinda the only reason to still be there) so surely you would be wanting a merchant on most voyages at that point.

 

Absolutely not. Let me give you probability 101 right now. Specific lesson: expected value.

 

Our goal is to maximize the expected return of each mission. There are two factors contributing to the expected value: the probability of success (p) and the amount returned if successful (x). The relationship between them is simple: the expected return on a voyage, E(V), is equal to the probability of success times the amount returned when successful. Thus, E(V) = px.

 

We have two scenarios to consider: one with a merchant, one without a merchant. Without a merchant, suppose the best success rate we can get is P, and the expected return is X. With a merchant, the return given success increases to 1.3X. How much does p decrease due to the lack of a merchant? Well, suppose you lose 2k of unit stats (conservative overestimate), and the mission has requirements of 16k (roughly typical, though it doesn't matter much if this changes). Then that changes p from P to 0.875P, and thus E(V) = 0.875P(1.3X) = 1.1375PX. This is a roughly 14% increase in expected return by using a merchant.

 

Note that as mission requirements increase, it actually becomes more beneficial to use a merchant, as the decrease in p becomes smaller while the increase in x becomes larger.

 

TLDR: ALWAYS use a merchant, on ALL your voyages, except for voyages for 3 or fewer trade goods, where the effect will be rounded down to nothing.

 

You wouldn't want to use a merchant if it decreased your success by more than 30% (roughly, 1/1.3 to be precise), but there are no such missions.

 

To me this probability math has a few flaws in its considerations.

1) It ignores the factor of time - a failed voyage doesn't just mean less resources it comes at a high time cost.

2) It ignores the practical resource cost of failure - ship repair charges and dead crew costs impact on overall outcome, especially when you consider a crew death not only costs resources to replace it has an ongoing negative effect whilst that replacement is levelled up.

3) It is all very well in theory, but as with most complex probability/statistical odds theory and reality rarely conform taking thousands and thousands of interactions to trend towards the expected; so for a singular user this model is unlikely to play out correctly. It could work out much better than someone using no merchant BUT it could also end up much worse.

[Yoko Kurama]

I should have focused on scrolls in the earlier regions..the time and requirements for them in the Pincers is insane.. Think it was 12k in Morale/SF and an 18 hour voyage..

Failed my last tetsu leg scroll but got the 25 plates from my story mission. :(. Basically GF to trying to make some cash from Ports.

 

I feel the same way with regards to Scrolls. I am 70% into the bowl, and am now considering if it's worth it to just stick with the bowl artificially, get all the armour scrolls, then move onto Pinciers.

 

Also, could you share your crew setup?

[JeRambo]

Sure.

 

 

Bought that crappy merchant cause I badly needed another one. Succeeded 25 chi mission on second attempt.

 

And going to attempt scroll voyage again.. :pray:.

 

Not too optimistic.

[Yoko Kurama]

Thanks, you rock.

 

Also, what do you think of my strategy to artificially delay my stay in the Bowl to rack up scrolls and then move onto Pinciers?

[Saradomin_Mage]

What would you be rushing to the Pincers for?

[Yoko Kurama]

What would you be rushing to the Pincers for?

 

For the trade-goods. I have 9 scroll pieces at the moment. From the looks of it, it would take me forever to assemble everything in the Pincers. Which is why I should probably just only do Scroll missions for the rest of the Bowl, or something.

[Saradomin_Mage]

If you're not rushing to build and sell anything, you may want to more actively hunt scrolls while you can with a better success rate and faster voyages.

[Yoko Kurama]

If you're not rushing to build and sell anything, you may want to more actively hunt scrolls while you can with a better success rate and faster voyages.

 

I am only there to make the Superior Armours. I don't care about the Scrimshaws or any of that other stuff. So I need another 27 Scrolls. I'm actively hunting the scrolls at the moment. How much boost does that Scroll Totem give?Is it worth it?

[Platinum_Myr]

As far as I've seen once we reach a new area, scroll missions all go up right? So we can't just select a previous region and hunt for scrolls that way correct?

[Yoko Kurama]

As far as I've seen once we reach a new area, scroll missions all go up right? So we can't just select a previous region and hunt for scrolls that way correct?

 

Scrolls can only be hunted through Special Voyages, which are tied to the highest region unlocked, not the region focused on. So, no.

[Saradomin_Mage]

The telescope is expected to be a 1% boost to scroll mission odds, in line with the other totem upgrades. If this is the case it's hardly worth it, but you could build them if you want.

[Grand Lord Dan]

The telescope is expected to be a 1% boost to scroll mission odds, in line with the other totem upgrades. If this is the case it's hardly worth it, but you could build them if you want.

 

If it means anything; I built one yesterday and got a Scroll voyage just today, so it's 1/1. Still waiting for days to pass to see if it does anything, obviously.

[Saradomin_Mage]

so.. does snyone know the conclusions tothe storylines and wants to share it, wiki has nothing :/

 

God's Grace Upon You

[hide]Description: "Travel to the mercenary fleet, and pay them to level the Zamorakian base, hopefully taking the Purists with them."

 

Tomlin has discovered that the Zamorakian fleets and mercenaries are harboured near the Purists. He knows that he can't take on their combined might, so decides to set up a double cross.

 

When Tomlin was sent to build a church in the Wushanko Isles, Brother Jered gave him money to build the church. However, he didn't use this money to pay the sea orphans who were building the church, benefitting off their free labour. Tomlin decides to use this money to buy off the mercenaries to fight on his side, and with the Purists and Zamorakians so close to one another, hopefully wipe out both of them.

 

Upon completion, Tomlin returns to tell you that though the Purists and Zamorakians were not completely destroyed, their forces were severely crippled, which should reduce the threat they pose to the region. Word of the defeat spread quickly to the sea orphans, who finished erecting his church. Tomlin holds his first sermon, and to his surprise sees among his congregation the sea orphans who used to curse him; at the very least they are now willing to listen to his message.

 

Tomlin is glad that he's now considered by the sea orphans as a friend, as opposed to one to be feared, and thanks you for your help in his efforts.

[/hide]

[chenw]

 

Failed today's voyage, now the scrolls are at 16k singles, I sent out today at 65%

 

I plan to get Vampyrism after I finish Tetsu Helm, then Death Lotus after Vampyrism, then no idea after that :P

 

 

My actual progress

[Urza285]

For those who want to see what the pristine warehouse looks like:

 

 

I might as well work at the jade portal if no one can get a picture. Depending on if someone posts one I might either get it before or after the luxurious bar.

[Saradomin_Mage]

 

Failed today's voyage, now the scrolls are at 16k singles, I sent out today at 65%

25 scroll pieces holy crap

 

Knew I should never have passed up scroll missions ughhhh

[chenw]

For those who want to see what the pristine warehouse looks like:

 

 

I might as well work at the jade portal if no one can get a picture. Depending on if someone posts one I might either get it before or after the luxurious bar.

 

I can't say i see the jade, unless those vases are jade...

 

My scroll count is as a result of doing every scroll mission that popped up, regardless of my success %, I skipped 1 and failed 3 so far.

[Thorgmir]

 

To me this probability math has a few flaws in its considerations.

1) It ignores the factor of time - a failed voyage doesn't just mean less resources it comes at a high time cost.

2) It ignores the practical resource cost of failure - ship repair charges and dead crew costs impact on overall outcome, especially when you consider a crew death not only costs resources to replace it has an ongoing negative effect whilst that replacement is levelled up.

3) It is all very well in theory, but as with most complex probability/statistical odds theory and reality rarely conform taking thousands and thousands of interactions to trend towards the expected; so for a singular user this model is unlikely to play out correctly. It could work out much better than someone using no merchant BUT it could also end up much worse.

 

I'll address these points in reverse order:

 

3. You vastly underestimate the power of the central limit theorem. The variance of the mean result is extremely small after, say, 100 voyages, which is a rather low proportion of the total you will have to do. I can very confidently say this will work out better for you, and no, you do not need thousands and thousands of trials to "trend toward expected." In any case, there is variance with and without merchants, and you could end up worse than expected without a merchant, too. Please do the math before making bogus claims about probability theory.

 

2. While it's true, I ignored this, the effects are rather limited. While I have only my own data to rely upon, I have never lost a crew member (and if you have lifeboats, you don't even risk them), and have never been charged what I would consider a significant amount for ship repairs. By assuming my own mediocrity, I can only conclude that such serious costs are rare and not a significant factor. This would then only become a factor when you have no marginal benefit from acquiring more resources (aka, you already have all upgrades and more resources than you know what to do with).

 

1. The time cost is also irrelevant, and in fact doesn't exist. There are two kinds of time cost to consider: in terms of lost resources, and in terms of lost distance. The cost in resource acquisition, however, is already taken into account in the prior calculation. The cost in distance acquisition, while seemingly important, is in fact, not worth considering, because you gain the same distance regardless of whether a mission succeeds or fails.

 

So none of these objections have any weight. I concede that if you no longer care about resources, there's no benefit to having a merchant on a resources mission, but that's just common sense. In every other case, which is all the time until you're in the Pincers and maxed all upgrades, you should definitely have a merchant on all your missions.

[Urza285]

Oh god please spare us. If you want to discuss this that in depth and with such strength, conviction and point-driven evidence please by all means go to the meta-game sub forum. I hate seeking people go all "TL;DR" but when faced with such a serious in-depth post with such conviction such as that I can't help, but to ask for it. We are playing a minigame... There is a level of novelty here that should not be passed.

 

Edit: and sady I had to even go to dictionary.com to make sure I was using the right word when making the statement about the novelty of ports. It's like some of societies "unspoken" rules... Just don't do it!

[Thorgmir]

Just to add more specifics to my previous post, I modeled this and found that using a sample size of 100 missions (roughly 2/3 of what it takes to advance from the Bowl to the Pincers), an average mission requirement of 16000, and an average loss of 1800 "skill points" from adding a merchant (roughly a level 8 Bowl crew member, and assuming you get no morale boost from the merchant), you will come out ahead in jade 99.7% of the time by using a merchant, by an average of 3085 jade over the course of the hundred missions (assuming 250 jade reward/mission and 90% success rate without a merchant). The 95% CI is from 975 extra jade to 5025 extra jade. You definitely do not need thousands of missions to be sure of improved results.

[jayc3399]

Oh god please spare us. If you want to discuss this that in depth and with such strength, conviction and point-driven evidence please by all means go to the meta-game sub forum. I hate seeking people go all "TL;DR" but when faced with such a serious in-depth post with such conviction such as that I can't help, but to ask for it. We are playing a minigame... There is a level of novelty here that should not be passed.

 

Edit: and sady I had to even go to dictionary.com to make sure I was using the right word when making the statement about the novelty of ports. It's like some of societies "unspoken" rules... Just don't do it!

 

Too be honest I found this quite interesting and I might change my strategy for ports now. I appriciate the evidence to support his claim.