The inflation on Yew logs is quite something, though that is drawing more players into competition with the bots, actually, it highlights a defect in the price tracking.

 

 

 

Sellers of finished items, particularly of lower grade items, will often put them at the lowest price, resulting in a downward pull, while buyers of bulk stock often place the order at above the midpoint price, resulting in an upward push even if there is nothing wrong with the prices as they stand.

 

 

 

There is certainly a readjustment, but where it will end is anyone's guess.

 

 

 

I'd say the most damaging thing to rares has been the dual arena update, as rares can no longer change hands as rewards for a fair fight.

 

 

 

The ease of trading on the exchange is a double edged sword, while anyone can now be a trader, even while offline, it puts everyone in competition, tough competion for some items with saturation buyers or sellers

I love how in the world of rs people always try to belittle you or make you out to be stupid just because your opinion doesn't coincide with thiers.

 

 

 

To address some things I never said that economic failure and crash went hand in hand. Something halfing in price is by no means a crash in my book, shops all over the world do half price sakles all the time, it does not mark an economic crash.

 

 

 

In my view it is just another update related flucation, one however that will undercut the hyper inflation caused by price manipulating merchnats

@ Paw_Claw

 

First off, I haven't seen anyone try to belittle you or anything. I personally was just presenting a generally accepted definition of what a crash was. If you believe otherwise, that's fine.

 

 

 

I know you never directly said that failure and crashes go hand in hand, but I think that's what I interpreted when you said a "crash means the economy is no longer working", wouldn't that imply a market failure?

 

 

 

The problem with your analogy to half price in shops in the world, is that shops do that on purpose (advertising, holidays, etc.) but most people in RS didn't want to sell their items for half price, but were more forced to as more items became visible in our market.

 

 

 

It is a update related, and you can define it as a fluctuation but this fluctuation seems to be severe enough to be called a crash.

you make it sound like we're in a depression. tbh i'm glad this happened, as this is what i feel the prices should be at anyway. there should be no reason to pay outlandish prices for some of these goods. 1k each per shark was a ridiculous price to begin with.

 

 

 

in fact, it helps me probably more than anyone because the things i'm selling usually(dk drops, etc.) seem to have stabilized or even gone up, and the things i'm buying(pots,food, etc) have gone down. so if this is a crash, i hope the market never returns to normal.

 

 

 

\

So there was this gambler, he was really into gambling, and winning, and one time he took a cruise, and he was gambling on the cruise, playing poker, and as luck would have it he got a 10 of spades, and jack of spades, a queen of spades, and a king of spades. And he said "what good luck I'm having aboard this ship, the Titanic".

 

 

 

So you see, stock prices and other prices and forms of gambling are largely irrelevant to the economy.

just a mention on slayer monsters dropping lots of nats, I'm only 40 odd slayer but can get 1k nats a trip from basilisks, I dont know about others but they are definately a common drop from basilisks, which slayer monsters do you train on regularly that dont drop nats, (or to a certain extent which dont you train on as that maybe where the nats are).

 

 

 

prices:

 

 

 

gold bars up

 

 

 

most gems up

 

 

 

mith bars up

 

 

 

willow logs up

 

 

 

onyx bolts up (maybe a contentious one but i spent months trying to sell and ended up selling on exchange easily at a higher price than I was asking b4 exchange).

 

 

 

just a few things that pop to mind, im sure there are many more, there is no denying that overall more prices are dropping than rising, but it is anything but a market collapse or crash, gp is still changing hands at a fast rate, I know a lot of people who are buying like crazy on some items while the prices are low.

 

 

 

While prices are low also, wealth is re-distributed, more low levels are getting better prices for things like nats, sapphires, gold etc, where as things high levels would make/collect like rune armour shark etc are dropping.. low levels having more money and high value items dropping in price means that sooner or later low levels will be able to afford items they once couldnt, prices of shark will soon rise again when they drop to a point that low levels can afford them, if they are bought by low levels there is less available for the higher levels or pkers who require more of them, these people will soon start offering max price when they cant get them straight away, add to that people will fish them less as they make less money.

 

 

 

Prices will find their natural level, there is no crash just re-balancing. Fine some some merchants wernt clever enough to realise that Jagex make most of their updates on Mondays and it was announed early in the month that there would be an exchange. If they got stuck with a lot of stock that has lost value well they wernt exactly good merchants, I am no merchant but I am a 99 cook, I cleared my bank of shark on the sunday before exchange was released, it was obvious the price was going to bomb.

 

 

 

As mentioned before there are plenty of ways to make money merchanting still, everyone should be happy, only people who cant really be happy are merchants who didnt have the foresight to sell sell sell.

@ Paw_Claw

 

First off, I haven't seen anyone try to belittle you or anything. I personally was just presenting a generally accepted definition of what a crash was. If you believe otherwise, that's fine.

 

 

 

I know you never directly said that failure and crashes go hand in hand, but I think that's what I interpreted when you said a "crash means the economy is no longer working", wouldn't that imply a market failure?

 

 

 

The problem with your analogy to half price in shops in the world, is that shops do that on purpose (advertising, holidays, etc.) but most people in RS didn't want to sell their items for half price, but were more forced to as more items became visible in our market.

 

 

 

It is a update related, and you can define it as a fluctuation but this fluctuation seems to be severe enough to be called a crash.

 

 

 

a market that does not work and a market that fails are two greatly different things.

 

 

 

A market that does not work indicates that the selling/buying is going haywire due to incorrect prices

 

 

 

A market thgat fails simply means it is dead.

 

 

 

There wad no problem with my analogy, no-one is FORCING anyone tosell for certain prices. People sell for the price they want, if enough people have the will power to do so the price will stabalise or rise.

 

 

 

The comment about belitting did not really apply to this thread, and was not especially at you as you were quite polite about it. It's other people who just outright say "you are wrong" when the idea of a market crash is subjective.

 

 

 

Much like in history if we get a question to do with "inevitable" we must define whether we mean destined to happen or unavoidable after a certain point. With this economic crash has many possible meanings, none can be called wrong and given that qeltar never told us what defenition he was using I choose the onbe Ilargely use.

 

no way were nats worth 300 based on demand, they are one of the most common slayer drops, quick to make and quick to buy, so why were they 300each when law runes were the same but considerably rarer?

 

 

First, if nats weren't worth 300 based on demand, nobody would have bought them for 300. Simple as that.

 

 

 

Second, nats are *not* common slayer drops -- they are far less common as drops than deaths and bloods, for example.

 

 

 

Third, laws were usually over 300.

 

 

Because merchants were constantly circulating bids, mostly between each other, creating a false view of what was going on. If you wanted to buy nats for 280/290 each you COULDN'T on the forums because that was merchant land, but on world 1/2 the banks around all the servers you could. The GE removed this inefficiency and people can now buy for the TRUE value for a VERY common item.

 

 

The efficiency issue is valid, but has nothing to do with price manipulation. Merchants charged more because it took time for them to accumulate smaller quantities of items, and people were willing to pay more to buy 10k or 20k of nats at once rather than buying them 50 or 100 at a time.

 

 

I still don't think heres been a crash even of prices because I have only seen a few things that have dropped 10% or more in a couple of days(has anyone got information pertaining to this or a link to any? Because I can't even remember the old price ranges for things like super energy pots).

 

 

 

If you can't remember the old prices then how can you say there hasn't been a crash? That doesn't make any sense at all.

 

 

 

I do remember the old prices and so do most others, and the crash in prices is very real. Just a few examples:

 

 

 

Super energy pots: used to be 1.5k to 2k each; I have bought them as cheap as 500.

 

 

 

Snapdragon seeds: before, up to 40k each, now 25k or so.

 

 

 

Sara brews: I've bought them as low as 1.1k each; no joke.

 

 

 

Ranarrs and prayer pots: Down at least 30% if not more.

 

 

 

Coal: used to be 190-200, dipped down into the 150s before recovering.

 

 

 

Iron ore: down from 100-110 to 70 or so.

 

 

 

Maple logs: down from 60-70 to 40.

 

 

 

Sharks: down from 900 or so to 650 or thereabouts.

 

 

 

There are HUNDREDS of other examples.

 

And it is just plain fact that merchants bought low(from banks) and sold high (on forums) it doesn't even matter if they were organised or not (my feeling is they were) the same principal applies.

 

 

That's not price manipulation, it's arbitrage.

 

 

 

Only one contention: I slay quite regularly and I can say I've definitely gotten natures as drops more often than deaths or bloods, far more often in fact.

 

 

 

Also I haven't seen those prices but yes that in fact is a crash of rather large proportions (some of the reductions are incredible). To be fair I rarely buy any of those things and have only been selling strength pots and super energies (which where at 1300 last i checked-5 days ago I think). I bought 1000 coal for 180 each a couple days ago.

 

 

 

The fact that some prices are 'recovering' would suggest a balance between demand and supply has been met and the price we see now is 'correct', if this is the case and the new 'balanced' price is stable BUT differs from the previously accepted price ranges then what are the reasons for this discrepancy?

[*]

 

... The current glut of sellers makes this an excellent opportunity to stock up on high-quality goods at incredible prices.

 

 

 

 

That's unintentionally funny.

 

 

 

The GE is great for raw materials. I love being able to order up ores and bars whilst I chop wood. And the recent [bleep]es in yew and mage logs prices are a woodchopper's dream.

 

 

 

The GE is lousy for finished goods, though. What to do with all those iron plates, green dhide sets and gold amulets? Sell on the GE? Har.

 

 

 

The GE cannot create demand where there is none.

 

 

 

But there is still the intrinsic value of these items - aka the high alchemy value. All it takes is a few nats and a fire staff and it's still payday. =D>

 

 

 

EDIT - For example, right now addy plates are 9984 in the GE, as many as you can afford. Guess what? That's the high alch price. Guess what? I can now power train magic at the GE for only the cost of nats. Ahh, what an opportunity. :D

 

END EDIT

 

 

 

EDIT 2 - OMG I just realized thats not what the high alch price used to be. It was 7680 previously...?!?!?

 

END EDIT 2

 

 

 

I tried putting some of my potion stock up there and have not seen a price for anything that I would accept. I will use my pots myself rather than dump them on the GE for next-to-nothing.

 

 

 

I wouldn't call the current situation a crash - the goods do have the same intrinsic value they always had.

Whoa!

 

I have recently quit, but I do come check out Tip.It every couple of days and wow!

 

I had no idea of a runescape Market Crsh.

 

Another great read qeltar, keep em coming!

[*]

 

... The current glut of sellers makes this an excellent opportunity to stock up on high-quality goods at incredible prices.

 

 

 

 

That's unintentionally funny.

 

 

 

The GE is great for raw materials. I love being able to order up ores and bars whilst I chop wood. And the recent [bleep]es in yew and mage logs prices are a woodchopper's dream.

 

 

 

The GE is lousy for finished goods, though. What to do with all those iron plates, green dhide sets and gold amulets? Sell on the GE? Har.

 

 

 

The GE cannot create demand where there is none.

 

 

 

But there is still the intrinsic value of these items - aka the high alchemy value. All it takes is a few nats and a fire staff and it's still payday. =D>

 

 

 

EDIT - For example, right now addy plates are 9984 in the GE, as many as you can afford. Guess what? That's the high alch price. Guess what? I can now power train magic at the GE for only the cost of nats. Ahh, what an opportunity. :D

 

END EDIT

 

 

 

EDIT 2 - OMG I just realized thats not what the high alch price used to be. It was 7680 previously...?!?!?

 

END EDIT 2

 

 

 

I tried putting some of my potion stock up there and have not seen a price for anything that I would accept. I will use my pots myself rather than dump them on the GE for next-to-nothing.

 

 

 

I wouldn't call the current situation a crash - the goods do have the same intrinsic value they always had.

 

 

 

You can also buy green d'hide bodies at 4400 gp (min price) and alch them for 4680 gp. That way you even make a profit wile alching if you get nats below 280gp (not much of a problem with the current GE price)

great post, it's a shame that you don't even know what the [bleep] a crash is. Grab a thesaurus or wikipedia before you make a post like this again.

great post, it's a shame that you don't even know what the [bleep] a crash is. Grab a thesaurus or wikipedia before you make a post like this again.

 

 

 

never use wikipedia as a source :XD:

 

 

 

items will stabilize at a new price so i wouldn't think about it too much.

great post, it's a shame that you don't even know what the [bleep] a crash is. Grab a thesaurus or wikipedia before you make a post like this again.

 

 

 

never use wikipedia as a source :XD:

 

 

 

items will stabilize at a new price so i wouldn't think about it too much.

but but....wikipedia is god.. :shock:

 

 

 

never use wikipedia as a source :XD:

 

 

 

items will stabilize at a new price so i wouldn't think about it too much.

 

 

 

Good point, why use the largest and best encyclopedia in the world when we can just follow ReapMe's unsupported opinions instead...

 

 

 

never use wikipedia as a source :XD:

 

 

 

items will stabilize at a new price so i wouldn't think about it too much.

 

 

 

Good point, why use the largest and best encyclopedia in the world when we can just follow ReapMe's unsupported opinions instead...

 

 

 

Exactly when did "largest" suddenly become "the best"?

It should come as no suprise that ALL items that can be gathered on F2P world would suffer a decline in prices. You have far too many gatherers that for years had no convenient venue to sell with the best update F2P has ever experienced (outside the stronghold of security).

 

 

 

Now, on the opposite hand, with exception of rares, I think items that originate on members but can be sold on F2P (strength pots, treasure trails) are probably getting a boost in prices. Jagex could solve alot of member problems by opening up low level P2P items on F2P (examples would be low level potions, sharks, selected enchanted jewelry, etc.). With the GE, it would definately help F2P and P2P without the worry of merchants gumming up the works.

 

 

 

That leaves P2P items. As has been shown, end items (cooked sharks, potions, armor, rings, whatever) are probably going to suffer a dramatic decline in what was considered "standard" prices. Let's face it, you don't need too many sharks. How many are sold anyway. Part of this can be alleviated by allowing F2P to buy the items as stated above. Part of it is solved with time. We find out that players are willing to spend cash to level up, hence the end items sell for almost nothing.

 

 

 

Now that I think about it, that 5% limit that was moaned about by so many (including myself) was a pretty smart move. It definately slowed down deflation to where it would have been. Now it's a matter of finding out what players actually want to buy.

 

 

 

Still, it's nice to track progress. I think Jagex NEEDS to put tabbed screens on the NPC's that show current GE prices. I want to know going rates of Herbs, Secondaries and Finished potions. I want going Rates on Logs, Flax, Bowstrings, Bows and Crossbows. I want to know going rates on Ores, Bars and All armor sets. It should be simple, just tabbed screens. With that, bored players can put together a graph on price fluxuations. Eh, maybe in the future.

 

 

 

Till then, we're just going to have to wait till Jagex modifies Player to Player trading. I think it will be like the Duel Arena where you cannot trade outside the GE value ranges, or if you do, it'll be limited to a certain amount every 15 minutes.

yes, i agree with other people. this did not seem like a crash more like a deflation period. perhaps you might classify it as a crash but, its just a period of economical rest.

 

 

 

 

 

im sure things will become "over inflated" once again with time.

To boil this down: Its the PLAYERS who decide wether to buy, or NOT buy in the GE.

 

Seems like many have forgotton something called trading with eachother (already!).

 

 

 

So blaiming Jagex is lame. But hey, Qeltar wrote the post, why am I not surprised?

Amazingly good read. However, I'm holding on to my stash of items. I'm hoping the prices will rise before I find myself selling. So now I sit back, relax, and pk.

There is no crash or at least not what I would consider to be a "crash", all the prices that are falling can easily be explained by opportunity cost. Take 1k nature runes for example:

 

 

 

The cost of making them is cost of essence + the time taken to craft them + time taken to sell them.

 

 

 

I've made and sold literally millions of nats, and the relationship between time and price is crystal clear. If I charged 10 gp less (times when I was in a hurry, or simply wanted to get it over with because I hate selling stuff), it took me much less time to sell. For a huge change in price the sell out was instantaneous. This, as well as the success of merchants, only goes to show how much the time taken to sell a good is quite an important part of the opportunity cost.

 

 

 

So what happens when you, not only decrease, but almost completely NEGATE the opportunity cost? The price decreases of course! This applies for all goods that take time to sell. Why do you think armor or weapons haven't decreased? Because the time taken to sell is a very small percentage of the price as opposed to raw/processed materials that have a high selling cost.

 

 

 

Sellers have had goods decrease in price by a lot, but is this a crash? No! Only some items have decreased, and if you've bought/sold these items frequently then you'd realize how this all makes sense. Saying that there is a loss of 30 gp on a random good because of the GE is very misleading because it doesn't take into account the cost (in time) of selling which is no longer needed. This means that, therefore, sellers are not spending as much time selling on forums and therefore they are spending more time gathering the materials that they are most efficient at and when more people are making more stuff, supply shifts to the right which leads to a decrease in price. How is this a crash? There's nothing wrong, nobody is out begging on the street, in fact a lot of people are thrilled that they don't have to spend time selling (although some of those people also complain about the decrease in price because they just want benefits with no downside). All that to say that the sellers are certainly NOT in a state of chaos. If the good simply isn't worth providing, they will switch to something else (and given the economic structure of this game, that's incredibly easy to do).

 

 

 

Also, don't forget that that a lot of buyers are extremely happy about this update. It saves a lot of time on their end as well. There is no "crisis" on the buyers end.

 

 

 

Magic training to end all magic training: High Alchemy. A classic case of hyper-inflation. Less items and more money. Considering the items back up the gold's worth, GP became less valuable and prices increased. This was invisible of course, and also manipulated by merchants who simply preached "inflation!" to justify prices.

 

 

 

Do you even know what hyper-inflation is? It's when the value of the gp decreases by 500% or more in short period of time. Has that happened in runescape? Obviously not. What we have in our game is a controlled amount of inflation where the benefits greatly outweigh the costs. The introduction of alchemy also provided many important jobs for skillers. The objective of price stability was slightly affected for a huge gain in the objective of full employment. Besides, even if gp was "overinflated", introducing a method to reduce the opportunity cost of production will certainly not reverse that.

 

 

 

never use wikipedia as a source :XD:

 

 

 

items will stabilize at a new price so i wouldn't think about it too much.

 

 

 

Good point, why use the largest and best encyclopedia in the world when we can just follow ReapMe's unsupported opinions instead...

 

 

 

Exactly when did "largest" suddenly become "the best"?

 

 

 

Never, why do you ask?

 

So blaiming Jagex is lame. But hey, Qeltar wrote the post, why am I not surprised?

 

 

 

Very little of what I wrote blames Jagex for anything, which you would know if you bothered to actually read it with a reasonable ability to comprehend simple English.

 

 

 

But hey, FooK-a-ji wrote that post, so why am I not surprised?

 

There is no crash or at least not what I would consider to be a "crash", all the prices that are falling can easily be explained by opportunity cost.

 

 

Some? Sure.

 

 

 

All? Strongly disagree.

 

 

 

Bear in mind that most of the price drops are across the entire market, not just the GE.

 

 

 

Also, they have affected items that were never hard to buy or sell before the GE. So clearly opportunity cost was never an issue there.

 

 

So what happens when you, not only decrease, but almost completely NEGATE the opportunity cost? The price decreases of course!

 

 

A certain level of price drops was expected, but what we are seeing now, IMO, far outstrips anything that can be explained simply by this aspect.

 

 

Sellers have had goods decrease in price by a lot, but is this a crash? No! Only some items have decreased, and if you've bought/sold these items frequently then you'd realize how this all makes sense.

 

 

It's not just "some items", Solidus.. it is a very large number of items, across virtually all market segments, many with drops in price of over 50% in a couple of weeks. That's a crash.

 

 

There's nothing wrong, nobody is out begging on the street, in fact a lot of people are thrilled that they don't have to spend time selling...

 

 

Has nothing to do with whether it is a crash or not.

 

 

 

never use wikipedia as a source :XD:

 

 

 

items will stabilize at a new price so i wouldn't think about it too much.

 

 

 

Good point, why use the largest and best encyclopedia in the world when we can just follow ReapMe's unsupported opinions instead...

 

 

 

Exactly when did "largest" suddenly become "the best"?

 

 

 

Never, why do you ask?

 

 

 

ok then, i guess all items will plummet til they reach 1 gp /end sarcasm. most items on ge have already reached a point where they won't lower anymore. that will be the new stable price. then what do ya know, it's not crashing anymore and it will be the norm.

 

yes let's all use your opinion and follow ReapMe

 

 

 

o ya he asked because you put "largest and best"