3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[Numismaster]

Didn't realize that my post would generate so much discussion. :thumbsup:

 

Thanks for all the interesting insight into GE sniping. Although I don't currently have the cash to attempt sniping anything really cool, I'll keep these tricks in mind should I get there someday.

 

New question: There was discussion on this thread about a year ago regarding a possible phat crash (mostly for the lower 3 phats). Instead of that happening, partyhats have steadily increased in both GE and street value while most other rares/expensive items (excluding crackers and half-wines) have dropped in value (relatively speaking). As a result of the way that Runescape has evolved, do you think partyhats will continue to rise indefinitely or is there a limit to this madness (max cash perhaps)?

 

For your viewing pleasure:

[hide]NOTE: The vertical scale is not consistent, thus "flattening" the price graph a little (it should look steeper).

 

 

:ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes: :ohnoes: [/hide]

 

Theoretically, if all the partyhats rose to max cash in GE value, would their street values increase or disappear? Since they would all have the same GE value, their respective street values should be solely based on color rarity and color demand rather than potential profit as a long term investment. But could (or would) they even be traded anymore due to trade restrictions (can you trade above the max cash limit if both sides are balanced)?

 

Thanks for considering! :)

[SixFootOne]

I do believe there must be something sinister going on in terms of some sort of bot sniping thing. Personally, I have tried many times to obtain a fury kit via the g.e. staying up very late and once getting in an offer about 9 seconds after it updated - which I thought was pretty good odds by my standards, and was expecting a fury kit later that day, but even that couldn't get me a fury kit!

 

I blame bots ';....;'

 

 

From my experience sniping even within 5 seconds of ge update is slow. I made about 5 attempts at sniping one with all offers within 4 seconds and even some to as close to the update as humanly possible and only 1 went through (as in i was fully paying attention while camping and the ge updated).

 

 

 

>Implying that the Bots don't actually exist.

 

Hahahaohwow.jpg

 

Have you been to GE recently, and seen the 'bot forums' at all?

 

How did he in any way shape or form imply anything other then BOTS. He said "i blame bots" :mellow:

 

 

 

 

New question: There was discussion on this thread about a year ago regarding a possible phat crash (mostly for the lower 3 phats). Instead of that happening, partyhats have steadily increased in both GE and street value while most other rares/expensive items (excluding crackers and half-wines) have dropped in value (relatively speaking). As a result of the way that Runescape has evolved, do you think partyhats will continue to rise indefinitely or is there a limit to this madness (max cash perhaps)?

 

 

 

Theoretically, if all the partyhats rose to max cash in GE value, would their street values increase or disappear? Since they would all have the same GE value, their respective street values should be solely based on color rarity and color demand rather than potential profit as a long term investment. But could (or would) they even be traded anymore due to trade restrictions (can you trade above the max cash limit if both sides are balanced)?

 

Thanks for considering! :)

 

 

 

One of the things i have learned about the runescape market is whenever the community seems to have a grasp of what's going on and can semi accurately predict what will happen jagex throws us an updated to turn everything upside down (introduction of the grand exchange making party hats junk, pvp statues, random updates affecting the economy ect. and no i am not implying jagex does this on purpose)I see partyhat prices to continue onward unless some sort of major changes comes along.

 

 

Which reminds me, back when jagex announced mechscapes (stellar dawn now right?) they said the community would be cannibalized (i think that's the word they chose). If and when stellar dawn is released, i have a feeling if the game really takes hold and the runescape community is split between games that the market can become very volatile. Whether that means even more of a price hike due to people quitting or a price drop because many players who once wanted the hats left.

 

 

If partyhats were to become max cash ge i can see some of the lower 3 falling since their street is around there. Based off of past items getting closer to their street price, they usually crash before that happens.

[Sir_Kurity]

Are u sure for that??

Do you just run around being an idiot?

[goat_cake]

I'm not familiar with the rare market atm but just curious is divine/ely buyable in ge right now?

[SixFootOne]

I'm not familiar with the rare market atm but just curious is divine/ely buyable in ge right now?

 

 

Short answer is no. Although there are a few pictures and posts floating around of people getting elys given time. On top of that, they have been recently losing street(recently as in within the past month) and people speculate that in the near future street may be completely gone.

[Boeg3]

To Fix the GE;

 

Make the GE respond to Supply and Demand. Use the Supply/Demand ratio to update the GE; if there's 3 thousand buy offers for a Jug of Half Wine in the GE (at max), and only 1 sell offer (at max), make the Half Wine update.

 

I stopped reading this thread after the above, so if i repeat anyone im srry

 

How will that^ "solution" go with merching clans?

With the right item, these clans of best/worst case scenario; 2-300 people with 50mil to 2bil purchacing power each could potentially put offer up for 2.5k to 190k whips at max. Which is faaaaaaar out of the supply"range".

this is all in theory tho; but what would your "solution" do to the price of whips if something like this happend?

I'll tell you: it would possible double, triple, quadriple (and i could go on) the price of whips in a single update.

[Assume Nothing]

To Fix the GE;

 

Make the GE respond to Supply and Demand. Use the Supply/Demand ratio to update the GE; if there's 3 thousand buy offers for a Jug of Half Wine in the GE (at max), and only 1 sell offer (at max), make the Half Wine update.

 

I stopped reading this thread after the above, so if i repeat anyone im srry

 

How will that^ "solution" go with merching clans?

With the right item, these clans of best/worst case scenario; 2-300 people with 50mil to 2bil purchacing power each could potentially put offer up for 2.5k to 190k whips at max. Which is faaaaaaar out of the supply"range".

this is all in theory tho; but what would your "solution" do to the price of whips if something like this happend?

I'll tell you: it would possible double, triple, quadriple (and i could go on) the price of whips in a single update.

 

Do you know how a manipulation clan functions? Beyond the simple "Oh, the leaders stock up before the clan and dump early"?

 

It relies extremely highly on confidence. No one is going to be confident if their 'manipulation item' is going to be near worthless again within a few hours, especially knowing the 4 hour trade limits. Everyone would try to dump far more earlier than they do now, because GE would theoretically update that much faster. It would create very short term flukes, and the clan leaders wouldn't have the same advantage they have now.

 

And my proposal had nothing to do with the 5% min/max, it's to do with the amount of GE updates a day.

 

Even if in your 'example', if whips went up so much, the demand would quickly dwindle, and it would flood the GE with supply once again, and the price quickly nosedives back down.

 

I think it could work, but you've only quoted the first part of my proposal, hence the bias. The mechanics of the GE is why it fails. It prioritizes someone mere seconds faster than someone else, and 1gp difference in offers would also give a huge advantage/disadvantage.

 

I think we're drifting a little off topic, but it does tie in, because the mechanics of the GE is why street prices even exist.

[Numismaster]

Soo . . . I saw the green h'ween mask go up a few days ago and I decided to buy a blue mask (had to pay 2 mil above mid >.<). Are masks coming out out of their current dip already? Also, any predictions on santa hats increasing in response to the upcoming holidays? And does anyone here know the value of rares in RSC?

[sciencemile]

I think Christmas is still a good time to "buy in" to the rares trade; since people who invested in santas during the off-season with expectations of making a profit during the holiday season are going to want to cash in on their investment, opportunities to buy into the rares market are relatively plentiful even though they're more expensive this time of year.

[Kirbyallstar]

On that subject of sniping in the GE I'd like to show something that happened to me:

 

 

So after several failed attempts at sniping the bow, one day I logged in to see the GE updated a while ago and I thought "what the hell, I'll still put an offer in". Well on the very last day before the sara bow updated again, I managed to snipe one. The previous times I attempted to snipe my offers were in 1-11 seconds after the update and I never sniped one. So how was I able to get a bow so late after the GE updated, and also many days later?

 

Other notes: the street price of the bow is catching up to the GE price, with the street price being 25-35m

[sumondskull6]

On that subject of sniping in the GE I'd like to show something that happened to me:

 

 

So after several failed attempts at sniping the bow, one day I logged in to see the GE updated a while ago and I thought "what the hell, I'll still put an offer in". Well on the very last day before the sara bow updated again, I managed to snipe one. The previous times I attempted to snipe my offers were in 1-11 seconds after the update and I never sniped one. So how was I able to get a bow so late after the GE updated, and also many days later?

 

Other notes: the street price of the bow is catching up to the GE price, with the street price being 25-35m

 

That's why, because the street and ge price are closing in, so some people are just GEing them, just like Elly's. They'll more than likely crash very very soon =/

[Kirbyallstar]

I don't care if it crashes, this was an item I wanted to use, not profit. I was just confused on why I actually got it when I was almost an hour late in placing my order. Other people are still trying to buy them based on the forums so I was positive there are still snipers attempting to pick the bow up.

[sumondskull6]

I don't care if it crashes, this was an item I wanted to use, not profit. I was just confused on why I actually got it when I was almost an hour late in placing my order. Other people are still trying to buy them based on the forums so I was positive there are still snipers attempting to pick the bow up.

 

What would you possibly use it for?

EEE + soul split, even while ranging, is more than enough healing?

[Kirbyallstar]

I don't care if it crashes, this was an item I wanted to use, not profit. I was just confused on why I actually got it when I was almost an hour late in placing my order. Other people are still trying to buy them based on the forums so I was positive there are still snipers attempting to pick the bow up.

 

What would you possibly use it for?

EEE + soul split, even while ranging, is more than enough healing?

 

Check my stats bro

[Squisher_33]

street price of divine = rank 1 dung

[Star_Fox]

Divine is more skewed to purple than yellow atm although I can't speculate that it will steadily hold up its street price for long.

[Triquos]

Hey guys, do you think bandos godsword will rise again? I hear all godswords are crashing because of chaotic weapons and the korasi's sword special but aren't sure. Will bandos godsword be 20m+ again? I'm kind of worried :-/ thanks in advance!

[Assume Nothing]

Hey guys, do you think bandos godsword will rise again? I hear all godswords are crashing because of chaotic weapons and the korasi's sword special but aren't sure. Will bandos godsword be 20m+ again? I'm kind of worried :-/ thanks in advance!

 

Simple answer; No.

 

Why would it rise again? In Economics, there's something called a 'Substitute good'. This makes the demand curve for the first product shift to the left (less demand), therefore the price equilibrium would be lower.

 

Chaotic weapons are the substitute good. It's better, stronger, and is free.

 

The only thing that keeps the price up of Bgs is Corp teams.

[Kirbyallstar]

What's the deal with santas?

 

[Bassy]

Hey guys, do you think bandos godsword will rise again? I hear all godswords are crashing because of chaotic weapons and the korasi's sword special but aren't sure. Will bandos godsword be 20m+ again? I'm kind of worried :-/ thanks in advance!

 

Simple answer; No.

 

Why would it rise again? In Economics, there's something called a 'Substitute good'. This makes the demand curve for the first product shift to the left (less demand), therefore the price equilibrium would be lower.

 

Chaotic weapons are the substitute good. It's better, stronger, and is free.

 

The only thing that keeps the price up of Bgs is Corp teams.

 

I disagree on your reasoning. I'm pretty sure it's mainly because everyone who just gets 75 Attack immediately thinks Godswords are where it's at, so they're willing to pay the "low" price of a BGS over the others. That little misinformation is our most likely culprit. :rolleyes:

[SixFootOne]

Disregard this misread something

[Ruggig]

So hey guys i have found an old account with a red partyhat, a santa hat, 2 green masks and a red mask on it (Im happy as hell).

How should i trade stuff to get a divine?

[Assume Nothing]

Hey guys, do you think bandos godsword will rise again? I hear all godswords are crashing because of chaotic weapons and the korasi's sword special but aren't sure. Will bandos godsword be 20m+ again? I'm kind of worried :-/ thanks in advance!

 

Simple answer; No.

 

Why would it rise again? In Economics, there's something called a 'Substitute good'. This makes the demand curve for the first product shift to the left (less demand), therefore the price equilibrium would be lower.

 

Chaotic weapons are the substitute good. It's better, stronger, and is free.

 

The only thing that keeps the price up of Bgs is Corp teams.

 

I disagree on your reasoning. I'm pretty sure it's mainly because everyone who just gets 75 Attack immediately thinks Godswords are where it's at, so they're willing to pay the "low" price of a BGS over the others. That little misinformation is our most likely culprit. :rolleyes:

 

A small portion of misinformed 'noobs' doesn't keep the demand curve high for very long. Unless you could prove there are a lot of these 'noobs' in proportion to those who actually know what a Chaotic can do, I'm still right.

[Quyneax]

That proportion is not so small as you may think (hope). And since you can't prove that wrong either, Bassy is also right.

[Assume Nothing]

That proportion is not so small as you may think (hope). And since you can't prove that wrong either, Bassy is also right.

 

Prove me wrong. He made unsourced, unfounded claims, I stated facts. Who's wrong here?