Yeah, if Jagex makes the 200m reward rare enough it shouldn't have a huge effect on the economy.

 

Still think it's bogus and should be removed. But hey, it turns the SoF into more of a lottery.

 

If you want to be optimistic, think about the real world value of 200m. If that money can be traded, in can be RWT. If it can be RWT, that means that the SoF is gambling, because of the potential but not guaranteed cash pay out. Which would hopefully cause the SoF to be nerfed or removed.

 

That being said, I'm not quite so optimistic that will happen. I'm hoping for it kinda in the same way I'm hoping I win that 200m. (I've never bought spins, but I've decided not to boycott it entirely. Especially since I don't think the SoF was a problem until a week or so after released when they started selling spins.)

 

I actually wrote about that in a TIF times article a while ago. There is already legal standing for a virtual item to be considered property due to its worth.

Yeah, if Jagex makes the 200m reward rare enough it shouldn't have a huge effect on the economy.

 

Still think it's bogus and should be removed. But hey, it turns the SoF into more of a lottery.

 

If you want to be optimistic, think about the real world value of 200m. If that money can be traded, in can be RWT. If it can be RWT, that means that the SoF is gambling, because of the potential but not guaranteed cash pay out. Which would hopefully cause the SoF to be nerfed or removed.

 

That being said, I'm not quite so optimistic that will happen. I'm hoping for it kinda in the same way I'm hoping I win that 200m. (I've never bought spins, but I've decided not to boycott it entirely. Especially since I don't think the SoF was a problem until a week or so after released when they started selling spins.)

 

I actually wrote about that in a TIF times article a while ago. There is already legal standing for a virtual item to be considered property due to its worth.

 

Deson't apply towards untradeables, including the SoF divine and such. Also, I was initially under the impression that the money from the SoF was only useable in shops and such. Plus, 200m is worth significantly more then 10m.

Yeah, if Jagex makes the 200m reward rare enough it shouldn't have a huge effect on the economy.

 

Still think it's bogus and should be removed. But hey, it turns the SoF into more of a lottery.

 

If you want to be optimistic, think about the real world value of 200m. If that money can be traded, in can be RWT. If it can be RWT, that means that the SoF is gambling, because of the potential but not guaranteed cash pay out. Which would hopefully cause the SoF to be nerfed or removed.

 

That being said, I'm not quite so optimistic that will happen. I'm hoping for it kinda in the same way I'm hoping I win that 200m. (I've never bought spins, but I've decided not to boycott it entirely. Especially since I don't think the SoF was a problem until a week or so after released when they started selling spins.)

 

I actually wrote about that in a TIF times article a while ago. There is already legal standing for a virtual item to be considered property due to its worth.

 

Deson't apply towards untradeables, including the SoF divine and such. Also, I was initially under the impression that the money from the SoF was only useable in shops and such. Plus, 200m is worth significantly more then 10m.

 

No the money from teh SOF can be spent anywhere, not sure where you heard otherwise.

I think its easy to ignore the issue of actual RWT which probably causes far more problems to the economy anyway and if you look at the traffic that RWT sites get there are far more people going there than are buying spins on the SoF. This is again a slippery slope but it won't in my opinion have a large impact as long as it is in the super rare slot.

So my joke guess on 200m gold being on the wheel in celebration was spot on, just that the gold is real gp. It's a bit disturbing they're really starting to push it. First a tradeable discontinued item, now 200m gold. It would be ungodly rare to receive it, but it is still irksome they even considered this idea.

 

Curious where the serial escalation will take it to next. Should I make guesses or avoid jinxing it?

200 milliion gp? Assuming one is not botting, how many game hours on average would it take to raise that (barring the occasional money dupe glitch in the Crucible). Anyway, seems like a pointless update that takes away from an equally pointless milestone (as if it were possible). Five times gp, assuming the averages are correct, just means most players trying for $200 in spins will get about 20m gp although just hitting 10m slot once bumps that up to 70m gp.

 

Personally, I think Jagex is experimenting and seeing what brings out the best purchases. I'm expecting to see more experience lamps leading up to the double xp weekend now (likely a big seller). My money is on the fish mask week since they offered a reasonable chance to get a soon to be discontinued tradeable item. The part that concerns me is they'll look at the data, think that releasing rares is the way to go, and then screw up that already screwed up market. After that they'll be flabbergasted as to why people don't buy spins for rares anymore.

 

Kind of wish Jagex will release the data on how many spins are being sold. I assume that official financial reports might be able to reveal this later so perhaps next year we'll all know if RS players actually do have a lot of disposable income.

Because it's very likely that more than a handful of people will win 200m on the Squeal :roll:

 

This will probably cause less damage to the economy than players exploiting glitches, but it's much easier to condemn Jagex than them.

Sad but true, but what I've started to notice around the community isn't a pretty sight...

 

People that hate the SoF are tired of trying to fight it, and slowly are becoming complacent... It's hardly a surprise this is happening though, you can't rage every single time there is an update to the SoF (the reactions on my 2nd article on this kinda showed that)...

 

Now, I know that it's a world of difference between being OK with the SoF, and silently resenting it... But if you get bludgeoned enough with something (weekly in this case), you eventually become desensitized and your opposition to it will eventually and inevitably become de facto silenced...

 

Watch the changing landscape, fellas... You're basically witnessing a slow-mo trainwreck...

Sad but true, but what I've started to notice around the community isn't a pretty sight...

 

People that hate the SoF are tired of trying to fight it, and slowly are becoming complacent... It's hardly a surprise this is happening though, you can't rage every single time there is an update to the SoF (the reactions on my 2nd article on this kinda showed that)...

 

Now, I know that it's a world of difference between being OK with the SoF, and silently resenting it... But if you get bludgeoned enough with something (weekly in this case), you eventually become desensitized and your opposition to it will eventually and inevitably become de facto silenced...

 

Watch the changing landscape, fellas... You're basically witnessing a slow-mo trainwreck...

 

You make it sound like that's a bad thing.

I think its easy to ignore the issue of actual RWT which probably causes far more problems to the economy anyway and if you look at the traffic that RWT sites get there are far more people going there than are buying spins on the SoF. This is again a slippery slope but it won't in my opinion have a large impact as long as it is in the super rare slot.

Illegal RWT doesn't directly increase the money supply, unlike legal rwt.

 

If that's hard to grasp, here's an example:

 

A goldfarming bot kills 12k frost dragons. 12k frost dragon bones enter the game.

A player trades 175m for the 12k frost dragon bones to get 95 prayers. Nothing is lost or gained, wealth is just transferred.

The goldfarming company that owns the bot sells the 175m for real life money. The gp remains in the game and real life wealth is transferred.

 

So RWT doesn't have any direct negative effects. It makes training cheaper. At worst, people have to find a new way to make money.

 

Jagex endorsed real world trading does have negative effects though. They can simply spawn gp, which devalues the currency every time someone purchases gold. Jagex has to constantly pull money out of the economy in order to keep the money supply constant (or whatever is best for the economy at that particular moment), and they're simply not capable of that.

 

Legal RWT is much worse than illegal RWT, at least as far as economics goes.

 

@Nukemarine:

 

I hope that the costumes sold the most spins, because those are so much better than Gp, lamps, and rares.

I think its easy to ignore the issue of actual RWT which probably causes far more problems to the economy anyway and if you look at the traffic that RWT sites get there are far more people going there than are buying spins on the SoF. This is again a slippery slope but it won't in my opinion have a large impact as long as it is in the super rare slot.

Illegal RWT doesn't directly increase the money supply, unlike legal rwt.

 

If that's hard to grasp, here's an example:

 

A goldfarming bot kills 12k frost dragons. 12k frost dragon bones enter the game.

A player trades 175m for the 12k frost dragon bones to get 95 prayers. Nothing is lost or gained, wealth is just transferred.

The goldfarming company that owns the bot sells the 175m for real life money. The gp remains in the game and real life wealth is transferred.

 

So RWT doesn't have any direct negative effects. It makes training cheaper. At worst, people have to find a new way to make money.

 

Jagex endorsed real world trading does have negative effects though. They can simply spawn gp, which devalues the currency every time someone purchases gold. Jagex has to constantly pull money out of the economy in order to keep the money supply constant (or whatever is best for the economy at that particular moment), and they're simply not capable of that.

 

Legal RWT is much worse than illegal RWT, at least as far as economics goes.

 

@Nukemarine:

 

I hope that the costumes sold the most spins, because those are so much better than Gp, lamps, and rares.

Yes many bots are mining disposable items such a herbs and bones. However, MANY bots do create wealth as the end product will be gp when everything is alc'd or sold to the NPC. What do you think happens to all those dragon hides or adamant/mithril ore? Bots have a much greater impact on the economy just from their scale. It's even possible to calculate gp/hour if you can assume every resource is being hogged by bots.

 

As for what sells spins, it'd be nice if it was the costumes. I doubt it, but it'd be the best justification for SoF.

 

PS: Which would sell more spins - 5x gp weekend or 5x xp lamps weekend? I think the latter and I'm willing to bet we'll see something like that soon.

I think its easy to ignore the issue of actual RWT which probably causes far more problems to the economy anyway and if you look at the traffic that RWT sites get there are far more people going there than are buying spins on the SoF. This is again a slippery slope but it won't in my opinion have a large impact as long as it is in the super rare slot.

Illegal RWT doesn't directly increase the money supply, unlike legal rwt.

 

If that's hard to grasp, here's an example:

 

A goldfarming bot kills 12k frost dragons. 12k frost dragon bones enter the game.

A player trades 175m for the 12k frost dragon bones to get 95 prayers. Nothing is lost or gained, wealth is just transferred.

The goldfarming company that owns the bot sells the 175m for real life money. The gp remains in the game and real life wealth is transferred.

 

So RWT doesn't have any direct negative effects. It makes training cheaper. At worst, people have to find a new way to make money.

 

Jagex endorsed real world trading does have negative effects though. They can simply spawn gp, which devalues the currency every time someone purchases gold. Jagex has to constantly pull money out of the economy in order to keep the money supply constant (or whatever is best for the economy at that particular moment), and they're simply not capable of that.

 

Legal RWT is much worse than illegal RWT, at least as far as economics goes.

 

@Nukemarine:

 

I hope that the costumes sold the most spins, because those are so much better than Gp, lamps, and rares.

Yes many bots are mining disposable items such a herbs and bones. However, MANY bots do create wealth as the end product will be gp when everything is alc'd or sold to the NPC. What do you think happens to all those dragon hides or adamant/mithril ore? Bots have a much greater impact on the economy just from their scale. It's even possible to calculate gp/hour if you can assume every resource is being hogged by bots.

 

As for what sells spins, it'd be nice if it was the costumes. I doubt it, but it'd be the best justification for SoF.

 

PS: Which would sell more spins - 5x gp weekend or 5x xp lamps weekend? I think the latter and I'm willing to bet we'll see something like that soon.

 

I disagree. Yes, some bots produce GP as the end goal, via high-alchemy, and selling items to shops. However, that is already a problem due to game mechanics where the gold is generated that way.

 

The difference, is that the bots have to generate that gold in the same way as players would. Some bots will be running that, but bots that grab hides, bones, and so on (especially items that don't end as high-alch bait) are not creating new money.

 

Jagex when they spawn gold instantly create money. This would have a far more massive impact on the economy than anything bots do to create gold.

People that hate the SoF are tired of trying to fight it, and slowly are becoming complacent... It's hardly a surprise this is happening though, you can't rage every single time there is an update to the SoF (the reactions on my 2nd article on this kinda showed that)...

 

90% of my friendschat knows how much I hate that thing, and I refuse to accept it. People can preach to me about it not being as bad as I think, but it won't change my mind.

Yes many bots are mining disposable items such a herbs and bones. However, MANY bots do create wealth as the end product will be gp when everything is alc'd or sold to the NPC. What do you think happens to all those dragon hides or adamant/mithril ore? Bots have a much greater impact on the economy just from their scale. It's even possible to calculate gp/hour if you can assume every resource is being hogged by bots.

 

As for what sells spins, it'd be nice if it was the costumes. I doubt it, but it'd be the best justification for SoF.

 

PS: Which would sell more spins - 5x gp weekend or 5x xp lamps weekend? I think the latter and I'm willing to bet we'll see something like that soon.

I disagree. Yes, some bots produce GP as the end goal, via high-alchemy, and selling items to shops. However, that is already a problem due to game mechanics where the gold is generated that way.

 

The difference, is that the bots have to generate that gold in the same way as players would. Some bots will be running that, but bots that grab hides, bones, and so on (especially items that don't end as high-alch bait) are not creating new money.

 

Jagex when they spawn gold instantly create money. This would have a far more massive impact on the economy than anything bots do to create gold.

No, bots don't generate items the same way players do. A bot can run with precision 24/7 which is a big difference. One can then multiply that effect across various resources and various servers. You can dismiss this as something players can do, but players cannot do that. There's only so many players. If you're getting 10x that in bots which can work 16x more efficiently than players on resources, it's as if Jagex created that material out of thin air.

 

I'm no fan of the alchemy spell and it's done lots of damage to the economy as you create a artificially high price for items not worth that much (battlestaffs and rune armor being big offenders). However, it does exists and it is used on products that were the result of bot labor. That cannot be dismissed as less impact that Jagex's poor odds in the SoF.

Sad but true, but what I've started to notice around the community isn't a pretty sight...

 

People that hate the SoF are tired of trying to fight it, and slowly are becoming complacent... It's hardly a surprise this is happening though, you can't rage every single time there is an update to the SoF (the reactions on my 2nd article on this kinda showed that)...

 

Now, I know that it's a world of difference between being OK with the SoF, and silently resenting it... But if you get bludgeoned enough with something (weekly in this case), you eventually become desensitized and your opposition to it will eventually and inevitably become de facto silenced...

 

Watch the changing landscape, fellas... You're basically witnessing a slow-mo trainwreck...

 

It's cool if you hate the SoF and think its the devil incarnate etc, but you're just starting to come across as some kind of condescending preacher who thinks people who are indifferent to it are part of the problem.

 

I've never bought spins and I probably never will, but at the same time I neither hate the SoF or love it. You could argue I'm being apathetic towards the whole thing but at the end of the day, Jagex have made it pretty clear it's not going anywhere and there's clearly no limit to what they're willing to add to it. It's a marketing tool, pure and simple, the best way you can protest is to not use you're free spins.

 

In the meantime ill be using my 2 free spins a day to make hundreds of millions...o wait. The sensationalism in this thread is staggering.

It's not that I hate SoF it's that I hate how much they try to make us buy spins.

[hide]

Yes many bots are mining disposable items such a herbs and bones. However, MANY bots do create wealth as the end product will be gp when everything is alc'd or sold to the NPC. What do you think happens to all those dragon hides or adamant/mithril ore? Bots have a much greater impact on the economy just from their scale. It's even possible to calculate gp/hour if you can assume every resource is being hogged by bots.

 

As for what sells spins, it'd be nice if it was the costumes. I doubt it, but it'd be the best justification for SoF.

 

PS: Which would sell more spins - 5x gp weekend or 5x xp lamps weekend? I think the latter and I'm willing to bet we'll see something like that soon.

I disagree. Yes, some bots produce GP as the end goal, via high-alchemy, and selling items to shops. However, that is already a problem due to game mechanics where the gold is generated that way.

 

The difference, is that the bots have to generate that gold in the same way as players would. Some bots will be running that, but bots that grab hides, bones, and so on (especially items that don't end as high-alch bait) are not creating new money.

 

Jagex when they spawn gold instantly create money. This would have a far more massive impact on the economy than anything bots do to create gold.

No, bots don't generate items the same way players do. A bot can run with precision 24/7 which is a big difference. One can then multiply that effect across various resources and various servers. You can dismiss this as something players can do, but players cannot do that. There's only so many players. If you're getting 10x that in bots which can work 16x more efficiently than players on resources, it's as if Jagex created that material out of thin air.

 

I'm no fan of the alchemy spell and it's done lots of damage to the economy as you create a artificially high price for items not worth that much (battlestaffs and rune armor being big offenders). However, it does exists and it is used on products that were the result of bot labor. That cannot be dismissed as less impact that Jagex's poor odds in the SoF.

[/hide]

 

I meant that bots perform the same actions as players. Whether they can do it more efficiently than players isn't relevant. Regardless of whether there were bots, players aim for high skills and therefor generate large amounts of non-disposable items. Bots create items faster over time than players because they can do so endlessly. The only bots which actually generate money are ones which use high-alchemy or similar methods of creating NEW gp in the game. This does take real time, and a player can do this (if not as efficiently.)

 

It is not the same as if Jagex were to spawn money, as this would take zero time at all, and wouldn't be destroying any items via high-alchemy. High-alchemy is bad, but it does stabilize item prices. Without high-alchemy the game needs a way to destroy items, otherwise they become valueless as there will always be more rune armor generated than "used". High-alchemy is bad because it causes inflation, but it does solve the inflated non-consumable finishing skill products. Without this, it becomes even less worth training smithing, crafting, and so forth.

 

I am not dismissing the impact of bots, I am saying you are underestimating the issue of minting new gold directly as player demand. Bots have a limit to how much gold they can produce per bot. And the number of bots is effectively limited as well (technically maxing out at 2k per world, but practically lower than this). Jagex has no such limit, (beyond artificial limits created by themselves)

 

Bots have a larger overall impact on the game, but jagex minting gp whenever they wanted based on player demand has a much larger impact on the value of gp than bots ever have.

[hide]

Yes many bots are mining disposable items such a herbs and bones. However, MANY bots do create wealth as the end product will be gp when everything is alc'd or sold to the NPC. What do you think happens to all those dragon hides or adamant/mithril ore? Bots have a much greater impact on the economy just from their scale. It's even possible to calculate gp/hour if you can assume every resource is being hogged by bots.

 

As for what sells spins, it'd be nice if it was the costumes. I doubt it, but it'd be the best justification for SoF.

 

PS: Which would sell more spins - 5x gp weekend or 5x xp lamps weekend? I think the latter and I'm willing to bet we'll see something like that soon.

I disagree. Yes, some bots produce GP as the end goal, via high-alchemy, and selling items to shops. However, that is already a problem due to game mechanics where the gold is generated that way.

 

The difference, is that the bots have to generate that gold in the same way as players would. Some bots will be running that, but bots that grab hides, bones, and so on (especially items that don't end as high-alch bait) are not creating new money.

 

Jagex when they spawn gold instantly create money. This would have a far more massive impact on the economy than anything bots do to create gold.

No, bots don't generate items the same way players do. A bot can run with precision 24/7 which is a big difference. One can then multiply that effect across various resources and various servers. You can dismiss this as something players can do, but players cannot do that. There's only so many players. If you're getting 10x that in bots which can work 16x more efficiently than players on resources, it's as if Jagex created that material out of thin air.

 

I'm no fan of the alchemy spell and it's done lots of damage to the economy as you create a artificially high price for items not worth that much (battlestaffs and rune armor being big offenders). However, it does exists and it is used on products that were the result of bot labor. That cannot be dismissed as less impact that Jagex's poor odds in the SoF.

[/hide]

 

I meant that bots perform the same actions as players. Whether they can do it more efficiently than players isn't relevant. Regardless of whether there were bots, players aim for high skills and therefor generate large amounts of non-disposable items. Bots create items faster over time than players because they can do so endlessly. The only bots which actually generate money are ones which use high-alchemy or similar methods of creating NEW gp in the game. This does take real time, and a player can do this (if not as efficiently.)

 

It is not the same as if Jagex were to spawn money, as this would take zero time at all, and wouldn't be destroying any items via high-alchemy. High-alchemy is bad, but it does stabilize item prices. Without high-alchemy the game needs a way to destroy items, otherwise they become valueless as there will always be more rune armor generated than "used". High-alchemy is bad because it causes inflation, but it does solve the inflated non-consumable finishing skill products. Without this, it becomes even less worth training smithing, crafting, and so forth.

 

I am not dismissing the impact of bots, I am saying you are underestimating the issue of minting new gold directly as player demand. Bots have a limit to how much gold they can produce per bot. And the number of bots is effectively limited as well (technically maxing out at 2k per world, but practically lower than this). Jagex has no such limit, (beyond artificial limits created by themselves)

 

Bots have a larger overall impact on the game, but jagex minting gp whenever they wanted based on player demand has a much larger impact on the value of gp than bots ever have.

Furthermore, when Jagex directly introduces GP into the game, it causes inflation (where everything in the economy is affected), whereas bots only affect certain industries.

 

If inflation isn't controlled, it makes it difficult for a lot of people to earn money. Bots only affect people who earn money inefficiently.

[hide]

[hide]

Yes many bots are mining disposable items such a herbs and bones. However, MANY bots do create wealth as the end product will be gp when everything is alc'd or sold to the NPC. What do you think happens to all those dragon hides or adamant/mithril ore? Bots have a much greater impact on the economy just from their scale. It's even possible to calculate gp/hour if you can assume every resource is being hogged by bots.

 

As for what sells spins, it'd be nice if it was the costumes. I doubt it, but it'd be the best justification for SoF.

 

PS: Which would sell more spins - 5x gp weekend or 5x xp lamps weekend? I think the latter and I'm willing to bet we'll see something like that soon.

I disagree. Yes, some bots produce GP as the end goal, via high-alchemy, and selling items to shops. However, that is already a problem due to game mechanics where the gold is generated that way.

 

The difference, is that the bots have to generate that gold in the same way as players would. Some bots will be running that, but bots that grab hides, bones, and so on (especially items that don't end as high-alch bait) are not creating new money.

 

Jagex when they spawn gold instantly create money. This would have a far more massive impact on the economy than anything bots do to create gold.

No, bots don't generate items the same way players do. A bot can run with precision 24/7 which is a big difference. One can then multiply that effect across various resources and various servers. You can dismiss this as something players can do, but players cannot do that. There's only so many players. If you're getting 10x that in bots which can work 16x more efficiently than players on resources, it's as if Jagex created that material out of thin air.

 

I'm no fan of the alchemy spell and it's done lots of damage to the economy as you create a artificially high price for items not worth that much (battlestaffs and rune armor being big offenders). However, it does exists and it is used on products that were the result of bot labor. That cannot be dismissed as less impact that Jagex's poor odds in the SoF.

[/hide]

 

I meant that bots perform the same actions as players. Whether they can do it more efficiently than players isn't relevant. Regardless of whether there were bots, players aim for high skills and therefor generate large amounts of non-disposable items. Bots create items faster over time than players because they can do so endlessly. The only bots which actually generate money are ones which use high-alchemy or similar methods of creating NEW gp in the game. This does take real time, and a player can do this (if not as efficiently.)

 

It is not the same as if Jagex were to spawn money, as this would take zero time at all, and wouldn't be destroying any items via high-alchemy. High-alchemy is bad, but it does stabilize item prices. Without high-alchemy the game needs a way to destroy items, otherwise they become valueless as there will always be more rune armor generated than "used". High-alchemy is bad because it causes inflation, but it does solve the inflated non-consumable finishing skill products. Without this, it becomes even less worth training smithing, crafting, and so forth.[/hide]

 

I am not dismissing the impact of bots, I am saying you are underestimating the issue of minting new gold directly as player demand. Bots have a limit to how much gold they can produce per bot. And the number of bots is effectively limited as well (technically maxing out at 2k per world, but practically lower than this). Jagex has no such limit, (beyond artificial limits created by themselves)

 

Bots have a larger overall impact on the game, but jagex minting gp whenever they wanted based on player demand has a much larger impact on the value of gp than bots ever have.

I'm not going to dismiss the impact of Jagex putting 200m on the wheel. I assume that's 200 hours of effort in the current economy which is a lot by any standard. What we don't know is how extremely rare this award is. If we had a rate, we can calculate how much money is coming in. Assume every 1k spins generates 5 mill gp on average. If every day there's 2 mill spins then 10 bill gp is entering the economy from SoF. That sounds like a lot, and that's just using predictable common, uncommon and rare results.

 

For the 200m award, if it's 1/100k spins then on average 20 people are going to win a day (more if non-members are allowed to win that prize). If it's 1/1mill spins then only 2 people a day win. We can only guess and I'd wager the rate is so low that no one is going to figure it out without Jagex's help. Now, how much impact 400mill to 4billl gp has on the economy? Can't be much more than what already exists.

 

With bots, it's harder to calculate but not impossible. You can look at resources that become alchemy later (yew and magic logs, dragon leather, ore). We know which spots are heavily botted, so we can assume a perfect respawn/harvest ratio for each resource. From there, its just math to find out the gp that'll eventually be generated. I haven't done the math, but if it's less than 10 bill gp, then I'd have to concede Jagex is messing up the economy more than bots (though not hogging resources).

 

If something is wrong with my logic, please enlighten me. I'm trying to avoid the gut feeling on this. In my gut, SoF is a bad direction despite it's impact being minimal.

 

The items will be lost on death. 200M is a different case.

 

*If not one of your items you choose to keep. And frankly, you'd have to being a [bleep]ing idiot to not.

Connection lost - please wait, attempting to reestablish.

200 milliion gp? Assuming one is not botting, how many game hours on average would it take to raise that (barring the occasional money dupe glitch in the Crucible). Anyway, seems like a pointless update that takes away from an equally pointless milestone (as if it were possible). Five times gp, assuming the averages are correct, just means most players trying for $200 in spins will get about 20m gp although just hitting 10m slot once bumps that up to 70m gp.

 

Personally, I think Jagex is experimenting and seeing what brings out the best purchases. I'm expecting to see more experience lamps leading up to the double xp weekend now (likely a big seller). My money is on the fish mask week since they offered a reasonable chance to get a soon to be discontinued tradeable item. The part that concerns me is they'll look at the data, think that releasing rares is the way to go, and then screw up that already screwed up market. After that they'll be flabbergasted as to why people don't buy spins for rares anymore.

 

Kind of wish Jagex will release the data on how many spins are being sold. I assume that official financial reports might be able to reveal this later so perhaps next year we'll all know if RS players actually do have a lot of disposable income.

 

Keep in mind, one kid blowing a hundred bucks on spins is worth over a years membership. How these things tend to work isn't that a lot of people waste money on them, it's that a small minority of people waste a LOT of money on them.

 

Very rough math here. Assume 10% of RS spends $100 on spins in a month. I know that RS at one point had 1m members, so let's say there's at least 700k members. So, 70k people spend $100 in a month. That comes out to 7m. Now, assuming membership is $7 a month, they make 5m in a month off membership dues and 7m off of SoF.

 

Now, keep in mind these are just ass pulls. It's late at night and I can't be bothered to look up numbers. But if you want to get an idea, figure out, say, what percentage of Farmville players actually PAY for farmville. And how much they spend. Apply those kind of numbers to RS, assume RS players wouldn't spend as much (because I'd imagine significantly more of farmville players would be adults with full time jobs then RS), but assume roughly the same percentage paying. Should give a rough idea of how successful the SoF is.

 

Also, keep in mind the major metric Jagex (or rather, the investors behind Jagex) will be looking at is profit. I'd be surprised if their profit didn't jump significantly with the release of the SoF. One person spends $100 on spins in a month, that's more then 10 non-spin buying members would pay Jagex in a month.

 

I have to agree tho, that this 200m reward will likely be too low to significantly effect the economy, especially with how prevalent alching is.

Puffing in money disconnected from the structure of production is worse then alchemy.

 

See alchemy is a necessary part of the economy for several skills, and there is a balanced number of money sinks to deal with high alchemy inflation. Evidenced by prices always falling except for the Restricted trade period with pvp statues.

 

Puffing in money into existance like that has really damaging effects on the game. SoF may or may not be as bad as pvp inflation because items are not being deleted and high money rewards are rare

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Yes many bots are mining disposable items such a herbs and bones. However, MANY bots do create wealth as the end product will be gp when everything is alc'd or sold to the NPC. What do you think happens to all those dragon hides or adamant/mithril ore? Bots have a much greater impact on the economy just from their scale. It's even possible to calculate gp/hour if you can assume every resource is being hogged by bots.

 

As for what sells spins, it'd be nice if it was the costumes. I doubt it, but it'd be the best justification for SoF.

 

PS: Which would sell more spins - 5x gp weekend or 5x xp lamps weekend? I think the latter and I'm willing to bet we'll see something like that soon.

I disagree. Yes, some bots produce GP as the end goal, via high-alchemy, and selling items to shops. However, that is already a problem due to game mechanics where the gold is generated that way.

 

The difference, is that the bots have to generate that gold in the same way as players would. Some bots will be running that, but bots that grab hides, bones, and so on (especially items that don't end as high-alch bait) are not creating new money.

 

Jagex when they spawn gold instantly create money. This would have a far more massive impact on the economy than anything bots do to create gold.

No, bots don't generate items the same way players do. A bot can run with precision 24/7 which is a big difference. One can then multiply that effect across various resources and various servers. You can dismiss this as something players can do, but players cannot do that. There's only so many players. If you're getting 10x that in bots which can work 16x more efficiently than players on resources, it's as if Jagex created that material out of thin air.

 

I'm no fan of the alchemy spell and it's done lots of damage to the economy as you create a artificially high price for items not worth that much (battlestaffs and rune armor being big offenders). However, it does exists and it is used on products that were the result of bot labor. That cannot be dismissed as less impact that Jagex's poor odds in the SoF.

 

I meant that bots perform the same actions as players. Whether they can do it more efficiently than players isn't relevant. Regardless of whether there were bots, players aim for high skills and therefor generate large amounts of non-disposable items. Bots create items faster over time than players because they can do so endlessly. The only bots which actually generate money are ones which use high-alchemy or similar methods of creating NEW gp in the game. This does take real time, and a player can do this (if not as efficiently.)

 

It is not the same as if Jagex were to spawn money, as this would take zero time at all, and wouldn't be destroying any items via high-alchemy. High-alchemy is bad, but it does stabilize item prices. Without high-alchemy the game needs a way to destroy items, otherwise they become valueless as there will always be more rune armor generated than "used". High-alchemy is bad because it causes inflation, but it does solve the inflated non-consumable finishing skill products. Without this, it becomes even less worth training smithing, crafting, and so forth.[/hide]

 

I am not dismissing the impact of bots, I am saying you are underestimating the issue of minting new gold directly as player demand. Bots have a limit to how much gold they can produce per bot. And the number of bots is effectively limited as well (technically maxing out at 2k per world, but practically lower than this). Jagex has no such limit, (beyond artificial limits created by themselves)

 

Bots have a larger overall impact on the game, but jagex minting gp whenever they wanted based on player demand has a much larger impact on the value of gp than bots ever have.

I'm not going to dismiss the impact of Jagex putting 200m on the wheel. I assume that's 200 hours of effort in the current economy which is a lot by any standard. What we don't know is how extremely rare this award is. If we had a rate, we can calculate how much money is coming in. Assume every 1k spins generates 5 mill gp on average. If every day there's 2 mill spins then 10 bill gp is entering the economy from SoF. That sounds like a lot, and that's just using predictable common, uncommon and rare results.

 

For the 200m award, if it's 1/100k spins then on average 20 people are going to win a day (more if non-members are allowed to win that prize). If it's 1/1mill spins then only 2 people a day win. We can only guess and I'd wager the rate is so low that no one is going to figure it out without Jagex's help. Now, how much impact 400mill to 4billl gp has on the economy? Can't be much more than what already exists.

 

With bots, it's harder to calculate but not impossible. You can look at resources that become alchemy later (yew and magic logs, dragon leather, ore). We know which spots are heavily botted, so we can assume a perfect respawn/harvest ratio for each resource. From there, its just math to find out the gp that'll eventually be generated. I haven't done the math, but if it's less than 10 bill gp, then I'd have to concede Jagex is messing up the economy more than bots (though not hogging resources).

 

If something is wrong with my logic, please enlighten me. I'm trying to avoid the gut feeling on this. In my gut, SoF is a bad direction despite it's impact being minimal.

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We aren't talking about the same thing. I was not referring specifically to the gold on the SoF rewards. I was referring to a situation of if jagex created a cash shop where players directly spend real money for gp in game (with little to no limitation on amounts). Yes, bots have a much larger impact than the SoF does (now). But bots can never have as much impact as Jagex selling gold, because bots have to create that gold, Jagex can just mint it instantly. While bots can do it in less real time than players, they have a limit of 24hrs a day per bot. Jagex does not have this limit. I agree with you then, if you were talking about the current impact of the SoF. I completely disagree if you fail to see how bots have a larger impact than Jagex straight-up selling gold.

I'm not a big fan of the SoF. Every time it's about to land on something good it moves 1 to the right and it's usually the crappiest item. Maybe when I get something good I'll like it more, haha. Also, the fact that jagex sells spins for irl money is kind of annoying. I don't like that marketing strategy for any game tbh.

I'm not a big fan of the SoF. Every time it's about to land on something good it moves 1 to the right and it's usually the crappiest item. Maybe when I get something good I'll like it more, haha. Also, the fact that jagex sells spins for irl money is kind of annoying. I don't like that marketing strategy for any game tbh.

 

I personally would never spend my real money on spins in the game. Because there are things in life that are more worth spending my money on.

 

I do agree that the ability to buy spins is a bad idea, and no matter what the people who work at Jagex say I look at it as real world trading.