2007 - Old School RuneScape... You Vote! - [It's Here!]

[Estoc]

I don't understand, does anyone have any real data on how much of an investment jagex is making on this? Why are so many people implying they're wasting millions on this or something? Maybe I missed something...

 

It's not that people are saying they are wasting money, just that it's uncertain. The only thing we do know is that the one legacy server Jagex has made is empty. I trust Jagex in the matter, if they say they can make money off of it then so be it, but the average scaper is another matter entirely. This is why people vote no, not because they hate the people that want a 2007 server, but because they have no reason to think it will be successful.

[Robert_R]

Is there any legitimate reason to not vote for this? It seems like there's no downside.

I don't want to play 2007scape so I'm not voting for it \:D/

[mikeg0477]

Is there any legitimate reason to not vote for this? It seems like there's no downside.

I don't want to play 2007scape so I'm not voting for it \:D/

I'm with you.

[Slayer132005]

"The more I see, the less I know for sure" - John Lennon.

 

Introduction: Hello. I'm a fellow player working on a degree in finance with ambitions to be an investment banker. I've been playing runescape since 2005 and received my completionist cape last February I've come out of recent retirement to analyze the possibilities of Runescape's return to glory, and why the general population is critical of Mod Mark's proposal. Hopefully, everyone reading this has formed their opinions based off of reputable information of facts and knowledge rather than misconceptions created by a majority.... Assuming this answer is no, I will break down the information fairly, and do appreciate criticisms of my views.

 

Issue Summary: A majority of players currently don't support the Old School Servers due to fear in regards to: (1) allocated workforce of member funds (2) ingame economy (3) community separation (4) content.

 

Objective: I will address each issue, and if you are replying to my post, please include separate responses per issue.

 

(1) Allocation of member's funds:

According to the Runescape Highscores as of today, there are approximately 796k players who aren't spambots or free trials (source http://services.rune...pe=0&page=36200). However, these numbers include great amounts of unkown bots, which we cannot account for but may assume at the rate of inflation are greater than 10% of the total players, further reducing the number to 716k players. Clearly, this number is less than the 750k. Jagex knows, and understands this, and does not intend to support a game they cannot fund.

 

With 50k supported members, jagex expects to see 750k USD in additional monthly revenue 9 million added yearly revenue. Obviously we need to stop right here and think about where this money is going; and to simplify your thinking without influencing your opinion, I'll lay the choices out unformally:

(a). Insight Venture Capital (acting through jagex) may distribute revenue to shareholders. Why else would they maintain their stake in runescape?

(b). Invest into untrained staff. Depending on the job type, the salary varies. The average US computer science major salary is 100k/yr. Customer support 44-68k. To support 50k possible players.

©. Lie to players about staff. Known facts that are currently moot: (i) Staff revived a 07 backup in their break time (ii) Two Insight Venture partner managers sit on the Jagex board, anticipating and executing all decisions - the decision to bring back a prior revision may have "been the idea of MMG", but was approved by the board

(d). Expect players to "be hyped", and not play. The likelihood of all voting players to maintain active in two runescape economies is small. Many people may also want to join the hype for a month, then return to the live game with loads more content.

 

Beyond the lowest bracket, players and jagex alike have only to look forward to financially with:

(a). A lower cost of payment - with a higher rate on return (Jagex's saftey-net of return is 40% on this number).

(b). A promise of support to combat bots. Historically, jagex has failed on this matter.

©. A larger player base and supporting economy. More players, comes a polarization in attitudes, however.

 

--- With provided evidence, it should be pretty clear jagex will absolutely have funds to support the old school game without hindering the ability of the live game.

 

(2) Economic breakdown

Since 2006's Construction still and the removal of the temporary PVP worlds/environments, a lack of effort has been dedicated towards deflating the economy. Jagex's policy have changed frequently, but recent armour prices and skyrocketing rare costs are indicative of inflation. Additionally, a large influx of bots and dropping Gold/Million rates on the black market indicate a decreasing value on gold, furthering the devaluing of the live runescape's economy.

 

What does this mean in an economic sense? As you might have guessed, the game's real-life-value is dropping. The effort of cutting down trees, or preforming a slayer assignment once significantly decreased in value of (1) your time invested (2) your membership cost and (3) your game-gold-investment. As a player with little say in a privately owned company (IVP is private), the only choices have been to (1) adapt or (2) quit.

 

Let's consider the economic implications behind the Old School Runescape enviornment:

(a). Everyone is zeroed. There is an extensive amount of content to be played and skills to be levelled, the choices are seemingly endless.

(b). No items or gold exist. This creates an infinite value on all items, and a negative infinite value of gold. Why would you want gold unless you were trying to buy items?

©. All competetion is fair. There are no goldselling websites where people can get ahead on day 1. In fact, there will not be a grand exchange, and trading with a bot does not need to occur unless one makes the concious decision.

(d). There are no microtransactions.

(e). Your live-levels will not be imported. This is a hard hitter. However, consider the fact you are currently tied with everyone else for the #1 rank. You are not behind anyone, and can absolutely catch up beginning day 1. In fact, not taking advantage of the vote will cost you money in the future if you chose not to vote.

(f). The marginal value of your work will exponentially decrease. This is indicative of the law of diminishing returns, which states as more people begin to preform a task (in this case, play the game), the returns (items produced) will decrease until they are unnecessary.

 

--- With provided evidence, this point is completely up for debate. Time is a large factor of people's lives, but, the economic benefits of skilling, or doing combat, early on will be great due to minimalized competion in a small market. The longer one waits, the less of an economic advantage one has in order to join.

 

(3) Community Seperation

This should have happened years ago, whether or not people will admit it. A large majority of players have always considered old-school player killing as a sole motivation to play the game, but as long as they were pleased, appreciated and considered skilling and content updates. However, it is absolutely incorrect to consider the skiller as "more valuable" to the economy than the player killer, or vice versa. Over the past years, the divide has only been greater, and with a majority of updates being skill-related-content, player killers do not flame the updates requesting they had not happened, even though they do not play them.

 

Why is the same principle not reciprocal when player killers require an update?

 

This community has largely left the game due to neglect and moved to private servers, which provide zero income to jagex, and to your development. By choosing to abstain from voting to spite player killers, the community becomes more divided than the game itself. By giving player killers a choice, you allow the ones on whichever game you chose to be more complacent with their choice. If they don't like it, they can switch games entirely. If they can't deal with either game, its clear they're simply not going to enjoy runescape player killing on a third server.

 

However, lets look beyond player killers into the case of skillers. Many of whom are not player killers, and if they were player killers in 2007, they would be in their upper teens and beyond. A mature, responsible playerbase would be keen to a strong community which old school players enjoyed.

 

(4) Content

 

Simply put, the content in the Old School servers is vast. Old School runescape relied on player communication and community involvement to achieve some great things. World 2 Falador park, World 1 Varrok Bank, World 9 castlewars, these are all examples of the inspiration that caused "themed worlds" in the live game, which were grossly unneeded. Player to player trading has disapeared almost completely with the grandexchange in the live version.

 

In fact, a majority of playerbase which is rarely talked about anymore are the "merchants". Many of these players enjoyed increasing their wealth, and the subsequent updates over the years have destryoed the reason they have played runescape. In fact, many people may play the Old School version in order of seeking billions through the frenzy that is trading.

 

For those unable to see falador world 2 in the days prior to the GE, a vote would allow you to see the most impressive player-driven markets of any MMO.

 

 

In Summary:

 

There are many factors to consider when contemplating whether to vote or not. However, spreading information about voting for the return of the Old School game should be fair. I have seen too many arguments based off of erroneous fallacies, and to be honest, it has driven me to do the proper research on the issue.

 

Thanks for taking the time to read this post, I hope its provided you with some ideas beyond those you've already seen.

 

Slayer13

[Hedgehog]

The issue I see with rs 2007 is people buying items in the 2007 version with either real life money or 2013 gp. This doesn't seem fair at all and makes me kind of mad.

 

That said, I would like to see this become a thing. I'll never log into it, but at least a lot of the people who bot because 2012 and 2013 rs suck will either leave or try it for a bit and then realize how bad it was 6 years ago. Not only that, but Jagex's revenue will increase if it actually succeeds, especially if it doesn't end up being free. Perhaps they could even open up an items store and sell pking weapons for like $10 each. If that keeps real microtransactions out of real rs, then I'm all for it.

[demby123]

tl;dr

 

EDIT: I agree with all of those points, buti've always felt as though the player base was never some majority filled with skillers, but a relatively equal split between pkers, skillers(those who focused on skill achievements primarily), adventurers(jack of all trades), monster hunters,merchants, casual players, and specialists(bug finders, youtube heros,ect). The only real issue was who actually fit in what group, since they all depend on eachother in some way or another, or at least they did.

[Vezon Dash]

The issue I see with rs 2007 is people buying items in the 2007 version with either real life money or 2013 gp. This doesn't seem fair at all and makes me kind of mad.

 

That said, I would like to see this become a thing. I'll never log into it, but at least a lot of the people who bot because 2012 and 2013 rs suck will either leave or try it for a bit and then realize how bad it was 6 years ago. Not only that, but Jagex's revenue will increase if it actually succeeds, especially if it doesn't end up being free. Perhaps they could even open up an items store and sell pking weapons for like $10 each. If that keeps real microtransactions out of real rs, then I'm all for it.

 

That doesn't sound like a bad idea. I remember at one time they tossed around the idea of a server where you could hack for all 99s or any items you wanted.

[Saradomin_Mage]

The issue I see with rs 2007 is people buying items in the 2007 version with either real life money or 2013 gp. This doesn't seem fair at all and makes me kind of mad.

 

That said, I would like to see this become a thing. I'll never log into it, but at least a lot of the people who bot because 2012 and 2013 rs suck will either leave or try it for a bit and then realize how bad it was 6 years ago. Not only that, but Jagex's revenue will increase if it actually succeeds, especially if it doesn't end up being free. Perhaps they could even open up an items store and sell pking weapons for like $10 each. If that keeps real microtransactions out of real rs, then I'm all for it.

 

That doesn't sound like a bad idea. I remember at one time they tossed around the idea of a server where you could hack for all 99s or any items you wanted.

They're not going to introduce microtransactions into these 2007 servers

 

[hide]Unless they go back on their word in typical J-style :P[/hide]

[Hedgehog]

The issue I see with rs 2007 is people buying items in the 2007 version with either real life money or 2013 gp. This doesn't seem fair at all and makes me kind of mad.

 

That said, I would like to see this become a thing. I'll never log into it, but at least a lot of the people who bot because 2012 and 2013 rs suck will either leave or try it for a bit and then realize how bad it was 6 years ago. Not only that, but Jagex's revenue will increase if it actually succeeds, especially if it doesn't end up being free. Perhaps they could even open up an items store and sell pking weapons for like $10 each. If that keeps real microtransactions out of real rs, then I'm all for it.

 

That doesn't sound like a bad idea. I remember at one time they tossed around the idea of a server where you could hack for all 99s or any items you wanted.

They're not going to introduce microtransactions into these 2007 servers

 

[hide]Unless they go back on their word in typical J-style :P[/hide]

If they're going to release microtransactions, they should do it on 2007 servers. Apparently, a number of private servers offer them, and I expect many people would leave those for 2007 rs. Not to mention that a lot of people would be willing to pay good money for a bit of a head start.

[jayc3399]

Hour 1 - 14k

Hour 2 - 27k (+13k -1k)

Hour 3 - 36k (+9k -4k)

Hour 4 - 44k (+8k -1k)

Hour 5 - 52k (+8k =)

Hour 6 - 59.4k (+7.4k -0.6k)

Hour 7 - 66.2k (+6.8k - 0.6k)

Hour 8 - 73k (+6.8k =)

Hour 9 - 79.5k (+6.5k -0.3k)

Hour 10 - 85.2k (+5.7k -0.8k)

Hour 11 - 90.3k (+5.1k -0.6k)

Hour 12 - 94.3k (+4k -1.1k)

Hour 13 - 97.2k (+2.9k -1.1k)

Hour 16? - 104.7k (+7.5k ??)

[Slayer132005]

The issue I see with rs 2007 is people buying items in the 2007 version with either real life money or 2013 gp. This doesn't seem fair at all and makes me kind of mad.

 

That said, I would like to see this become a thing. I'll never log into it, but at least a lot of the people who bot because 2012 and 2013 rs suck will either leave or try it for a bit and then realize how bad it was 6 years ago. Not only that, but Jagex's revenue will increase if it actually succeeds, especially if it doesn't end up being free. Perhaps they could even open up an items store and sell pking weapons for like $10 each. If that keeps real microtransactions out of real rs, then I'm all for it.

 

That doesn't sound like a bad idea. I remember at one time they tossed around the idea of a server where you could hack for all 99s or any items you wanted.

They're not going to introduce microtransactions into these 2007 servers

 

[hide]Unless they go back on their word in typical J-style :P[/hide]

If they're going to release microtransactions, they should do it on 2007 servers. Apparently, a number of private servers offer them, and I expect many people would leave those for 2007 rs. Not to mention that a lot of people would be willing to pay good money for a bit of a head start.

 

If that logic were true, wouldn't the same people be flocking so solomon and yelps for microtransactions in the live game?

 

Your direction is also unclear. Are you implying that Old School servers had microtransactions or need them? What about the legitimate skillers who have silently sat through the past years of updates, letting skills get easy and said nothing?

[Reliable]

To be honest, I hope it doesn't hit 500k, but only hits 250k - 499k.

 

$5 is a very reasonable cost to pay for the extra server, it puts more money in Jagex's pockets to go towards the main game, and (more a dream than a probable reality), it MAY limit the number of bots that join the server, considering the additional cost (prob not, but one can dream).

 

If the $5 a month is the final outcome, with a decent amount of players it can actually benefit the current game rather than take away from it, making it more of a win/win for players.

[The_Avatar]

I had a whole speech typed out, but I figured it would fall on deaf ears. I'll simply say in reaction to this whole fiasco, that I'm glad I quit playing this game when I did, and I'll fondly remember the years I did spend with it.

[NukeMarine]

To be honest, I hope it doesn't hit 500k, but only hits 250k - 499k.

 

$5 is a very reasonable cost to pay for the extra server, it puts more money in Jagex's pockets to go towards the main game, and (more a dream than a probable reality), it MAY limit the number of bots that join the server, considering the additional cost (prob not, but one can dream).

 

If the $5 a month is the final outcome, with a decent amount of players it can actually benefit the current game rather than take away from it, making it more of a win/win for players.

 

I'm not worried about members having access. I never found RSC to be a drain on the community and I don't see this being one either. I'm more hesitant about F2P being allowed which will mean enormous amount of goldmining bots. Along with that, if it's just a member's benefit like RSC (well, when it was open) I don't want F2P temp membership and all the bots that come with it to access 2007scape. The exception I would accept would be F2P accounts with a certain amount of hours in game or certain number of months membership. I won't play the game, but I would like to see what the economy would be like without unfettered F2P or seven years of economic legacy.

 

That said, will the biggest skill be 66 Hunter with chinchompas or 85 slayer for the whip or something else? Barrows will be big since those will be the best armor sets.

[Estoc]

Whips will once again be the best weapon. With chins you can just train the normal way and still achieve 99 range, with whips it's either buy one or you'll never have the same amount of dps. Chins will overtake whips in the long term since they are used up and whips will "constantly" by coming into the game, though it's uncertain if anyone will be playing to see that day.

[Octarine]

Wow votes really bottomed out overnight. Surprised it stalled so early, I guess we'll see a slight recovery over the weekend with a few more people playing anyway.

[Ginger_Warrior]

I'm not anticipating a large increase over the weekend. Firstly, because a lot of people who play weekends only also play on Friday night (as opposed to Sunday evening), and secondly because I don't think there's that many "weekend-only" players.

 

I think it will reach 250K. 500K? Not a chance. That's not an ideal result for me, but it's still one that's wholly acceptable. Bring it back, commit a small amount of resources to it, charge $5 for it. Fine by me.

[Barney.S]

http://www.wolframal...,e^(7109/1909))

 

 

current trend line and estimate (140,133 votes) R-value of 0.945.

obviously the graph should be asymptotic rather then crossing the axis and it doesn't account for changes due to human behavior (weekend, etc) but seeing as how we haven't seen any significant changes due to time zones etc. yet shouldn't be to big of a deal and I didn't really feel like messing with it.

 

edit: fixed because I don't remember what timezone I live in....

 

I just LOVE the fact that you are the first person to project an actual math based prediction of votes (not 5 votes/second or other laughable middle school arithmitic comparison) and all the fanboys just gazed over it like it was nothing. Only person who noticed it besides me was druv, who obviously has an decent understanding of mathematics as well.

 

Thank you for making that post.

 

According to that predicition we can safely assume the end result will be way below 200k - numbers don't lie, people do.

[Sy_Accursed]

Hour 1 - 14k

Hour 2 - 27k (+13k -1k)

Hour 3 - 36k (+9k -4k)

Hour 4 - 44k (+8k -1k)

Hour 5 - 52k (+8k =)

Hour 6 - 59.4k (+7.4k -0.6k)

Hour 7 - 66.2k (+6.8k - 0.6k)

Hour 8 - 73k (+6.8k =)

Hour 9 - 79.5k (+6.5k -0.3k)

Hour 10 - 85.2k (+5.7k -0.8k)

Hour 11 - 90.3k (+5.1k -0.6k)

Hour 12 - 94.3k (+4k -1.1k)

Hour 13 - 97.2k (+2.9k -1.1k)

...

Hour 16 - 104.7k (+7.5k) [Average for 3 hour block: +2.5k Decline from 13 to average: -0.4k]

...

Hour 21 - 110.8k (+6.1k) [Average for 5 hour block: +1.2k Decline from 16 average to average: -1.3k]

Hour 22 - 111.9k (+1.1k) [Decline from 21 average: -0.1k]

 

Dang that vote stalled faster than I thought it would, doesn't look like it ever recovered for peak time. I mean even with the American peak time hour 14-21 got less total votes that hour 1.

 

I'd aslo agree with above weekend spurt seems unlikely since to most the actual 'usable' weekend is leaving off time friday (so like 3-6pm depending) through to early-ish night sunday ready for monday (so like 9-11pm), which would imply most 'weekend players' have a likely already been on.

 

Edit: Added hour 22

[Randox]

Was actually thinking about the lack of micro, which would be a real attraction for me. I'd pay a few extra dollar a month to be in a live server without that junk. Hedge, you might have a point with it serving as something of a dump bin for certain activities. If they really take off, then one could hope they will draw fire from the real game, though in reality I think you will see the RWT industry expand, not divert. They'll just do their best to ruin both games at once, and I hate to think how much trouble it would be to try and bolt the, not entirely effective, anti bot system to that ancient version of the game (because it uses an entirely different game engine).

 

I am also finding myself tempted to vote for that first month free, which is more than I need. Without the GE, or the current graphics, I won't play. I'm not squinting at that tiny fixed pixel screen ever again (someone with a 2040 screen please take a picture of the 2 inch game window!), now am I bank standing. But I wouldn't mind taking a toddle around for old times sake, and I'm not interested paying what will probably be $5 for one hour. But I also despise being bribed.

 

Anyway, took a look for myself, saw we are getting the servers (now I know why people keep posting lists of numbers). Not at all surprised, though I was expecting it to take a little while longer to break 100k. I figure it will have to break 250 by the time this ends, but like others, I can't see it getting to 500, or even that close. I wouldn't expect the number to much more than double the initial rush, and that's over now.

[Sy_Accursed]

I figure it will have to break 250 by the time this ends, but like others, I can't see it getting to 500, or even that close. I wouldn't expect the number to much more than double the initial rush, and that's over now.

 

I wouldn't be so sure mathematical projections from 1am put the current voting rate curve at 140k votes by the end of the 14 days so as it stands even 250k seems like it's gonna be a stretch to hit.

[Estoc]

I figure it will have to break 250 by the time this ends, but like others, I can't see it getting to 500, or even that close. I wouldn't expect the number to much more than double the initial rush, and that's over now.

 

I wouldn't be so sure mathematical projections from 1am put the current voting rate curve at 140k votes by the end of the 14 days so as it stands even 250k seems like it's gonna be a stretch to hit.

 

Looks like people are going to get a chance to put their money where their mouth is.

[Krampell]

What I'm interested in to see is if the poll doesn't reach 250k (which with the current vote curve seems a little bit unlikely to me), are people actually going to be willing to pay $15/month to play it?

[Tim]

Im curious, will the accounts be separated skill-wise, like RSC is currently set. (Prob' most likely.)

[Sy_Accursed]

Hour 1 - 14k

Hour 2 - 27k (+13k -1k)

Hour 3 - 36k (+9k -4k)

Hour 4 - 44k (+8k -1k)

Hour 5 - 52k (+8k =)

Hour 6 - 59.4k (+7.4k -0.6k)

Hour 7 - 66.2k (+6.8k - 0.6k)

Hour 8 - 73k (+6.8k =)

Hour 9 - 79.5k (+6.5k -0.3k)

Hour 10 - 85.2k (+5.7k -0.8k)

Hour 11 - 90.3k (+5.1k -0.6k)

Hour 12 - 94.3k (+4k -1.1k)

Hour 13 - 97.2k (+2.9k -1.1k)

...

Hour 16 - 104.7k (+7.5k) [Average for 3 hour block: +2.5k Decline from 13 to average: -0.4k]

...

Hour 21 - 110.8k (+6.1k) [Average for 5 hour block: +1.2k Decline from 16 average to average: -1.3k]

Hour 22 - 111.9k (+1.1k) [Decline from 21 average: -0.1k]

Hour 23 - 113k (+1.1k =)