I'm sure you all agree... SURPRISING ANALYSIS - 4TH LINK

There's more to it than just inflation. There is the hysteria that is caused by incessant threads about it making it worse than it has to be. You also have people switching from gathering materials to 26king. Fewer and fewer materials are being brought into the game, and it seems obvious to me that at least some of the price increases are also the product of a fundamental change in the supply of many items. There has probably also been a shift in the demand for useful PvP items as well.

 

 

 

The bottom line is, we don't know how much of this is real inflation, and how much is due to other factors. Now granted, it all ties in to the 26k, but take the "hysteria" that has accompanied it - it makes people frantic to buy supplies now that they see themselves needing in the future, before the price goes even higher. This creates a huge [bleep]e in demand for things like bones and logs. And merchants play their part as well, because they will keep buying as prices continue to rise, creating an even larger artificial [bleep]e in demand.

 

 

 

In other words, it is likely that much of the inflation we're seeing isn't real. That's not to say there isn't a problem, but there's more to it than simple inflation by an influx of money.

You described exactly what I said here

Jagex should do something. I can see they try, they said that they are going to deal with price manipulation. But, they should do something with that stupid 26King! It's not only bad for prices, it looks stupid, AND i think it's misuse of PvP (Learn to PK :) )

And one question: Is it possible to get Dragon SQ from PvP? It has low price, and other half is like 700K+ in guild. :(

People, for one thing people say is bad, the inverse can also be true.

They say that the rising prices are bad for people with money. That is true. This artificial inflation does raise prices, and as we all know, rising prices or inflation devalues money.

But what of the deflation system that runescape operates on otherwise? The system goes something like this. When an item starts out, its price is very high, as the supply is a low number. When people start spawning these items in the economy, the price will gradually lower, until the demand meets the supply. Most of the items have done this. As somebody said a while back, rune 2h was once 1m.

What I'm saying is, the deflation system, which people seem to be saying is better, devalues items as opposed to money.

Now, I can think of two possible solutions. One of them is virtually impossible and based on the player base as a whole, and one is very simple and focuses on the individual.

1. Balance the economy perfectly so that the value of items and money stay exactly the same, and everyone can log out knowing what they have will be worth exactly the same when they log back in. This one is, like I said, virtually impossible. People would have to bring items and gold into the economy at the exact same rate, and everybody has to want items exactly the same amount each day. Basically, buying and selling would need to become impossible.

2. Just invest in items when there is inflation, and sell all your items and keep cash when there is deflation. Basically, this one is win/win. If you're worried about inflation in the economy, buy some items. That way you can rest at ease when you know that your items are only going to rise in price. If the price of items are going down, sell them, provided you don't need them of course. These tips are intended as a generalization and only for general deflation, not specific items dropping, as selling in that case would only crash the item.

There are probably flaws in what I've said, so feel free to flame me.

People, for one thing people say is bad, the inverse can also be true.

 

 

 

They say that the rising prices are bad for people with money. That is true. This artificial inflation does raise prices, and as we all know, rising prices or inflation devalues money.

 

 

 

But what of the deflation system that runescape operates on otherwise? The system goes something like this. When an item starts out, its price is very high, as the supply is a low number. When people start spawning these items in the economy, the price will gradually lower, until the demand meets the supply. Most of the items have done this. As somebody said a while back, rune 2h was once 1m.

 

 

 

What I'm saying is, the deflation system, which people seem to be saying is better, devalues items as opposed to money.

 

 

 

Now, I can think of two possible solutions. One of them is virtually impossible and based on the player base as a whole, and one is very simple and focuses on the individual.

 

 

 

1. Balance the economy perfectly so that the value of items and money stay exactly the same, and everyone can log out knowing what they have will be worth exactly the same when they log back in. This one is, like I said, virtually impossible. People would have to bring items and gold into the economy at the exact same rate, and everybody has to want items exactly the same amount each day. Basically, buying and selling would need to become impossible.

 

2. Just invest in items when there is inflation, and sell all your items and keep cash when there is deflation. Basically, this one is win/win. If you're worried about inflation in the economy, buy some items. That way you can rest at ease when you know that your items are only going to rise in price. If the price of items are going down, sell them, provided you don't need them of course. These tips are intended as a generalization and only for general deflation, not specific items dropping, as selling in that case would only crash the item.

 

 

 

There are probably flaws in what I've said, so feel free to flame me.

Negative inflation or the increase in the value of money has never happened in RS. You only had the gradual decrease of value in certain items. This depreciation in value only affects a small part of the economy. Inflation itself is not a bad thing either, but with the cash flow that RS is currently receiving will cause inflation to spiral out of control. The market will become way too unpredictable causing it to freeze due to the fact that noone knows if an item will rapidly rise and crash. It is why in real life there are laws and regulations.

Another problem with this rapid cash inflow is the trend that raw materials will no longer be worth obtaining. At an average of 1m/hr that people make with pvp, woodcutters will need to charge 4k/yew log and 8k/mage log in order to keep up with the cash inflow. Skills such as mining, woodcut, fishing, hunting, and runecrafting will all become dead skills. Trade would become frozen due to the fact that noone would want to hold onto a currency as unstable as the gp.

Since when have we been on the deflation system? It is always inflation, unless you want to quote items that have gradually lost their usefulness over time.

Not sure if this has been posted yet:

http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Grand_Exchange_Market_Watch/Common_Trade_Index

As you can see, inflation has shot through the roof since mid June. There's nearly as much in two weeks as in the year and a half prior, total.

I don't agree.

 

 

 

Pvp shouldn't become a money sink as you put it. Rather Jagex should just find a way to stop the 26k'ers.

 

 

 

People who enjoy PVP shouldn't be chastised because of a few non-PVPers who found a get rich quick scheme. Rather Jagex should be making a way to stop these people without harming the players who are finally being able to pk again.

This. Could that have been said better. :thumbup:

Actually I think you'll find that merchanting clans aren't doing anything to bring in the gp, they are just using price manipulation to make items cost more than they should. Coinshare, and Pking, are all bringing in excess amounts of gp. Thus, the actual currency (gp) is devalued, and the prices of items soar to make up for this loss in value. All basic economics.

I agree with you though :)

I'm in, the rate these items are rasing is ridicoulous.

Since when have we been on the deflation system? It is always inflation, unless you want to quote items that have gradually lost their usefulness over time.

Yuriqiu is right on the money...

We have never been on the deflation system, but before PVP became such an easy moneymaker, prices have been relativly stable with only small increases that even a lazy RS player could easily catch up to, as long as he had the levels for it...

What we see now is that PVP (and especially tricking) makes everything else obsolete... In a game as varied and diverse as RuneScape; singling out one thing that is clearly a 'better way' to go about your business than all the others, pretty much ruins the rest of the game...

Actually, this is inconsistent with Jagex's prior actions, as they most certainly -have- been executing a deflationary strategy.

• [*:2dhw3vsv]Construction is released, along with planks being needed to develop level. This draws money OUT of the game, deflating cash value.[*:2dhw3vsv]RW trading removed, GE instated, which limits profitability at the expense of GP values. Differentials in exchanges also return to market, lowering amount of cash in game.[*:2dhw3vsv]Summoning is released, and shards are instituted, further drawing out cash from the game.

This is the first action in some time that drives cash into the game, and I'd argue it actually destroys all the productive work of cash removal that previous installments had made.

Actually, this is inconsistent with Jagex's prior actions, as they most certainly -have- been executing a deflationary strategy.

• [*:11i12fwg]Construction is released, along with planks being needed to develop level. This draws money OUT of the game, deflating cash value.[*:11i12fwg]RW trading removed, GE instated, which limits profitability at the expense of GP values. Differentials in exchanges also return to market, lowering amount of cash in game.[*:11i12fwg]Summoning is released, and shards are instituted, further drawing out cash from the game.

 

 

 

This is the first action in some time that drives cash into the game, and I'd argue it actually destroys all the productive work of cash removal that previous installments had made.

Not only destroy all that work, but considering that all that cash removal (which is obviously neccisary over a prolonged period of time), has been nullified in a matter of weeks...

If indeed sailin comes out (bring on the flames), I hope its an even more costly skill then construction ever was... At least to start it, so some of the 26k-trick damage can be undone...

I have yet to see how this new minigame (Camping with your Armies) and its blatent attempt at junk removal will impact the inflation we're currently in... So far it has started to buy out some parts and some sources of junk, but far from all, and the hype seems to die down already (different scenario's to incite new hypes?)... None of the junk removal so far has had much impact on overall prices...

Coinshare bringing in excess amounts of gp. Thus, the actual currency (gp) is devalued, and the prices of items soar to make up for this loss in value. All basic economics.

 

WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Coinshare gives the CSers MIN price, while putting the item it got at MED price. UNLESS the item happened to be crashing (rare), IT TAKES MONEY OUT OF THE ECONOMY.

Not sure if this has been posted yet:

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Grand_Exchange_Market_Watch/Common_Trade_Index

 

 

 

As you can see, inflation has shot through the roof since mid June. There's nearly as much in two weeks as in the year and a half prior, total.

Now that is scary!

I wanted Armadyl Plateskirt but the price is rising faster than I can earn the money :wall:

Do you think merchant clans are buying up as much armour as they can afford? If so, wait for the crash :ohnoes:

Not sure if this has been posted yet:

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Grand_Exchange_Market_Watch/Common_Trade_Index

 

 

 

As you can see, inflation has shot through the roof since mid June. There's nearly as much in two weeks as in the year and a half prior, total.

You would need to show a couple years of history to make this meaningful -- how do we know this isn't the usual summer inflation?

What we see now is that PVP (and especially tricking) makes everything else obsolete... In a game as varied and diverse as RuneScape; singling out one thing that is clearly a 'better way' to go about your business than all the others, pretty much ruins the rest of the game...

Sorry for the double post, but I wanted to second this excellent, clearly stated point and add that what makes this form of moneymaking even worse is that it is not an intended form of play. If Jagex had added some great new moneymaker that was loads of fun, everyone could switch to it and things would be ok. (Of course, balance still would be better.) But now Jagex has created a Hobson's choice -- players must either engage in a boring, sucky form of gameplay or be at a competitive disadvantage in the game. Nobody tricks for its own sake -- they tolerate it for the reward. Setting up a system that pressures people to do something that isn't inherently fun is a sure way to kill the game.

Not sure if this has been posted yet:

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Grand_Exchange_Market_Watch/Common_Trade_Index

 

 

 

As you can see, inflation has shot through the roof since mid June. There's nearly as much in two weeks as in the year and a half prior, total.

 

 

 

You would need to show a couple years of history to make this meaningful -- how do we know this isn't the usual summer inflation?

Put this in your pipe and smoke it: Whip has been steady 1.5M for years and now 2.3M

It's meaningful alright. :shame:

This is very true and annoying now.

I hope anyone running a merchant clan, or dedicated to helping one, OR anyone 26king get shot.

Its ruining the game for alot of people

Thats the graph for prayer pots.

Is that due to inflation too then?

If it is its cheesing me off..

14K per prayer pot now..

on the positive side all of this is educating, so in future if you decide to play some in stock market

This is very true and annoying now.

 

I hope anyone running a merchant clan, or dedicated to helping one, OR anyone 26king get shot.

 

 

 

Its ruining the game for alot of people

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thats the graph for prayer pots.

 

Is that due to inflation too then?

 

If it is its cheesing me off..

 

14K per prayer pot now..

I don't get this...

Why would people with high amounts of gold buy prayer pots for nothing?

Either merch clans got em , or more pkers are dieng with them.

So the point of this thread is to tell us to invest in anything, cus most likely you'll make money off it ;)

But really, 14k per pray pot. Wtf.

But really, 14k per pray pot. Wtf.

Before the GE, I frequently sold four-dosers for 15k.

But really, 14k per pray pot. Wtf.

 

 

 

Before the GE, I frequently sold four-dosers for 15k.

But that wasn't what ALL pray pots were sold for.

 

You would need to show a couple years of history to make this meaningful -- how do we know this isn't the usual summer inflation?

This is true. I think that the place I got it from has the numbers going back to end 07 though - lemme check...

Well, can't find it.

And, shall I say, I'm NOT stating causation here. Just correlation. Yes, this might just be summer inflation - but I suspect it isn't. I've never seen prices like this, before or after the GE.

I was going to say I remembed it being 9k per 3 doses 3 years ago(average)...and I'm assuming those are 4 dose potions.

It will be interesting to see if these items will keep rising, or if they will eventually level off. Also, I 26k, and i've also bought over 500 prayer potions recently as I like to target kill and sometimes pk the way it was intended. I'm sure I'm not the only person like this, so this could attribute to the rise.

I feel that if Jagex doesn't do anything to nerf it, it will eventually level off. Also, if they do nerf it, I don't see prices plumeting for quite some time(the damage has been done)... Jagex obviously doesn't see it as big of issue as what a lot of people view it as.

Edit: to the above poster, the prices aren't unique, it's the fact that they went down because of the RWT bannings and now obviously going back up. To be quite honest, prices are at levels that they were during the peak of my RS career