3rd Age/Spirit shields/Phats Discussion

[ilovecuttingyews]

also there are rumors going around that chessy (mercher) is hoarding over 1k santas and that she could crash price at any time should i be concerned about this?

Chessy has over 1k santa hats that she has been stocking up for years. Even though technicly she could crash the market, it is VERY unlikely that she will. She uses these more or less as a way to hold here net worth in a non-GP form that is guarenteed to rise in the long run. Even IF she wanted to crash the market, she couldn't do it very well because it only takes 65 santa hats to hit max GP. She would have to invest all that GP into some sort of other item and that would take a long time.

[SlayerMalk]

also there are rumors going around that chessy (mercher) is hoarding over 1k santas and that she could crash price at any time should i be concerned about this?

Chessy has over 1k santa hats that she has been stocking up for years. Even though technicly she could crash the market, it is VERY unlikely that she will. She uses these more or less as a way to hold here net worth in a non-GP form that is guarenteed to rise in the long run. Even IF she wanted to crash the market, she couldn't do it very well because it only takes 65 santa hats to hit max GP. She would have to invest all that GP into some sort of other item and that would take a long time.

 

i have one santa currently in ge for med price and its not selling yet :/ one other person in world 1 was selling a santa hat so hopefully it sells some time soon

[meili]

Not a merchant but I'm keeping my Santas. If you don't need the gp, there's no need to sell, IMO. Rares make up 90%+ of my bank, FYI. :mrgreen: It's not actually *bad* to have most of your wealth in rares, you know.

[Low C]

Sell now and buy after Christmas. They will most likely crash soon.

[i_D_r]

I've been messing around with santas recently, and I feel somewhat as if I'm being played with; it's almost like they're being slowly churned into the game (for example, from chessy), although maybe not, there's no true way to tell. I believe this because 1) everytime santas get any momentum they *seem* to get counteracted by hoarders (or flippers, albeit, doubtful) and stay around 34m and 2) the flip potential is terrible and risky. A 30M+ item you can only buy 2 of and make 100-300k off of *maybe* isn't very tantalizing.

 

Whatever the case may be, I've stepped away from santas for good (for now). Who knows, maybe they'll be 40m in a week because of how hot masks are at the moment; as someone mentioned, santas and masks are pretty similar in following general market trends.

 

Speaking of masks, all masks are very hot at the moment- I made about 20m buying and selling within a few days and now called it quits and moved on to other stuff. I've always been conservative with my merching, I don't have time to sit around to trade off crashed items. Although if I had waited, I could of made more. However, masks don't update everyday so I thought I could use my capital elsewhere for greater profits within that time. It's all about preference and how often you log on to merch.

 

As for D bones, check out the herb or potion 180 day graphs. See the first couple troughs on the graph after the herblaw update? This isn't nessecarily an indication of what will happen to D bones; just keep it mind, those dips are from people with a large market hold that paniced/or were ready to reap their profits, they stuck them at min, and others followed until the natural market and smart merchers ate them back up.

[viralaether]

bought bones for 95 at med price, did they really crash again this fast or was i somehow lucky? (was on world 150 something if that effects ge)

[Star_Fox]

Sell now and buy after Christmas. They will most likely crash soon.

 

 

oh please...

[Low C]

Sell now and buy after Christmas. They will most likely crash soon.

 

 

oh please...

 

I bailed out of santa's about a week or so ago and they haven't really went anywhere. I don't see them going nuts at Christmas like everyone thinks they will.

[Bouwzie]

Sell now and buy after Christmas. They will most likely crash soon.

 

 

oh please...

 

I bailed out of santa's about a week or so ago and they haven't really went anywhere. I don't see them going nuts at Christmas like everyone thinks they will.

 

Everybody expects them to go up, so they go up before Christmas, crash during Christmas, and will stabalize after Christmas. Demand is too high before Christmas, Supply too high during Christmas, and it evens out a bit after Christmas.

[ilovecuttingyews]

Sell now and buy after Christmas. They will most likely crash soon.

oh please...

I bailed out of santa's about a week or so ago and they haven't really went anywhere. I don't see them going nuts at Christmas like everyone thinks they will.

Everybody expects them to go up, so they go up before Christmas, crash during Christmas, and will stabalize after Christmas. Demand is too high before Christmas, Supply too high during Christmas, and it evens out a bit after Christmas.

What I take out of Lowc15's post is that santas are at that 'threshhold price' where it is very unlikely that it will increase greatly. Santas are at a price where natural demand is starting to drop off alot. So when they start to rise people immediatly sell them because they own them for the sake of merchanting and don't want to be left out after the dump. So essentially they will stabalize just like they are doing now. The other side of this 'going nuts' is that that when the dump comes there is enough GP in the hands of noob merchants who will see a price fall and immediatly start buying. This buying will absorb the crash before it amounts to anything significant and the price will go back up to ~35M.

[Low C]

Sell now and buy after Christmas. They will most likely crash soon.

oh please...

I bailed out of santa's about a week or so ago and they haven't really went anywhere. I don't see them going nuts at Christmas like everyone thinks they will.

Everybody expects them to go up, so they go up before Christmas, crash during Christmas, and will stabalize after Christmas. Demand is too high before Christmas, Supply too high during Christmas, and it evens out a bit after Christmas.

What I take out of Lowc15's post is that santas are at that 'threshhold price' where it is very unlikely that it will increase greatly. Santas are at a price where natural demand is starting to drop off alot. So when they start to rise people immediatly sell them because they own them for the sake of merchanting and don't want to be left out after the dump. So essentially they will stabalize just like they are doing now. The other side of this 'going nuts' is that that when the dump comes there is enough GP in the hands of noob merchants who will see a price fall and immediatly start buying. This buying will absorb the crash before it amounts to anything significant and the price will go back up to ~35M.

 

Thats basically where I was trying to go with it without going that in depth lol. Thanks, took the words right out of my mouth. Like you explained, santa's don't have a great enough demand to make it past the 40m mark. I don't see them making it there unless inflation is never fixed and they eventually just climb along with everything.

[Bladewing]

Since people have been talking a lot about dragon bones, I thought I might comment that they're buyable at min.

[Unb34t4bl3]

A lot of players are expecting Santas to crash as part of the normal cycle. While I do believe this will happen, I could see them rebounding even after Christmas. Hyperinflation just may save them.

[Low C]

A lot of players are expecting Santas to crash as part of the normal cycle. While I do believe this will happen, I could see them rebounding even after Christmas. Hyperinflation just may save them.

 

Yeah I see them making a slow climb all year with their up's and down's they always do. But like you say with inflation the way it is they could make the climb at a more increased rate than in previous years.

[ilovecuttingyews]

So, how big do people this the crash will be? 2 days of 1.5M falls then 1 fall of 750k and then a rebound is my guess.

Also, looking at the RSOF yesterday, there seemed to be alot of people trading away eggs. I am not sure if this is impending doom or just people coincidently wanting to upgrade to phats all at once. Most offers I saw that were cash were around 175M so it looks to me like eggs are dying down a little bit.

[1230abcz]

I haven't logged onto my noob account after I bought 2 mask sets on it. Apparently I'm making a lot of money, lol.

[Danqazmlp]

I haven't logged onto my noob account after I bought 2 mask sets on it. Apparently I'm making a lot of money, lol.

 

 

That's the best way to make money with rares.

[i_D_r]

Not related to rares, but I have a question about swamp tar and gaum-harralander tar and hopefully someone can answer this.

 

Around August 6th, 2009, swamp tar took a giant fall in price.

 

It crashed from about 250 all the way down to about 90ish. Since the price of swamp tar is linked to herblore xp, the gaum-harralander tars all bombed as well, respectively. They've been slowly climbing since.

 

I searched the RS news databases, and I see no foreseeable update as to any new monsters, shops, methods, etc. to acquire it faster than before. There is one shop that sells a stock of ten. The personal shop update came out September 2nd, one month after the crash as well.

 

I've thinking maybe there are some bots out there that collect it and sell it on ge. I can't see any other reason for the sudden crash.

 

This is silly, but I'm curious.

[bedman]

Not related to rares, but I have a question about swamp tar and gaum-harralander tar and hopefully someone can answer this.

 

Around August 6th, 2009, swamp tar took a giant fall in price.

 

It crashed from about 250 all the way down to about 90ish. Since the price of swamp tar is linked to herblore xp, the gaum-harralander tars all bombed as well, respectively. They've been slowly climbing since.

 

I searched the RS news databases, and I see no foreseeable update as to any new monsters, shops, methods, etc. to acquire it faster than before. There is one shop that sells a stock of ten. The personal shop update came out September 2nd, one month after the crash as well.

 

I've thinking maybe there are some bots out there that collect it and sell it on ge. I can't see any other reason for the sudden crash.

 

This is silly, but I'm curious.

 

Can't really help on the issue, but I remember looking up its price and also thinking, wtf and buying like a heap of it. (resold later for little to no profit).

[sa121]

A certain website actually offers a swamp-tar collecting bot as a free sample to download and try out, so your bot idea may be right.

[Punitive_D]

So, how big do people this the crash will be? 2 days of 1.5M falls then 1 fall of 750k and then a rebound is my guess.

Also, looking at the RSOF yesterday, there seemed to be alot of people trading away eggs. I am not sure if this is impending doom or just people coincidently wanting to upgrade to phats all at once. Most offers I saw that were cash were around 175M so it looks to me like eggs are dying down a little bit.

 

Not that big. In fact, I sold my blue masks after the last price move, and I'm buying santas right now. They're cheaper than blue masks, which means "buy" to me.

[Punitive_D]

Santas moved up a little. Red masks appear to be bought out. Ironically, that's not really good from an investment perspective -- the price moves more slowly when an item is bought out. So I'm liquidating my reds and buying more santas and greens.

[Trey]

Any news on Easters?

 

they seem to be doing well, will they continue to rise?

[ilovecuttingyews]

Any news on Easters?

they seem to be doing well, will they continue to rise?

Do you mean on the GE or the street price? The current street price seems to range from 175-200M. The GE price is somewhere around 45M I think. Yes, the GE price will continue rising until either the GE price catches up with the street price and it stabalizes, or until the inevitable dump when the street price will plummet but the GE price will likely stay the same, or maybe fall, depending on how complete the dump is. If you meant by street price; the street price of easter eggs has been stable near 200M for a month or two already. It took a small dive recently (I saw some sold for 150M) but they seem to be back up to approaching 200M.

It hurts me talking about eggs...I had 2 and an offer in for 10 more when they were stable at 16M but I opted to sell them and flip yews instead because I thought I would make more money. Yea...that ended up well.

[meili]

Any news on Easters?

they seem to be doing well, will they continue to rise?

Do you mean on the GE or the street price? The current street price seems to range from 175-200M. The GE price is somewhere around 45M I think. Yes, the GE price will continue rising until either the GE price catches up with the street price and it stabalizes, or until the inevitable dump when the street price will plummet but the GE price will likely stay the same, or maybe fall, depending on how complete the dump is. If you meant by street price; the street price of easter eggs has been stable near 200M for a month or two already. It took a small dive recently (I saw some sold for 150M) but they seem to be back up to approaching 200M.

It hurts me talking about eggs...I had 2 and an offer in for 10 more when they were stable at 16M but I opted to sell them and flip yews instead because I thought I would make more money. Yea...that ended up well.

 

200M isn't even that high. The price of easters was once really, really low, like 1/3 the price of santas. I refused to sell my stash then (though I gave away half for free) because that was ridiculous. I'm pretty sure easters are rarer than phats and obviously rarer then santas.

 

Pumpkins just might be rarer than crackers, practically no one I know even kept any or has any right now. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: