The Math of Rare Drops

[Harrington]

 

And the unluckiest 5:

 

 

 

10,438

 

10,730

 

10,798

 

11,553

 

12,647 <------- I'm that guy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yup, 12,647.... seems about right, seriously. Think I drew the short straw during account creation.

[Bauke]

Idk if these numbers are correct. You know the P-value, which is 1/2000... But what about the standard deviation? How is the spreading over the data? Normal? Poisson? Binomial? I think the data you produces is wrong. This is by far no correct statistical analysis.

[atestarossa]

no, im just saying that the monster on that spot has to be killed 3000, or 2700(qith ROW) untill you get the drop. and when 1 of them is killed, it goes down 1 more untill it is dropped, then reset.

 

 

 

2700

 

2699

 

2698

 

etc.

 

and wiht ROW the total would be taken down by 10%.

 

 

 

again, its just a theory :P

 

 

 

and lets just leave it at that, im not saying you should stop posting on it, but other people need to post their theories/answers :P

 

 

 

 

 

just to say against this theory... if this was per person, then it would be easy to say against it... ever went to a place, and got a good drop on the first or second kill, like a clue, or a black mask... then it will say that the number was a long way from being "done"

 

 

 

if it's that monster or so, that every kill, also those others do, that counts... then it would be impossible to get a drop right after a system update... something we saw was possible now, when a tif'er got the dark bow at once...

 

 

 

so the point with something random, no matter what it is, is that you don't get better odds in winning in something when you loose... take roulette... if you have a 1/60 chance of getting the right number (don't know how many it is) then it doesn't give you a bigger chance each time you fail, because the odds "resets" so for every loss you make, then you still have the same 1/60 chance of winning

 

 

 

Unless they set the dark beasts to drop one after 10 kills after the update for the first few bows.

 

 

 

Imagine it's like working through a list, they could've started the update near the bottom of the list, not saying I believe this just saying that dark bow drops don't disprove this theory.

'

 

 

 

 

 

just so it's said... a system update resets the game... thats why stores and such get back to it's original stock after those updates

[no_way2go]

I'm not activly collecting items but it just happened during my time playing, that's why I don't got that many :P None of the following items are donated or bought from other players.

 

 

 

 

 

Th3_C4bb4g3 ------------------- 24562 air runes

 

Th3_C4bb4g3 ------------------- 1337 gold amulets

 

Th3_C4bb4g3 ------------------- 36 tinderboxes

 

Th3_C4bb4g3 ------------------- 28 hammers

 

 

 

Non-tradeable

 

Th3_C4bb4g3 ------------------- 8 prince pants

 

 

 

Older pic:

 

[JimmyMcNabb]

 

Oh and why cant americans put an S after math, its maths! mathS!

 

 

 

Mathematics is a singular word, therefore its correct abbreviation in MATH. I know Maths is used in other countries, but here in the states it is Math. All words that end with 's' aren't plural, and this is one case.

 

 

 

sorry? mathematicS take out the ematic and you get mathS

[nicrune007]

Ok, so I've killed 148 black dragons now (counting the hides :)), and prety fast too (with cannon and addy bolts, with a total of +180 range att bonus)...

 

 

 

You're saying that i'm still more then 10k kills away from the drop? Ok I can accept that too...

 

 

 

But the best drop I had was an adamant platebody. I also had a few mithril 2hs and baxes, but mostly it was junk like adamant throwing darts, or javelins, or sapphires, or coins, or the worst of them all: just the dhide and d bones...

 

 

 

Yes I wear ring of wealth...

 

 

 

So, anyone got an explanation..?

 

 

 

Explaination

 

Black dragon got really bad loot.. really

[brainymidget]

Heres how I think of it. Its not when 3000 of the same dragon is killed then that 3000th drop will be a visage. I think that once 3000 dragons in one world are killed then the 3000th out of all of them in the world are killed that one will drop a visage. So, if people all around had killed 2999 and then you walked in and got the 3000th you would have it on your first try, but then if you and a couple other people had gotten to a total of 2999 dragons killed and then someone else came in, they would get a visage and then the kills would be started over. Thats just how I think of it, although not really cause I just made everything up as i went along.

[Mischlings]

 

Oh and why cant americans put an S after math, its maths! mathS!

 

 

 

Mathematics is a singular word, therefore its correct abbreviation in MATH. I know Maths is used in other countries, but here in the states it is Math. All words that end with 's' aren't plural, and this is one case.

 

 

 

sorry? mathematicS take out the ematic and you get mathS

 

 

 

But why take out "ematic" and keep the "s"? Why not chop the entire word off at math? (I use math more often, but occasionally the British side of me uses maths).

 

 

 

On the topic, in anything probability related, there's going to be a huge deviation. There could be different ways that the drops are figured out, but I'm going by the god letters saying that it's like a roulette wheel. It doesn't surprise me at all that more than one person got it on the first kill in this test. It's all probability, one of the things I'm glad I've learned in my algebra classes.

[JimmyMcNabb]

 

Oh and why cant americans put an S after math, its maths! mathS!

 

 

 

Mathematics is a singular word, therefore its correct abbreviation in MATH. I know Maths is used in other countries, but here in the states it is Math. All words that end with 's' aren't plural, and this is one case.

 

 

 

sorry? mathematicS take out the ematic and you get mathS

 

 

 

But why take out "ematic" and keep the "s"? Why not chop the entire word off at math? (I use math more often, but occasionally the British side of me uses maths).

 

 

 

 

 

 

because maths, or mathematics, is plural! You cannot have a singular math. Its an oddity in the english language but it is a plural

[128backwards]

Im seeing all these strange theories i just think its random with a set porababilty for each individual item it drops. Then again I could be wrong, but im pretty sure its random.

 

 

 

as for the people posting above me, math and mathematics are the same word and it has the same meaning math is just an abbreviation for mathematics thats why theres no "s" at the end because its just an abbreviation.

[Blingkachi50]

So what you're saying is......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...it's luck.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh and why cant americans put an S after math, its maths! mathS!

 

 

 

Because maths doesn't sound good, it just sounds weird IMO. And rly why does it matter lol.

[n64jive]

I remember a mod posting that drops are like 2 roulette wheels. The chance of you getting a rare drop is one number on the first roulette wheel. If you get that number, then it proceeds into the second roulette wheel which is full of rare drops by the monster, some more valuable, some less valuable. The chance of you getting a rarer rare is less likely(of course) What the ring of wealth does is make it more likely for you to get the rare on the first wheel.

 

 

 

just what i've heard.

[xSxqPowerx]

Interesting, thanks for once again giving some very nice information.

 

 

 

Anyway to figure out the chance of 1 person ALWAYS being in those unlucky few people every time they go for a drop?

[dandude5007]

well its good to see there is math in something as talked about as rare drops. i mean, yes some people are 'lucky' and some ane 'unlucky', and otehrs are 'cheatingly lucky'(i mean the ring of wealth :P)

 

 

 

it does seem that some of the people were the luckiest, and others had just plain bad luck.

 

 

 

but i say there is no luck in a MMORPG, or any video game for that matter.

 

you cant influence anything in the game for happening, because no one can control the drops... well aside from the Admins :P

 

 

 

but in spite of that, i say that the drops are counted. no not as you did for counting the kills till the drop, but something... different :uhh:

 

 

 

such as: every spawn in the game, that has a rare drop, has a certian amount of kills till that monster that spawns in that spot drops the rare. and maby its higher for better drops, as the D chain and such, and less as... ohh... lets say something that everyone gets but nobody wants... humh... what could something like that be... huh i wonder... ok let me guess here and say...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

seeds

 

 

 

 

 

yes i coule be wrong all together, people could have luck, one way or the other, in a game. some people could sort of wish it that they get the drop, or any other way people have bad/good luck...

 

 

 

Actually I see it quite differently.

 

everytime u kill a monster (lets say iron dragons) you get to take a pick from a metaphorical bag. Inside this bag are 1000 coins, 100 rune limbs 100 attk pots, 5 d legs 5 d skirts and 1 draconic visage

 

As you can see its much more likely to pull out a coins then a visage! hence it is rarer. i doubt theres a counter per monster killed that wud make it too predictable,

[Ginger_Warrior]

OK, to all those that don't understand, I'll explain. Basically, one way it could work is by randomly generating a number between 1 and 0, and stating a maximum amount of kills for that drop to appear. The two numbers are then multiplied, producing the number of kills needed. At least, that's one method, and I doubt this is the method Jagex use.

 

 

 

I would suspect the system in RS is much like the breeding system on Pok̮̩̉̉mon. In Pok̮̩̉̉mon, leaving two compatible Pok̮̩̉̉mon in the Daycare Centre makes them produce eggs, but the rate at which is random. Basically, a number is produced every 256 (I think) steps they're in the Centre. This number is between 1-250 (or around). When the Pok̮̩̉̉mon were placed in the Centre, a number is generated. If the number generated through walking is lower than the number generated by placing the Pok̮̩̉̉mon in the Centre, then an egg is produced. If the number is higher, the counter resets to zero, and no egg is produced, and the process begins anew. If you still don't understand, read this guide, and read where it says '4. THE BASICS'. This is an example of the system on Pok̮̩̉̉mon, but I'd suspect the system follows the same kind of method as RS's system.

 

 

 

This is a much more efficient way because it allows the game to control the chances. Think of the number generated at the Pok̮̩̉̉mon Centre as a kind of bar. By lowering that bar, you reduce the chances of a random number being produced lower than that bar. This is how random chances are controlled in games these days. To relate that into RS, Jagex set this 'bar' (if the chances are 1:2000, then the bar would be set to 0-1 on a scale of 3999). Everytime a monster is killed (or respawned, either way still holds true), a random number is generated. If the number is lower than the 'bar' (ie, 0 or 1), then that drop is produced.

 

 

 

What the author is basically trying to say is that, just because there is a 1:2000 chance of a visage, this doesn't mean you're gaurenteed one every 2,000 drops, it's just that maths would suggest it would. However, in reality, this isn't the case.

[eias]

the unlucky part applies to me..

 

i did 30 barrow trips none with descent drops no barrow drops

 

while others got guthan warspear from the first trip.

[aj926]

the unlucky part applies to me..

 

i did 30 barrow trips none with descent drops no barrow drops

 

while others got guthan warspear from the first trip.

 

Next person to say anything like this gets hit with a giant stick that says "AJ926 has a 200+ dry streak"

[Kiriyama]

the unlucky part applies to me..

 

i did 30 barrow trips none with descent drops no barrow drops

 

while others got guthan warspear from the first trip.

 

Next person to say anything like this gets hit with a giant stick that says "AJ926 has a 200+ dry streak"

 

 

 

I've had a 29 dry streak unlucky me.

 

 

 

(I usually have 30-35 dry streaks)

 

 

 

Anyway you can't factor maths into drop rates its just like a huge dice, a bag or a roulette wheel.

[aj926]

the unlucky part applies to me..

 

i did 30 barrow trips none with descent drops no barrow drops

 

while others got guthan warspear from the first trip.

 

Next person to say anything like this gets hit with a giant stick that says "AJ926 has a 200+ dry streak"

 

 

 

I've had a 29 dry streak unlucky me.

 

 

 

(I usually have 30-35 dry streaks)

 

 

 

 

[rareghoul1]

the unlucky part applies to me..

 

i did 30 barrow trips none with descent drops no barrow drops

 

while others got guthan warspear from the first trip.

 

Next person to say anything like this gets hit with a giant stick that says "AJ926 has a 200+ dry streak"

 

 

 

I've had a 29 dry streak unlucky me.

 

 

 

(I usually have 30-35 dry streaks)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:shock:

[stan18]

you should mention the average number of rolls for your 1000 person sample size ;)

[blacksimon]

Aj. Do you pray?

 

 

 

Drops are 1:18 item to chest usually.

 

 

 

Im on a 60+ run dry streak now. (please dont hit me with the bat)

 

I stopped using pray pots, i camp, unnoting at shop, and do not pray on ANY brothers. Ever since I started this i havent gotten anything but runes.

[Kill_Thomas9]

these are real results right? if they're fake there's no point to it.

 

 

 

You're missing the point. It is a simulation. And it's not pointless.

[DarkDude]

OK, to all those that don't understand, I'll explain. Basically, one way it could work is by randomly generating a number between 1 and 0, and stating a maximum amount of kills for that drop to appear. The two numbers are then multiplied, producing the number of kills needed. At least, that's one method, and I doubt this is the method Jagex use.

 

 

 

I would suspect the system in RS is much like the breeding system on Pok̮̩̉̉mon. In Pok̮̩̉̉mon, leaving two compatible Pok̮̩̉̉mon in the Daycare Centre makes them produce eggs, but the rate at which is random. Basically, a number is produced every 256 (I think) steps they're in the Centre. This number is between 1-250 (or around). When the Pok̮̩̉̉mon were placed in the Centre, a number is generated. If the number generated through walking is lower than the number generated by placing the Pok̮̩̉̉mon in the Centre, then an egg is produced. If the number is higher, the counter resets to zero, and no egg is produced, and the process begins anew. If you still don't understand, read this guide, and read where it says '4. THE BASICS'. This is an example of the system on Pok̮̩̉̉mon, but I'd suspect the system follows the same kind of method as RS's system.

 

 

 

This is a much more efficient way because it allows the game to control the chances. Think of the number generated at the Pok̮̩̉̉mon Centre as a kind of bar. By lowering that bar, you reduce the chances of a random number being produced lower than that bar. This is how random chances are controlled in games these days. To relate that into RS, Jagex set this 'bar' (if the chances are 1:2000, then the bar would be set to 0-1 on a scale of 3999). Everytime a monster is killed (or respawned, either way still holds true), a random number is generated. If the number is lower than the 'bar' (ie, 0 or 1), then that drop is produced.

 

 

 

What the author is basically trying to say is that, just because there is a 1:2000 chance of a visage, this doesn't mean you're gaurenteed one every 2,000 drops, it's just that maths would suggest it would. However, in reality, this isn't the case.

 

 

 

I doubt the drop system works like that though. Each time a monster dies, a random number between 0-1 (or 0-1000 to make calculations easier). Say the drop rate of an item is 1%, this would mean that there's a gap of ten numbers where you would get this drop. So from 0-1000 it could be 10-20 or 475-485 or whatever it is depending on the amount of drops possible. The Bar system I think you're explaining is used for catching Pok̮̩̉̉mon in pok̮̩̉̉mon as you either catch them or you don't.

 

 

 

Actualy, I suppose it's almost the same, but I think of it more of a range of possible values for the drop rather than a "bar" it has to be lower than. Although I'd probably program it as if it was a bar, starting from the bottom. eg.

 

"If dropnumber < 0.1 then drop.item(Coins)

Exit sub

elseif dropnumber <0.15 then drop.item(Steel Axe)

exit sub

 

 

 

Etc.

[aj926]

Aj. Do you pray?

 

 

 

Drops are 1:18 item to chest usually.

 

 

 

Im on a 60+ run dry streak now. (please dont hit me with the bat)

 

I stopped using pray pots, i camp, unnoting at shop, and do not pray on ANY brothers. Ever since I started this i havent gotten anything but runes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Barely. I end up ancienting for fun (and to numb the fact that I'm on a 200+ dry streak), and I dds karil + msb/knife ahrim.