Grand Exchange: Your thoughts?

[meili]

:^o I am staying cool because I sold almost everything of value except some rares. Lower prices will actually help me a lot because I will probably be more of a buyer than a seller for a long time. ;)

 

 

 

It should basically even out most of the time, I mean if ores drop in price, miners are out of it but then smithers gain, unless smited items also drop in price (I think they will). However prices won't drop *that* low. Like, one time when shark fell to ...ok I forgot what price...but so low that fishers simply stopped fishing shark because it wasn't worth it. Then because of the scarcity of supply, the price rose enough that people started fishing it again. :) I know because I am 90 fishing. :D That's how it works.

 

 

 

I also have my fingers crossed that Exchange House will let Jagex track down rl traders better so that even if prices drop, it will only be because of legit players and not farmers flooding the market.

[transcript80]

What keeps me astonished is how people are "predicting" what "will happen" in these kinds of threads, while NOBODY knows what the GE will be like exactly.

 

 

 

These threads are usually a waste of time and effort. I have lots of time to spare, so I read most of them anyway :-w .

 

 

 

GE is like summoning....everybody has an opinion of it, but the whole thing doesn't even EXIST yet!

[Doomster]

If it is an "all of runescape" market, then you would need VERY deep pockets to control it, though some degree of price manipulation might be achieved.

 

 

 

Whatever price a "cartel" tries to set, smaller traders would be likely to undercut, getting the trade unless the cartel constantly buys them out.

[mario_sunny]

Good scenarios(although I think some were just a wee bit off :P ). I'm glad to see more players are contributing to possible scenarios that will be causes of the GE, tip.iters can use these to their advantage and make some nice profit. :)

 

 

 

I have yet to see a really good, though-out rares GE thread though. I might make one this afternoon, I think I have some pretty good ideas. :)

[ego_scorpion]

Recently, there have been lot of topics about "How the GE will destroy the Economy!", "The GE will eliminate Merchanting!" and others. I see these topics as a total farce. The GE will NOT destroy the Economy or Merchanting. It will simply change the way Merchanting is done. Here are a few scenarios-

 

 

 

Player A, B and C are your regular players. Player D is a merchant. Player E is a Mage. Player F is a Pker.

 

 

 

Scenario 1-Player A,B and C sell 350 Nats for 300 ea

 

Player D also has 350 Nats. He sees these Nats for sale and snaps them up for 315k. Player D now has 1400 Nats.

 

Player D puts up his 1400 Nats for 434k, which is 310 each.

 

Player F puts up 100 Nats he got from Pking for 300 ea.

 

Player E has is looking to train his magic. He sees the 1.4k Nats for 434k, and 100 Nats for 30k. Which Nats will he buy? The 1.4k Nats of course. He needs a lot of Nats, and the small price increase is enough to pay for the convenience of obtaining all these Nats. There. Player E has made 119k.

 

 

 

What we learned from this scenario-Merchanting remains the same, buying lots of small amounts and making a large amount will make you money. 10gp or so extra per rune etc. is an amount people are willing to pay for the convenience of getting a lot of the items they need.

 

RESULT-Merchanting has not changed!

 

 

 

 

 

Player A is a Monster Slayer, with an especial like of fighting Steel Dragons. Player B is searching for Dragon Legs. Player C is a merchant.

 

 

Scenario 2

 

Player A has been slaying Steel Dragons all day and is starting to think he will never get a profitable drop. But suddenly, he finds the fabled Dragon Platelegs on the ground! Not knowing the exact price, and wanting to get back to Dragon Slaying, posts on the GE for 1.3 mill. Player C sees these, buys them, then puts them up on the GE for 1.6 mill. Player B, who has been looking all day, sees Dragon Platelegs for 1 mill more, but being desperate for a pair buys them anyway. There. Player C just made a quick and easy 300k.

 

 

 

Whate we learned from this scenario-The oldest merchant principle,. buy low and sel high, still works. People who are in desperate need of things will pay higher prcies, which is how Merchants make a lot of money today.

 

RESULTS-Merchanting has not changed!

 

 

 

Player A, B, C and D are Woodcutters on there way to 99 WC. Player E is a Merchant. Player F is a Flether who wishes to fletch to 99 and make some money.

 

 

 

Scenario 3

 

 

 

Player A, B, C and D have all cut 50k Yew logs. Player A sells his for 340 gp(1.7mill), Player B sells his for 350gp(1.75mill), Player C sells his for 360gp(1.8mill) and Plaeyr D sells his for 370gp(1.85mill). Player E sees these logs and buys all 200k for 7.1 mill. He now has 200k Yew logs, which he puts on the GE for 380 ea, 7.5mill. Player E sees all these logs, and knows he could make a lot of money, so buys them. Player F just made 400k.

 

 

 

What we learned from this scenario-Another old merchanting trick is that stuff with high supply has low demand, and low supply leads high demand. As there was a low supply of Yew logs of Yew logs on the GE, because Player E bought so many, there was a high demand, which was from Player F.

 

RESULTS-Merhcanting has not changed!

 

 

 

Those are only a few scenarios, why not share some of yours? What are your thoughts on what Merchanting will be like after the GE? Discuss and post your own scenarios here!

 

 

 

These examples work on small scale, when buying and selling in bank.

 

 

 

In ge, with everyone from every server buying and selling there will be way too many aunctions up for people to consider buying at bulk for higher. I rather buy 10 auctions at 300ea than 1 aunction that has 10 times as much at 320 each, if that makes sense to you.

 

 

 

As for buying and reselling dragon legs, you are assuming that the person who originaly sells them is sutpid and wont bother to check how much others are selling them for.

 

 

 

I strongly feel that people will undercut each other, so buying out to resell for more I belive will be rather dangerous. You basically make examples of the most common merchanting practices and assume that they will work with GE.

[Goldenjkered]

Just to say, 50k yew logs at 340 ea, is 17 mil not 1.7 mil.

[cookiestealer222]

For those who criticize these postings don't realize that we actually know a lot about this update. Just look at the market place search where you can find many sellers and buyers at their prices. This update will most likely be the same thing as these online markets, but faster.

 

 

 

The big advantage for sellers and buyers on the forums is the fact that even though there are many items listed, very few are online watching their post. This poses many problems and encourages fast deals.

 

 

 

long story short= bad for bulk sellers who want more per itme

 

=best update in the history of runescape for buyers

[ego_scorpion]

 

long story short= bad for bulk sellers who want more per itme

 

=best update in the history of runescape for buyers

 

 

 

 

That depends onw hat you are buying. I am a skiller, and I dread this update, becasue I am currently able to buy supplys at very very low prices. Much lower than I ever will be able to get in exchange. So its not the best update ever for all buyers, just average buyers who go by well established prices without trying to get a bargain.

 

 

 

And yes, as I stated before the bulk merchants will be hit hard.

[lord_british]

Given Jagex's history with rushing their updates into play, I think I'll wait at least 2 weeks before even attempting to use it. #-o

 

 

 

It'll likely be full of bugs and errors that the unscrupulous will try to exploit for personal gain. :shame:

 

 

 

If Jagex have an ounce of sense, they will implement a "search" feature to help people (buyers) find what they want in a reasonable amount of time. And/or they'll have "tabs"/sections for the different types of items (armours; weapons; foods; lumber; etc, etc, etc.) \

 

 

 

All-in-all, I can say I'm looking forward to seeing what they do with it, yet not with the breathless anticipation of some people here and in RSOF. I guess Jagex have made too many FUBAR's in the past to expect anything decent the first-time around on a new update.

 

 

 

Have they been taking lessons from Microsoft? :-w

[kieranread]

Recently, there have been lot of topics about "How the GE will destroy the Economy!", "The GE will eliminate Merchanting!" and others. I see these topics as a total farce. The GE will NOT destroy the Economy or Merchanting. It will simply change the way Merchanting is done. Here are a few scenarios-

 

 

 

 

 

 

A lot of topics you say... hmm pity you couldn't post on one of them, i mean theres plenty of them.

 

 

 

I didn't even bother reading it

 

 

 

1) Because ive seen enough of these threads

 

2) Because its all a load of rubish no matter what you wrote, the reason this is the case is because IT HASN'T BEEN RELEASED.

 

 

 

How the hell do you know whats gonna happen, with merchanting until its released. Save your threads UNTILL it is OUT, then post away and i will take time reading it until then can everyone else stop posting these stupid things its getting on my nerves.

[BBC3]

lol i thought you would of came up with a better theory than this.

 

 

 

you didnt change anything, merchanting is ruined the only way you will be able to merchant is by edgeville or falador if someone happens to not want to teleport to varrock to buy something.

 

 

 

nats are going to drop in price to perhaps 250 each even.

 

 

 

there is going to be more and more sellers than buyers and each one of those sellers will want to sell a bit less than the other person.

 

 

 

that person who got the dragon legs all he has to do is search up dragon legs, and your right maybe he does undersell it, but that person who buys it wont be a merchanter, if it is a merchanter and he puts it up for 1.6mil no one will buy it either because there will be a thousand other people selling it for under that since prices of everything has dropped.

[aglips]

Recently, there have been lot of topics about "How the GE will destroy the Economy!", "The GE will eliminate Merchanting!" and others. I see these topics as a total farce. The GE will NOT destroy the Economy or Merchanting. It will simply change the way Merchanting is done. Here are a few scenarios-

 

 

 

 

 

 

A lot of topics you say... hmm pity you couldn't post on one of them, i mean theres plenty of them.

 

 

 

I didn't even bother reading it

 

 

 

1) Because ive seen enough of these threads

 

2) Because its all a load of rubish no matter what you wrote, the reason this is the case is because IT HASN'T BEEN RELEASED.

 

 

 

How the hell do you know whats gonna happen, with merchanting until its released. Save your threads UNTILL it is OUT, then post away and i will take time reading it until then can everyone else stop posting these stupid things its getting on my nerves.

 

 

 

=D> =D> =D>

 

 

 

I totally agree with you. Until GE is released, no ones exactly how it will work. Unless it's one of the Gower brothers posting under an alias. :lol:

 

 

 

It's really amazing how people like to speculate and act like they know everything when they don't know for sure. :roll:

[ego_scorpion]

Actualy, I belive its grower, not gower, but not 100% sure lol.

 

 

 

And tell that to people posting threads calling them great exchange preview, like jagex staff told them how itw ill work.

 

 

 

Delibarately creating confusion and misleading people is much wrost than his specualation, however incoorect it may be, unless he isnt calling it a preview.

[lord_british]

Actualy, I belive its grower, not gower, but not 100% sure lol.

 

 

 

Definitely "Gower"

[aglips]

Actualy, I belive its grower, not gower, but not 100% sure lol.

 

 

 

It is Gower, by the way.

[qeltar]

It's human nature to speculate about the future. Consider that people start talking about who's going to win the Super Bowl during the preseason, or who might win an election over a year before we even know for sure who will be running.

 

 

 

While nobody knows the specifics and therefore cannot be sure about anything, it is certainly possible to make educated guesses about what may happen and what the reaction might be.

 

 

 

There's nothing wrong with it. In fact, Jagex encourages it with the BTS articles. And this is likely to be one of the biggest changes to the game in a long time.

 

 

 

For those who are interested and haven't seen it yet, you might want to check out my Grand Exchange Preview; a Tip.It thread about it is here.

 

 

 

~q

[ego_scorpion]

Actualy, I belive its grower, not gower, but not 100% sure lol.

 

 

 

Definitely "Gower"

 

 

 

Alright, I always thought grower - maybe because that sounds better in my head :) lol

[Dazzuh]

Agree with most of what you said, I personally am just going to wait til it comes out though :D Cant be bothered with pondering on what it's going to be like, i'll just see in two weeks.

[TheAncient]

Potions are just about due for a drop in price. Many herblore makers are sitting on supplies that they don't use but can't be bothered to sell as it is too much effort. The same goes for other skills, especially crafting and smithing.

 

 

 

I agree that potions might fall due to the GE, but I see it due to another reason.

 

 

 

Currently, herblore is a difficult skill because it is hard to accumulate herbs, or expensive to buy accumulated herbs from a merchant. GE gets rid of this, making buying mass herbs much easier. In other words, herblore is now a much more "buyable" skill.

 

 

 

The problem, however, is that now you have herblorists who have processed thousands of herbs, and as a result have many useless or unusable potions. Most likely, this mass of unusable potions would be sold in the GE - more supply. And more supply means a rightward shift in supply curve means lower prices.

 

 

 

In sum, GE will likely cause more herb buyers and thus higher herb price, while increasing potion sellers and thus lower potion price.

[BBC3]

very good analysis =D>

 

we have the same views

[ho3f3l]

Actualy, I belive its grower, not gower, but not 100% sure lol.

 

 

 

And tell that to people posting threads calling them great exchange preview, like jagex staff told them how itw ill work.

 

 

 

Delibarately creating confusion and misleading people is much wrost than his specualation, however incoorect it may be, unless he isnt calling it a preview.

 

 

 

hope you were joking when you wrote that,

 

 

 

becouse you were the one that made a post saying what will hapen at first even if you dont have the preview on the name, by your title your saying that you "know" what will hapen, probably "what MAY happen at first" would had been a better name no?

 

 

 

and since you dont know what really is going to happen, unless you are some jagex staff, you cant predict what really is going to happen.

[anonymouse_]

The update hasn't been released yet, so there's no point in speculating since it will probably be something none of us expect. And who cares about merchants? All they do these days is whine, spam, and complain. We can live without them.

[Aquashock]

With the release of the grand exchange in the near future, I can only foresee ways to abuse it. If the GE is going to work the way people have thought, as in a player puts up an item, then another player finds it and buys it.

 

 

 

What is to stop a rich player from making a new account, putting up a say 'raw chicken' for an outrageous amount of gold, and the other account buying it, thus transferring the gold and breaking whatever rule number it is.

 

 

 

Discuss, do you think this will be a major problem, or can jagex find ways to build around this if it indeed shows itself as a flaw.

[123Yourgone]

Sounds wicked, ill be sure to abuse this.

[Latinoking]

Another thread on GE?