Jagex' new rares? - 3A vs discontinued - PRICE UPDATE 7/2

[Ts_Stormrage]

Hevendor_Guy:

 

 

 

Some of the previous posters have already disproven your point to a certain extent, however due to your plain badgering, I'll take a swing at your shakey arguments as well...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You say that there is a difference between rare and discontinued, in RuneScape, people call the discontinued items a rare, and you know this. I may be dutch, but my understanding of english is far better then the average american, englishmen, or australian... So please forgive me if i stay with the terms that the people of RuneScape are familiar with.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You say about phats:

 

 

 

"No supply + High demand = Extremely High prices"

 

 

 

You are right, but with extremely high prices, also comes the impossibility to buy one. At a certain point these prices will reach a point where they can no longer be attained by members who are starting out within any reasonable ammount of time. At this point your "demand" stays constant, since phats are often not sold for cash, but for other rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Then about 3rd age items you say:

 

 

 

"Low supply + High demand = High prices"

 

 

 

I think that with the current drop rates of clues, and the drop rates of any of the aforementioned items per clue (0,01%), the supply doesnt get much higher then "low". The populace of runescape increases however, and since a 3rd age kiteshield is far more useful, and currently much more of a status symbol, its demand may be well higher then you expect.

 

 

 

That and the hype of everyone rushing to hellhounds to camp out there for days to get a clue dying out;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am willing to wager that the prices of these 3rd age items will not have settled in 1 year from now, they will still be increasing provided that no drop rates, stats, or anything like that have been changed by then, nor better indestructable armor released.

 

 

 

Ofcourse when jagex releases even MORE possible rewards from lvl 3 clues, the 3rd age stuff only gets rarer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

frogmite:

 

 

 

Thank you for seeing what I have been trying to piont out. I have not been around during the early days of the items you mentioned, so I'll have to take your word for it. However I do disagree with you to some extend when you say that 3rd age items will eventually level out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think there will be an ever increasing price on these items for all the reasons I mentioned earler.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

r2-pleasent:

 

 

 

You seem to agree with me that, although not as steady as Duke Freedom once showed with his graphs, and not as much as the "rares", these 3rd age items will have an ever-increasing pricetag still.

 

 

 

However you are right about my topic title, I will edit it to reflect that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duke_Freedom:

 

 

 

I knew you couldnt resist to post here. As usual you are right, but I disagree with yuo on 1 thing. I don't think that the ammount of players that is doing clues has halved. I think its much worse then that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I used to be unable to find any good Hell Hound spots that I even considered tackling them in the Wild with just 2 items (3rd being the clue dropped). Now even at the Family Crest dungeon I can camp out for hours without seeing anyone. This is blamed on several factors ofcourse: holidays are over, hype of clues dies down, and perhaps even sheer discouragement from not getting anything good.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let's do your same calculation but then with more people in the first month:

 

 

 

X items a day, but 5*X during the holidays equals to 150*X items with getting X every day. This translates into an increase of 3rd age items per day of 0,667%, less then half of your 1.4%. So I end up at 20% increase a month instead of 42%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that this still does not approach the 5% you say that the subscribers base of RuneScape increases a month, but it puts things more into perspective, and allows for a much greater time period in which the price of the 3rd age item will "settle", if at all.

[Leesters]

First and foremost, your title is trying to compare Third Age items, which have increasing supply, to Discontinued Items, which have decreasing supply. An item which can still be obtained is never going to follow the same price patterns as an item which can no longer be found in the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, to say this new Third Age armor is going to follow the typical pattern for newly introduced items is foolish. Not only is the rate for these items showing up in a clue quoted as being 1/10,000, or 0.01%, but to complete a level 3 clue requires a player to also find the Clue, and complete the tasks required, which is what makes these items different from Dragon Chains, or Barrows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One item that I find to be quite comparable is a Robin Hood Hat. RHH's are very similar to 3rd age armor, because they are Rare level 3 clue drops, and because they have game utility (very good stats). The utility creates demand from nearly all of Runescape; anybody who trains Combat is a potential buyer. Since there is such a minimal amount of new Third Age equipment being introduced into the game, and the demand for such items is so high, it is quite unlikely that there will be any price drop in the near-future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would estimate the prices on these items will remain quite constant, perhaps even slowly increasing, until some alternative equipment is implemented into the game. But for now, the extreme rarity of these items, and the fact that they are the best indestructible items in the game will keep their equilibrium price very high.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is dead on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Although its not a discontinued item (meaning the price pattern isn't comparable) its still gonna be super hard to get into the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like the ranger boots, (robin hoods were affected by the release of similiar dragonhide coifs) prices on third age items SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE. It just won't be as fast as the discontinued items, or won't experience the same price cycles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think this is a great update for a great challenge. If you want third age armor, which is the best non-repairing armour in the game, you are really gonna have to work for it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And it sure adds to the excitement of the possibility of getting a 70 million dollar item from a clue scroll. :shock: :thumbsup:

[jedidude77]

I personally doubt it "rares" are only determained bby the PEOPLE/PLAYERS! They're only soo expensive cause every1 wants them. SUPPLY AND DEMAND!

[limpbizkit]

3rd age is still new!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

come on give it till say end of april

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

the signifcene in that is when i finish a gcse course test for cida

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but it will drop as more ppl get lvl 3 clues...and then get the 3rd age

[jonmondalson]

Yes, but there is a difference between rares and discontinued items.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RARE items include super poisoned bronze daggers and dragon chainbodies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Give the 3rd age items a year and they'll cost little more than dragon. Give santa hats, party hats etc a year, and they'll cost a hefty bit more than atm.

[r2-pleasent]

Duke, those calculations you present are valid for any "pseudo-rare" that enters the game; the coefficient on x would obviously be higher if the items were dropped by monsters. However, I'd like to refer back to Dragon Chains in this situation, when the Kalphite Queen was buffed, and became much more difficult to kill. Suddenly, the prices of Dragon Chains just continuously raised, at one point passing Blue Party Hats. And what caused them to finally begin dropping? It wasn't gradual increase of supply; Chains had been rising for over a year, and had a much higher drop rate than any Third Age gear. No, the reason Dragon Chains finally dropped was because Jagex introduced Barrows Armor, an item with better statistics, which was much easier to obtain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Third Age items started at high prices because of their rarity, but they will remain high because of their statistics. As I've stated before, this gear is only slightly worse than Barrows equipment, and has no repair costs. The Kiteshield is the best statistical shield in the game. When you combine such a miniscule drop rate, and items at the top of their class statistically, then a 25% increase of supply this month on an item that could have drop rates as low as 1-2 Sets per day (or even less), is not going to affect the price. It is important to remember, also, that this monthly rate is not constant, it compares the current total amount of Third Age Armor to the new sets being found everyday. Therefore, by your logic, since the drop rate is highest right now, you'd expect to see the prices falling. But, that's obviously not the case, and this increase in supply will be down to under 5% in less than a year.

[Demario]

like d chain.. was cheap thent went so high then cheaper n cheaper..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

wait a few months n thel will be cheaper BUT wont replace fighter torso ;P

[confused]

They're definately rare, but certainly not discontinued.

[andufusthebronze]

don't care, makes it easier for us to get the rares :twisted:

[Doomster]

For "rares" - the discontinued items, there is ZERO new supply, there are losses due to accidents and bans, and there are some that are simply "out of circulation".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comparing them to a real world item, they are like a rare painting from a dead artist, and like that, they could reach a prices where only museums or rich collectors can afford them - pricing them out of the market for all but the elite.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The new TT armours would be closer to rare handmade cars, with astronomic prices and a waiting list, with those at the front of the list selling on at a profit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The prices will hold up until either:

 

 

 

1. It turns out not to be worth the price

 

 

 

2. Those prepared to pay that price all have them

 

 

 

3. Something better turns up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At the moment, any supply of 3rd age items is still "filling the waiting list", though once the "price no object" buyers have all been satisfied, prices would settle, but at the current rate of supply, that could be some time away. As with many things, the price is what the market will stand, but 3rd age poses many problems for merchants, as there is no knowing just when the rich and impatient buyers will tail off.

[hell00omagz]

Well it's actually not new members to 3rd age armor coming in, its members that don't have/want more 3rd age armor to 3rd age armor coming in. Very few people want it simply because very few can afford it, and if you can't afford it then it doesn't matter if you want it or not-you're not getting it. (unless from a clue)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yah i have very rarely seen someone wearing full 3rd age only once

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

by the way your sig is soooo true

 

 

 

Woman = Problmes

[jwrm22]

like every nondiscontinued items, theyll go downhill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

d2h was already in 1 day down from 50mil to only 10m...

[Leesters]

 

 

 

d2h was already in 1 day down from 50mil to only 10m...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thats just a new release of an item that isn't hard to come by.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1) Its an easy drop to get from Choas mental, and more common from KQ then a dragon chain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2) Its not a good item. Its slow, and doesn't hit much harder than a whip.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is typical of all new items that come in that aren't hard to get. Third age items is super hard to get.

[berbatovsky]

Correctumundo. Jagex had guaged public opinion and seen that the masses want unique (or as unique as possible with 900,000 people playing {P2P}) items. We will definetely see more of this sort of thing. I'm ambivalent towards this as it will not effect me as i will not have this much money for a long time if ever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eventually we may see an armour set that costs 1 billion at this point inflation will be imense and the game will die.

[Ts_Stormrage]

 

like every nondiscontinued items, theyll go downhill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

d2h was already in 1 day down from 50mil to only 10m...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

funny you should quote that...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3rd age plate was 10m on first day, now its 50-70m

[miracleman58]

well there are probobly less partsof 3a then there are p hats atm because its so lucky to get it from clues i mean god armour and robins were highly rare but 3a is gonna take the luck of an angle to get some. :ohnoes:

[pulli23]

sorry for not reading everything written here...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

but for me there's 1 "big" difference with real rares and 3rd age:

 

 

 

real rares I expect to rise in price always!

 

 

 

while 3rd age will drop cause there will become many more of them!

[Duke_Freedom]

I agree that this still does not approach the 5% you say that the subscribers base of RuneScape increases a month, but it puts things more into perspective, and allows for a much greater time period in which the price of the 3rd age item will "settle", if at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just for reference, the 5% is based on this site mostly, somewhat extrapolated to now. I won't dispute whether people tried to get clues more actively the past month than they do now, like you say, as I've barely followed anything about the introduction of the Third Age armour. My point does remain that the number will certainly remain higher than the population growth for quite some time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duke, those calculations you present are valid for any "pseudo-rare" that enters the game;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes that's right - all I really wanted to say with it is that I think it is still a bit too early to say that prices have already stabilized.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, I'd like to refer back to Dragon Chains in this situation, when the Kalphite Queen was buffed, and became much more difficult to kill. Suddenly, the prices of Dragon Chains just continuously raised, at one point passing Blue Party Hats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You and I both know Jagex has changed the situation regarding Dragon Chains multiple times throughout the history, which resulted in both price drops and (mostly) price rises. Jagex prevented Dragon Chains from having a normal price development in the first place. This even led to some merchants investing in dragon chains at some point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No, the reason Dragon Chains finally dropped was because Jagex introduced Barrows Armor, an item with better statistics, which was much easier to obtain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And indeed, the ultimate downfall for pseudo-rares usually happens when Jagex intervenes by implementing new and better substitutes for the pseudo-rare.

[Nightryder3]

the thing is , no matter what there will be less p hats, because you can get 3rd age in treasure trails, remember when chains came out? they were higher then p hats and now they are everywhere, because evryday more are brought in the world of RuneScape, partyhats only decrease in amount because people quit , or die with it or something and no new ones are recieved from treaseure trails because you can't get them from trails :)

[swampjedi]

I'd like to suggest that this be moved to Debates.

[E_D_G_E_1039]

Consider how long they've been out. Prices are not stable.

[Uula]

like every nondiscontinued items, theyll go downhill.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Err... Like ranger boots?

 

 

 

AFAIK they've only been rising in price for the last few years :-s

[123Yourgone]

Whoever said the drop rate is 1 in 10,000 thats a load of bull, drop rate for left half off a greater demon is like 1 in 16,000, i have a feeling off a skeleton your looking at something more like 1 in 90,000.

[Ts_Stormrage]

Whoever said the drop rate is 1 in 10,000 thats a load of bull, drop rate for left half off a greater demon is like 1 in 16,000, i have a feeling off a skeleton your looking at something more like 1 in 90,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 in 16k...

 

 

 

That is, once you get a lvl 3 clue, and went through all 6 of them, 0,00625%.

 

 

 

Imagine that you can do a clue every 2 hours (including killing the creatures to actually get the clues), then youd need to be 32,000 hours at it (or 1,333 days, or 4 years).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That, or 32k players are currently chasing a clue, and ONE SINGLE 3rd age item is released every hour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The point is clear... They are probably the hardest item to optain in the entire game...

 

 

 

How will this affect its price? read my earlier posts for my analysis.

[swampjedi]

Then in a few weeks, they'll be much less rare than party hats. In a few months, even more "common".